談判的節骨眼上突然強硬，美國究竟想要什麼？
第十一輪中美經貿高級別磋商進行之際，美方為何突然態度轉變？來看看《華盛頓郵報》專欄作者尤金·羅賓遜（Eugene Robinson）怎麼說：
據報導，川普政府與中國的貿易談判一直進展順利，且本已臨近尾聲。川普指責中國試圖在最後一刻違背承諾，但是，從這位總統的過往歷史看，並非如此。The administration's trade talks with China had reportedly been going well and were supposed to be nearing an end. Trump accused the Chinese of trying to renege on concessions at the last minute, but the president's history suggests otherwise.紐約房地產行業資深人士給我分享了他們所謂的「川普標準談判慣例」——當對方認為事情馬上就要解決了的時候，川普會卡在最後一刻大發雷霆，希望以川普式欺凌來達成更好的協議。Veterans of the high-stakes world of New York real estate have told me about what they described as Trump's standard negotiating practice — pitching some kind of fit at the very last minute, when the other party thought things were settled, in hopes of bullying his way to a better deal.
5月13日，尤金·羅賓遜在《華盛頓郵報》撰寫了一篇題為《川普根本不知道自己在做什麼》的評論文章。
文章中，尤金·羅賓遜稱：
這招可能對無權說「不」的分包商奏效，更甚者可能適用於當場發誓絕不再與川普談生意的開發商。That might work with a subcontractor who doesn't have the power to say no, or even with a fellow developer who vows on the spot never to do business with Trump again. 但是，有哪位有經驗的談判者會認為這點小手腕會對中國，世界第二大經濟強國，奏效呢？But would any skilled negotiator think such a stunt would work with China, the world's second-greatest economic power? 難道中國政府不會以同樣的方法回擊嗎？難道驚慌失措的投資者們不會因此得出結論：那場讓他們提心弔膽的，沒有勝者全是輸家的大規模貿易戰已經打響？Wouldn't the Chinese government have to react in kind? And wouldn't startled investors conclude that their fear of a serious trade war — the kind with no winners, only losers — had been realized?
我猜，川普意識到，中國並沒有真正「支付」關稅，而這些成本實際上是由美國消費者承擔的，他們將為中國製造的商品支付更高的價格。總統不斷在他的推特上撒謊，要麼是希望愚弄那些容易上當受騙的人，要麼就是他對貿易的無知比我想像的還要嚴重。I assume Trump realizes that China isn’t really 「paying」 the tariffs and that the cost is in fact borne by U.S. consumers, who will pay higher prices for made-in-China goods. Either the president constantly lies about this on his Twitter feed, hoping to fool the gullible, or he’s even more clueless about trade than I imagined.
5月10日，川普稱，正在繼續與中國進行親切友好的談判，完全沒必要著急，因為中國正在為2500億美元的商品支付25%的關稅。這些巨額支付將直接進入美國財政部。Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner - there is absolutely no need to rush - as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S.
「關稅將為我們的國家帶來更多財富，甚至超過通過傳統方式達成的某個哪怕非常驚人的交易量，而且更容易，更快捷。」Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do. 「如果我們從農民手中購買150億美元的農產品，遠多於中國購買的數量，我們將有超過850億美元可以用於新的基礎設施、醫療以及其他項目。中國會大大減速，我們會自動加速！」If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up!5月13日，他重申自己的觀點，表示加徵關稅實際上是由中國來買單。「讓美國消費者負擔在中國生效的關稅沒道理。最近有證據表明，只有4個百分點由美國負擔，而21個百分點由中國負擔，因為中國對產品的補貼程度非常之高。」There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree. 此外，如果從非關稅國家或從美國國內（最好的辦法）購買商品，關稅就能完全避免。這就是零關稅！很多被徵收關稅的公司會離開中國，前往越南或亞洲其他類似的國家。這就是為什麼中國非常想要達成協議的原因！Also, the Tariffs can be completely avoided if you buy from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That's Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That's why China wants to make a deal so badly!
