ECONOMIST: Brazil faces hard spending choices in 2021
經濟學人：巴西在2021年面臨艱難的支出選擇
The poor received huge welfare payments during the pandemic. These may soon dry up
在大流行期間，窮人獲得了巨額福利金。這些可能很快就會枯竭
In the final days of a tight mayoral race in November in São Gonçalo, an unglamorous city across the bay from Rio de Janeiro, one of the candidates, a retired police officer known as Capitão Nelson, made his way down a street lined with supporters. The mood was euphoric. A maskless man with a bottle of sanitiser on a string around his neck stomped his feet to funk music and squirted the gel into the air 「to kill the germs」 of the rival party. Humberto Perez, a handyman, likes the captain 「because he cares about poor people, just like the president」, Jair Bolsonaro. After work dried up in March a monthly payment from the federal government kept him from going hungry. 「And the campaign gave me a free lunch,」 he said, with a toothy grin.
11月，在裡約熱內盧灣對面的一個平淡無奇的城市——聖貢薩洛，在緊張的市長競選的最後幾天，候選人之一，一位被稱為納爾遜上校的退休警官，沿著一條擠滿支持者的街道走去。心情是愉快的。一個脖子上掛著一瓶消毒劑的無面具男人跺著腳聽著音樂，把凝膠噴到空氣中「殺死對手的細菌」。勤雜工溫貝託·佩雷斯(Humberto Perez)喜歡船長「因為他像總統一樣關心窮人」，Jair Bolsonaro。三月份工作枯竭後，聯邦政府每月支付給他一筆錢，讓他不至於挨餓。「競選給了我一頓免費的午餐，」他咧嘴笑著說。
The fact that some Brazilians are celebrating during a pandemic that has killed 180,000 of their fellow citizens is among covid-19’s many paradoxes. So is the reason for their cheer: that a right-wing, pro-market government has rolled out the biggest welfare programme in Brazil’s history. Before the pandemic, extreme poverty was on the rise. Nearly 1m families were on the waiting list for Bolsa Família, a conditional cash-transfer programme that the government had cut back after a recession in 2014-16. In March 2020 widespread hunger seemed imminent. Paulo Guedes, the economy minister, proposed to spend no more than 5bn reais ($1bn), 0.2% of the budget, to fight the pandemic.
一些巴西人正在慶祝一場造成18萬同胞死亡的流行病，這是新冠肺炎眾多悖論之一。他們歡呼的原因也是如此:右翼、親市場的政府推出了巴西歷史上最大的福利項目。在大流行之前，極端貧困呈上升趨勢。近100萬家庭在等待Bolsa Família，這是一個有條件的現金轉移項目，政府在2014-16年經濟衰退後削減了該項目。2020年3月，普遍的飢餓似乎迫在眉睫。經濟部長保羅·蓋德斯(Paulo Guedes)提議，支出不超過50億雷亞爾(合10億美元)，佔預算的0.2%，用於抗擊這一流行病。
But momentum began to build in Brazil’s Congress to provide a basic income to poor people. Realising that it risked looking miserly, the government announced that it would give monthly payments of 600 reais to 68m Brazilians, a third of the population. Single mothers got twice that. In September the government halved the benefit, called auxílio emergencial (emergency aid), but extended it until the end of 2020. Brazil’s fiscal response to the pandemic, which also includes job-retention schemes, adds up to more than 8% of gdp, among the highest for g20 countries and twice the average for emerging markets. Congress declared a 「state of calamity」 to allow the government to bypass a constitutional ceiling on spending.
但巴西國會開始形成向窮人提供基本收入的勢頭。政府意識到自己可能會顯得吝嗇，宣布將每月向6800萬巴西人(三分之一的人口)支付600雷亞爾。單身母親得到的是兩倍。9月，政府將福利減半，稱為auxílio emergencial(緊急援助)，但延長至2020年底。巴西應對這一流行病的財政措施，其中也包括保留工作的計劃，總計超過8%國內生產總值，為最高之一g20個國家，是新興市場平均水平的兩倍。國會宣布進入「災難狀態」，允許政府繞過憲法規定的支出上限。
But with public debt approaching 100% of gdp, the government now faces a moment of truth. The state of calamity ends on December 31st, and with it the auxílio. Brazil can do one of three things: chop welfare spending to pre-pandemic levels, breach the ceiling or enact fiscal reforms that would allow it to maintain both. The third choice is the best, but it is also the most difficult. Since a landmark pension reform in 2019, the government has done little to cut spending or improve its effectiveness.
