經合組織報告:中國將是2020年G20唯一實現正增長的國家

當地時間9月16日，經合組織發布了《經濟展望中期報告》，將全球2020年GDP變動預期從下滑6%上調至下滑4.5%，2021年經濟增長預期同步上調至5%。此外，報告指出，按照目前的經濟和疫情態勢，中國將是2020年二十國集團中唯一實現正增長的國家。

A traveller wearing a face mask walks at the Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in London, Britain, July 26, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]

The huge shock to many of the world's biggest economies from the coronavirus pandemic may not be quite as bad as economists feared just a few months ago.

新冠肺炎疫情對世界上許多大型經濟體的巨大衝擊，可能沒有幾個月前經濟學家擔心的那麼嚴重。

In a report published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development upgraded its forecast for global economic output this year, noting that while declines were still "unprecedented in recent history," the outlook has improved slightly since June.

在周三（9月16日）發布的一份報告中，經濟合作與發展組織（OECD）上調了對今年全球經濟產出的預測，並指出，儘管降幅仍是「近年來前所未有的」，但前景自6月以來略有改善。

The Paris-based agency said it now expects the world economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 before expanding by 5% in 2021. Previously, the OECD said it thought the global economy would contract by 6% this year and grow 5.2% next year.

總部位於巴黎的經合組織說，預計2020年全球經濟將下滑4.5%，2021年將增長5%。此前，經合組織認為全球經濟今年將下滑6%，明年將增長5.2%。

But the agency, which represents the world's biggest economies, warned that headline figures mask major discrepancies. While it significantly boosted its 2020 forecasts for the United States and China, and slightly raised the outlook for Europe, the OECD lowered its expectations for developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

但代表全球最大經濟體的經合組織警告稱，整體數據掩蓋了重大差異。儘管經合組織大幅提高了對美國和中國2020年的預測，並略微提高了對歐洲的展望，但降低了對墨西哥、阿根廷、印度、南非、印度尼西亞和沙烏地阿拉伯等發展中國家的預期。

OECD economists said the downgrades reflected "the prolonged spread of the virus, high levels of poverty and informality, and stricter confinement measures for an extended period."

經合組織的經濟學家表示，預期的下調反映了「病毒的長期傳播、高度貧困和非正規性，以及更為嚴格的限制措施實行期延長」。

Customers wait in line to enter a Louis Vuitton store in a mall in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Sept 5. [Photo/Agencies]

China is the only G20 country for which output is projected to rise in 2020, with its economy growing 1.8%, compared to a 3.8% contraction in the United States and a 7.9% decline among the 19 countries that use the euro. Beijing reported Tuesday that retail sales were higher in August than they had been the previous year — the first time sales have increased in 2020.

在二十國集團中，經合組織預計只有中國的2020年經濟產出將增長，預期經濟增長率為1.8%，相比之下，美國經濟預期將下滑3.8%，19個歐元區國家將下滑7.9%。根據中國政府周二（9月15日）發布的報告，中國8月份零售業銷售額高於去年同期，這是2020年零售額首次出現增長。

The OECD noted the earlier timing of the country's outbreak and its ability to swiftly bring it under control, as well as policies that paved the way for a rapid bounce back in activity, pointing to strong infrastructure investment in particular.

經合組織指出，中國疫情暴發時間較早，但有能力迅速控制住，並出臺了相關政策為經濟活動迅速恢復鋪平道路，尤其是強有力的基礎設施投資。

Meanwhile, South Africa's economy could shrink by 11.5% this year, according to the OECD. Mexico and India's economies are both on track for a 10.2% contraction. That's worse than the forecasts for developed economies with the exception of Italy, which is due to shrink 10.5% after it was hit hard by the virus.

與此同時，根據經合組織的數據，南非經濟今年或將下滑11.5%。墨西哥和印度的經濟預計將下滑10.2%。這比除義大利以外的其他發達經濟體的預期更糟糕，義大利受到疫情重創，預期經濟將下滑10.5%。

圖片來源：經合組織

經濟不確定性仍然很高

The OECD cautioned that its outlook is far from set, and much depends on the trajectory of Covid-19 infections and ongoing support from policymakers. It added that the global recovery "lost some momentum over the summer months" after an initial burst of activity.

經合組織警告說，經濟前景還遠未確定，在很大程度上取決於新冠疫情的進展和政策制定者的持續支持。該組織補充說，在最初的經濟重啟措施後，全球經濟復甦的步伐「在夏季出現放緩的跡象」。

"A recovery is now under way following the easing of strict confinement measures and the reopening of businesses, but uncertainty remains high and confidence is still fragile," the agency said in its report.

經合組織在報告中表示：「在嚴格的限制措施放鬆、企業重新開業後，經濟正在復甦，但不確定性仍然很高，人們的信心仍然很脆弱。」

Some of its estimates are also contingent on policy assumptions that may not materialize.

經合組織的一些預測所基於的政策假設也可能無法實現。

contingent [k n t nd nt]：adj.以事實為依據的；依情況而變的

The OECD assumes, for example, that the United Kingdom will reach a "basic" free trade agreement for goods with the European Union. But talks could be crushed by a controversial bill introduced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government.

例如，經合組織假設，英國將與歐盟達成一項「基本」的貨物自由貿易協定。但英國政府提出的一項有爭議的法案可能會使談判破裂。

The agency expects the UK economy to shrink by 10.1% this year, a slight improvement over its last estimate.

經合組織預計今年英國經濟將下滑10.1%，比之前的預計略有改善。

The OECD is also counting on US lawmakers to approve another stimulus package worth up to $1.5 trillion this fall, though negotiations have reached an impasse. Reaching an agreement may be more difficult as the November election approaches.

經合組織還寄希望於美國在今年秋天批准另一項高達1.5萬億美元（約合人民幣10萬億元）的經濟刺激計劃，但是談判已陷入僵局。隨著11月美國總統大選的臨近，達成協議可能會更加困難。

The group's predictions for the global recovery in 2021 are slightly lower than they were in June. OECD economists made clear they see a long road ahead.

經合組織對2021年全球經濟復甦的預測比6月份時略低。該組織的經濟學家們明確表示，他們認為經濟復甦路漫漫。

"In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic," the report said.

報告稱：「大多數經濟體2021年底的經濟產出水平預計仍將低於2019年底，且大幅低於疫情暴發前的預期，這凸顯出疫情帶來的長期成本風險。」