08.09｜經濟學人閱讀｜財經欄目 A sigh of relief, a gasp of breath
經濟學人The Economist是一份英國的英文新聞周報，分八個版本於每周五向全球發行，編輯部位於倫敦，創辦於1843年9月。
經濟學人是一本綜合性新聞評論刊物，有商業、國家和地區、經濟和金融、科學和技術五大類。其中文章文風緊湊且嚴謹，對語言精準運用，展現出一種克制的風趣幽默，常運用雙關語調侃。
經濟學人對於英語考試的重要性不言而喻，其文章常常出現在雅思託福、SAT、GRE、GMAT、考研英語、四六級、MTI和CATTI的閱讀理解真題中。
今天給大家分享的是經濟學人2020年8月1日期刊中財經欄目的第一篇：A sigh of relief, a gasp of breath。
這篇文章主要提到了新冠疫情對全球經濟所造成的持久性影響。中國第二季度的經濟增長令人矚目，也減緩了一些能源出口國的經濟壓力。但是全球復工復產會讓疫情反彈，經濟也無法完全恢復，一些落後國家的人力資源會收到致命打擊，投資和貿易也備受影響，失業率也在攀升。很多國家紛紛祭出了財政刺激和放鬆金融監管的政策，但作者提醒這些政策長久下去反而會反噬經濟發展。
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A sigh of relief, a gasp of breath
一絲鬆懈，一悉喘息
FATIGUE. SHORTNESS of breath. Frayed nerves. Lungs mottled by scars. Months have passed since early survivors of covid-19 recovered from the disease. But some still report lingering after-effects. The disease, it seems, can inflict lasting damage, even in cases that did not prove critical. The same may be true of the pandemic’s impact on economies, especially in the developing world. Some acute dangers seem to be receding. But chronic problems loom. What does not kill these economies may still leave them weaker.
疲勞、氣促、神經緊張、肺部有斑點。自新冠病毒的早期倖存者從疾病中康復以來，已經過去了數月。 但是，有些人仍然報告稱有連續不斷的後遺症。看來，即使無法證明病情的嚴重，這種病毒也能對身體造成持久的損害。疫情對經濟的影響也是如此，尤其是在發展中國家。雖然一些嚴重的危險似乎正在消退。但是長期的問題卻隱約可見。疫情雖無法使這些經濟體致命，但是卻仍然會讓這些經濟體變得更弱。
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A few months ago the coronavirus shock looked financially lethal. But emerging-market bonds, currencies, and shares have rallied strongly since plumbing dramatic depths in March (see chart), thanks to a determined effort by the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, to allay financial stress at home by relieving a shortage of dollars worldwide.
In China, the biggest emerging economy of all, the revival of activity has been remarkable. Its GDP somehow grew by 11.5% in the second quarter, compared with the first, an annual pace of 59%, according to UBS, a bank. That left it 3.2% higher than in the prelapsarian era of April-June 2019. Capital Economics, a consultancy, now expects that by the end of this year China’s output will have caught up to where it would have been without the pandemic.
幾個月前，新冠病毒導致的社會停擺對財政而言是致命的。但是，由於美國中央銀行美聯儲決心通過印刷更多美元來緩解國內的財務壓力，因此新興市場債券、貨幣和股票自3月份暴跌以來，目前已大幅上漲。
中國，作為全球最大的新興經濟體，其經濟的復甦令人矚目。瑞銀的數據顯示，與第一季度相比，中國第二季度的GDP增長了11.5％，年增長率為59％。這使它比2019年4月至6月經濟衰退前還要高出3.2％。諮詢公司Capital Economics現在預計，到今年年底，中國的總產值將趕上沒有疫情時的水平。
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China’s growth has helped lift commodity prices, benefiting the roughly two-thirds of developing countries that export oil, metals and other primary products. The dollar value of Indonesia’s goods exports in June was 2.3% above that of a year earlier, defying expectations of a 12.3% fall. Other big emerging economies have also reported pockets of resilience or piecemeal recovery. In Mexico remittances were over 3% higher in May than a year earlier, perhaps because its emigrants took the opportunity to send money home while the peso was cheap. India in May and June regained over 90m of the 114m jobs lost in April, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a research firm.
中國的經濟增長抬高了大宗商品的價格，這使大約三分之二出口石油、金屬和其他初級產品的發展中國家受益。印尼6月份的出口商品價值比去年同期增長2.3％，而預期其會下降12.3％。其他大型新興經濟體也出現了一定程度的彈性復甦或局部復甦。在墨西哥，5月份的匯款金額比前一年增加了3％以上，這可能是因為其移民趁比索匯率便宜的時候把錢匯回家了。根據印度經濟監測中心的研究數據，5月和6月，印度恢復了4月所喪失的1.14億個工作崗位中的9000萬個。
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Two big concerns remain, however. The long-term worry is that the virus leaves behind economic scars even after it departs. The more immediate concern is that it has yet to depart. Indeed, the surprisingly strong response to the easing of lockdowns (dubbed 「revenge consumption」) in some countries may have contributed to an uptick in infections in parts of China and Vietnam (as well as richer economies like Australia and Japan) that had successfully contained the virus. And the resumption of ordinary life has no doubt contributed to the continued strong growth in infections in India and much of Latin America. The 「recovery is unlikely to be a smooth process」, note analysts at Capital Economics.
