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以下是今年和整個十年中值得關注的數字石油和天然氣世界的五大趨勢。
對未來做出預測是一個長期而歷史悠久的做法。但是做出預測真的很難，尤其是關於未來。相反，這裡有五個關鍵的數字趨勢，在我看來，幾乎勢不可擋，以數字未來在石油和天然氣佔據主導力量。
碳
商業界，當然在歐洲、北美和亞洲，現在非常認真地對待脫碳問題，我相信在未來幾年裡，將加快這一領域的努力和投資。資本市場越來越多地詢問碳減排活動以及碳基資源閒置的潛力。投資和主權財富基金將進一步剝離石油和天然氣資產，以減少風險敞口。石油和天然氣行業在資本市場上的重要性將繼續縮小，隨著科技等其它行業在領先指數中佔據主導地位，其相關性將不斷下降。
幸運的是，早期的脫碳結果非常有希望，大型石油和天然氣公司將自信地宣布他們打算在本十年內成為碳中和。解決方案大部分在於新的工業技術，該技術可以捕獲碳排放、從大氣中提取碳或收緊洩漏的設備。節省的很大一部分來自使用數字鏡頭重新構想石油和天然氣商業和工業流程。
我預計，新項目或技術採購的投資投入將越來越多地包括脫碳結果以及安全方面的側改進。投資小組將支持那些對脫碳目標表現出敏感性的建議。數字項目將被視為清潔技術，因為數位技術對碳的影響，通過減少駕駛，使資產更加自主，以及消除重工。面臨風險的商業模式是那些將碳排放等外部因素視為無法解決或必要的罪惡的商業模式。
運輸
向電力運輸的轉變正在進行中，並將在未來十年內加速發展。下一代汽車客戶看起來每天花7-8個小時盯著小屏幕而不是擋風玻璃。排名前6位的汽車製造商（通用、福特、本田、豐田、大眾和現代）都宣布了主要計劃，以實施產品電氣化。豐田的目標是到2025年，汽車銷量佔全部汽車銷量的50%，成為電動品種。到2023年，通用汽車將在全球銷售20款電動汽車。特斯拉已經每年銷售35萬輛3型，並即將在中國和歐洲開設新的製造工廠。本田宣布，它打算到2023年在歐洲只銷售電動和混合動力汽車。
美元化
美國外交政策的不可預測性，美國退出全球貿易論壇，美國政治體系對全球銀行業的束縛，美國實施的制裁和關稅的影響，以及其他經濟體的不斷增強，都造成了有利於全球貿易去美元化的條件。為金融交易創造一種可行的、被廣泛接受的加密貨幣。不僅金融系統的在職者正在試驗新的貨幣概念，而且各國現在都公開承諾接受加密貨幣。俄羅斯石油和天然氣供應商已經就完全以盧布結算的（要求）合同達成一致，這些合同允許這些合同在美國銀行系統之外結算。一旦市場降低替代貨幣的石油和天然氣交易的風險，轉向與在美國運營的全球銀行毫無聯繫的加密貨幣的能力就變得容易得多。並且非常吸引希望逃避美國制裁壓力的產油國（委內瑞拉、伊朗、伊拉克、俄羅斯......
