來源：英倫投資客
8月14日，英國央行首席經濟學家Andy Haldane在《每日郵報》發表署名文章，表達其對英國經濟的最新看法。
Andy Haldane認為這次疫情帶來的影響並不足以與之前的經濟大蕭條相提並論，並且政府史無前例的財政措施，能保護大家免受災難性的損失。
文章中，Andy Haldane特別強調了民眾的信心，對恢復經濟的重要性，也指出疫情不只是給英國經濟帶來了負面影響，也帶動了線上經濟，加速了產業洗牌。
對於經濟復甦，英國央行首席經濟學家也承認，雖然政府一系列刺激政策已經起了效果，經濟在平穩復甦中，但完全恢復尚需時日。
以下是親筆全文，由英倫投資客逐字翻譯，英文附於文末：
作者：AndyHaldane 英國央行首席經濟學家 2020年8月14日
我知道，現在英國各地的人都感到焦慮。鑑於持續的悲觀新聞，許多人、許多公司對英國經濟的信心很低，不確定性很高。
新冠疫情是一場公共衛生危機，對於每個人來說，可能是一場個人悲劇，對整個社會來說，則可能是一場經濟危機。
在封鎖期間，整個英國的經濟活動幾乎在一夜之間崩潰了大約四分之一，這是一個世紀以來最大的跌幅。根據英格蘭銀行的最新預測，到今年年底，失業率將上升至7.5％左右，即約250萬人。
面對前所未有的經濟風險，世界各地的政府和中央銀行都提供了前所未有的財政支持。
在英國，政府已制定了支持計劃，例如工資補貼計劃和企業無息貸款計劃。要知道，英國央行在和平時期並沒有大規模幹預的先例。目前我們已將英國的利率降低至接近零，並另外宣布了3000億英鎊的量化寬鬆計劃。
這種支持就是一個巨大的保障政策，可以保護人們的收入和工作，並降低其借貸成本。沒有這些，我們可能會失去數百萬個工作機會，抵押和貸款的借貸成本將會上升。
未來，英國央行將會繼續為經濟提供支持，直到經濟進入穩定復甦，我們認為，這種保障政策應該要成為人們獲得信心的來源。
另外，我還想提一個對經濟保持謹慎樂觀的原因，那就是英國經濟其實已經在悄悄復甦。
英國的經濟活動並沒有像石頭般墜落。事實上，它已經上升了三個多月，比任何人預期的都要早。它的恢復速度也遠超預期。
Economic activity in the UK is not falling like a stone. In fact, it has now been rising for more than three months, sooner than anyone expected. It has also recovered far faster than anyone expected.
我估計，在過去三個月中，英國經濟平均每周增長約1％。儘管這依然大大低於疫情之前的水平，但英國很可能已經至少挽回了一半的損失。
拉動英國經濟的主要動力是消費。到6月，零售支出已經恢復到了疫情之前的水平。
雖然高街店鋪關了，但民眾把錢花在了別的地方。在大街小巷保持安靜的同時，英國的線上消費猛增了70％以上。餐館和酒吧的收入仍然很低，但外賣、電子產品和DIY產品的支出卻猛增。
英國房產和汽車市場也反彈到了疫情之前的水平，再次遠超預期。英國央行預計這種復甦將繼續下去。儘管不確定性很大，但我們預計英國下半年GDP將增長20％以上，實現有記錄以來的最快季度增長。
不過，就業市場的恢復將需要更長的時間。但我們也要看到，隨著支出和商業信心的回升，失業風險已經有所降低，英國央行的最新預測顯示，失業人數將比三個月前減少約70萬。
正如每天新增的新冠病例一樣，我們面臨的不確定性仍然很高，並且對病毒的擔憂確實存在。
但在這樣的不確定時期，最重要的是，不要讓整天刷屏的壞消息淹沒好的經濟新聞。
人們對未來恐懼，與病毒一樣具有傳染性，而且，如果不加以制止，恐懼將會迅速蔓延。因此在這段時間，銀行和政府提供的保障非常重要。
我們需要認識到正在復甦的經濟勢頭，和我們面前的機遇。
現在是時候換一種方式看待經濟了，比如在挽回一半損失後，我們可以將經濟之瓶視為半滿，而非半空。
畢竟，民眾對經濟的信心也是會傳染的，如果絕大部分人有信心，消費、工作、收入也能良性循環。
在這樣的困難時期，增強對未來經濟的信心，真的至關重要。
英國央行首席經濟學家署名文章原文：
ANDY HALDANE，14 August 2020
People right across the UK are feeling anxious. Confidence among households and businesses is low and uncertainty sky-high, not surprisingly given the steady stream of gloomy news.
Covid is a public health crisis and, for many, a personal tragedy. But it is an economic crisis too for many people.
During lockdown, economic activity across the UK collapsed almost overnight by around a quarter, the largest fall for a century. On the Bank of England's latest forecasts, unemployment is set to rise to around 7.5 per cent by the end of the year, or around 2.5million people.
Facing unprecedented economic risks, governments and central banks around the world have provided unprecedented degrees of financial support.
In the UK, the Government has put in place support schemes such as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, or furlough. There is no peacetime precedent for intervention on this scale. The Bank of England has cut UK interest rates to close to zero, along with an additional 300billion of so-called quantitative easing.
This support has acted like a gigantic insurance policy, protecting people's incomes and jobs and reducing their borrowing costs. Without it, many millions more jobs would have been lost and borrowing costs on mortgages and loans would have risen.
The Bank will continue to support the economy until recovery is well under way, so this insurance policy should be a source of comfort and confidence. And there is a second reason for cautious optimism. The foundations for an economic recovery - a rapid one - are already in place, hiding in plain sight.
Economic activity in the UK is not falling like a stone. In fact, it has now been rising for more than three months, sooner than anyone expected. It has also recovered far faster than anyone expected.
Over the past three months, I estimate the economy has been rising, on average, by around 1 per cent per week. While that leaves activity well below pre-Covid levels, the UK has already recovered perhaps half of its losses.
The motor has been the British consumer. Retail spending had, by June, already recovered its pre-Covid levels.
Facing shuttered shops, people spent their money differently. While high streets remain quiet, online sales have shot up by over 70 per cent. Restaurant and pub takings are still well down, but spending on takeaways, electrical goods and DIY products has rocketed.
The housing and car markets have also bounced back to pre-Covid levels, again far faster than expected. The Bank expects this recovery to continue. While uncertainty is great, GDP is expected to rise by over 20 per cent in the second half of the year - by far the fastest rise since quarterly records began.
The recovery in jobs will take longer. Nonetheless, as spending and business confidence have picked up, risks to jobs have receded too. The Bank's latest forecast suggests around 700,000 fewer jobs would be lost than it expected three months ago.
Uncertainty is still high and concerns about the virus are real, as the pick-up in new Covid cases illustrates.
But, at uncertain times like this, it is important that good economic news is not drowned out by the bad and the ugly.
Fear can be as contagious as the virus itself - and, left unchecked, could all too quickly become self-fulfilling. That is why the insurance provided by the Bank and the Government is so important.
We should recognise the economic momentum already in place and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Having recovered half of its losses, now is the time to see the economic glass as half-full not half-empty. Public confidence is contagious too, generating a virtuous circle of spending, jobs and incomes.
At difficult times like these, boosting confidence about our financial future would reap its own economic reward.