偷看別人的答案=「集體失智」？
如果你想知道一個罐子裡到底有多少顆軟糖，那麼你應該問問你的朋友們，然後對他們的答案取平均值，因為集體的猜測往往比個人的猜測更準確，只是不能讓他們偷看別人的答案。一項研究表明，社交影響會左右人們的估算，讓集體答案不再準確。這項研究發表在《美國國家科學院院刊》（Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences）上。
群體智慧實際上是一種統計學現象：當估計值的樣本數量足夠大時，其中的極端值會相互抵消，讓結果更接近實際值。但是心理學和統計學不能混為一談，了解小夥伴的想法並不會讓你變得更聰明。
歐洲的科學家讓自願者對一些統計數據進行估計，比如瑞士的人口密度。每個人都有5次猜測的機會，科學家向其中一些人展示了同伴的答案，而另一些人則純粹單幹。結果發現，看過別人答案的人往往會作出二次猜測，這……[查看全文]
Wisdom of Crowds Withers with Peeks
If you want to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, you should ask your friends. Then average their answers. Because a group guess is often more accurate than that of any one individual. Just don’t let them peek at each other’s responses. Because a new study shows that social influence can sway people’s estimates and render the crowd incorrect. The work appears in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Crowd wisdom is actually a statistical phenomenon. Gather enough estimates and the wild guesses cancel each other out, bringing you closer to the answer. But psychology and statistics don’t mix. And knowing what your peers think doesn’t make you any smarter.
European scientists asked volunteers to estimate statistics like the population density of Switzerland. Each person got five guesses. Some were shown their peers』 answers and others weren’t. Turns out that seeing others』 estimates led to a lot of second guessing. Which...[full transcript]
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