試想一下，中國將如何成為第一個向新貨幣機制轉變的市場力量，而不必首先將其金融體系與世界完全整合。這就像無線電信如何超越有線世界一樣。面臨風險的業務模式包括交易、財務後臺和風險管理。
數字孿生
高度複雜的真實世界系統的完全功能數字版本繼續在道路上運行。在天氣預報業務中，我們可以最清楚地看到這一趨勢。天氣系統的數字孿生需要龐大的數據收集傳感器網絡、大量數據、大量的並行計算周期來處理場景，並且所有系統都實時運行。今天，在我步行到家之前，我的氣象應用程式準確地預報了1：30的降雨，果然，雨在預測時間的幾分鐘內就開始了。我的地圖應用現在顯示道路擁堵（基於手機，似乎沒有移動），並很可能能夠預測交通。
許多物理世界系統都在等待他們的數字結對。很少有石油公司（如果有的話）能夠以最基本的方式將上遊、中遊和下遊資產聯繫起來。例如，石油生產除了最猛烈的價格信號之外，沒有任何反應，即便如此，反應也遲鈍。許多油井的經濟效益低於全部成本，只有在遭受痛苦的損失之後，老闆們才會削減開支。構建像石油和天然氣一樣複雜的供應鏈的真實數字版本的構建基塊已經到位——雲計算、數據處理、機器學習。謹慎資產的數字版本現在司空見慣，而創建更大範圍擴展版本的激勵將證明是壓倒性的。
日常工作
長期、穩定和穩定的石油和天然氣工作時代讓位於永久性調整和動蕩。可以肯定的是，這部分是由於未來對化石燃料需求的不確定性。但是，這種趨勢在亞馬遜等公司如何將變更部署到其業務中（每年更新 5000 萬次）以及特斯拉如何在一夜之間更新車輛方面顯而易見。緩慢而又及時，讓位於快速敏捷。
未來將少得多的日常工作，在這麼多的石油和天然氣角色的特點。日常工作仍然存在，但將由數字工具和代理執行。工作將首先根據他們需要的自動化級別進行定義，然後將人的角色摺疊起來（與今天相反）。特斯拉的機器人汽車工廠展示了這在製造中是如何工作的。人工智慧、機器學習和機器人系統作為工作輔助工具尤其能夠推動石油和天然氣工作，因為這項工作是技術和分析性的，依賴於數學，較少受到獨立的人類判斷的驅動。
今天，進入石油和天然氣工作領域的人對該行業的創新毫無準備。尚未充分考慮數字對該領域實際工作的影響大量的石油和天然氣專業人員將需要提高他們的技能，以保持他們的相關性，或成為這一波變革的相關者。
結論
還有很多趨勢需要關注——例如，增材製造及其對資產管理的影響
譯文：
Five Digital Oil and Gas Trends to Watch in 2020 – Geoffrey Cann
Here are five trends in the world of digital oil and gas worth watching this year and throughout the decade.
It’s been a long-standing and time honoured practice to make predictions about the future. But as Yogi Berra, a famous and oft-quoted New York Yankees catcher and manager, observed, 「Making predictions is really hard, especially about the future」. Instead, here are five key digital trends that look pretty much unstoppable to me, and feature as the bright white lines on any of my roadmaps to a digital future in oil and gas.
Carbon
The business world, certainly in Europe, North America, and Asia, now treats decarbonisation very seriously, and I believe will accelerate efforts and investments in this arena for the next several years.
Capital markets increasingly ask about carbon abatement activities and the potential of stranded carbon-based resources. Investment and sovereign wealth funds will further their divestment of oil and gas assets to reduce exposure. The importance of the oil and gas industry on capital markets will continue to shrink, sinking in relevance as other sectors, like technology, rise to dominate the leading indices.
Fortunately, early decarbonisation results are sufficiently promising that large oil and gas companies will confidently declare their intent to become carbon neutral this decade. Much of the solution lies in new industrial technology that does things like capture carbon emissions, withdraw carbon from the atmosphere, or tighten leaky equipment. A very significant portion of savings comes from reimagining oil and gas commercial and industrial processes with a digital lens.
I anticipate that investment pitches for new projects or technology purchases will increasingly include decarbonisation outcomes along side improvements in safety. Investment panels will favour those proposals that display sensitivity to decarbonisation goals. Digital projects will be seen as clean tech because of the impact that digital has on carbon, by reducing driving around, by making assets more autonomous, and by eliminating rework.
Business models at risk are those that treat externalities like carbon emissions as unsolvable or a necessary evil.
Transportation
The shift to electric transportation is now underway and will pick up steam in the decade ahead. Next generation car customers look like they are spending 7-8 hours per day staring at small screens rather than windscreens.
The top 6 automakers (GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai), have all announced major programs to electrify their offerings. Toyota aims for 50% of all vehicle sales by 2025 to be of the electric variety. GM will sell 20 electric vehicle models globally by 2023. Tesla is already selling 350,000 Model 3s per year, and is about to open new manufacturing facilities in China and Europe. Honda has announced its intent to sell only electric and hybrid vehicles in Europe by 2023.
I see electric cars as a new kind of digital platform. Tesla, for example, releases new software and features for its vehicles in the same way that Apple upgrades its operating system in the wee hours. In time, all automobiles will behave this way, provided the manufacturers rethink their vehicle architectures to be more like phones and less like industrial equipment. Doing so enables vehicle sharing, self driving vehicles, evergreen interfaces, third party innovation, and vehicle-landscape integration with smart cities. The Ford F-150, for example, has over 150 million lines of code in it, but the user interface is pretty blah compared to a $500 phone.
