文/周一駿
1951年，二十世紀福克斯發行了一部黑白電影《地球停轉之日》，影片中一個強大的外星來客，用外科手術式的手段幫助人類改正惡習。2016年11月8日，印度真實地經歷了電影中的場景，總理莫迪晚間8點發表電視講話，突然宣布廢除正在流通的面值為500和1000盧比的紙幣，當日午夜12點鐘之後，這兩種紙幣將變成「廢紙」。
In 1951, 20th Century Fox released a movie called The Day the Earth Stood Still, in which a powerful alien attempts to help humans correct bad habits through surgical means. On November 8, 2016, India experienced a similar situation when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500 and 1,000 rupee bills would no longer circulate. When midnight struck, the country’s two largest bills transformed into waste paper.
這些天，整個印度大陸正處在停轉的時刻，每人每日4000盧比的新幣兌換量，讓所有國民倍受煎熬，甚至駐印的各國使團、通訊社和外資企業也都走向街頭，加入長達數小時的排隊換鈔之旅，體味躺槍的無奈。
The development seems to have paralyzed the entire country for days. Citizens suffered due to the limit of 4,000 rupees of new bills per person per day. Even envoys, news agencies and foreign enterprises in India joined the long lines outside banks across the country with helplessness.
莫迪的反對者們，也正利用民眾的負面情緒，掀起一浪高過一浪的質疑。但情緒化無助於做出冷靜的判斷，拋開宣洩，釐清以下幾點基本事實，將有助於我們從更具建設性的視角，觀察整個事件。
Capitalizing on the situation, Modi’s rivals are using the negative public sentiment to strengthen opposition. But emotions won’t lead to ideal resolutions. Clarifying the basics will help to understand the incident from a more constructive perspective.
莫迪的代價
The Price Paid by Modi
在一個現金為王的社會，舊版500和1000面額盧比共計佔印度貨幣流通總量的86%（據印度央行此前公布的數據，共達14萬億盧比，約合2170億美元）。
In a society where the vast majority of transactions are still performed with cash, 500 and 1000 rupee denomination bills amounted to 14 trillion rupees, or around 217 billion USD, accounting for 86% of the currency circulating in India, according to data released by the Central Bank of India.
△ 印度舊版500面額盧比。
推行如此傷筋動骨的政策，莫迪必須得到廣泛而堅定的支持，所有私藏不當現金收入的人都將面臨一個兩難選擇：要麼眼睜睜看著這些財富作廢，要麼明晃晃向政府展示保險柜。此時，莫迪個人乃至其九族身上，任何一點微小的經濟汙點，都將點燃將他自己置於死地的導火索。
To implement such a drastic policy, Modi needed extensive and solid support. Those holding illegal cash will face a dilemma: do nothing and watch the money lose value or report their holdings to the government. The situation is so precarious that even the smallest of improperly acquired gains by people in Modi’s inner circle, especially Modi himself, would lead to political destruction.
此外，我們也可以想像，在核心閣僚中，莫迪設置了多麼精彩的一手「道德綁架」大戲——在莫迪的大義凌然面前，核心閣僚們只能選擇支持，因為任何反對或猶豫，都會被解讀成「心裡有鬼」。這期間，又有多少貪腐官員體會了「啞巴吃黃連，有苦說不出」的政治諷刺劇。
Modi has constructed the appearance of high moral ground, but ministers must loyally endorse Modi’s every move or risk a 「guilty」 label. During this period, perhaps corrupt officials will be left to suffer in silence 「like an idiot eating a bitter herb.」
國民的代價
The Price Paid by Citizens
不論這次新政未來的收益如何深遠，客觀而言，印度國民在這次新政中付出了代價。這樣的代價分為可以避免的和無法避免的兩類。
Regardless of any potential future benefits, Indians objectively paid a price for the policy. The costs include both those that could have been avoided and those that could not have been.
在可以避免的代價清單中，有一項是印度政府必須自省的：換發貨幣耗資巨大，費用最終將由國民承擔，但由於政府的行政效率，新版貨幣的防偽措施與舊幣相比沒有質的提升，這意味著不久以後的將來，印度國民極可能再承擔一次換幣的成本。而諷刺的是，由於新幣是突然曝光，熟悉程度低且防偽技術未更新，市場上已經出現了2000盧比的假幣。
Among the avoidable costs: The people will pay for the actual price of the currency transformation. Due to lacking governmental administrative efficiency, anti-counterfeiting measures have not improved significantly with the new currency. So another version could be released soon. Because the new notes were issued suddenly, the public has not enough time to be familiar with them. Lawbreakers take advantage of this to make counterfeit. The fake new 2000 rupees bills of have already emerged.
△ 11月30日，在印度首都新德裡，市民在市中心的一處ATM機前排隊取現。
而另一些代價，則不能對莫迪政府求全責備。比如有人指責銀行系統的ATM應提前做好軟硬體升級，以減輕對民眾的影響。執行層給出的解釋是情有可原的——由於廢除舊版的計劃需要保密，因此如果事前大規模升級ATM會暴露這項計劃，因此，這樣的陣痛，是一個國家成長中必經的坎坷。
Some problems are not the Modi administration’s fault. For example, some have argued that ATMs should have software and hardware upgrades to mitigate the impact on the public. The government’s reasoning on this issue is sound: The plan to abolish the old notes had to be kept confidential, and a large-scale upgrade of ATMs would have exposed the plan. Some growing pains are unavoidable during the growth of a country.
