比爾蓋茨談《未來之路》 25 年後:做出的正確和錯誤的預測

IT之家12月1日消息 比爾蓋茨今天發文表示，二十五年前，我出版了我的第一本書《未來之路》。當時，人們想知道數位技術的發展方向，以及它將如何影響我們的生活。而我則想分享我的想法——還有我的熱忱。我還饒有興趣地對計算機領域（尤其是網際網路）未來幾十年的突破做了一些預測。IT之家獲悉，比爾蓋茨稱，在第一本書裡做出了一些正確和錯誤的預測。

比爾蓋茨表示，明年二月，我將發行另一本書，主題是氣候變化。在書上架之前，我覺得回顧一下《未來之路》並看看我預測的結果如何會很有意思。

下面是文章內容：

我在第一本書裡做出的正確和錯誤的預測

Twenty-five years ago, I published my first book, The Road Ahead. At the time, people were wondering where digital technology was headed and how it would affect our lives, and I wanted to share my thoughts—and my enthusiasm. I also had fun making some predictions about breakthroughs in computing, and especially the Internet, that were coming in the next couple of decades.

二十五年前，我出版了我的第一本書《未來之路》。當時，人們想知道數位技術的發展方向，以及它將如何影響我們的生活。而我則想分享我的想法——還有我的熱忱。我還饒有興趣地對計算機領域（尤其是網際網路）未來幾十年的突破做了一些預測。

Next February, I』ll release another book, this one about climate change. Before it hits the shelves, I thought it would be fun to look back at The Road Ahead and see how things turned out.

明年二月，我將發行另一本書，主題是氣候變化。在書上架之前，我覺得回顧一下《未來之路》並看看我預測的結果如何會很有意思。

As I wrote in The Road Ahead, we tend to overestimate the changes that will happen in the short term and underestimate the ones that will happen over the long term. That is certainly my experience with the book itself. I was too optimistic about some things, but other things happened even faster or more dramatically than I imagined.

正如我在《未來之路》中所寫，我們傾向於高估短期內將要發生的變化，而低估長期內將要發生的變化。這無疑是我從這本書中得到的經驗。我對一些事情過於樂觀，而另一些事情又比我想像中發生得更快或更激烈。

These days, it’s easy to forget just how much the Internet has transformed society. When The Road Ahead came out, people were still navigating with paper maps. They listened to music on CDs. Photos were developed in labs. If you needed a gift idea, you asked a friend (in person or over the phone). Today you can do every one of these things much more easily—and in most cases at a much lower cost too—using digital tools.

如今，人們很容易忘記網際網路給我們的社會帶來了多大的改變。當《未來之路》問世時，人們還在使用紙質地圖導航。他們用 CD 聽音樂。照片是在暗室中衝洗的。如果你需要一個送禮物的點子，你可以尋求朋友的建議（面對面或通過電話）。如今，你可以使用數字工具更輕鬆地完成所有這些操作，其成本在大多數情況下也會更低。

That’s all covered in the book (I was thinking and learning about these things obsessively back then). For instance, there’s a chapter on video on demand and computers that will fit in your pocket.

所有這些在這本書裡都有涉及（那時候我一直著魔般地去思考和學習這些東西）。例如，有一章介紹了視頻點播和小到能放到你口袋裡的電腦。

One thing I was probably too optimistic about is the rise of digital agents. It is true that we have Cortana, Siri, and Alexa, but working with them is still far from the rich experience I had in mind in 1995. They don’t yet 「learn about your requirements and preferences in much the way that a human assistant does,」 as I wrote at the time. We’re just at the beginning of what agents will eventually be capable of.

對於有件事我也許過分樂觀了，那就是數字助手的興起。的確，我們有 Cortana、Siri 和 Alexa，但它們使用起來距離我在 1995 年想像到的豐富體驗還相距甚遠。它們還不能做到我所寫的 「像人類助手那樣了解你的要求和偏好」。從數字助手最終將具備的能力來看，我們尚處於初級階段。

Another idea that’s central to The Road Ahead—that technology would allow unprecedented social networking—has pretty much come to pass. I am surprised, though, by the way social networks are both bringing us together and contributing to a more polarized atmosphere. I didn’t anticipate how much people would choose to filter out different perspectives and harden their own views.