The fight for the fuel tank is now underway. Ford and GM have both announced the construction of enormous networks of charge stations, taking them into direct competition with fuel retailing. As their vehicles become smarter, they will own the customer relationship in a way that fuel companies cannot, all enabled by digital technology. Power utilities with their existing customer systems and grid systems are also keen for the digital car. Real estate operators who have the parking spots will also want a piece of the action.
Business models now at risk include traditional fuel retailing, vehicle servicing and repair, auto insurance, driver training, and vehicle financing.
De-dollarization
The unpredictability of US foreign policy, the US withdrawal from global trading forums, the stranglehold that the US political system has on global banking, the impacts of US-imposed sanctions and tariffs, and the rising might of other economies, creates conditions that favour de-dollarisation of global trade.
There will be no let-up in the drive to create a viable, widely accepted cryptocurrency for financial transactions, with the side effect of de-dollarisation of global trade.
Not only are the incumbents in the financial system experimenting with new currency concepts, but nations are now coming out in the open with their intent to embrace cryptocurrencies. Russian oil and gas suppliers are already agreeing (demanding) contracts that are solely in rubles, which allows those contracts to settle outside the US banking system. Once the market has derisked oil and gas trading in alternative currencies, the ability to shift to a crypto currency that has zero ties to global banks operating in the US becomes much easier. And very appealing to oily nations wishing to evade US sanctions pressures (Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Russia…)
It’s no surprise to me that the US political system has quickly rebelled against Facebook’s attempt to get in front of this significant shift. Facebook is easy enough to demonize, but the threats to the established global financial order and power systems are much more profound.
Try to imagine how China will be the first market power to shift to a new currency mechanism without having to first fully integrate its financial system with the world. It will be like how wireless telecoms leapfrogged the wired world.
Business models at risk are trading, financial back offices, and risk management.
Digital twin
Fully functioning digital versions of highly complex real world systems continue to make in-roads.
We can see this trend most plainly in the weather forecasting business. A digital twin of the weather system requires vast networks of data gathering sensors, enormous amounts of data, lots of parallel computing cycles to crunch the scenarios, and all operating in real time. Today, ahead of my walk to the chemist, my weather app forecasted rain at 1:30 precisely, and sure enough, the rain started within a few minutes of the predicted time. My mapping apps now show road congestion (based on cell phones that do not appear to be moving), and may well be able to predict traffic.
Many physical world systems await their digital twinning. Few oil companies, if any, are able to link their upstream, midstream and downstream assets in any but the most rudimentary ways. Oil production, for example, does not respond to anything but the most violent price signals, and even then, the response is sluggish. Many oil wells run at economics below their full costs, and only after incurring painful losses will bosses cut back.
The building blocks for building true digital versions of supply chains as complex as oil and gas are in place—cloud computing, data handling, machine learning. Digital versions of discreet assets are now commonplace, and the incentive to create greater more expansive versions will prove overwhelming.
Jobs and work
The era of long term, stable and consistent oil and gas jobs gives way to permanent adjustment and upheaval. In part this is driven by the uncertainty in the future demand for fossil fuels, to be sure. But this trend is clearly visible in how companies like Amazon deploy changes into their business (50m updates a year), and how Tesla updates its vehicles overnight. Slow and stately is giving way to fast and agile.
The jobs of the future will have much less of the routine work that features in so many oil and gas roles. The routine work still exists, but will be carried out by digital tools and agents. Jobs will be defined first for the level of automation that they need, and the human roles will then be folded in (the reverse of today). Tesla’s robotic car plants show how this works in manufacturing. Oil and gas work is particularly enabled by artificial intelligence, machine learning and robot systems as job aids since the work is technical and analytical, reliant on math, and less driven by independent human judgement.
Someone entering the oil and gas work world today is unprepared for the innovations coming to the industry. Students exiting oil and gas education programming in 2020 are most likely learning a curriculum defined two decades ago. Digital impacts on the real jobs in the field have yet to be fully considered in education forums (I hear this consistently from students who buy my book and greet me at conferences).
Vast numbers of oil and gas professionals will need to upgrade their skills to maintain their relevance or be victims of this wave of change.
Conclusions
There are plenty more trends out there to keep an eye on — additive manufacturing and its impact on asset management, for example — but these five should get your Board conversation started.
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