ECONOMIST: Mexico’s president has yet to make people’s lives better
經濟學人：墨西哥總統還沒有讓人們的生活變得更好
But he has grabbed a lot of power for himself
但他為自己攫取了很多權力
「We are living a stellar moment,」 declared Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, this month, a little over two years after he took office. It is hard to find evidence of that. Even by the standards of a covid-ravaged world, the country is doing poorly. Mexico has the fourth-highest number of excess deaths as a share of population since the pandemic’s onset. Its economy was in recession before the pandemic arrived (see chart). The poverty rate probably rose more than in Latin America’s other big economies. Almost half of Mexico’s 126m people could not afford to eat properly at the end of 2020, according to official figures. Whereas murder rates have dropped sharply in some violent Latin American countries during the pandemic, in Mexico the decline has been tiny.
墨西哥總統安德烈斯·曼努埃爾·洛佩斯·奧布拉多爾本月宣布:「我們生活在一個輝煌的時刻。」他上任兩年多了。很難找到這方面的證據。即使以一個被covid蹂躪的世界的標準來看，這個國家也做得很差。自大流行爆發以來，墨西哥的超額死亡人數佔人口的比例位居第四。在大流行到來之前，它的經濟處於衰退之中(見圖表)。貧困率的上升可能超過拉丁美洲其他大型經濟體。根據官方數據，到2020年底，墨西哥1.26億人口中有近一半的人無法正常飲食。在大流行期間，一些暴力拉美國家的謀殺率大幅下降，而墨西哥的下降幅度很小。
If the moment is not stellar, most ordinary Mexicans trust Mr López Obrador, often simply called amlo, soon to make it so. According to a recent poll, his approval rating is 62%. Another survey found that nearly 40% of Mexicans plan to vote for his party, Morena, in legislative and regional elections due in June. The two most popular opposition parties have a quarter of that level of support each (and a third of voters are undecided). amlo’s popularity is evident in places like Ecatepec, a municipality near Mexico City that is as poor, violent and covid-blighted as anywhere. Some neighbourhoods lack water; walls are plastered with posters for missing people and help applying for visas to the United States. 「We have not yet seen results」 from amlo, admits Efrain Salguero, a local driver. 「I think we should give him more time.」
如果這一時刻並不精彩，大多數普通墨西哥人相信洛佩斯·奧布拉多爾(通常簡稱為阿姆洛)很快就會成功。根據最近的一項民意調查，他的支持率為62%。另一項調查發現，近40%的墨西哥人計劃在6月份的立法和地區選舉中投票給他的政黨莫雷納。兩個最受歡迎的反對黨各有四分之一的支持率(三分之一的選民尚未決定)。amlo的受歡迎程度在像Ecatepec這樣的地方是顯而易見的，Ecatepec是墨西哥城附近的一個自治市，和其他地方一樣貧窮、暴力和腐敗。一些街區缺水；牆上貼滿了失蹤人員和幫助申請美國籤證的海報。「我們還沒有看到來自amlo的結果」，當地司機Efrain Salguero承認。「我認為我們應該給他更多的時間。」
Mr Salguero is among the millions of Mexicans who still have high hopes for amlo’s 「fourth transformation」, which is to make the country work better by ending corruption and rampant crime and distributing gains from economic growth more fairly. He envisions it as the successor to the war of independence of 1810-21, the war for liberal reform of 1858-61 and the revolution of 1910-17. But in two years of transformation amlo has changed Mexico much less than did these momentous events, and mostly for the worse.
薩爾蓋羅先生是數百萬墨西哥人中仍抱有很高希望的一員氨氯地平「第四個轉變」是通過結束腐敗和猖獗的犯罪，更公平地分配經濟增長的收益，讓國家更好地運轉。他設想它是1810-21年獨立戰爭、1858-61年自由改革戰爭和1910-17年革命的繼承者。但是在兩年的轉變中amlo比這些重大事件對墨西哥的影響要小得多，而且更糟。
In practice, the fourth transformation seems to have three main elements: the undoing of recent reforms; new initiatives that fail to solve the problems they purport to; and concentration of power in the president’s hands.