但是隨著公共債務接近100%國內生產總值政府現在面臨一個關鍵時刻。災難將於12月31日結束auxilio。巴西可以做三件事之一:將福利支出削減至大流行前的水平，突破上限或實施財政改革，使其能夠保持這兩者。第三種選擇是最好的，但也是最難的。自2019年具有裡程碑意義的養老金改革以來，政府在削減支出或提高效率方面幾乎沒有做什麼。
The auxílio has been a remarkable success. For more than 7m informal workers who lost their jobs, it was a crucial safety-net. It tripled payments to 14m families who had received an average of 190 reais a month from Bolsa Família. The auxíliolifted 1m people out of extreme poverty (see chart) and kept another 15m from becoming poor. Fundação Getulio Vargas (fgv), a university, found that Brazil’s Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality, swiftly dropped from 0.55 to 0.49, which is a lot. Poverty and inequality are the lowest since fgv began tracking them in 1970.
auxilio取得了巨大的成功。對於700多萬失去工作的非正式工人來說，這是一個至關重要的安全網。1400萬家庭每月平均從家庭補助中獲得190雷亞爾，這一數字是原來的三倍。auxilio使100萬人擺脫極端貧困(見圖表),並使另外1500萬人免於貧困。格圖利奧·巴爾加斯基金會(義大利)，一所大學發現，衡量不平等的巴西基尼係數從0.55迅速下降到0.49，這個數字很大。貧困和不平等是自2000年以來最低的義大利從1970年開始追蹤他們。
Brazilians whose pockets were empty after years of low growth bought televisions and ovens. Millions opened their first bank accounts. The poor north-east experienced a construction boom. After a 9.7% contraction in the second quarter, the economy grew 7.7% in the third. It will shrink in 2020 by half as much as many economists had predicted.
經歷了多年的低增長後，口袋空空如也的巴西人購買了電視機和烤箱。數百萬人開立了他們的第一個銀行帳戶。貧窮的東北部經歷了建築熱潮。在第二季度收縮9.7%之後，第三季度經濟增長了7.7%。到2020年，它將收縮到許多經濟學家預測的一半。
Mr Bolsonaro’s approval ratings climbed, smoothing the way for an alliance with the centrão (big centre), a bloc of opportunistic centre-right parties in Congress. 「The expectation of victory and power brings us together,」 says Ricardo Barros, now the government’s whip. Centrão candidates were the biggest winners in the local elections. They included Capitão Nelson, who won an upset victory against his left-wing rival. He promised money for new clinics and more police.
博爾索納羅的支持率攀升，為與美國的聯盟鋪平了道路centrã o(大中心)，國會中一群機會主義的中右翼政黨。「對勝利和權力的期望把我們聚集在一起，」裡卡多·巴羅斯說，他現在是政府的鞭子。Centrã候選人是地方選舉中最大的贏家。他們中包括納爾遜上校，他擊敗了他的左翼對手，取得了令人沮喪的勝利。他承諾為新診所和更多警察提供資金。
That will be a hard promise to keep. The stimulus was a 「huge dose of anaesthesia that numbed the pain of the pandemic」, says Marcelo Neri of fgv. On January 1st 「it will wear off」. The unemployment rate of 14.6% is the highest it has ever been. People in the poorest half of households have lost 28% of their earnings. 「Unwinding all the extraordinary support in the coming months could risk derailing the incipient recovery,」 warns the imf. Millions could fall into poverty.
這將是一個難以兌現的承諾。fgv的Marcelo Neri說，這種刺激是「一種巨大的麻醉劑量，可以麻木大流行的痛苦」。1月1日「會磨損」。14.6%的失業率是有史以來最高的。最貧窮的一半家庭的人損失了28%的收入。國際貨幣基金組織警告稱:「在未來幾個月取消所有特別支持可能會有破壞剛剛開始的復甦的風險。」數百萬人可能陷入貧困。
If Brazil tapers spending gradually, as other countries plan to do, it will breach the ceiling, which was enacted in 2016 to control rising debt. It limits growth in most federal expenditure to the previous year’s rate of inflation. Because 94% of the budget is eaten up by mandatory spending (chiefly pensions and salaries), little is left for investment and social programmes. In 2019 the government spent 30bn reais, or 0.4% of gdp, on Bolsa Família. The auxílio cost ten times that.
如果巴西像其他國家計劃的那樣逐漸縮減支出，它將突破2016年頒布的控制債務上升的上限。它將大多數聯邦支出的增長限制在前一年的通貨膨脹率之內。由於94%的預算被強制性支出(主要是養老金和工資)消耗殆盡，投資和社會項目所剩無幾。2019年，政府支出300億雷亞爾，佔國內生產總值的0.4%國內生產總值，在Bolsa Família。auxilio花費是那個的十倍。
Some Brazilians think the ceiling is essential to prevent an eventual default. But Brazil’s debt is largely denominated in its own currency, which reduces that risk. If interest rates were to rise uncontrollably, the Central Bank could buy government debt. The cap matters more as a sign of commitment to reforms, says Arthur Carvalho of Truxt Investimentos, a hedge fund. 「If you can’t cut anything in a mammoth state to fund an important social programme, you can’t make choices,」 he says. The imf urges Brazil to keep the ceiling and make space for a more targeted benefit in 2021 by 「swiftly」 passing money-saving reforms. Brazil risks hyperinflation if it scraps the spending ceiling, warned Mr Guedes in an interview with The Economist.