CNN也在報導中指出，川普在推文中稱「讓美國消費者支付關稅沒道理」的說法，只是想給自己對中國產品加徵關稅的做法「找理由」。
CNN：事實檢查川普為避免關稅提出的購買美國戰略Fact-checking Trump's Buy America strategy of avoiding tariffs
文章解釋道，大多數受到關稅影響的中國產品，包括服裝和電子元件等，並非在美國製造。對於那些有美國製造可作為替代品的產品，還存在規模化的問題：來自中國的商品數量龐大，而美國公司缺少製造如此大量商品的能力。從這個方面看，川普認為「美國消費者負擔關稅沒道理」是錯誤的。
Most of the Chinese products subject to tariffs simply aren't made in the US, including apparel and electronic components. For those few items where there is an American made alternative, there is also the problem of scalability: US companies simply lack the capacity to create the number of products that come from China. In that regard, Trump's suggestion that there is "no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs" is false.
牛津經濟學院首席美國經濟學家格雷格·達科稱，「這（川普的推文）具有誤導性。從我們進口中國商品的類型和規模來看，要找到替代品，幾乎是不可能的，至少短期內是這樣。」
"That's misguided," said Greg Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, on Monday of Trump's notion that US companies can produce the same products at the same scale as China. "The type of imports that we bring in from China and the scale of the imports ... make substitution, at least immediate substitution, nearly impossible."
川普稱21個百分點的關稅由中國人負擔，事實真的如此嗎？美國媒體和經濟學家的研究恐怕要打臉川普了！
美國國家經濟研究局（The National Bureau of Economic Research）發現，美國消費者承受了關稅增長的衝擊，該機構在其官方推特上發布了一張圖表，清楚顯示自2018年貿易摩擦開始，消費者已經累計付出約3030億美元的關稅。
推特空喊都是虛的，來看看這個事實。
MRT：中美貿易戰升溫，不會很快降溫的3個理由China-US trade war heats up: 3 reasons it won't cool down anytime soon
川普政府曾在今年1月份對進口洗衣機徵收關稅時，提出了一個計算成本的方法，認為由於徵收關稅，美國創造了1800個就業崗位，而這正是該政策的預期結果。
In fact, the Trump administration inadvertently provided an ideal test case for the calculation of these costs when it imposed a tariff on imported washing machines in January. As it turns out, approximately 1,800 jobs were created in the U.S. as a result of this policy, which was exactly its intended effect.
徵收關稅還能增加就業崗位？聽起來這是一項划算的買賣。但事實上，這簡直是無稽之談！
該報導表示，洗衣機和烘乾機的價格上漲實際上讓消費者多支出超過15億美元，這意味著，每增加一個就業機會的成本是81.5萬美元。真是一個昂貴又低效的促進就業的方式！
However, the rise in the price of washing machines and, incidentally, dryers, cost consumers over $1.5 billion. This means each job cost $815,000, which is an expensive and inefficient way to boost U.S. employment.
單方面打響貿易戰是因為「 不公平」？
耶魯大學史蒂芬·羅奇：美國政客想為自己無能找個替罪羊罷了。
近日，世界報業辛迪加網站刊登一篇題為《美國對中國的錯誤描述》的文章，作者史蒂芬·羅奇是美國耶魯大學傑克遜全球事務研究所高級研究員。
文章稱：如今，美國共和黨人與民主黨人罕見地在一個關鍵問題上達成了共識：把困擾美國的所有問題都歸咎於中國。痛批中國從來沒有像現在這樣有著如此廣泛的號召力。
In a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, America's Republicans and Democrats are now on the same page on one key issue: Blaming China for all that ails the United States. China bashing has never had broader appeal.
史蒂芬·羅奇認為，美國政客無非是想找中國給自己當「替罪羊」罷了。
說到貿易。2018年，美國是同中國有著4190億美元的商品貿易逆差。但川普——以及大多數美國政界人士不會承認的是，2018年美國同102個國家之間存在貿易逆差。
Consider trade. In 2018, the US had a $419 billion merchandise trade deficit with China. But what Trump – and most other US politicians – won't admit is that the US ran trade deficits with 102 countries in 2018.