但是，仍有兩大問題存在。 長期的擔憂是，即使新冠病毒消失，它也會留下經濟的傷痕。而更直接的擔憂是病毒尚未離開。確實，一些國家對開放封鎖後出人意料的強勁反應（成為"復仇性消費"）可能導致了本已成功遏制了病毒的中國和越南的部分地區（以及澳大利亞和日本等較富裕的經濟體）的新冠感染率上升。恢復正常生活毫無疑問地促使了印度和拉丁美洲大部分地區的新冠確診病例持續強勁增長。 Capital Economics的分析師指出，「經濟復甦不太可能是一個平穩的過程」。
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Nor is it likely to be complete. Past epidemics have left a permanent mark. Three years after SARS, MERS, Ebola and Zika, investment was 9% lower in stricken economies, on average, compared with the unstricken, according to the World Bank. Output per worker was almost 4% lower. The lasting damage from covid-19 is likely to be far worse.
The pandemic has, for example, interrupted the education of many of the developing world’s youngsters. Those aged between five and 19 constitute a bigger share of the population in poor countries than in rich ones (26% versus 17%) and therefore a more significant share of the future workforce. The hiatus in their schooling is also more likely to become permanent. People cannot afford to remain on the 「sidelines」 in poor countries, points out Ayhan Kose of the World Bank. Youngsters feel a 「bigger push」 to get a part-time job, which can easily end up severing their ties to school.
經濟復甦也不可能是完全恢復的。過去的流行病就為世界經濟留下了永久的印記。根據世界銀行的數據，SARS，MERS，伊波拉和寨卡疫情發生三年後，受災國家的投資金額平均比未受災國家低了9％。每個工人的產出也幾乎降低了4％。而新冠病毒所造成的持續傷害可能會更嚴重。
例如，這種疫情中斷了許多發展中國家年輕人的教育。五至十九歲的人在貧困國家中所佔的比例比在富裕國家中所佔比例更大（分別為26％和17％），因此在未來的勞動力中所佔的比例也更大。這些年輕人也更有可能成為永久無法重新上學。世界銀行的艾漢·高絲指出，貧困國家的居民無法承擔青少年的"休學狀態"。青少年們將感到"更大的推動力"促使他們去尋找一份兼職工作，這很容易導致他們與學校徹底斷絕聯繫。
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Human capital is not the only kind that will suffer. When growth prospects are weak and uncertain, entrepreneurs are unlikely to invest in new premises, ideas or machinery, even if they can raise the finance to do so. According to the bank, governments in 58 developing countries have offered credit guarantees of various kinds to encourage lending. But banks remain risk-averse, says Bhanu Baweja of UBS.
The pandemic has also disrupted trade, which was already unsettled by tensions between America and China. For emerging economies, trade and foreign investment are sources of both hard currency and know-how. Firms learn about the world by selling to it; countries learn by hosting firms from elsewhere. By damaging global supply chains and denting international collaboration, 「the pandemic could alter the very structures upon which the growth of recent decades was built」, warn Mr Kose and his co-authors in the bank’s latest 「Global Economic Prospects」 report.
人力資源並不是唯一會遭受損失的。當增長前景疲軟且不確定時，企業家不太可能會去投資新的場所、想法或機器，即使他們可以籌集資金進行投資。根據銀行數據顯示，有58個發展中國家的政府提供了各種信貸擔保，以鼓勵貸款。但瑞銀的Bhanu Baweja稱瑞銀仍然堅持要規避風險。
疫情還擾亂了貿易，而中美之間的緊張關係已經使貿易變得不穩定。對於新興經濟體，貿易和外國投資都是硬通貨和技術的來源。公司通過銷售產品來了解世界。國家則通過託管其他地方的公司來了解世界。高絲及其合著者在世界銀行最新的《全球經濟前景》報告中警告稱，破壞全球供應鏈並削弱國際合作，「新冠疫情可能會改變世界賴以發展了幾十年的經濟結構。」
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If that is true, some industries in emerging economies will need reinvention. But contrary to folk wisdom, a crisis is not a good time for such a makeover. Research by Lucia Foster and Cheryl Grim of America’s Census Bureau and John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland found that the reallocation of workers across firms slowed in America during its last recession. The crisis winnowed out productive firms as well as weaker rivals. Job destruction increased. But job creation fell just as much. In better times, workers can leave sunset industries for promising, sunrise sectors. But in a crisis, ousted workers simply get lost in the gloaming.
