原創 博鰲亞洲論壇 博鰲亞洲論壇 收錄於話題#博鰲亞洲論壇研究院4個
在博鰲亞洲論壇於2020年12月3日舉辦的亞歐合作對話峰會專題分會「後疫情時代的全球化進展」上，瑞銀資產管理公司全球主權市場策略及諮詢主任卡斯特利博士指出，全球化不是一個線性過程，它總是有起有落。2008年和2009年的金融危機結束了之前的超全球化，取而代之的是「慢球化（slowbalization）」。自金融危機以來，國際貿易、資本和人口跨境流動增長明顯放緩。民族主義的概念、中美兩國脫鉤的概念開始流行起來。「保護主義」已不再是全球政治中的禁忌詞彙，而被各國政府用來保護本國經濟。
Dr Massimiliano Castelli, UBS Asset Management Head of Strategy and Advice for Global Sovereign Markets, pointed out that globalization is not a linear process and it always goes up and down. The period of hyper-globalization ended with the great financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and it was replaced called 「slowbalization」. Since the great financial crisis, growth of international trades, capital flows, and immigration slowed significantly. The notion of nationalisms started blowing around the world and the concept of the U.S. China decoupling gained ground. Protection is no longer a taboo word in global politics, but used by governments to protect their economies.
然而，卡斯特利博士澄清道，政治因素固然重要，但它不是「慢球化」背後的根本因素。他進一步補充說，過去十年，技術改變了全球經濟的結構，資產從有形資產變向無形資產，跨境流動的主體由有形的貨物變成了無形的知識和數據。2020年由疫情引發的閉鎖進一步加速了無形經濟的崛起。卡斯特利博士相信，全球化會將數據的全球化推向了一個新的高度。數據將成為全球化的下一個關鍵因素，位於人、資本、商品之後，進一步推動全球化向前發展。
However, Dr. Castelli clarified that although politics is important, it is not the fundamental factor behind the 「slowbalization」. He further added that, technology has changed the structure of the global economy over the past decade with a shift from tangible to intangible assets, so that people do not need to move goods across border but knowledge and data can move cross-borders intangibly. The lock down of 2020 inspired by the pandemic had further accelerated the rise of the intangible economy. Dr. Castelli believed that the globalization also pushes the globalization of data to the next level. Then data will be the next key factor for globalization, next to the people, capital, and goods, and further push globalization forward from this point.
然後，卡斯特利博士闡述道，在解釋企業績效方面，全球因素的比重自2008、2009年以來持續下滑；而國家因素對小型經濟體影響較大，無論其屬於新興經濟體還是發達經濟體。他認為，新型全球化中的贏家可能是以下幾類：擁有強大制度、能夠實現良好的社會共識、避免政治分裂的國家；受到周邊大型經濟體（如中國、歐洲或美國）保護的小型經濟體；擁有健康財政狀況，能夠在嚴重的危機中支撐國內經濟的國家。而依賴低附加值出口的國家可能成為最大的輸家。
Dr. Castelli then elaborated that the importance of global factors in explaining the performance of corporations has been falling since 2008-09, and that the country effects are larger for smaller economies, both emerging and developed. He proposed that winner countries are countries with strong institutions that can bring good social consensus and avoid political fragmentation, or small economies which enjoy the protection of nearby larger markets, or countries with healthy finance that can support domestic economy in the most devastating crisis. However, exporting countries with low value added might be the big losers.
卡斯泰利博士指出，一個可能的結果是區域化。然而，目前還不清楚新的區域將以何種形式和在何種機制下建立。並且，在資本、人員和數據的自由流動方面，尚不清楚美國、歐盟和中國這三大區域之間會出現何種程度的保護主義。
Dr. Castelli pointed out that one possible outcome could be increasing regionalization. However, it is unclear in which form and under which institutional set up the new regional block will organize. And it is not clear how much protectionisms will be there between the three major blocks – US, EU and China, in terms of free flow of capital, people, and data.
圖片來源：pexels
亞洲浪潮，博鰲視野
立足亞洲 面向世界
傳遞論壇最新動態 促進亞洲深度合作
全球重要對話的傳達者 亞洲共同發展的瞭望者
原標題：《雙語|瑞銀資產管理公司卡斯特利博士預測數據全球化》
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