作者：海外研究員 來源：中英行業資訊
The IMF came out with a revised world economic outlook on January 20 that essentially projects a recovery from an estimated 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021.
Although the latest forecasts from the IMF already represent a 0.1 percent downward revision for 2019 and 2020, I am a bit skeptical about the assertion that the worst days are already behind us – at least not in China.
I have sniffed the smell of hard days, looking around at my friends, relatives and students.
My graduate students keep telling me jobs are difficult to find these days, even if they are from one of the top business and economics schools in China. Things are not getting better yet.
國際貨幣基金組織於1月20日發布了一份修訂後的《世界經濟展望》，該展望基本上預測全球經濟將從2019年的2.9%恢復到2020年的3.3%和2021年的3.4%。
儘管國際貨幣基金組織的最新預測已經下調了2019年和2020年的預測值，下調幅度為0.1%，但我對「最糟糕的日子已經過去」這一說法表示懷疑——至少在中國是這樣。
我四處看看我的朋友、親戚和學生，嗅到了艱苦日子的氣息。
我的研究生們一直告訴我，如今很難找到工作，即使他們來自中國最好的商學院和經濟學院之一。情況還沒有好轉。
Granted, the IMF did say China's growth outlook this year is going to slow down to six percent.
I am convinced that reaching six percent this year would be a tall order, especially for the fact that 20 days into the new year we are already saddled with a frightening pandemic that is set to drag the economy into the mire.
The first quarter picture is hardly drawn well. Just think of the hotels, restaurants, airlines, retail, malls, cinemas and all of those things that we typically spend lavishly on during the Spring Festival. But it looks like this Spring Festival will be a subdued one.
當然，國際貨幣基金組織的確表示，中國今年的增長前景將放緩至6%。
我相信，今年達到6%是一個艱巨的任務，尤其是在新年剛過20天，我們就已經背負上了一場可怕的流行病，它將把經濟拖入泥潭。
第一季的畫面很難畫好。想想酒店、餐館、航空公司、零售、商場、電影院，以及所有那些我們通常在春節期間會大肆消費的東西。但看來今年的春節將會很壓抑。
There are also uncertainties about the phase two negotiation of the Sino-U.S. trade spat. Yes, the phase one deal has all the reasons to celebrate, but please be reminded that the bulk of the tariffs that have been imposed by President Trump since July 2018 are still very much in place.
Are the tariffs a means to an end serving as a de facto enforcement mechanism that will be gradually phased out as progress is made to execute the phase one agreement, or they are indeed the end that President Trump wants to deliver on his campaign promises regarding China. The jury is still out, it seems.
In short, we are facing headwinds ahead in China.
中美第二階段談判也存在不確定性。貿易爭端—是的，儘管第一階段協議是值得慶祝的，但請記住，自2018年7月以來，川普總統徵收的大部分關稅仍然有效。
這些關稅是一種手段，最終成為一種事實上的執行機制，隨著第一階段協議的執行取得進展，這一機制將逐漸被淘汰？
還是說，它們確實是特郎普總統希望兌現其關於中國的競選承諾的目的?似乎還沒有定論。
簡而言之，我們在中國正面臨著逆風。
Other major economic powers are also not going to do well. The IMF's forecast of a 2020 recovery is essentially built on the story of the world's less weighty economies leading the pack.
The United States is projected to slow down from 2.3 percent in 2019 to two percent in 2020. Japan is projected to slow down from one percent to 0.7 percent.
These are the three largest economies. In Eurozone where other than Germany is said to recover, the rest are mostly anemic in spite of monetary easing that has landed a real interest rate in negative territories. Spain is going to be down significantly from two percent to 1.6 percent.
France is going to be flat at 1.3 percent. Italy is a bit better to recover from 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent.
其他主要經濟大國表現也不怎麼樣。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)對2020年經濟復甦的預測，基本上建立在世界上實力較弱的經濟體處於領先地位的基礎上。
美國預計將從2019年的2.3%下降到2020年的2%。日本經濟增長預計將從1%放緩至0.7%。這是三個最大的經濟體。
在歐元區，除了德國以外，其它國家據說都在復甦，儘管貨幣寬鬆政策已使實際利率降至負值，但歐元區其它國家的經濟大多仍很疲弱。
西班牙將從2%大幅下降到1.6%。法國將持平於1.3%。義大利稍微好一些從0.2%恢復到0.5%。
In the IMF's view, the force that saves the day lies with the emerging markets and the rest of the developing world.
Russia, emerging and developing Europe and Asia (barring China but including India), Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and Central Asia, and finally Sub-Saharan Africa all are going to see significant growth improvements.
These smaller economies are so numerous and their growth will be so strong that they will pull the overall world economy into a better year.
在IMF看來，拯救世界的力量在於新興市場和其他發展中國家。
俄羅斯、新興和發展中的歐洲和亞洲(不包括中國，但包括印度)、拉丁美洲和加勒比海、中東和中亞，以及撒哈拉以南非洲，都將看到顯著的增長改善。
這些規模較小的經濟體數量眾多，它們的增長將非常強勁，將推動整個世界經濟進入一個更好的年份。
The year 2020 is going to be the year of the little guys. They are the locomotives of the world. Such is the overall picture that the World Bank would like to have us believe.
I am not converted yet. I think there are still many uncertainties ahead and the investment sentiment hasn't shown convincingly it is coming back in any significant way.
But regardless of what the IMF says about the world, what is relevant to this country is that we had better do our best and prepare for the worst.
Hopefully, the central government can do magic by wielding both fiscal and monetary policies.
2020年將是小人物年。他們是世界的火車頭。這就是世界銀行希望我們相信的總體情況。
我還沒有相信這些情況。因為我認為，未來仍有許多不確定性，投資情緒尚未令人信服地顯示出正以任何重大方式回歸。
但不管國際貨幣基金組織如何評價世界，與這個國家相關的是，我們最好盡力而為，做最壞的打算。
希望政府能夠同時運用財政和貨幣政策來創造奇蹟。