原文譯文
Winter is not coming
冬天不再來
The northern-hemisphere winter of 2019-20 was the warmest ever on land
2019- 2020年北半球的冬天是有史以來最溫暖的
Temperatures stayed roughly the same from November to March
從11月到3月，氣溫基本保持不變
1. THE MOST commonly cited risks of climate change are natural disasters: fiercer wildfires and hurricanes, bigger floods and longer droughts. But one of the most striking recent effects of global warming has been unusually mild weather in many parts of the world.
談及氣候變化的風險，最常提及的就是自然災害：更猛烈的野火、颶風、更大的洪水、更長時間的乾旱。但最近全球變暖最顯著的影響之一，就是世界許多地區變得異常溫暖。
2. The northern-hemisphere winter that ended on March 20th was the second-warmest since records began, and the warmest ever on land. The anomaly was biggest in Europe and Asia, where average temperatures from December to February were 3.2°C (5.8°F) and 3.1°C above the average from 1951-80, and 0.8°C and 0.7°C above those continents』 previous record highs. After a normal autumn, temperatures stayed close to their November levels for months. In Boston, where daily lows in January tend tohoveraround -6°C, the averageminimumthis January was 0°C; for Tokyo the figures were 0°C and 5°C. By local standards, thebalmiestwinter of all was in Russia. Moscow’s average daily low in January was -2°C, far from the customary -13°C.
3月20日結束的北半球冬季是有記錄以來的第二大暖冬，也是陸地上有史以來的第一大暖冬。歐洲和亞洲的異常最大，從12月到2月的平均溫度比1951- 1980年的平均溫度高3.2°C(5.8°F)和3.1°C，比之前的歷史最高記錄高0.8°C和0.7°C。正常的秋季過後，後面幾個月的溫度都與11月的一致。在波士頓，1月份的日最低氣溫往往徘徊在-6°C左右，而今年1月份的平均最低氣溫為0°C；東京1月份日最低氣溫為0°C和平均最低氣溫為5°C。按照地區的標準，最暖和的冬天出現在俄羅斯。莫斯科1月份的平均每日最低氣溫為零下2攝氏度，遠低於通常的零下13攝氏度。
3. The winter-that-wasn’t of 2019-20 is not yet a new normal. The main factor determining the severity of northern winters is the 「Arctic oscillation」: the relative pressure of Arctic and sub-tropical air. When pressure is higher in the Arctic, cold air from the North Pole pushes south, bringing harsh, dry winters to many places. When pressure is higher towards the sub-tropics, warm air pushes northwards,hemming incold air around the pole. These two patternsflip backand forth irregularly.
並不是說，2019-2020的冬天還不是一個新常態。決定北方冬季嚴寒程度的主要因素是「北極振蕩」：北極和亞熱帶空氣的相對壓力。當北極的氣壓升高時，來自北極的冷空氣就會向南推進，給許多地方帶來嚴酷乾燥的冬季。當副熱帶地區的氣壓較高時，暖空氣向北推動，在北極周圍形成冷空氣。這兩種模式不定期地來回變換。
4. For reasons that are not yet clear, pressure in the sub-tropics this year was much stronger than in the Arctic. And researchers have not yet determined how rising temperatures affect the Arctic oscillation. Until a few years ago, climate models tended to show pressure in the Arctic strengthening, reducing the amount of warming during winter at temperate northernlatitudes. The latest models find the reverse.
今年亞熱帶地區的氣壓要比北極地區大得多，原因未知。研究人員還沒有確定氣溫上升如何影響北極振蕩。直到幾年前，氣候模型還顯示北極地區的壓力在增強，這降低了溫帶北緯地區冬季變暖的程度。而新模型顯示的情況正好相反。
5. However, climate change is still responsible foranomalieslike this one. At the average global temperature in 1950, a winter this mild was all but impossible. In today’s climate, suchreprievesfrom the cold should occur once every 11 years. And if global warming continues on its currenttrajectory, winters like this year’s could become standard within a few decades.
然而，氣候變化仍然是造成這種反常現象的主要原因。在1950年的全球平均氣溫下，這樣溫和的冬天是不可能有的。而在如今的氣候條件下，冬天這樣的溫度會每11年發生一次。如果全球變暖持續，像今年這樣的冬天可能在幾十年內成為正常。
6. Mild winters offer benefits. Heating is cheaper, flu seasons are shorter and fewer people die overall. But problems mount as well. Without hard frosts, pests can survive and multiply to attack crops more harshly. Warmer winters are usually wetter, changing snowfall patterns. This can shrink the snowpack that supplies rivers, and cause floods. Even people whobemoanfrigid winters may miss them if they vanish.
