ECONOMIST: The pandemic could undercut Africa’s precarious progress
經濟學人：這種流行病可能會削弱非洲岌岌可危的進步
Africans need jabs and loans, sharpish
非洲人急需刺戳和貸款
In the years before covid-19 sub-Saharan Africans were not only the world’s youngest people, with a median age of less than 20, they were also some of the most optimistic. Just 12% of Japanese told pollsters they thought their lives would improve over the following 15 years, compared with 78% of Kenyans. Nigerians and Senegalese were even more upbeat.
在新冠肺炎之前的幾年裡，撒哈拉以南的非洲人不僅是世界上最年輕的人，平均年齡不到20歲，他們也是最樂觀的人。只有12%的日本人告訴民意測驗專家，他們認為他們的生活在接下來的15年裡會有所改善，相比之下，78%的肯亞人這樣認為。奈及利亞人和塞內加爾人甚至更樂觀。
The pandemic has made it harder to be sunny. When covid-19 first struck, a lot of pundits thought Africans might be spared the worst, because so many are young or work on the land (and would thus be little affected by lockdowns). Yet it now looks as if the virus will leave more lasting scars in Africa than elsewhere. Whereas rich countries can hope for a rapid economic rebound as they vaccinate their people, Africa is years away from jabbing enough to achieve general immunity. The imf predicts it will be the slowest-growing large region this year. Repeated waves of infection will also disrupt the schooling of millions, putting at risk the educational and demographic trends that are among Africa’s best reasons to be hopeful.
大流行讓陽光更加難以普照。當新冠肺炎第一次襲擊時，許多專家認為非洲人可能會倖免於難，因為很多人還年輕或者在土地上工作(因此不會受到封鎖的影響)。然而現在看來，這種病毒在非洲留下的傷疤似乎比在其他地方更持久。富裕國家在給本國人民接種疫苗的同時，可以指望經濟快速反彈，而非洲距離實現全面免疫還有數年的時間。這國際貨幣基金組織(international monetary fund)預測它將是今年增長最慢的大區域。反覆的感染浪潮還將擾亂數百萬人的學校教育，使教育和人口趨勢面臨風險，而這些趨勢是非洲充滿希望的最佳理由。
Optimism about Africa began before the pandemic, with a long commodities boom in the years to 2014, which fuelled rapid economic growth. The share of Africans who were extremely poor declined from 56% in 2003 to 40% in 2018. And many more children started attending school. In Ethiopia, for instance, almost all children were enrolled in primary school by the time of the pandemic, up from 65% in 2003. Better-educated children earn more as adults. If female, they also go on to have smaller families and devote more effort to educating each child. Africa’s demographic transition promised future prosperity.
對非洲的樂觀情緒始於疫情爆發前，在截至2014年的幾年裡，非洲經歷了長期的大宗商品繁榮，推動了經濟的快速增長。非洲極端貧困人口的比例從2003年的56%下降到2018年的40%。更多的孩子開始上學。例如，在衣索比亞，大流行發生時，幾乎所有兒童都上了小學，比2003年的65%有所上升。受過良好教育的孩子成年後掙得更多。如果是女性，他們也會有更小的家庭，並投入更多的精力來教育每個孩子。非洲的人口轉變預示著未來的繁榮。
When the first wave of covid-19 hit, Africa seemed to weather it well. Sub-Saharan gdp fell by 2.6% in 2020, compared with 3.5% for the world. Of the 24 countries that posted any growth at all, 11 were in sub-Saharan Africa. Its official covid-19 statistics look good, too: with 14% of the global population, it has about 3% of recorded cases and deaths. Alas, those statistics are surely misleading. Few African countries have tested enough to have any real sense of how many cases they have suffered. And few record more than a fraction of deaths. If South Africa, which tests a lot, is any guide, cases and deaths in the rest of Africa are much higher than reported.
當第一波新冠肺炎來襲時，非洲似乎挺過來了。撒哈拉以南國內生產總值2020年下降了2.6%，相比之下全球為3.5%。在24個實現增長的國家中，有11個位於撒哈拉以南非洲。它的官方新冠肺炎統計數據看起來也不錯:佔全球人口14%的中國，有大約3%的病例和死亡記錄。唉，這些統計數據肯定會誤導人。很少有非洲國家已經進行了足夠的測試，能夠真正感覺到它們遭受了多少病例。很少有人記錄超過一小部分的死亡。如果以大量檢測的南非為參照，非洲其他地區的病例和死亡人數要比報導的高得多。
The greatest harm is likely to come not from the immediate impact of the pandemic, but rather from its lingering effects on economies, households and societies (see article). Start with Africa’s economies. Before the pandemic, growth was already slowing. Because the region’s population is growing by 2.7% a year, about twice the pace of Asia’s, Africa needs at least as much economic expansion merely to stand still. Yet gdp has lagged behind population growth since 2016.
最大的危害很可能不是來自大流行的直接影響，而是來自它對經濟、家庭和社會的長期影響文章).從非洲經濟開始。在大流行之前，增長已經放緩。因為該地區的人口正以每年2.7%的速度增長，大約是亞洲的兩倍，非洲至少需要同樣多的經濟擴張才能保持穩定。迄今國內生產總值自2016年以來一直落後於人口增長。
What is more, governments entered the crisis with strained balance-sheets. By the end of 2019, public debt was 62% of gdp; in 2020 it rose to 70%. Rich countries can borrow cheaply and pay citizens to stay at home: on average they have spent more than 7% of gdp cushioning the shock of covid-19. African governments have spent only 3% of gdp, and even that was a burden. Fully 46 introduced social-welfare grants, but they did not stop 32m people falling into extreme poverty. To avoid debt crises, many African governments may curtail spending on infrastructure, too. This will stymie growth. Without better ports, roads and power supplies, Africa will reap fewer benefits from a continental free-trade deal that came into effect last month.
