本文選自《經濟學人》20200815期
背景介紹：
空中巴士A380（Airbus A380）是歐洲航空航天巨頭空中巴士公司製造的全球最大的寬體客機。2019年2月14日，空中巴士公司與阿聯航空公司達成削減A380訂單協議後宣布，將於2021年停止交付A380客機。全球最大客機A380的未來將何去何從？
What’s an A380 worth?
The world’s biggest passenger aeroplane is going cheap
How much is an airliner worth if it is languishing on the tarmac, and may never fly passengers again? In the age of covid-19 that is the fate of many double-decker A380 superjumbos built by Airbus, Europe’s aerospace giant.
如果一家客機停在停機坪上日漸鏽蝕，並且可能再也不會載客飛行，那麼它價值幾何呢？在新冠肺炎大流行的時代，歐洲航空航天巨頭空客製造的許多雙層超大型客機A380的命運便是如此。Once seen by airlines as the future of commercial aviation, many are being retired early as covid-19 has cast a pall on the future of globe-trotting. Those still in service could be yours for a few million dollars.
空客曾一度將其視為商業航空的未來，但由於新冠肺炎疫情給環球旅行的未來蒙上了一層陰影，許多A380都已提早退役。而那些仍在服役的A380可能也只值幾百萬美元了。The A380 was in trouble before the pandemic. Delays meant that by the time it at last flew it had to compete with smaller, more efficient jets. Only 14 airlines ever ordered the 500-plus seater, with Emirates, based in Dubai, operating nearly half the 242 planes delivered. After Emirates cancelled orders for 39 in February 2019, Airbus announced it was winding down production of the plane.
實際上，在疫情爆發前，A380就已經陷入了窘境。航班延誤意味著，當輪到A380起飛時，它必須與身形更小、更高效的飛機相競爭。迄今為止，僅有14家航空公司訂購了這款擁有500多個座位的飛機，空客在全球範圍內共交付了242架A380，其中近一半由總部位於杜拜的阿聯航空公司運營。2019年2月，在阿聯航空取消了39架A380的訂單後，空客便宣布了A380的停產計劃。All aircraft have lost value as a result of covid-19. But the fall has been unusually steep for A380s. The model’s main attraction for airlines was to relieve congested runways at global hub airports. Now these are empty. Fewer than one in ten working A380s are plying the skies, according to Flightradar24, which tracks air traffic. Smaller craft are faring somewhat better.
受新冠肺炎疫情影響，所有的飛機都在跌價。但A380的跌幅卻異常之大。A380對於航空公司的主要吸引力在於緩解全球樞紐機場擁擠的跑道。但如今，各大機場的跑道都是空的。據追蹤空中交通的Flightradar24的數據顯示，僅剩不到10%的A380仍在繼續飛行。而小型飛機的情況相對要好一些。The aviation industry may not recover until 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association, a trade group. That is a long time to maintain aeroplanes, so some airlines have thrown in the towel.
據貿易組織國際航空運輸協會稱，航空業可能要到2024年才能復甦。面對如此長時間的飛機維護期，一些航空公司已經認輸了。Air France has announced its nine A380s will never fly again, and booked a €500m ($588m) write-down in the value of its fleet. Germany’s Lufthansa has cut its 14-strong squadron by six. Singapore Airlines, the second-biggest operator with 19 planes, plans an ominous-sounding 「review」.
法航宣布其9架A380將不再起飛，並對其機隊價值進行了5億歐元（約合5.88億美元）的減記。德國漢莎航空將其14人的飛行中隊削減了6人。擁有19架A380的第二大航空公司新加坡航空計劃進行一次聽來不祥的「評估」。Valuations of A380s have tumbled accordingly. The oldest models have been flying for 12 years or so. At that age, aircraft have typically lost half their value. Given each costs $250m-300m to buy when kitted out, airline accountants might have hoped for $125m. But even before covid-19 appraisers suggested between $75m and $100m.
A380的估值也因此大幅下跌。最老的A380已經服役近12年。這一役期的飛機通常會貶值一半。考慮到每架A380裝備齊全的成本大概為2.5億-3億美元，航空公司的會計們可能希望其估值能達1.25億美元。但即便在疫情爆發前，服役12年的A380的估值也僅為7500萬-1億美元。Now some A380s are fetching half what they used to be worth, says Usman Ahmed of Aircore Aviation, a consultancy. The slump is borne out by the accounts of investment funds that own planes and lease them to airlines. A fund called Doric Nimrod Air One recently cut the accounting value of its sole asset, an A380 leased to Emirates, by 51% in dollar terms.
諮詢公司 Aircore Aviation 的烏斯曼·艾哈邁德表示，如今A380的估值更是只有過去的一半。從擁有A380並將其出租給航空公司的投資基金的帳面也能看出A380估值的暴跌。Doric Nimrod Air One 基金最近將其唯一資產（一架出租給阿聯航空的A380）的帳面價值下調了51%。The share prices of listed A380-owning funds suggests the residual values of the planes once the leases expire are between $10m and $15m, says Matthew Hose of Jefferies, an investment bank. Given regular maintenance overhauls of each of the A380’s four engines can cost $6m, existing motors in decent nick are, in principle, worth at least that much.
投資銀行傑富瑞的馬修·霍斯表示，從擁有A380的上市基金的股價來看，一旦租約到期，其A380的剩餘價值僅為1000萬美元-1500萬美元。考慮到對A380的4個引擎進行定期檢修的費用可能高達600萬美元，原則上來說，現有引擎至少也值這麼多錢。Add the landing gear, also in principle reusable, and that would make the airframe itself worthless. It also signals that even the spares—which in modern planemaking are always aircraft-specific and useless for other models—may not have much value.
再加上起落架原則上也是可以重複使用的，那麼機身本身可謂是一文不值了。這也意味著，A380的備件（在現代飛機製造中，備件通常是專機專用的，某型號飛機的備件是無法用在其他型號飛機上的）也將變得一文不值。Struggling operators sometimes convert unwanted passenger jets into cargo planes. But Airbus never launched a freight version of the A380, so the conversion would be tricky. No scheduled carrier that flies the aircraft already is keen on more, even at knock-down prices. The first A380 to fly, which came into service in 2007, has already been sent to the scrapheap. More are headed that way.
苦苦掙扎的航空公司有時會將多餘的客機改裝成貨機。但空客從未推出過貨運版A380，因此改裝難度可能會很大。如今沒有一家運營定期航班的航空公司願意購買更多的A380了，即使價格一降再降。於2007年投入飛行的全球首架A380如今已被報廢處理，而更多的A380正在走向報廢的路上。重難點詞彙：
languish [ˈlæŋɡwɪʃ] vi. 憔悴；凋萎；失去活力tarmac [ˈtɑːrmæk] n. 柏油路；停機坪congest [kən'dʒɛst] v. 充血；充塞；擁擠ominous [ˈɑːmɪnəs] adj. 預兆的；不吉利的overhaul [ˈoʊvərˌhɔːl] v. 徹底檢修；趕上 n. 解體檢修scrapheap [ˈskræphiːp] n. 廢物堆，廢料堆往期推薦：
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