Statkraft預測,從2035年開始,太陽能光伏發電將成為最大的發電來源。
挪威開發商發布的《低排放情景報告》中預測,到2050年,全球發電能力將增加三倍,其中可再生能源的發電量將超過新增發電量的總和。
《低排放方案》對未來30年歐洲的能源使用和可再生能源工業的變化進行了規劃和詳細說明。
它還分析了歐洲在能源過渡時期可能面臨的潛在障礙,及其後果。
研究結果表明,到250年,全球與能源相關的二氧化碳排放量將下降47%,溫度將保持在2攝氏度左右。
在直接電氣化是一個挑戰的情況下,無排放的氫將在過渡到可再生能源方面發揮越來越大的作用。
Statkraft表示,由於Covid-19大流行導致經濟增長放緩、電氣化程度顯著提高以及能源效率的提高,2050年對一次能源的需求(在源頭創造的)將與今天相同。
封鎖措施減少了旅行,增加了數字解決方案的使用,並導致了消費量的急劇下降,如果這些措施導致解除限制和疫情結束後發生永久性變化,則可能會對能源系統產生長期影響,這比預期的要好,加速了過渡。
該報告還說,儘管發生了Covid-19疫情,可再生能源似乎是2020年實現產量增長的唯一能源。
原文閱讀:
Statkraft is forecasting that solar PV will become the largest source of power generation from 2035.
The Norwegian developer's Low Emissions Scenario report, released in time for UK Wind Week, predicts a three-fold increase in global power capacity to 2050 with more than the entire increase expected to be covered by renewable energy.
The Low Emissions Scenario projects and details how energy usage, and the renewable energy industry, will change across Europe in the next 30 years.
It has also analysed the potential barriers Europe could face in the transition, and what their consequences would be.
The findings suggest that the world's energy-related CO2 emissions will fall by 47% towards 2050, following a 2 degree Celsius pathway.
Emission-free hydrogen will play an increasing role bridging the transition to renewables where direct electrification is a challenge.
Statkraft UK managing director David Flood said: "As we draw closer to COP26, it's more important than ever to look to the future and, in particular, the pathway to net zero.
「Our Low Emissions Scenario outlines our projections for the decades ahead and shows how different events could impact a low emission future.
「These findings complement our own mission to develop at least 8GW of wind and solar power by 2025 - building a cleaner, greener future of energy generation".
The demand for primary energy (created at source) in 2050 will be the same level as it is today, as a result of lower economic growth as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, significant electrification and energy efficiency improvements, Statkraft suggests.
Lockdown measures have reduced travelling, increased the use of digital solutions and resulted in a sharp fall in consumption, and if these measures lead to permanent changes after the restrictions are lifted and the pandemic is over, the long-term effects on energy systems may be greater than expected, it said, accelerating the transition.
The report also says that renewable energy appears to be the only source of energy to have experienced production growth in 2020 despite the Covid-19 pandemic.