如果這是真的，新興經濟體中的某些行業將需要重塑。但是，與民間智慧相悖，經濟危機時刻並不是進行這種改造的好時機。美國人口普查局的露西婭·福斯特和謝麗爾·格裡姆以及馬裡蘭大學的約翰·哈爾蒂旺格進行的研究發現，在上一次的經濟衰退期間，美國各公司的工人再分配速度有所放緩。 這場經濟危機使生產型企業以及實力較弱的公司倒閉。失業人數增加，就業機會減少。往好的方面想，工人可以離開夕陽產業並進入有前景的朝陽行業。但是在經濟危機中，被趕下崗的工人只會在悲慘的世界中迷失自我。
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To their credit, policymakers in emerging economies have tried to keep banks and firms intact. In March central banks in 42 developing countries cut interest rates, according to the World Bank, far more than in any month in 2008. Many have also become more ecumenical lenders of last resort. India’s central bank, for example, is helping to shore up shadow banks.
A number of central banks have also bought sovereign bonds, helping governments provide as much stimulus as they dare (see chart). During the global financial crisis, recalls Mr Kose, some policymakers would say: 「Maybe we shouldn’t do this, or we shouldn’t do that.」 Those conversations have not happened this time.
值得肯定的是，新興經濟體的決策者們試圖保全銀行和公司的完好無損。根據世界銀行的數據，在3月份，有42個發展中國家的中央銀行降息，遠超過2008年的任何一個月。許多銀行也普遍成為最後貸款人。例如，印度中央銀行正在幫助鞏固影子銀行。
許多中央銀行也購買了主權債券，以幫助政府實行經濟刺激措施。高絲先生回憶稱，在全球金融危機期間，一些決策者會說：「也許我們不應該這樣做，或者我們不應該這樣做。」而在這次疫情期間，這樣的談話並沒有出現。
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On top of fiscal stimulus, financial regulators have become more forgiving. They have eased prudential limits on banks and allowed lenders to indulge in creative accounting, turning a blind eye to souring loans. In Russia, financial institutions can value the securities they hold at prices on March 1st. India introduced a moratorium on loan payments.
In some cases these macro-imprudential measures have interrupted reforms going in the other direction. China’s credit push reverses several years of attempted deleveraging. In the Philippines, an amendment to the central bank’s charter had strengthened its financial independence from the finance ministry. Now the central bank is busy buying its bonds.
除了財政刺激措施外，金融監管機構也變得更加寬容。他們放寬了對銀行的審核限制，並放任貸方創造性的會計，並對不良貸款視而不見。在俄羅斯，金融機構可以按3月1日的價格對其持有的證券進行估值。而印度則實行了暫停貸款還貸。
在某些情況下，這些宏觀審慎的措施打斷了正朝著另一個方向進行的金融改革。中國的信貸推動扭轉了數年的去槓桿化嘗試。在菲律賓，對中央銀行憲章的修改加強了其財政部的獨立性。現在，中央銀行正忙於購買其債券。
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Measures of this kind were necessary. But they may prove tricky to undo. Governments will have to arrest the increase in their debt without jeopardising the recovery. And regulators will eventually have to allow some loans to be written off and some firms to go bust, if new industries are to enjoy room to grow.
One reason why covid-19 inflicts lasting harm on those infected is the aggressive immune reaction it can trigger. This 「cytokine storm」 may help kill the disease. But it can also endanger the patient. Policymakers in developing countries must take care to prevent something similar happening to their economies. They have responded with justifiable aggression to the pandemic. If left unchecked, however, this storm of defensive measures could have some nasty side-effects of its own.
這種措施是必要的。 但是它們可能很難撤消。 各國政府將不得不在不危害經濟復甦的情況下停止債務增加。如果新興產業要有增長的空間，監管機構最終將不得不註銷一些貸款，使一些公司破產。
新冠病毒對受感染者造成持久傷害的原因之一是它可以觸發的攻擊性免疫反應。這種「細胞因子風暴」可能有助於殺死這種疾病，但這也可能危及患者。發展中國家的決策者必須注意防止其經濟出現類似情況。他們對這場疫情採取了合理的抗疫行動。但是，如果放任不管，這種防禦措施本身可能會對經濟產生一些副作用。
經濟學人一般目錄大綱：
The world this week：簡單梳理本周的時事Leaders：社論，對本周熱點事件進行評論Briefing：簡報，對一個特定熱點話題深度討論Letter：讀者來信，對往期文章的評論Sections：各大洲及中美英三國的本周熱點事件報導Business：商業新聞Finances and economics：財經新聞Science and technology：科技新聞Books and arts：文化書籍，書評和文化現象討論Economic and financial indicators：商業及財經指數
Buttonwood：金融專欄Schumpeter：商業專欄Bartleby：職場專欄Bagehot：英國專欄Charlemagne：歐洲專欄Lexington：美國專欄Banyan：亞洲專欄