來源：人大重陽
編者按：在《環球時報英文版》1月5日刊發的第66篇「變局」專欄中，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長王文認為歐美各國已跌入了「赫爾德陷阱」。他表示，個人過多的權利主張，組織過散的權限歸屬，社會過雜的權衡考量，政府過弱的權力運行，使得歐美國家抗疫總是在原地打轉，像是一輛負重過多的老爺車。下文為專欄的中英文版。
本文英文版在Global Times 的版面截圖
2020年最後一周，北京繼2月、5月後第三次發現了本土新冠病例，病例發現地就在我家2公裡外。我所在街道一下子緊張起來：3萬人，兩天內，全部完成核酸檢測。所有接觸者被鎖定隔離。社區、大廈進入要求變得更嚴格。街上行人明顯減少。
10天後，北京市政府宣布，基本控制住了新一輪本土疫情。又一輪的病毒襲擊，再次在政府、社會、組織與個人的密切配合下被打退，詮釋了人類演進的又一個典型瞬間。
其實，人類的演進就像一輛負重前行的大車，必須不斷適應疾病、猛獸、天災的侵襲。只有個人、組織、政府與社會在同一個方向付出努力，進步才有可能。否則，將會面臨「超載」而止步不前的困境，甚至爆發更大災難。
面對同一種病毒，中國、越南、日本、韓國等東亞國家的應對明顯要好於歐美國家，最重要的原因就在於，東亞各國的政府、社會、組織、個人已達成了「生命重於自由」的價值共識，往一個方向推動「大車」的前行。
相反，歐美國家則是分裂的。個人過多的權利主張，組織過散的權限歸屬，社會過雜的權衡考量，政府過弱的權力運行，使得歐美國家抗疫總是在原地打轉，像是一輛負重過多的老爺車。
30多年前，英國學者戴維·赫爾德在《民主的模式》一書中就曾警示過「國家超載」的難題。這本被稱為「民主理論的必讀書」後來出了修訂本，增加了對中國式協商民主的研究與認識，但對歐美國家超載式的批判仍然不變。
這種批判或許可稱之為「赫爾德陷阱」。我對「赫爾德陷阱「的理解是，隨著生活水平提升，人們的期望過高，政黨組織的政策主張過於強化票倉群體的利益，政府權力無法覆蓋全民，社會不斷出現價值觀的分裂，導致經濟、社會事務賴以運行的制度失靈，國家陷入止步不前的停滯深淵。
這次疫情典型地證明了歐美各國已跌入了「赫爾德陷阱」。對於中國人而言，很難想像，疫情大規模爆發已一年，歐美國家竟還有那麼多民眾缺乏自律，反覆強調個人自由，不願意戴口罩，不相信醫學；也很難想像，在歐美國家還存在那麼多政黨、社會組織之間的無謂爭吵；更難以想像，一些政客還以意識形態之由，無端地把髒水往其他國家去潑。
截至2020年底，擁有世界最發達醫療設備與公共衛生治理體系的30多個歐美國家總計竟超70萬死於新冠，很可能在2021年春季將超過100萬。難怪已有人斷言，新冠疫情已淪為西方危機、民主危機。
跳出「赫爾德陷阱」的關鍵是，在危機時，必須依賴於能充分配置所有資源的「強大國家」。政府要有自上而下的執行，社會要有從裡到外的配合，民眾則要有發自內心的遵從。這是超載理論對於當下民主國家危機的真誠啟示。
換句話說，任何一個向前發展的國家，都應該講求秩序與自由、權利與責任、個人與集體之間的平衡。平衡得好，國家則能持續發展；否則，就會跌入「超載陷阱」。在大危機中，天平則必須有所傾斜。程序須讓位於效率，自由須讓位於生命，爭論須讓位於合作。
正如二戰時美國與英國出現了羅斯福、邱吉爾，應對這場新冠疫情，歐美國家的確需要大英雄。我不知道，拜登會不會是，但拯救生命應該是他的首要任務。
這又令我想起弗蘭西斯·福山在《政治秩序與政治衰敗》中的話，無論是新興國家，還是老牌民主國家，恐怕都需要面臨著一個重大任務，即提供國民所期待的實質性功能：「人身安全、共享的經濟增長和優質的基本公共服務，即實現個人機會所必需的教育、衛生和基礎設施。」
這些國民所期待的實質性功能的提供，不只是源於政府一方，也來源於社會。希望歐美國家的所有人能夠從中汲取這種變化的觀念。
Healthcare workers roll a patient into the emergency room at Maimonides Medical Center during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Brooklyn borough of New York, United States, Dec. 14, 2020. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua)
以下為英文版
Overloaded West faces crisis of democracy
By Wang Wen
In the last week of 2020, Beijing reported a new local case of COVID-19 infection for the third time after outbreaks in February and May. The case was found two kilometers away from my home. The community where I live suddenly became nervous. Over 300,000 people in the neighborhood all got nucleic acid tests within two days, and those who contacted with positive tests were all tracked and isolated. It has become more stringent to enter the community and buildings here. The number of people on the streets has decreased significantly too.