更重要的是，政府進入危機時資產負債表緊張。截至2019年底，公共債務佔國內生產總值的62%國內生產總值；2020年，這一比例升至70%。富裕國家可以低成本借款，並支付給公民留在國內的費用:平均而言，他們已經花費了國內生產總值的7%以上國內生產總值緩衝新冠肺炎的衝擊。非洲政府僅花費了國內生產總值，即使這是一個負擔。足足有46個國家引入了社會福利補助，但它們並沒有阻止3200萬人陷入極端貧困。為了避免債務危機，許多非洲政府也可能削減基礎設施支出。這將阻礙增長。如果沒有更好的港口、道路和電力供應，非洲將從上月生效的大陸自由貿易協定中獲得更少的好處。
Africa is at the back of the queue for vaccines, alas. The Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister organisation, predicts the region will struggle to obtain enough doses to reach herd immunity before 2024. As much of the rest of the world gets back to work, travel and play, Africa could find that covid-19 is, in effect, endemic. The travellers and tourists who help generate almost 9% of gdp will stay away. Lockdowns and curfews will choke markets and bars. Most worrying, schools could close again.
唉，非洲排在疫苗隊伍的後面。我們的姐妹組織經濟學家情報部門預測，該地區將很難在2024年前獲得足夠的劑量來達到群體免疫。隨著世界上其他大部分地區重新開始工作、旅遊和娛樂，非洲可能會發現新冠肺炎實際上是一個地方病。旅行者和遊客幫助創造了近9%的國內生產總值會遠離。封鎖和宵禁會阻塞市場和酒吧。最令人擔憂的是，學校可能會再次關閉。
Sub-Saharan classrooms have been fully or partly shut for 23 weeks, above the global average. Since half of Africans are without electricity, never mind laptops and Wi-Fi, remote learning is tricky. Modelling by the World Bank suggests that the classes already forgone will cost close to $500bn in future earnings, or almost $7,000 per child. This is a huge sum in a part of the world where the average gdp per person is less than $1,600 a year.
撒哈拉以南的教室已經全部或部分關閉23周，高於全球平均水平。由於一半的非洲人沒有電，更不用說筆記本電腦和無線網絡了，遠程學習很棘手。世界銀行(World Bank)的模型顯示，已經放棄的課程未來的收入將接近5000億美元，相當於每個孩子近7，000美元。這是一個巨大的數目，因為在世界的某個地方國內生產總值每人每年不到1600美元。
To make matters worse, many children—mostly girls—will never go back to their books. Many will become child labourers or brides. In one coastal area of Kenya, for example, only 388 of the 946 schoolgirls who got pregnant during the school shutdown last year have resumed their studies. It is too soon to know how many girls will stay away for good, but if large numbers do, Africa’s demographic transition may be at risk. In general those with no schooling go on to have six or more children each. This falls to about four for women who finish primary school and two for secondary school.
更糟糕的是，許多孩子——大多數是女孩——再也不會回到他們的書本上。許多人將成為童工或新娘。例如，在肯亞的一個沿海地區，在去年學校停課期間懷孕的946名女學生中，只有388人恢復了學業。現在知道有多少女孩會永遠離開還為時過早，但如果有大量女孩離開，非洲的人口結構轉型可能會面臨風險。一般來說，那些沒上過學的人每人會有六個或更多的孩子。完成小學教育的女性大約有4人，完成中學教育的女性有2人。
Two things need to happen urgently to mitigate Africa’s covid-induced calamity. First, people must be vaccinated more quickly than on current plans. Many African governments, wary of the cost, have been slow to order vaccines. Yet the returns to spending on vaccination are likely to be far higher than on just about anything else. The approval of new vaccines promises to help ease global shortages. Rich countries, which have ordered more than they need, should donate excess stocks and money to covax, the global programme for pooling the purchase and allocation of vaccines.
為了減輕非洲由冠狀病毒引發的災難，有兩件事需要緊急處理。首先，人們必須比目前的計劃更快地接種疫苗。許多擔心成本的非洲政府遲遲不訂購疫苗。然而，疫苗接種支出的回報可能遠遠高於其他任何項目。新疫苗的批准有望幫助緩解全球短缺。富裕國家已經訂購了超過他們需要的東西，應該把多餘的庫存和錢捐給covax全球疫苗採購和分配聯合方案。
When the jabbing is done戳完以後Even if vaccines come soon, African treasuries will still need help to avoid drawn-out debt crises and growth-choking cuts to spending. Lenders such as the World Bank and imf should offer more cheap loans, and support proposals by the African Development Bank and others to woo more private capital.
即使疫苗很快問世，非洲國債仍將需要幫助，以避免曠日持久的債務危機和抑制增長的支出削減。世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織等貸款機構國際貨幣基金組織(international monetary fund)應該提供更多的低息貸款，支持非洲發展銀行和其他機構吸引更多私人資本的提議。
Africa’s cries for help—whether in the form of jabs or loans—risk being lost amid the tumult of a truly global crisis. But the fragility of African economies and societies is a reason to act swiftly. It is also in outsiders』 interest to help. So long as the virus is rampant somewhere, it can mutate and spread anywhere.
非洲的求助呼聲——無論是以打擊還是貸款的形式——都有可能在一場真正的全球危機的混亂中消失。但非洲經濟和社會的脆弱性是迅速採取行動的一個原因。幫助也符合外人的利益。只要病毒在某個地方猖獗，它就可以變異並傳播到任何地方。
本文章英文原文來自經濟學人，本人僅提供給大家一個觀察國外文章的平臺，文章內容不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/02/06/the-pandemic-could-undercut-africas-precarious-progress
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