這反映了美國國內儲蓄嚴重不足。而國內儲蓄不足在很大程度上正是國會和總統不計後果地批准預算赤字造成的。
This reflects a profound shortfall of domestic saving, owing in large part to the reckless budget deficits approved by none other than Congress and the president.
也沒有人承認供應鏈扭曲的問題。這個問題源於，有些進口產品是其他國家製造的，只是在中國組裝和出貨而已。僅這點估計就將美中貿易不平衡誇大了35%到40%。
Nor is there any recognition of supply-chain distortions – arising from inputs made in other countries but assembled and shipped from China – that are estimated to overstate the US-China trade imbalance by as much as 35-40%.
顯然，把中國說成是「讓美國再次偉大」的主要障礙會輕鬆容易得多。
Apparently, it is much easier to vilify China as the major obstacle to making America great again.
再來看看美國提出的「智慧財產權盜竊」問題。
耶魯大學史蒂芬·羅奇認為，有兩個關鍵點非常值得質疑：
1. 數據到底有多少水分；
2.「強制」？精明大美國商人會把核心技術轉給競爭對手？
現在大家普遍接受的「真相」是中國每年都在竊取價值數千億美元的美國智慧財產權，如同一把尖刀插進了美國高超創新技藝的核心。
It is now accepted 「truth」 that China is stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of US intellectual property each year, driving a stake into the heart of America's innovative prowess.
美國智慧財產權防盜委員會估計，2017年，智慧財產權盜竊讓美國經濟付出了2250億到6000億美元的代價。
According to the accepted source of this claim, the so-called IP Commission, in 2017 IP theft cost the US economy between $225 and $600 billion.
撇開大得離譜的數字估算範圍，上述數字所依據的「代理模型」是不可靠的。該模型試圖通過毒品走私、貪汙腐敗、職業欺詐和非法資金流動等不法活動來評估被竊取的商業機密。
Leaving aside the ridiculously broad range of such an estimate, the figures rest on flimsy evidence derived from dubious 「proxy modeling」 that attempts to value stolen trade secrets via nefarious activities such as narcotics trafficking, corruption, occupational fraud, and illicit financial flows.
中國盜竊智慧財產權的數據來自美國海關與邊境巡邏部門。該部門報告說，它們2015年總計繳獲了13.5億美元的盜版和假冒商品。美國用同樣可疑的模型在這個小數目的基礎上進行推測，從而得到了全國範圍的總估計值，並將總數的87%歸罪於中國。
The Chinese piece of this alleged theft comes from US Customs and Border Patrol data, which reported $1.35 billion in seizures of total counterfeit and pirated goods back in 2015. Equally dubious models extrapolate this tiny sum into an aggregate guesstimate for the US and impute 87% of the total to China.
怎麼個歸罪法，跟CD君一起來看看吧！
為了把中國竊取美國智慧財產權的「罪名」坐實，美國又搬出「301條款」，從中尋找為向中國加徵關稅的基本依據。
2018年3月，美國貿易代表公布了「301調查」結果報告，並在其中大肆渲染了轉移注意力的次要事實：美國企業與其中國合資夥伴之間的強制技術轉讓。
Then there is the red herring emphasized in the Section 301 report published by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in March 2018, which provides the foundational justification for tariffs levied on China: forced technology transfer between US companies and their Chinese joint venture (JV) partners.
這裡的關鍵詞是「強制」，暗示那些與中國同行自願籤訂合同協議的無辜美國企業是被迫放棄其專有技術，以求在中國開展業務。
The key word is 「forced,」 which implies that innocent US companies that enter willingly into contractual agreements with Chinese counterparts are coerced into surrendering their proprietary technologies in order to do business in the country.
可以肯定的是，合資企業毫無疑問需要共享人員、業務戰略、運營平臺和產品設計。但指控稱這些都是強制的，而且是基於這樣一種假設：成熟的美國跨國公司蠢到把核心專有技術交給它們的中國合作夥伴。
To be sure, JVs obviously entail a sharing of people, business strategies, operating platforms, and product designs. But the charge is coercion, which is inseparable from the presumption that sophisticated US multinationals are dumb enough to turn over core proprietary technologies to their Chinese partners.