About 10 days later, the Beijing municipal government announced that the city had basically controlled the new round of the epidemic. The new wave was once again defeated under the close cooperation of the government, society, organizations and individuals. This reflects another poignant moment of human evolution.
Actually, the evolution of human beings can be compared to an overloaded cart moving forward. Humans must constantly adapt to the invasion of diseases, beasts and natural disasters. Only when individuals, organizations, governments and societies work together in the same direction can progress be possible. Otherwise, we all face the predicament of being "overloaded" and stagnating - as well as greater catastrophes.
East Asian nations such as China, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea have dealt with COVID-19 better than states in Europe and the US. Governments, societies, organizations and individuals in East Asian countries have reached a value consensus: "life is more important than freedom." We are now pushing forward the "cart" in unified direction.
By the contrast, European and American societies are divided at present. Too many personal and inflamed ideological claims are now weakening efforts to contain the virus. This bureaucratic and social crisis has been mounting for years, making Europe and the US look like an overloaded old car.
British scholar David Held warned about the problem of the "overloaded state" in his 1987 book Models of Democracy. This book, known as a must read about democratic theory, was later revised to increase research and understanding of deliberative democracy with Chinese characteristics. But the criticism of the overloading of European countries and the US remains unchanged.
This criticism can be called the "Held Trap." My understanding of the term is that with the improvement of living standards, people's expectations have become too high. But the policies of political parties have concentrated too much on the so-called interests of their voters.
Government's power cannot cover all their people. As such, social values continue to split, leading to the failure of the system on which economic and social affairs depend. Many Western countries are falling in a stagnant abyss.
The pandemic is proof that European countries and the US have been stuck in the "Held Trap." For Chinese people, it is unthinkable that so many people in Europe and the US lack self-discipline and repeatedly emphasize their so-called individual freedoms. It is also inconceivable to see so many quarrels between politicians and social organizations in Europe and the US - let alone many politicians stigmatize other countries due to ideological reasons.
By the end of 2020, over 700,000 people had died due to COVID-19 in Europe and the US where the most advanced healthcare systems in the world reside. The death toll is likely to surpass 1 million by the spring of 2021. It is no wonder that some people have asserted that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a crisis of the West and democracy.
To get rid of the "Held trap," the powerful role of government in allocating resources is now clearly indispensable. Governments should make and implement orders. People need to fully cooperate with them as responsible citizens. This is the enlightenment of "overload theory" for the current crisis of democratic countries.
In other words, any country that is moving forward should find a balance between order and freedom, between power and responsibility, and between individual and collective interests. A good balance can sustain a country's development. In a major crisis, the libra zodiac symbol of balanced weights needs to tilt toward one side.A properly chosen program should give way to effectiveness. Also, freedom should give way to lives. And arguments should give way to cooperation.
This reminds me of American political scientist Francis Fukuyama's words in his book Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Present Day. He said that both emerging countries and established democracies need to face a major task: to provide the substance of what people want from government.
These include "personal security, shared economic growth and the basic public services [especially education, health care and infrastructure] that are needed to achieve individual opportunity."
Government and society should provide the substance of what people want, as mentioned above. There is hope that the people Europe and US can perceive this ever-evolving concept.
（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.）