實際上，第四次轉型似乎有三個主要因素:最近改革的失敗；未能解決其聲稱的問題的新倡議；權力集中在總統手中。
Reforms enacted by amlo’s 「neoliberal」 predecessors, however sensible, were quick to go. Early in 2019 he scrapped an education reform introduced by Enrique Peña Nieto, his immediate predecessor, that linked teachers』 pay and promotions to the performance of their pupils. amlo abolished Prospera, a much lauded conditional cash-transfer programme for the poor. Handouts, for example to farmers, are now presented as presidential gifts.
改革是由amlo美國的「新自由主義」前輩們，不管多麼明智，都很快離開了。2019年初，他取消了他的前任恩裡克·培尼亞·涅託(Enrique Pea Nieto)提出的一項教育改革，該改革將教師的工資和晉升與學生的表現掛鈎。amlo廢除了備受稱讚的針對窮人的有條件現金轉移計劃「普洛斯彼拉」。例如給農民的施捨，現在被作為總統禮物贈送。
amlo tried to reverse the opening of energy markets, once dominated by state monopolies, to private and foreign enterprises. Mexico’s Congress is debating a bill under which electricity generated by state-owned cfe would get priority access to the grid, in preference to cheaper alternatives. This would not only raise prices for consumers but could breach the us-Mexico-Canada Agreement (usmca), North America’s free-trade pact. It would put at risk some 150 renewable-energy projects that are expected to bring more than $40bn-worth of investment, and make it impossible for Mexico to reach its commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. amlo cancelled the construction of a $13bn airport for Mexico City that was already half-built. These policies have undermined the confidence of investors.
amlo試圖扭轉曾經由國家壟斷的能源市場對私人和外國企業的開放。墨西哥國會正在辯論一項法案，根據該法案，電力由國有企業生產進修學院會優先進入電網，而不是更便宜的選擇。這不僅會提高消費者的價格，還會違反美國-墨西哥-加拿大協定(美國管理認證協會)，北美的自由貿易協定。它將使大約150個可再生能源項目面臨風險，這些項目預計將帶來價值超過400億美元的投資，並使墨西哥無法實現其減少溫室氣體排放的承諾。amlo取消了為墨西哥城建設的一個價值130億美元的機場，該機場已經建了一半。這些政策削弱了投資者的信心。
If all this were a prelude to enacting bold ideas for improving Mexicans』 well-being, the cost might be tolerable. But amlo’s solutions are bullets discharged from an antique gun that is badly aimed and packed with too little fiscal firepower. His dedication to fiscal discipline, laudable in a populist of the left, became counterproductive in the pandemic. In a bizarre role reversal, the imf is urging Mexico to spend much more than the 0.7% of gdp it has done to fight the pandemic’s economic effects. Brazil, by contrast, has spent 8% of gdp, and Argentina 3.8%. amlo resists because he fears that Mexico could become beholden to foreign creditors as it did during a financial crisis in 1982.
如果所有這些都是實施改善墨西哥人福祉的大膽想法的前奏，那麼代價可能是可以承受的。但是amlo美國的解決方案是從一把瞄準不準、財政火力不足的古董槍裡射出子彈。他對財政紀律的奉獻在左翼民粹主義者中值得稱讚，但在這場流行病中卻適得其反。在一個奇怪的角色轉換中國際貨幣基金組織(international monetary fund)敦促墨西哥的支出遠遠超過0.7%國內生產總值它已經採取措施對抗這種流行病的經濟影響。相比之下，巴西花費了國內生產總值，阿根廷3.8%。amlo抵制是因為他擔心墨西哥會像1982年金融危機時一樣，對外國債權人變得依賴。
His tightfistedness, some economists fear, will lead to 「scarring」—a permanent drop in output caused by a loss of jobs and businesses during the pandemic. Bound by fiscal constraints, the patron of the poor has done little to protect them. He has shuffled money around, slashing spending on the government apparatus and boosting it on pet social programmes. He has doubled old-age pensions and aims to pay 2.3m young adults to study or take up apprenticeships. Overall, though, social spending has risen little. Social programmes are being 「done on the cheap」, says Javier Tello, a television commentator. A sharp rise in the minimum wage has helped some workers with formal jobs. Businesses pay for that.