這是另一個令人震驚的弱證據強指控的例子。令人難以置信的是，美國貿易代表辦公室實際上在301條款報告（第19頁）中承認，沒有確鑿的證據可以證實這些「隱性操作」。
This is another shocking example of soft evidence for a hard allegation. Incredibly, the USTR actually admits in the Section 301 report (on page 19) that there is no hard evidence to confirm these 「implicit practices.」
一系列操作，讓貿易「不公平」變成了最冠冕堂皇的理由。
5月13日，川普再次搬出「不公平」的論調，又重複了一遍，中國如何長期佔美國便宜，才得以有今天的發展。
China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job).
美國作為世界貿易規則的主要制定者，又擁有成熟的商業體系，雙方買賣全靠自願，完全市場選擇的中美貿易怎麼就變成「不公平」了。
過去40多年，美國人與中國人做生意都是虧本買賣？資本從來就是逐利的，資本主義國家的商人會做虧本買賣，還一幹就40多年？站得住腳麼？
愛荷華州參議員：美國上次貿易戰結局，至今掛在恥辱柱上
據《今日美國》（USA TODAY）報導，5月15日，愛荷華州參議員查克·格拉斯利(Chuck Grassley)言辭激烈地說，全球經濟大蕭條、二戰、希特勒，我就是想提醒川普，翻翻歷史看看貿易戰究竟帶來了什麼！
1930年的關稅法帶來的是全世界的經濟蕭條，希特勒的崛起和二戰的爆發。
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley on Wednesday blamed a 1930 tariff law for bringing about the Great Depression, the rise of Adolf Hitler and World War II.
「總統先生說他喜歡關稅是吧。我想提醒他，斯姆特·霍利關稅法導致了經濟大蕭條，導致了希特勒，導致了二戰。結果是什麼？6000萬人喪生，」格拉斯利說。
"As I like to tell the president when he says he likes tariffs, I try to remind him that Smoot-Hawley brought about the Great Depression, brought about Adolf Hitler, brought about World War II, brought about 60 million people losing their lives as a result of it," Grassley said.
格拉斯利扒開了血淋淋的歷史教訓：
1930年，時任總統赫伯特·胡佛籤署了斯姆特·霍利關稅法，提高了各個領域產品的關稅（該法案將2000多種進口商品關稅提升到歷史最高水平）。美國參議院網站將其描述為「國會歷史上最具災難性的法令之一」，並介紹稱美國的貿易夥伴對美國採取了報復性關稅措施，加劇了經濟大蕭條。
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which President Herbert Hoover signed in 1930, raised tariffs on a variety of products. The U.S. Senate's website describes the law as "among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history" and said that the United States' trading partners retaliated with their own tariffs, worsening the Great Depression.
格拉斯利談到同為愛荷華共和黨人的胡佛：「他籤署了斯姆特·霍利關稅法。然後呢，美國變成了貿易保護主義者，全世界都成了貿易保護主義者。這一舉措讓世界貿易停滯不前，甚至可能是全球經濟大蕭條的罪魁禍首。
Grassley said of Hoover, a fellow Iowa Republican: "He signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill, and the United States became protectionist, the world became protectionist. It shut down world trade and probably contributed more than any other decision to the Great Depression becoming worldwide.
斯姆特·霍利關稅法（The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act）於1930年6月17日經籤署成為法律，該法案將2000多種進口商品關稅提升到歷史最高水平。當時在美國，有1028名經濟學家籤署了一項請願書抵制該法案；而在該法案通過之後，許多國家對美國採取了報復性關稅措施，使美國的進口額和出口額都驟降50%以上。
我想告訴總統先生，全球化幫了所有人，自由貿易幫了所有人。
"I like to tell the president that globalism has helped everybody. Freeing up trade has helped everybody," Grassley said.
樁樁件件的案例，觸目驚心的數據，鮮血淋漓的歷史……美國媒體和經濟學家們披露的這些事實，美分們能聽進去多少？
編輯：王瑜、胡雨濛
實習生：戚琦、陳玉琪
中國日報（ID：chinadailywx）綜合華盛頓郵報、CNN、美國報業辛迪加、今日美國等報導