每年深冬時節，《經濟學人》都會出版一期新一年預測專刊，今年的《The World in 2021》如約而至。人類關於2020年所有的記憶都在疫情的時代大背景下緩緩鋪開，有的人把寶貴的生命永遠留在了已經逝去的2020，更多的人在戰勝了病魔後決定更認真地擁抱生活。大多數的你我始終與疫情保持著友好的社交距離，從新聞媒體上讀到一個個動人而振奮的故事，為醫護人員逆行馳援而動容，為平凡人的不凡之舉而鼓掌。在被按下暫停鍵的2020，我們過著如水般靜默的日子，而這份安寧的背後是千萬人無悔的付出。歷經挑戰的我們更加堅信，這個苦難中孕育的國度從不會被困難壓倒，只會在風雨洗禮中涅槃重生，豐滿羽翼，振翅翱翔！
下面讓我們一起看看《經濟學人》對2021年的十大預測，預測並不一定準確，請大家帶著批判思維理性斟酌。
Ten Trends to Watch in the Coming Year
2021年十大趨勢預測
It’s not all doom and gloom【前景暗淡】.
2021年的前景並不全然暗淡。
【短語解讀】想要精準地學習英文短語和單詞，最佳方法就是查字典，看英文釋義和例句，如「doom and gloom」這個短語在「Merriam-webster」詞典裡的英文釋義是「sad and tragic events : a feeling or attitude that things are only getting worse（悲傷和悲慘的事件：感到或認為事情只會越來越糟）」。英文釋義都是用簡明易懂的詞彙進行解釋，結合例句，就能知道該如何正確使用這一短語或單詞。
例句| The papers are filled with stories of gloom and doom.
報紙上滿是令人喪氣的新聞。
【小編碎語】近來興起的「喪文化」感覺用「the life attitude of doom and gloom」形容非常貼切。
As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.
隨著2021年的到來，《經濟學人》作出以下十大預測。
1. Fights over vaccines【疫苗】. As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the effort of developing【研發疫苗develop vaccines】 them to the task of distributing【配發疫苗distribute vaccines】 them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. How many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?
一、疫苗之爭。隨著第一批疫苗大量投產，人們關注的焦點從疫苗研發轉向疫苗配發。疫苗外交將在各國國內和各國之間展開，誰應當接種疫苗？將排在第幾批接種疫苗？又有多少人在有條件接種疫苗時會選擇拒絕？
2. A mixed economic recovery. As economies bounce back【經濟復甦】from the pandemic the recovery will be patchy【分布不均的】, as local outbreaks【（疫情）暴發】 and clampdowns（【（政府）限制措施】a sudden restriction on a particular activity by a government or other authority 政府突然限制某一活動） come and go【來來去去，形容頻繁反覆】—and governments pivot【此處為動詞，意為「以……為中心旋轉」】from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.
二、經濟復甦速度不均衡。鑑於各地疫情暴發情況和政府因防疫需要而執行的限制措施頻繁反覆，政府的工作重點由維繫企業運轉轉向幫助失業工人，疫情後各地經濟將出現不均衡復甦。強大企業和弱小企業之間的差距將會擴大。
【短語解讀】「bounce back」的英文釋義是「to return quickly to a normal condition after a difficult situation or event.」（在歷經困難情境後快速恢復至正常水平）
例句| She bounced back easily from her surgery.
她術後恢復很快。
3. Patching up the new world disorder. How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a crumbling【破碎的】 rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty【巴黎氣候協定】 and the Iran nuclear deal【伊朗核問題協議】 are obvious places to start. But the crumbling predates Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.
三、逐步修復新的世界秩序。美國當選總統拜登將在多大程度上修復支離破碎的基於規則的國際秩序？可以考慮從巴黎氣候協定和伊朗核問題協議入手。但支離破碎的國際秩序早在川普上臺前就已出現，並將延續至川普下臺。
4. More US-China tensions. Don’t expect Mr. Biden to call off【取消，宣布終止】 the trade war【貿易戰】 with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to wage【此處是動詞，意為「發動（運動、戰爭等）」，作為名詞的意思比較常見，意為「工資」】 it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides【選邊站隊】 as the tension rises.
