The initial economic impact of Japan's earthquake and tsunami was obvious in first-day newscasts showing crumpled buildings and entire towns being swept away.
在第一天顯示建築物倒塌、城鎮被完全衝毀的電視畫面中，日本地震和海嘯產生初期經濟影響顯而易見。
Today, displaced or injured workers, damaged factories, crippled infrastructure and an electricity shortage spurred by a nuclear-power crisis still disrupt production.
今天，由於工人轉移或受傷、廠房受損、基礎設施癱瘓和核電危機造成電力短缺，生產仍舊無法恢復正常。
Much of that capacity will be restored in time. But some effects will remain as manufacturers─stung by supply shortages over the last month─diversify their operations away from the island nation. Among those looking offshore: Japanese companies themselves.
假以時日，這些產能將有很大一部分得到恢復。但某些影響仍將存在，因為製造企業在過去一個月感受到供應短缺之痛，要將其營業活動從日本這個島國向其他地方分散。把目光投往海外的公司當中，也包括日本本國企業。
"Japan's earthquake and tsunami have heightened its risk profile," says Heizo Takenaka, the country's economics minister in the early 2000s. "That is likely to prompt more companies to move factories overseas."
曾在世紀初擔任日本經濟財政大臣的竹中平藏(Heizo Takenaka)說，地震和海嘯已經強化了日本的風險形象，這有可能促使更多公司把工廠轉移到海外。
Japan, of course, has made an art of bearing the unbearable. The country's recovery from the 1995 Kobe earthquake was more rapid that most experts had predicted.
不用說，日本已經十分擅長於承受不可承受之重。這個國家從1995年阪神地震復甦的過程，比多數專家的預測都更加迅速。
But the scale of the March 11 disaster has been far greater. Mr. Takenaka estimates that Japan lost about 5% of its capital stock in the most recent quake, compared with 2% from the Kobe temblor.
但今年3月11日的災難慘烈得多。竹中平藏估計，日本在最近的這次地震中損失了大約5%的股本，而阪神地震造成的損失相比之下只有2%。
The radiation spreading from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant is unprecedented. And Japan is less able to rebound than it once was: Its debt load is heavier, its Asian competitors are more aggressive and its population is shrinking. New constraints from the earthquake, such as rolling blackouts expected during peak summer and winter demand this year, add to the pain.
受損的福島第一核電站向周圍散發的核輻射是史無前例的。而且日本經濟的復甦難度也比過去更大，因為它的債務負擔更加沉重，其亞洲競爭對手更加進取，而日本的人口數量也在不斷縮減。地震產生的新制約因素更是雪上加霜，比如今年夏季和冬季用電高峰期預計將出現的輪流停電。
Japan's Renesas Electronics Corp., one of the world's leading makers of microprocessors, already outsources production of about 8% of its chips. Before the earthquake, Renesas planned to increase that to 25% by 2013, most to foundries outside Japan. Now the company plans to exceed that target. Renesas says it is in talks to have microcontroller chips for cars, now all made in Japan, made at a Singapore plant owned by U.S.-based chip maker Globalfoundries Inc. Renesas fears losing its 40% market share among the world's top auto makers, who are scouring the globe for alternate supply sources.
日本瑞薩電子(Renesas Electronics Corp.)是世界上最重要的微處理器生產商之一，它已經有大約8%的晶片為外包生產。地震之前，瑞薩計劃在2013年之前將這個比例提高至25%，其中多數都是外包給日本以外的工廠。現在它打算將這個比例進一步提高。瑞薩說，它準備把目前全部在日本生產的汽車微控晶片交給美國晶片製造商Globalfoundries Inc.在新加坡的一家工廠生產。世界頂級汽車生產商都在放眼全球尋找其他供貨源，瑞薩擔心失去自己在這些廠商當中40%的市場份額。
The most exposed Japanese companies, naturally, are those closest to the epicenter of the earthquake in Japan's northeastern Tohoku region.