一些經濟學家擔心，他的吝嗇將導致「傷疤」——在大流行期間，工作和企業的損失導致產出的永久下降。受財政約束的束縛，窮人的保護人幾乎沒有做什麼來保護他們。他將錢四處轉移，削減政府機構的開支，並將其用於寵物社會項目。他將養老金增加了一倍，並計劃向230萬年輕人支付學習或學徒費用。然而，總體而言，社會支出幾乎沒有增長。電視評論員賈維爾·泰洛說，社會節目正在「廉價製作」。最低工資的大幅提高幫助一些工人找到了正式工作。企業為此買單。
Where amlo has splashed out is on old-economy projects that will deliver little return. He has poured money into Pemex, the world’s most indebted oil company, and plans to spend $8bn to build the Dos Bocas refinery in his home state of Tabasco. Airlines think the mountainous terrain around the military airport that is to become the alternative civilian hub for Mexico City will restrict flights.
在amlo揮霍的回報甚微的舊經濟項目上。他已向全球負債最重的石油公司墨西哥石油公司(Pemex)注資，並計劃斥資80億美元在其家鄉塔巴斯科州建設多斯博卡斯(Dos Bocas)煉油廠。航空公司認為，將成為墨西哥城替代民用樞紐的軍用機場周圍的山區地形將限制航班。
The fourth transformation has not lessened the greatest dangers to Mexicans』 safety, one new and one old. The government’s handling of the pandemic has been disastrous. Its miserly social spending has contributed to a widespread feeling that unsafe work is the only alternative to going hungry. amlo has been spotted just once wearing a face mask (most Mexicans do wear one). Mexico tests few people for covid-19 by international standards. Hospitals are full and oxygen tanks are in short supply. Vaccination got off to a very slow start. People who hoped that amlo would show a greater sense of urgency after he contracted covid-19 were disappointed. On February 8th he reappeared after a two-week convalescence. He caught the bug, he said, because like many Mexicans he cannot stop working.
第四次轉變並沒有減少墨西哥人安全面臨的最大危險，一個新的，一個舊的。政府對流行病的處理是災難性的。其吝嗇的社會支出導致了一種普遍的感覺，即不安全的工作是挨餓的唯一選擇。amlo只被發現戴過一次口罩(大多數墨西哥人都戴口罩)。按照國際標準，墨西哥很少為新冠肺炎測試人。醫院滿員，氧氣瓶緊缺。疫苗接種起步很慢。人們希望amlo在他與新冠肺炎籤約後會表現出更大的緊迫感。2月8日，經過兩周的恢復期，他再次出現。他說，他染上了這種病，因為像許多墨西哥人一樣，他不能停止工作。
The voters who gave amlo his landslide election win in 2018 wanted, perhaps more than anything else, a big reduction in the country’s high number of murders. They are still waiting. amlo proclaimed last year’s 0.4% dip a 「significant success」, but it comes after a rise the year before. Murders of women, which led to mass protests last year, stayed at record levels in 2020.
投票的選民amlo他在2018年大選中的壓倒性勝利，也許比其他任何事情都更希望大幅減少該國的高謀殺率。他們還在等待。amlo宣稱去年0.4%的下跌是一個「重大成功」，但這是在前年上漲之後。去年導致大規模抗議的婦女謀殺案在2020年保持在創紀錄的水平。
amlo rejected previous governments』 tactic of killing or capturing crime kingpins, because this led to a splintering of gangs and thus to more violence. But his signature policies for combating crime have not so far worked. His notion that reducing poverty will ultimately lower crime 「might stop a three-year-old becoming El Chapo」, a notorious drug lord, says Mr Tello. 「But it doesn’t have an answer for the current El Chapos.」 Formerly suspicious of the armed forces, amlo issued a decree giving them primary responsibility for fighting crime. A new 100,000-strong National Guard is composed mainly of soldiers rather than people trained in policing.