四、中美關係緊張加劇。不要指望拜登終止對華貿易戰。相反，拜登將會修復與盟友的關係，以更有效的方式對華發起貿易戰。隨著緊張局勢加劇，非洲和東南亞各國會盡力避免在中美貿易戰中選邊站隊。
5. Companies on the front line【在前線】. Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical【地緣政治的】 battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice.【below和above是一對反義詞，前者為「下」，後者為「上」】
五、中美企業在中美兩國衝突中首當其衝。中美衝突的另一條戰線在中美兩國企業之間，隨著商界日益淪為地緣政治戰場，戰火將進一步蔓延到華為和抖音國際版之外的其他企業。在面臨來自國家層面競爭壓力的同時，企業主還將面臨來自員工和客戶的壓力。員工和客戶會要求企業主積極應對氣候變化，崇尚社會公正。
6. After the tech-celeration. In 2020 the pandemic accelerated the adoption of many technological behaviours, from video-conferencing【在線視頻會議】 and online shopping【網購】 to remote working【遠程辦公，即疫情期間居家辦公】 and distance learning【遠程教育，即疫情期間的網課】. In 2021 the extent to which these changes will stick, or snap back【a sudden rebound or change in direction 迅速彈回; 迅速轉向】, will become clearer.
六、疫情後技術加速革新。2020年新冠疫情暴發，促使技術加速革新，在線視頻會議、網購、遠程辦公和遠程教育得到極大發展。2021年這些技術革新將何去何從？是繼續發揮作用，還是在疫情後陷入停滯，我們可以拭目以待。
7. A less footloose world. Tourism will shrink【萎縮】 and change shape, with more emphasis on domestic travel. Airlines, hotel chains and aircraft manufacturers will struggle, as will universities that rely heavily on foreign students. Cultural exchange【文化交流】will suffer, too.
七、人員在世界範圍內的自由流動將更加受限。旅遊業將會萎縮並轉型，更多地轉向國內遊。航空業、連鎖酒店業、飛機製造業，以及那些擁有大批留學生的高等院校，都將舉步維艱。文化交流也將深受影響。
8. An opportunity on climate change. One silver lining【字面意思是「烏雲周圍的白光」，引申意為「（不幸或失望中的）一線希望」】amid the crisis is the chance to take action on climate change, as governments invest in green recovery plans to create jobs and cut emissions.
八、應對氣候變化面臨新機遇。危機中也有轉機，隨著政府投資「綠色復甦計劃」，新增就業崗位，環保減排，各國面臨應對氣候變化的新機遇。
9. The year of déjà vu【the feeling that you have already experienced the things that are happening to you now. 似曾經歷過的感覺】. That is just one example of how the coming year may feel, in many respects, like a second take on 2020, as events including the Olympics, the Dubai Expo and many other political, sporting and commercial gatherings do their best to open a year later than planned. Not all will succeed.
九、似曾經歷過的2021年。2021年就像是2020年的劇情重演，奧林匹克運動會、杜拜世博會和其他多個政治、體育和商業活動將延至2021年舉辦。如果條件不允許，可能有些活動還會繼續推遲。
【短語釋義】a second take on：意為「第二遍，重演」。「take」作為名詞，有一個意思是「（拍攝的）鏡頭」，不難理解，「a second take on」意為「NG後拍攝第二遍」，在上下文中指的是「2021年就像是2020年的劇情重演」。
10. A wake-up call【警鐘】for other risks. Academics and analysts, many of whom have warned of the danger of a pandemic for years, will try to exploit【利用】 a narrow window of opportunity to get 「policymakers to take other neglected risks, such as antibiotic resistance【抗生素抗藥性】 and nuclear terrorism【核恐怖主義】, more seriously. 【take sth. more seriously更加重視…】
十、政策制定者們將會重視其他風險。那些成功預測疫情暴發風險的學者和分析員將會把握機遇，警示政策制定者們應更加重視抗生素抗藥性和核恐怖主義等其他風險。
The coming year promises to be particularly unpredictable, given the interactions between the pandemic, an uneven economic recovery and fractious geopolitics.
在新冠肺炎疫情、不均衡的經濟復甦和棘手的地緣政治的交互影響下，2021年註定充滿不確定性。
And it’s not all doom and gloom. Let the dice fly high—and, whatever cards 2021 may end up dealing you, may the odds be ever in your favour.
2021年的前景不全然暗淡。世事難料，但願好運常伴。
【讀者自測】還記得這十大趨勢分別是什麼嗎？看著關鍵詞，試著複述下加深印象吧！
1 Fights over vaccines.
2 A mixed economic recovery.
3 Patching up the new world disorder.
4 More US-China tensions.
5 Companies on the front line.
6 After the tech-celeration.
7 A less footloose world.
8 An opportunity on climate change.
9 The year of déjà vu.
10 A wake-up call for other risks.
歡迎留言交流英語學習心得，小編水南隨時為你答疑解惑！新的一年，讓我們繼續一心向學！