最高法院的態度
Attitude of the Supreme Court
印度司法高度獨立，在這個以司法為中心的憲政國度，一個政治家，無論他多麼具有個人魅力，都不能為所欲為。在印度的行政效率遭質疑的同時，這個國家對根本國策的審慎卻一直令人尊敬。
India’s judiciary is highly independent. In a country constructed around the rule of law, politicians cannot do whatever they please no matter how charismatic they are. India’s administrative efficiency has been questioned, but the government’s prudence about fundamental policies has always been respected.
莫迪的貨幣新政並沒有越過最高法院的監管，相反，他正經受著考驗。莫迪政府已向最高法院提交了一份補充說明，呼籲其支持。而反對者們同樣用司法程序，合理地表達著他們的擔憂：由律師Sangam Lal Pandey提起的「公共利益訴訟」認為，莫迪頒布的新政，沒有給普通大眾提供足夠的過渡時間，這將導致民眾面臨許多困難和不適；Vivek Narayan Sharma律師的訴訟請求則認為，這一政策「侵犯了公民的生活和貿易權利，以及其他權利」。
Modi’s move did not miss the supervision from Supreme Court in any way. Actually, the new policy is being scrutinized by the Supreme Court. The Modi administration submitted a supplementary note to the Supreme Court to request its support. Opponents used the same judicial procedure to express their concerns: Attorney Sangam Lal Pandey mentioned during 「public interest litigation」 that Modi’s new deal did not provide enough time for the public to transition smoothly, causing many to face difficulties and discomfort; lawyer Vivek Narayan Sharma argued that the policy 「violated the life and trade rights and other rights of citizens.」
正如一位尼赫魯大學的助理教授所言：「在憲法設定的規則內，每一方充分表達自己的觀點，並經過協商達成一致，這不正是一個現代社會中最勇敢高尚的行為嗎？」
An assistant professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University expressed his opinion thusly: 「Every party can fully express their views within the constitution, and discuss until an agreement is reached. Isn’t this the reflection of a most noble modern society?」
蒼蠅的對策與老虎的對策
Strategies against 「Flies and Tigers」
莫迪政府的貨幣新政規定：居民將價值25萬盧比（約合2.5萬人民幣）的舊幣存到銀行時，政府不予追問，但超過這個限額後，如果居民的存儲與合理收入範圍不符，則將面臨高達200%的懲罰性稅收。
The Modi administration’s new provisions stipulate that the government shall not question residents about amounts less than 250,000 rupees when old bills are exchanged. When someone does surpass this limit, however, if the person’s income statement does not align with the volume of funds, he or she could face a 200 percent punitive tax.
無數歷史證明，一旦政府出臺一項政策，充滿智慧的民間，總能精確地找到並窮儘其所有的漏洞，壞人和貪官也不例外。
History has shown countless times that after a government issues a policy, the people always quickly discover every loophole. Criminals and corrupt officials are not exceptions.
△ 廢幣政策頒布後，印度黃金店鋪前排起了長龍，直至深夜黃金依然交投活躍。
政策頒布之後，第一個被發現的bug是購買黃金，這樣既能變現紙幣，又不必支付國家的高額懲罰性稅收。眾人湧入金店，一些珠寶店在午夜之後依然營業。市場立刻對此作出反應，印度黃金零售價在短短10多個小時內暴漲了15%—20%，有些地方價格甚至上漲至2294美元/盎司。
After the launch of the policy, the first loophole to emerge was avoidance by holding gold. If it is kept in gold, sums much larger than the threshold can be cashed in for bills without worry about the punitive taxes. So many poured into gold and jewelry shops that stayed open late into the night. The market immediately responded: India’s retail gold price jumped 15 to 20 percent in just over 10 hours, and prices rose to as high as $2294 per ounce in some places.
但反對貨幣新政的批評者認為，這些政策雖然對「蒼蠅級別」的貪官作用顯著，卻對「老虎級別」的貪官們影響不大，因為他們早已用現金購買了大量土地，或是在瑞士銀行開設帳戶。
Critics of the move argue that these policies would only snare the corrupt officials who are 「flies,」 but not the 「tigers,」 who have already converted the cash into real estate or moved it to Swiss bank accounts.
國家的長遠利益與民眾認知力的極限
India’s Long-term Interests vs. Short-term Pains
任何政治家，其實都在做一個危險的遊戲，就是在國家的長遠利益與當時民眾認知力的極限之間，尋求一個微妙的平衡。
Every politician walks the tightrope between the long-term interests of the country and the current sentiments of the people.
莫迪走出了勇敢的一步，此次貨幣新政，短期看可以打擊來路不明的黑錢，清理市場上的假幣，實現反腐和反恐的目的，更重要的是，長遠來看，將規範稅收，促進行動支付，推動電子商務。但這個在遠方田野與眼前苟且之間走鋼絲的遊戲，需要莫迪把握好節奏並展現出足夠的政治智慧。
Modi took the courageous step of reforming India’s currency system via an attempt to expose black money quickly and reduce counterfeit money in the market, cracking down on rampant corruption and terrorism, and more importantly, in the long run, promoting stability of tax revenues, mobile payments and e-commerce. But to win the dangerous struggle between distant targets and immediate interests, Modi must feel the rhythm of the move and demonstrate political shrewdness.
無論結果如何，我個人都對莫迪總理致以敬意，對於那些勇敢的改革者，我們都應投以更多的寬容與鼓勵。正如電影中描述的那樣，地球停轉之日，正是一個社會驅動新一輪自轉的開始。
No matter the outcome, I personally commend Prime Minister Modi. We should show more tolerance and encourage to these brave reformers. As described in The Day the Earth Stood Still, when the planet stops spinning, a new social driver will emerge.
本文作者周一駿博士為前中國駐印度外交官、上海國際問題研究院比較政治與公共政策研究所助理研究員。
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