溫和的冬天有好處：供暖更便宜，流感季節更短，總體死亡人數更少。但問題也層出不窮。沒有嚴酷的霜凍，害蟲就能生存並繁殖，從而危害農作物；暖冬通常比較潮溼，降雪模式也在變化；這可能會導致供應河流的積雪減少，並引發洪水。如果冬天消失了，即使是那些憎恨寒冬的人也會想念冬天的。
精讀解析
篇章結構
P1：背景：但最近全球變暖，許多地區出現了異常溫和的天氣。
P2：北半球冬季出現暖冬。
P3：北半球冬季嚴寒程度的決定因素：北極振蕩。
P4：今年亞熱帶地區的氣壓要比北極地區大得多，導致暖冬出現。
P5：氣候變化是暖冬出現的原因，如果全球變暖持續，暖冬就不再成為異常現象。
P6：暖冬有好處，也有壞處，但是如果暖冬持續，人們還是會想念寒冬的。
重點單詞
hover/'h v / vi. (鳥等)盤旋；(人)徘徊, 走來走去；猶豫, 搖擺不定
【短語】
hover over停留於, 盤旋於；威脅
【例句】
The dog hovers around the kitchen door every mealtime.
每到吃飯的時間，那隻狗就守在廚房門邊。
minimum/'m n m m/ n. 最小量；最小值；最小化；最低限度adj. 最小的；最低的
【例句】
They want to spend a minimum of both time and money.
他們想花費最少的時間和錢。
balmy/'bɑ m / adj. (指空氣)暖和的;溫暖的；芳香的;能止痛的;如香酯的
【例句】
The Virgin Islands, located in the Caribbean, have a balmy climate.
位於加勒比海的維京群島氣候溫和。
Arctic oscillation北極振蕩（縮寫：AO），又稱北極濤動，是指北極的氣壓與北半球中緯度地帶的氣壓呈現反向變動關係的現象。此現象描述於1998年由美國華盛頓大學的氣象學者大衛·湯普生（David W. J. Thompson）與約翰·瓦拉斯提出。相似的現象在南極與南半球中緯度地帶亦有觀測到，稱為南極振蕩（縮寫：AAO，多加一個A以與北極振蕩區別）。另外，在北極振蕩說被提出之前，於1920年代即觀測到的北大西洋振蕩（縮寫：NAO）因與北極振蕩相當一致，所以也有研究者將兩者合併為「AO/NAO」。
Arctic/'ɑ kt k/ adj. 北極的；極寒的n. 北極圈；禦寒防水套鞋
【例句】
Always amid the High Arctic mists!
它總是出現在那片北方的濃霧中！
oscillation/ si'lei n/ n. 振動,擺動；動搖;波動；振蕩
【例句】
But actually if you slow down you'll experience very big rocking oscillations.
但如果你慢下來，箱子會更劇烈地震蕩。
hem in包圍；限制
【例句】
In every direction the great snow-capped peaks hemmed them in, peeping over each other's shoulders to the far horizon.
現在，他們置身在一片白雪披頂的群山當中；山戀重疊，一直綿延到遙遠的地平線上。
flip back向後翻轉
【例句】
We had this ability to be kind of a yin and yang on problems: one guy would say that's unsolvable, and our roles would flip back and forth.
在解決問題上，我們是陰陽相濟的：其中一個人可能會說這個問題沒法解決，然後我們的角色就會此消彼長。
latitude/'l t tju d/n. 緯度；界限；活動範圍
【例句】
Our position is latitude 32 degrees north.
我們的位置是北緯32度。
anomaly/ 'n m( )l / n. 異常,反常,不規則；畸形人〔物〕；異常現象
【例句】
A bird that cannot fly is an anomaly.
不會飛的鳥是個另類。
reprieve/r 'pri v/ n. (死刑)緩期執行令；暫緩，暫止vt. 緩期執行(死刑)
【例句】
But these key allies - Canada, Mexico and the E.U. - were given a temporary reprieve.
不過當時加拿大、墨西哥和歐盟等美國的關鍵盟友獲得了臨時豁免。
trajectory/tr 'd ekt( )r / n. 彈道,軌跡;軌道；軌線;常角軌道
【例句】
And they seem to be on different trajectories.
兩者的價格趨勢不盡相同。
bemoan/b 'm n/ v. 惋惜；為…慟哭
【例句】
Yet for those who bemoan Europe's influence, the court is a lightning rod for discontent.
然而對於那些哀嘆歐洲影響力的人來說，歐洲法院就是他們宣洩不滿的避雷針。
- THE END -
堅持就會有收穫！