Ageing in Japan
Ready, cane, fire
Japan's army is greying. It may have to draft more robots
中文導讀
自1994年以來，日本年輕人群的比例一路下跌，嚴重影響到日本的徵兵計劃。於2014年開始，日本自衛隊每年均為完整招募目標。
為了解決軍隊老齡化問題，無人機和機器人等高新科技成了日本自衛隊的希望，但事實上他們也並非萬能藥。
退休中將Nagaiwa Toshimichi半開玩笑地說:「雖然我已經71歲，但我早就做好了戰鬥的準備。」
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BRIGHT YOUNG faces gaze out from a recruitment poster on the thick grey walls of the Defence Ministry in central Tokyo. But in greying Japan, finding enough youngsters to fill the ranks has become, by the ministry’s own admission, 「an imminent challenge」. The number of Japanese between 18 and 26 years old, long the prime recruiting pool, peaked at 17m in 1994. It has since fallen to 11m. By 2050 it will sink below 8m. 「Young blood is what all militaries need, and it’s exactly what we’re lacking,」 says Yamaguchi Noboru, a retired lieutenant-general in the Self-Defence Forces (SDF), as the country calls its army, in deference to its pacifist constitution.
在東京市中心，國防部厚厚的灰色牆壁上張貼著招募海報，一張張年輕而明亮的面孔向外凝視著。但在逐漸老齡化的日本，連日本政府也承認，要找到足夠的年輕人來填補軍隊職位空缺已經成為一個迫在眉睫的挑戰。18歲至26歲的日本年輕人一直以來都是徵召的黃金人選，但這一年齡段的人群在1994年就達到了頂峰，為1700萬人，隨後便一直下降到現在的1100萬人。到了2050年，該人群數量將下降至800萬人。「所有軍隊都需要新鮮血液，但這正是我們所缺少的，」現已退休的自衛隊中將Yamaguchi Noboru說道。根據和平憲法，日本稱其軍隊為「自衛隊」。
gaze 凝視
the ranks 軍隊普通士兵
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The SDF has missed its recruiting targets every year since 2014, reaching just 72% of its goal in 2018. It fields only 227,000 of the 247,000 troops it budgets for, a shortfall of 8%. Among the lowest ranks, the gap is over 25%. Low pay, harsh conditions and the limited prestige of soldiering in a peacenik nation with little unemployment always made recruiting hard, but demography compounds the difficulties. The inverted population pyramid ought to worry Japan as much as North Korean missiles, argues Robert Eldridge, an American former military official and the author of a book in Japanese on demography and the armed forces: 「Demographic change is not just an economic issue, it’s a national-defence issue.」
自2014年以來，自衛隊每年均未完成徵召目標，2018年的徵兆完成率僅為72%。在軍隊預算中，日本兵力為24.7萬人，但實際僅為22.7萬人，軍隊人數缺口為8%。在低軍銜中，缺口更是高於25%。工資低、條件惡劣加上士兵在一個和平的國家服役本身能獲得的的威望就有限，同時日本還是一個低失業率的國家，往往令新兵招募變得格外困難，然而人口結構問題更是令問題雪上加霜。倒置的人口金字塔應該像朝鮮的飛彈問題一樣讓日本擔憂，美國前軍事官員Robert Eldridge認為，他還是一本關於人口和軍隊的日本書的作者。「人口變化不僅僅是一個經濟問題，它是一個國防問題。」
field 部署
shortfall 缺口；差額
peacenik 和平主義；反戰的
compound 惡化；加重
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The army is using many of the same strategies as private companies to cope with an ageing workforce. 「Just like the rest of Japan, the SDF is trying to see what AI and robotics can do for them,」 says Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank. The government has announced plans to acquire and develop new unmanned aircraft and submarines. While these will be for surveillance, 「the next step is strike capability」, says Nagashima Akihisa, a government MP and former deputy defence minister.