《未來之路》中的另一個核心想法——支持前所未有的社交網絡的技術——現在已基本成為了現實。可令我感到驚訝的是，社交網絡既使我們連接在一起，又促成了一個更加分化的氛圍。我沒想到有那麼多人會選擇過濾掉與自己不同的觀點，並更加堅持自己的觀點。

One thing I wrote about that hasn’t happened yet—but I still think will happen—is the way the Internet will affect the structure of our cities. Today the cost of living in a dense downtown, like Seattle’s, is so high that many workers (including teachers, police officers, and baristas) can’t afford to live there. Even high earners spend a disproportionate percentage of their income on rent. As a result, some cities are arguably too successful, and others are not successful enough. It’s a real problem for our country.

我寫的另一件尚未發生的事——但我仍然認為會發生——是網際網路將影響我們城市的結構。如今，在人口密集的市中心（像西雅圖鬧市區）生活的成本是如此之高，以至於許多工人（包括教師、警察和咖啡師）無法負擔在那裡生活。即使是高收入者，也要將其收入的很大一部分用於支付房租。因此，可以說有些城市過於成功，而另一些城市則不夠成功。對於我們國家來說，這是一個真正的問題。

But as digital technology makes it easier to work at home, then you can commute less often. That, in turn, makes it more attractive to live farther away from the office, where you can afford a bigger house than in the city center. It also reduces the number of cars on the road at any given time. Over time, these shifts would mean major changes in the ways our cities work and are built.

但隨著數位技術使在家工作更加容易，你可以減少通勤。這會讓住在離辦公室更遠的地方更具吸引力，在那裡你可以負擔得起比在市中心更大的房子。這也減少了特定時間在道路上的汽車數量。隨著時間的推移，這些轉變將意味著我們城市的工作和構造方式都會發生重大改變。

We’re starting to see some of these effects come into play now, as office workers stay home because of COVID-19. Microsoft recently announced a policy recognizing that doing some work from home (for less than 50 percent of the time) will be standard even after the pandemic is over and their offices open back up. I think this trend will accelerate in the coming years.

當上班族因為新冠肺炎疫情而留在家中，我們正看到這其中的一些影響開始起作用。微軟最近宣布了一項政策，認可即使在大流行結束並且辦公室重新開放之後，員工在家辦公（不超過百分之五十的時間）也將符合規定。我認為這種趨勢將在未來幾年中加速發展。

The Road Ahead has a lot in common with my new book, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster. Both are about how technology and innovation can help solve important problems. Both share glimpses into the cutting-edge technology I get to learn about.

《未來之路》與我的新書《如何避免一場氣候災難》有很多共同點。兩者都談論了技術和創新如何幫助解決重要的問題，都分享了我學習到的對於尖端技術見解。

One thing is different: The stakes are higher with climate change. As passionate as I am about software, the effort to avoid a climate disaster has. Failing to get this right will have bad consequences for humanity. But you can also see the glass as half full. There are huge opportunities to solve this problem, eliminate our greenhouse gas emissions, and create new industries that make clean energy available and affordable for everyone—including people in the world’s poorest countries.

不同的一點在於：氣候變化的風險更大。如同我對軟體抱有的熱情一樣，我對避免一場氣候災難的努力也充滿熱情。做不好這件事將給人類帶來不好的後果。但你也可以認為八字已有一撇。我們擁有巨大的機遇來解決這一問題，消除我們的溫室氣體排放，以及建立讓所有人（包括生活在最貧窮國家的人們）都能用得上和用得起清潔能源的新行業。

I’m excited to get the new book out there and continue the conversation about how to keep the planet livable for everyone.

我很期待發布這本新書，以及繼續探討如何保持地球適宜所有人居住。