從真實視角看瑞幸咖啡的崩盤

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本文選自《華爾街日報》4月4&5日刊文章。4月2日，瑞幸咖啡自曝22億驚天營銷造假數據，當日早盤，8次觸發熔斷機制。該公司股價在1月份還創下了新高，但自那以來，股價已下跌近90%。這家號稱要成為下一個星巴克的中國最大的咖啡連鎖店，僅僅用兩年時間，就擁有4500多家門店，它以手機下單和買完即走的特點，打破了中國傳統咖啡店的營銷模式，並且通過為每一杯咖啡提供補貼的方式，迅速佔領市場，其擴張速度之快，可以說是一個奇蹟。中國發展到現階段，確實需要出現像星巴克這樣的國產咖啡店品牌，但是僅靠燒錢、沒有盈利的商業模式畢竟不能長久，誰會成為中國的星巴克呢？

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選文精講

TheUnfilteredView of A Chinese Coffee Chain

從真實視角看中國咖啡連鎖店

unfiltered: 未經過濾的，這裡是指「原始的、真實的」，暗諷瑞幸咖啡數據造假

Theimplosionof a Starbucks wannabe shows how tough it can be to evaluate faraway companies

一家想要成為星巴克的咖啡店在內部炸開了，這表明評估一家千裡之外的公司有多麼困難

Luck isrunning outfor Starbucks』 challenger in China. The implosion ofLuckin Coffeeshould offer investors a few lessons.

implosion: 內部爆裂、內爆；explosion: 向外爆炸、爆炸

wannabe: 自封的、想要成為的

run out: 用完、耗盡

星巴克在中國的挑戰者的運氣已經用完了，瑞幸咖啡的內部崩潰應該給投資者提供一些教訓。

The Chinese coffee chain— which claimed to be the largest in China with more than 4,500 stores, ahead of Starbucks—said Thursday that several employees, including its chief operating officer,fabricatedmuch of its reported sales in 2019. Luckin said the fake transactions amounted to 2.2 billion yuan ($310 million) from the second to fourth quarters of last year—or in other words, for every quarter it has reported or issued guidance on since listing on Nasdaq last May. It hasn’t yet reported fourth-quarter numbers but had a forecast. That means nearly half of the reported or forecast sales for those nine months werefictitious.

fabricate: 編造

fictitious: 虛假的、編造的

這家自稱是中國最大的咖啡連鎖店，擁有4500多家門店，超過星巴克，該公司周四表示，包括營運長在內的幾名員工偽造了2019年的大部分銷售報告。瑞幸表示，從去年第二季度到第四季度，製造的虛假交易總額達到了22億元人民幣(3.1億美元)，換句話說，自去年5月其在納斯達克上市以來，該公司每季度都報告或發布的業績指引都是虛假的。該公司尚未公布第四季度的數據，但已做出了預測，這意味著這9個月公布或預測的銷售額中有近一半是虛構的。

The stock hit new highs as recently as January, but has since fallen nearly 90%. It isnoteworthythat the collapse came less than a year after Luckin’smuch-hyped$645 million initial public offering. The company was portrayed as a technology startup that delivers coffee to your desk with just a few touches of your smartphone. Thetrite「if everyone in China buys coffee」 argument also seemed to make investors less skeptical about itsastronomicalgrowth rate.

noteworthy: 值得注意的

much-hyped: 高調的、被大肆炒作的

trite: 老套的、老生常談的

astronomical: 天文數字的、巨大的，有相同意思的詞有：exponential/ explosive/ ；astronomy: 天文學

該公司股價在1月份還創下了新高，但自那以來已經下跌了近90%。值得注意的是，在瑞幸被大肆宣傳的6.45億美元首次公開發行不到一年後，其股價就暴跌了。這家公司曾被描述為這樣的一家科技初創公司——只需用智慧型手機上輕輕一點，就能把咖啡送到你的辦公桌上。「如果每個中國人都買咖啡」這一慣用論點似乎也讓投資者對其天文數字般的增長速度不再那麼懷疑。

But there were plenty of warnings. The business model—subsidizingevery cup of coffee to boost growth—never seemed sustainable: Customers will likelyditchthe company as soon as it tries to raise prices. The current economic downturn triggered by the coronavirus pandemic may have made its cash burnuntenable.

subsidize: 資助、補助。該詞在外刊中經常出現，[華爾街日報例句]：Tighter financing is hitting companies that relied on burning through cash tosubsidizeservices and grab market share. 融資緊縮正在打擊那些依靠燒錢補貼服務，來搶佔市場份額的公司。

ditch: 原意指「挖溝、開渠」，這裡指「拋棄、丟棄」

untenable: 難以維持的

但也有很多警告。這種對每杯咖啡都進行補貼，以促進增長的商業模式似乎永遠都不可能持續下去：只要公司試圖提高價格，顧客就可能拋棄它。目前由新冠病毒大流行引發的經濟衰退可能使其資金燒得難以維持。

Moreover, ananonymousreport publicized by U.S.short sellerMuddy Waters earlier this year raised suspicions about the company’s accounting. Luckin said at the time that the report was false, misleading and irrelevant. But in fact it seems very relevant.

anonymous: 匿名的

short seller: 做空者

One interesting allegation in the report, beyond the fabrication of revenue, is that Luckinmanipulatedorder numbers in its app to give anembellishedimage of its business. More sophisticated investors relied on third-party vendors to collect data beyond companies』 financial statements. But if this accusation iswell-founded, that means they need to pay even closer attention to the question of what data can reasonably be trusted.

manipulate: 操縱、操控

embellish: 粉飾、修飾

well-founded: 有依據的、理由充分的

報告中除了捏造收入外，還有一項有趣的指控，即瑞幸在其應用程式中操縱訂單號碼，以美化其業務數據。更老練的投資者依賴第三方供應商收集公司財務報表以外的數據。但是，如果這種指控是有根據的，那就意味著他們需要更密切地關注什麼樣的數據可以被合理地信任這個問題。

Although Luckin said some employees were responsible, investors seem to think the blame could lie further up. Hong Kong-listed CAR Inc., which was founded by Luckin’s chairman and largest shareholder, Charles Zhengyao Lu, fell 54% Friday and its trading was halted. The corporate governance of the car-rental company has been questionable and its stock has lost nearly 80% of its value since its 2015 IPO.

儘管瑞幸表示，一些員工應該對此負責，但投資者們似乎認為，一些更高級別的人應對此負責。瑞幸集團董事長、最大股東陸正耀創建的香港上市的神州租車有限公司(CAR Inc.)上周五下跌54%，並被停牌。這家汽車租賃公司的管理一直存在問題，自2015年首次公開募股以來，其股價已下跌近80%。

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