一些巴西人認為上限對於防止最終違約至關重要。但巴西的債務主要以本國貨幣計價，這降低了風險。如果利率不受控制地上升，央行可以購買政府債券。對衝基金Truxt Investimentos的亞瑟·卡瓦略(Arthur Carvalho)表示，上限更重要的是作為改革承諾的標誌。「如果你不能在一個龐大的州削減任何東西來資助一個重要的社會項目，你就不能做出選擇，」他說。這國際貨幣基金組織敦促巴西保持上限，並通過「迅速」通過省錢改革為2021年更有針對性的福利騰出空間。蓋德斯在接受《金融時報》採訪時警告稱，如果巴西取消支出上限，它將面臨惡性通脹的風險《經濟學人》。
Neither big reforms nor a change in the spending cap is in prospect, which means welfare spending is set to fall. The damage to the poor will be modest, Mr Guedes thinks. The beneficiaries of the auxílio 「were alive before the pandemic」, he said. 「They had informal jobs」 cleaning houses or selling sweets on the beach. 「If the economy recovers they』ll be back.」 Mr Guedes is bullish about that. 「We will end this year with zero net jobs lost in the formal labour market,」 he predicts. 「I challenge any country to beat our record.」
既沒有大的改革，也沒有支出上限的變化，這意味著福利支出將會下降。圭德斯先生認為，對窮人的損害將是適度的。他說，auxílio的受益者「在大流行之前還活著」。「他們有非正式的工作」，打掃房子或在海灘上賣糖果。「如果經濟復甦，他們會回來的。」蓋德斯先生對此很樂觀。「我們將在今年年底實現正規勞動力市場零淨失業，」他預測。"我挑戰任何一個國家來打破我們的記錄。"
His boss is less relaxed. Mr Bolsonaro wants to launch a new programme, Renda Cidadã (Citizens』 Income), which would help more families than Bolsa Família, although fewer than the auxílio. But he has rejected proposals for how to pay for it. 「I can’t take away from the poor to give to the poorer,」 he said when Mr Guedes suggested trimming other programmes.
他的老闆不太放鬆。Bolsonaro先生想推出一個新的項目，Renda Cidadã(公民收入)，這將比Bolsa Familia幫助更多的家庭，儘管比auxílio少。但他拒絕了如何支付這筆費用的提議。「我不能拿走窮人的東西給窮人，」當蓋德斯先生建議削減其他項目時，他說。
There are other ideas. Congress is considering an 「emergency」 constitutional reform that would curb public-sector pay and tax exemptions. This would free a bit of cash for welfare. More would be available if that reform were coupled with an amendment to make the spending limit more flexible during crises, suggests Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank in Washington. 「You could do this without spooking markets,」 she says. But Congress signalled last week that it will discuss the emergency measures only in February at the earliest. Mr Guedes promptly said he would take a holiday.
還有其他想法。國會正在考慮一項「緊急」憲法改革，以限制公共部門的薪酬和免稅。這將釋放一點現金用於福利。華盛頓智庫彼得森國際經濟研究所的莫尼卡·德·博爾認為，如果改革能與在危機期間使支出限制更加靈活的修正案相結合，將會有更多的機會。「你可以在不驚嚇市場的情況下做到這一點，」她說。但國會上周表示，最早將在2月份討論緊急措施。蓋德斯先生當即表示他將休假。
The government and Congress could put off a reckoning by extending the state of calamity, using a second wave of covid-19 as its justification. Mr Guedes has hinted he might endorse that. It would merely postpone the choice between fiscal reform and welfare cuts. The auxílio 「can’t last for ever」, says Carlos Jordy, a congressional ally of Mr Bolsonaro who attended Capitão Nelson’s rally. Mr Perez, the handyman, may learn painfully that there is no such thing as a free lunch.
政府和國會可以利用第二波新冠肺炎作為理由，通過延長災難狀態來推遲清算。蓋德斯先生暗示他可能會支持這一點。這只會推遲財政改革和削減福利之間的選擇。auxilio「不可能永遠持續下去」，卡洛斯·喬迪說，他是博爾索納羅先生的國會盟友，參加了納爾遜將軍的集會。勤雜工佩雷斯可能會痛苦地認識到，天下沒有免費的午餐。
本文章英文原文來自經濟學人，不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/12/19/brazil-faces-hard-spending-choices-in-2021
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