amlo拒絕了前政府殺死或抓獲犯罪頭目的策略，因為這導致幫派分裂，從而導致更多的暴力。但是他打擊犯罪的標誌性政策至今沒有奏效。泰洛說，他認為減少貧困最終會降低犯罪率的觀點「可能會阻止一個三歲的孩子成為臭名昭著的毒梟埃爾·查普」。「但對於目前的埃爾查波斯，它沒有答案。」以前懷疑軍隊，amlo頒布了一項法令，賦予他們打擊犯罪的主要責任。一個新的10萬人的國民警衛隊主要由士兵組成，而不是由受過警務訓練的人組成。
amlo has fought the gentler crime of corruption by setting an example of probity and imposing stiffer penalties on bribe-taking bureaucrats. He has done less to strengthen institutions that will carry the battle forward. The national anti-corruption prosecutor is overwhelmed with cases. A proposal by anti-graft prosecutors for constitutional guarantees of their autonomy and a minimum budget 「has not found traction with López Obrador’s congressional majority」, according to a recent report by wola, a think-tank in Washington. An autonomous government agency estimates that the number of acts of corruption rose by 19% between 2017 and 2019. The vast majority of government contracts are not open to tender.
amlo通過樹立廉潔的榜樣和對受賄的官員施加更嚴厲的懲罰來打擊較溫和的腐敗犯罪。他在加強將戰鬥向前推進的機構方面做得較少。國家反腐檢察官被案件壓得喘不過氣來。根據最近的一份報告，反腐敗檢察官提出的憲法保障他們的自主權和最低預算的提案「沒有得到洛佩斯·奧布拉多爾的國會多數的支持」歐洲站華盛頓的智囊團。一個自治政府機構估計，2017年至2019年間，腐敗行為的數量增長了19%。絕大多數政府合同都不公開招標。
Ordinary Mexicans have overlooked amlo’s failures because he has a bond with them that most presidents lacked. 「He is from the people, for the people and with the people,」 says Daniel Sibaja, a Morena official in Ecatepec. His popularity flows from who he is rather than what he does. Power thus flows to him.
普通墨西哥人忽略了氨氯地平因為他與他們有著大多數總統都缺乏的聯繫。「他來自人民，為人民，與人民同在，」埃卡特佩克的莫雷納官員丹尼爾·西巴卡說。他的受歡迎程度源於他是誰，而不是他做什麼。權力就這樣流向了他。
amlo sets the national agenda in daily morning press conferences that can last three hours. He has cut the budgets and dismissed the bosses of autonomous institutions such as Coneval, which measures poverty. Last month he proposed to abolish several autonomous agencies, including the antitrust body and freedom-of-information institute. He rails against critical media and ratings agencies.
amlo在每天早上持續三小時的新聞發布會上制定國家議程。他削減了預算，並解僱了自治機構的老闆，如衡量貧困的Coneval。上個月，他提議廢除幾個自治機構，包括反壟斷機構和信息自由協會。他指責批評媒體和評級機構。
amlo damages the social fabric by constantly 「characterising the elite as wicked and the poor as saintly and victimised」, says Soledad Loaeza, a historian. The elite call him a Mexican version of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s late socialist strongman. That is an exaggeration. But the mix of policy failure and power-grabbing is worrying. Next June’s congressional and regional elections may be Mexicans』 last chance to tame their rampant president.
amlo歷史學家索萊達·洛阿扎(Soledad Loaeza)說，不斷「將精英描繪成邪惡的人，將窮人描繪成聖人和受害者」，破壞了社會結構。精英們稱他為墨西哥版的查維茲，委內瑞拉已故的社會主義強人。這有點誇張。但政策失敗和權力攫取的結合令人擔憂。明年6月的國會和地區選舉可能是墨西哥人馴服猖獗的總統的最後機會。
本文章英文原文來自經濟學人，本人僅提供給大家一個觀察國外文章的平臺，文章內容不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/02/20/mexicos-president-has-yet-to-make-peoples-lives-better
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