受影響最大的日本企業，當然是離東北町震中最近的那些公司。
Horio Seisakusho Co., a diversified manufacturer based in heavily damaged Ishinomaki City, is a 52-worker company that boasts a 30% market share in optical units that read Blu-ray and other digital videodiscs. The company, which has two electronic-component plants in China, says it doesn't have immediate plans to shift more production overseas.
堀尾製作所(Horio Seisakusho Co.)是一家多元化的製造企業，總部位於遭到嚴重破壞的石卷市。該公司有52名工人，其生產的用於讀取藍光和其他數碼影碟的光學元件佔據著30%的市場份額。該公司在中國有兩座電子元件工廠。它說，暫時沒有打算將更多生產轉移到海外。
But Horio Seisakusho is feeling pressure and says it isn't alone. "There are a lot small of companies like us in the area, and some owners tell me they're concerned about losing chunks of business forever if they remain behind in delivery schedules," President Masahiko Horio says.
但堀尾製作所感受到了壓力，並且說它不是唯一的一家。公司總裁堀尾正彥(Masahiko Horio)說，這個地區有很多像我們一樣的小公司，一些企業主跟我說，他們擔心，如果其交貨時間一直落後於人，可能就會永遠失去一大筆業務。
Local officials echo that. "There's a risk companies that shut or suspended production may get cut out of the business if they can't fill orders now," says Masahiro Ito, an economic-development official in Miyagi Prefecture, where the quake hit hardest.
當地官員也是這麼說。在受地震打擊最嚴重的宮城縣，負責經濟發展的官員Masahiro Ito說，關門或停產的公司如果無法馬上交付訂貨，它們可能就再也攬不到生意。
Shifting production can be difficult, especially for sophisticated items that rely on a concentration of skills, special tools and capability that will be hard to replicate, says Karl Roberts, co-head of the high-tech practice at management-consulting firm AlixPartners. But nearly every company affected by supply disruptions will develop long-term plans to reduce risk. "Boards of directors are going to require that companies rethink this," Mr. Roberts says.
管理諮詢公司AlixPartners的高科技業務聯席主管羅伯茨(Kark Roberts)說，轉移生產可能很難，尤其是涉及到那些依賴密集技術、特殊工具以及難以複製的產能時。但幾乎所有受供應中斷影響的公司都將制定長期計劃以降低風險。羅伯茨說，各家公司的董事會將要求公司對此多加考慮。
Many pillars of Japan Inc. speak openly about their "public commitment," a decades-old social contract that companies based in Japan should produce in the country. But even before the earthquake, that contract was crumbling.
許多身為日本行業支柱的公司對其「公共義務」直言不諱，這種義務是有數十年歷史的社會契約，即要求日本公司在日本國內進行生產。但即便在地震之前，這種契約也在分崩離析。
Nissan Motor Co., where four of the nine board seats are held by non-Japanese, already relied on Japan for just 25% of its auto production and has committed to move more car making outside Japan. The company last year shifted output of its Micra subcompact to Thailand and elsewhere overseas from Kanagawa, outside Tokyo. Nissan plans in 2013 to move production of its Rogue crossover sport-utility vehicle to Canton, Miss., from Kyushu, Japan's main southern island. After the quake, managers signaled they will step up efforts to shift output and sourcing abroad. "We first look to our Tohoku suppliers who can shift to other factories, then to other suppliers in Japan," Nissan Chief Operating Officer Toshiyuki Shiga says. "But if that doesn't work, we will start asking around for overseas suppliers."