日本軍隊正在採用與私人企業相同的策略來應對勞動力老齡化問題。美國智庫外交關係委員會的希拉史密斯表示:「就像日本其它領域一樣，自衛隊也在試著看看人工智慧和機器人能為他們做些什麼。」政府近期宣布了收購和開發新型無人機和潛艇的計劃。政府議員、前國防部副部長長島昭久表示，雖然這些無人機和潛艇將用於監視，但「下一步就是打擊能力」。
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But persuading politicians to fund the development and deployment of offensive weapons is hard in a country whose constitution states, 「The Japanese people forever renounce war.」 Nor is technology a panacea for personnel shortfalls, notes Koda Yoji, a retired vice-admiral. Drones and robots require operators and skilled engineers—the sort of people 「the SDF already has trouble attracting. A cyberdefence unit set up in 2014 has only 220 members.
但是，在一個憲法規定「日本人民永遠放棄戰爭」的國家，說服政客資助攻擊性武器的開發和部署是困難的。退休海軍中將Koda Yoji指出，技術也不是解決人員短缺的靈丹妙藥。無人機和機器人需要操作員和技術熟練的工程師，而這類人才「自衛隊已經難以吸引」。2014年成立的網絡防禦部隊現在也只有220名成員。
panacea 萬能藥；靈丹妙藥
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An alternative is to expand the pool of potential personnel. Female troops used to be confined to non-combat roles such as nursing and administration, but in recent years the high command has allowed them to fly fighter jets and drive tanks, among other things; soon they will be allowed to sail on submarines. At the defence ministry, officers speak of 「work-life balance」 and stress family-friendly perks such as an on-site day-care centre. Yet progress has been slow: women made up just 7% of Japan’s armed forces in 2018, compared with an average of 11% among NATO countries. And the government’s goals are modest: to increase the share to 9% by 2030. The National Defence Academy caps the number of women it admits at 15%. Sexist attitudes about roles in the army still prevail, says Sato Fumika of Hitotsubashi University. In the SDF’s recruiting pamphlets, the pages that focus on women are printed on pink backgrounds.
另一個替代方案就是擴大潛在的人才儲備。女性部隊過去被限制在擔任護理和管理等非戰鬥角色，但近年來，最高司令部批准了她們駕駛戰鬥機和坦克;很快潛艇上就會出現女性角色。在國防部，官員們談到了「工作與生活的平衡」，並強調了有利於家庭的津貼，如現場日託中心。但這一進展緩慢:2018年，日本軍隊中女性只佔7%，而北約國家的平均比例為11%。政府的目標是適度的:到2030年將這一比例提高到9%。國防學院招收的女性人數上限為15%。一橋大學的Sato Fumika說，關於軍隊角色的性別歧視態度仍然盛行。在自衛隊的招募手冊中，女性的頁面都印在粉紅色的背景上。
perk 津貼；優待
modest 適度的；較小的
prevail 盛行
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Another way to keep up the numbers is simply to tolerate older soldiers. In 2018 the SDF raised the maximum age for new recruits from 26 to 32, the first increase since 1990. This year the retirement age for senior officers will start rising gradually. Older soldiers can focus on maintenance, logistics and training, thus freeing younger troops to concentrate on more muscular missions. Experienced soldiers may even bring advantages in 「new domains and new frontiers」 of warfare, where physical prowess matters less, says Colonel Kagoshima Hiroshi, who works in recruitment. Those past retirement age are encouraged to continue working for reduced pay. As Nagaiwa Toshimichi, a retired lieutenant-general, laughs, 「I’m 71 years old, but I’m ready to fight.」 He is only half-joking.
另一種維持軍隊人數的方法就是延長士兵退役年齡。2018年，日本自衛隊將徵兵年齡上限從26歲提高到32歲，這是自1990年以來的首次提高。今年，高級軍官的退役年齡將開始逐步提高。年長的士兵可以把精力集中在維護、後勤和訓練上，這樣就可以解放年輕的士兵，把精力集中在更加高強度的任務上。從事徵兵工作的Kagoshima Hiroshi上校表示，經驗豐富的士兵甚至可能在戰爭的「新領域和新前沿」帶來優勢，在這些領域中，體能的重要性就不那麼大了。那些過了退役年齡的人被鼓勵繼續工作，但工資會減少。退休中將Nagaiwa Toshimichi半開玩笑地說:「雖然我已經71歲了，但我已經做好了戰鬥的準備。」
muscular 力量型的
prowess 技能；勇猛