2019年,在不確定性、動蕩、甚至低迷中結束,全球經濟增速降至2.3%,為10年來最低水平。貿易、地緣政治衝突、經濟形勢下行,持續衝擊著全球時尚行業的發展。
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)曾預判,2019 年世界經濟增長將創下自 2008 年國際金融危機以來的最低增速。在貿易保護主義抬頭、地緣政治衝突持續波動升級等緊張局勢的影響下,全球商業信心下降、投資與相關經濟活動放緩。
2019 年,世界在不確定性、動蕩、甚至低迷中結束,聯合國在今年 1 月發布的《世界經濟形勢與展望 2020》報告顯示,「全球經濟增速在 2019 年降至 2.3%,為 10 年來的最低水平。」經濟形勢的下行也給全球時尚行業發展帶來衝擊,貿易壁壘的增加不斷挑戰時尚企業全球供應鏈的構建,無論是投資者還是消費者,都變得更加謹慎。2019 年的全球時尚產業表現憂喜參半,8 月,擁有近百年歷史的美國奢侈品百貨Barneys New York 宣布提交破產申請,另據《商業內幕》雜誌數據顯示,2019 年美國關店總數達 9300 家。除了實體零售一瀉千裡,線上平臺也不全然樂觀,英國奢侈品電商平臺 Farfetch 股價在 2019 年累計下跌 35%。
在部分零售商形勢蕭條的陰影之下,卻也不乏讓市場興奮的表現。據時尚商業快訊監測,「2019 年共有約 45 家上市奢侈時尚零售集團市值實現增長。」其中,2019 年底與美國奢侈珠寶品牌 Tifany 達成 162 億美元現金收購交易的 LVMH 集團股價累計上漲 68%,以 2146 億歐元的市值創下新高,繼續領跑行業。H&M 股價累計上漲 46% 成為快時尚行業贏家;美妝巨頭雅詩蘭黛集團 2019 財年收入達 148.66 億美元,成為該領域表現最好的企業;國內運動服飾品牌由李寧和安踏領跑,股價分別累計上漲 175% 和100%,而被分析師稱為「下一個 Nike」的 Skechers 和lululemon 則分別是美國和加拿大勢頭最強勁的運動服飾品牌。
據麥肯錫與 BoF(Business of Fashion)聯合發布的《2020 全球時尚業態報告》預測,2020 年全球時尚行業將繼續保持穩步增長,增速在 3.0%-4.0% 左右。相比2019 年,亞太新興國家、北美地區及歐洲發達國家的增速微微收窄,但亞太地區仍將是推動全球時尚行業增長的主要力量。
In 2019, ending in uncertainty, turbulence, and even downturn, the global economic growth rate dropped to 2.3%, the lowest level in 10 years. Trade, geopolitical conflicts, and economic downturn continue to impact the development of the global fashion industry.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the world economic growth in 2019 will hit the lowest growth rate since the 2008 international financial crisis. Under the influence of tensions such as rising trade protectionism and continued volatility and escalation of geopolitical conflicts, global business confidence has declined, and investment and related economic activities have slowed down.
In 2019, the world ended amidst uncertainty, turbulence, and even downturn. The report "World Economic Situation and Outlook 2020" released by the United Nations in January this year showed that "the growth rate of the global economy dropped to 2.3% in 2019, a 10-year period. The lowest level of the economy.」 The downturn in the economic situation has also impacted the development of the global fashion industry. The increase in trade barriers continues to challenge the construction of global supply chains for fashion companies. Both investors and consumers have become more cautious. The performance of the global fashion industry in 2019 was mixed. In August, Barneys New York, an American luxury department store with a history of nearly 100 years, announced that it had filed for bankruptcy. According to data from Business Insider magazine, the total number of US stores closed in 2019 reached 9,300. . In addition to physical retail sales, online platforms are not entirely optimistic. The share price of British luxury e-commerce platform Farfetch has fallen 35% in 2019.
Under the shadow of the depression of some retailers, there is no lack of excitement in the market. According to Fashion Business News, 「in 2019, there were about 45 listed luxury fashion retail groups that achieved market value growth.」 Among them, LVMH Group, which reached a $16.2 billion cash acquisition transaction with American luxury jewelry brand Tifany at the end of 2019, rose 68% in total. The market value of 214.6 billion euros hit a new high and continues to lead the industry. H&M's stock price has risen 46% and become a winner in the fast fashion industry; beauty giant Estee Lauder Group's revenue in fiscal year 2019 reached 14.866 billion U.S. dollars, becoming the best performing company in this field; domestic sportswear brands led by Li Ning and Anta, their stock prices have risen by 175. % And 100%, and Skechers and lululemon, which analysts call the "next Nike", are the strongest sportswear brands in the United States and Canada, respectively.
According to the "2020 Global Fashion Business Report" jointly released by McKinsey and BoF (Business of Fashion), the global fashion industry will continue to maintain steady growth in 2020, with a growth rate of around 3.0%-4.0%. Compared with 2019, the growth rate of emerging Asia-Pacific countries, North America and developed European countries has slightly narrowed, but the Asia-Pacific region will still be the main force driving the growth of the global fashion industry.