日產汽車(Nissan Motor Co.)的汽車生產僅有25%在日本國內進行，並承諾將更多的汽車生產業務轉到日本以外。該公司九個董事會席位中有四席為非日本裔人士佔據。日產去年將其Micra超小型汽車的生產從東京附近的神奈川轉到泰國和其他海外地區。日產計劃2013年將Rogue跨界運動型多用途車的生產從日本南部的九州島轉移到美國密西西比州的坎頓（Canton）。地震過後，管理人員表示將加快生產和採購的海外轉移。日產首席運營長志賀俊之（Toshiyuki Shiga）說，我們先是指望東北部地區那些能將生產轉移至其它工廠的供應商，然後又聯繫了日本其它地區的供應商。如果這都不起作用，我們將開始到處打聽海外供應商的情況。
Nissan said April 1 that it would temporarily import V6 engines from a plant in Decherd, Tenn., to replace lost output from a factory in quake-stricken Iwaki, Japan, at least temporarily. Nissan said last week that it would reopen the Iwaki plant next Monday, but initially at only half of its previous output.
日產公司4月1日說，為了彌補遭地震破壞的日本磐城（Iwaki）一家工廠損失的產能，該公司將暫時從美國田納西州進口V6發動機，短期內至少是這樣。日產公司上周說磐城工廠將在本周一重新開工，但開始一段時間內產能只有此前的一半。
"I think there are still some areas where Japanese industry should consider moving production overseas," says Yoshio Ishizaka, a former Toyota Motor Corp. executive who is an adviser to the auto maker.
曾在豐田公司擔任高管的石阪義雄（音，Yoshio Ishizaka）說，我認為還有一些地區的日本企業應該考慮將生產轉移至海外。石阪現在給汽車廠商擔任顧問。
Industry observers say Toyota may close one or more older facilities in Japan. The company says it doesn't have such plans. But Toyota's prequake domestic capacity was nearly one million cars above its commitment to keeping domestic auto production at a minimum of three million vehicles, says Koji Endo, an automotive analyst at Tokyo-based Advanced Research Japan.
行業觀察人士說，豐田汽車可能會關閉日本國內一家甚至更多陳舊的廠房。但豐田汽車表示該公司沒有這樣的計劃。總部位於東京的Advanced Research Japan的汽車行業分析師遠藤浩二（Koji Endo）說，地震發生前，豐田汽車的國內產能已經超過其承諾的最低300萬輛的底線，超出近100萬輛。
Toyota completed construction on its newest, and 17th, assembly plant in central Miyagi prefecture less than a month before the earthquake. The company immediately suspended production but had planned to reopen the plant later this month. A 7.1-magnitude temblor late Thursday forced the company to reassess those plans.
地震發生前不到一個月，豐田汽車建成了位於宮城縣中部的組裝工廠（該公司的第17家，也是最新的一家）。該公司隨後立即暫停了生產，但計劃本月晚些時候讓這座工廠重新開工。上周四晚上發生的7.1級餘震迫使豐田重新評估那些計劃。
Even Japanese companies far from the quake's epicenter and the public eye, dedicated to relief efforts, are considering moving business abroad.
即使那些遠離震中和公眾視線且致力於救災工作的日本企業也考慮將業務轉移到海外。
Hundreds of miles from the quake-stricken region, on Kyushu, Nakayama Iron Works Ltd. assembles rock crushers, belt conveyors and asphalt-recycling machinery for building roads. The 103-year-old, 146-employee company is looking to suppliers in China, Malaysia and Taiwan, where it already obtains some components, to fill the gap in critical parts no longer flowing from northern Japan.
離地震災區數百公裡遠的九州島有一家名叫中山鋼鐵廠（Nakayama Iron Works Ltd）的公司，該公司主要為築路業組裝巖石破碎機、皮帶輸送機和瀝青回收機械。這家有著103年歷史、146名員工的企業現在指望中國大陸、馬來西亞和臺灣的供應商來補充其無法再從日本北部地區獲得的關鍵零部件。中山鋼鐵廠已經從上述地區的供應商獲得了一些部件。
"We've sent spare generators for the relief effort and offered to house evacuees on our premises," says Hiroshi Nakayama, the company's third-generation president. "But we need to consider using more foreign components if the shortages continue."
這家鋼鐵廠第三代總裁中山博（Hiroshi Nakayama）說，我們已經將閒置的發電機用於救災工作，並在我們的廠房內安置災民。但如果短缺現象持續，我們也要考慮使用更多的外國零部件。