A last-ditch global warming fix? A man-made 'volcanic' eruption全球變暖的最後一招？人為的火山噴發
▌ 部分素材來源於NBC，世界播團隊翻譯
Scientists and some environmentalists believe nations might have to mimic volcanic gases as a last-ditch effort to protect Earth from extreme warming.
科學家和一些環保人士認為，各國可能不得不模仿火山氣體，作為保護地球免受極端氣候變暖影響的最後努力。
A soldier walks towards an abandoned house as Mt. Pinatubo spews ash as high as 19 kilometers in its continued eruption on June 19, 1991. Bullit Marquez / AP file
1991年6月19日，皮納圖博火山持續噴發，噴出高達19公裡的火山灰，一名士兵走向一座廢棄的房子。布利特·馬克斯/美聯社
The international panel charged with reining in climate change said this week that the world needs to take "unprecedented" steps to remake its energy, transportation and agriculture systems to avoid the worst effects of global warming.
負責控制氣候變化的國際委員會本周表示，世界需要採取「前所未有」的措施來改造其能源、交通和農業系統，以避免全球變暖帶來的最壞影響。
What the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not discuss was an even more radical potential response — one that would re-engineer Earth’s stratosphere to create a massive heat shield by effectively duplicating the fallout that follows a volcanic eruption.
政府間氣候變化專門委員會沒有討論的是一種更激進的潛在反應——通過有效地複製火山噴發後的餘塵一類的沉降物，重新設計地球的平流層，以創造一個巨大的隔熱層。
This kind of revolutionary 「solar geoengineering」 — known by some as the 「Pinatubo Strategy,」 after a volcano whose 1991 eruption shrouded the planet in a sulfurous cloud — was once relegated to a far corner of academia. But a number of scientists and environmental advocates said this week that the IPCC report — punctuated by Hurricane Michael, which hit the Florida panhandle and may have been intensified by global warming — argues for speeding up the study of the once unthinkable.
這種革命性的「太陽地球工程」——被一些人稱為「皮納圖博戰略」——是在1991年火山爆發後將地球籠罩在一片硫磺的雲層中之後才出現的——曾經一度被置於學術界的一個很遙遠的角落。但許多科學家和環保倡導者本周表示，IPCC的報告——在襲擊佛羅裡達狹長地帶並可能因全球變暖而加劇的颶風麥可的幹擾下——主張加快對曾經不可想像的事情的研究。
「The politics of this were impossible a few years ago. But not so much now,」 said Rafe Pomerance, chairman of the environmental alliance Arctic 21 and a four-decade advocate of increased action on global warming. 「If we think the problem of climate change is catastrophic, how can we say that we can’t at least consider this as an option?」
「幾年前，這種政治是不可能的。但現在沒有那麼多了，「北極21號環保聯盟主席、40年來倡導加大全球變暖行動力度的雷夫·波默倫斯表示：「如果我們認為氣候變化問題是災難性的，我們怎麼能說我們至少不能把這當作一種選擇呢？」
That view was seconded this week by the 「grandfather」 of modern climate science, by the founder of the Harvard laboratory that is a center of geoengineering research and even by scientists who have raised serious reservations about human tampering with the Earth's singular climate system.
這一觀點在本周得到了現代氣候科學的「鼻祖」、地球工程研究中心哈佛實驗室創始人的支持，甚至還有一些科學家對人類幹預地球獨特的氣候系統持嚴重保留態度。
「I think it makes sense to have a substantially larger research effort on solar geoengineering,」 said David Keith, the professor of applied physics who leads Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program. Like others who have looked at the unusual alternative, Keith believes that humankind’s primary focus should be on reducing greenhouse gas emissions by cutting coal-powered energy, shifting to non-fossil-fuel burning vehicles, and many other changes.
大衛·基思表示：「我認為在太陽能地球工程方面進行更大規模的研究是有意義的」，他是哈佛大學太陽能地球工程研究項目的應用物理學教授。與其他關注這一不同尋常的替代能源的人一樣，基思認為，人類的首要任務應該是通過減少煤炭能源、轉向使用非化石燃料的汽車以及其他許多改變來減少溫室氣體的排放。
「No scientists working in the field think geoengineering is a 'solution' to the global warming program,」 said Alan Robock, a professor of atmospheric science at Rutgers University. 「It may be a temporary Band-Aid or tourniquet, but only mitigation will solve the global warming problem.」
羅格斯大學大氣科學教授艾倫·羅博克指出：「在該領域工作的科學家中，沒有人認為地球工程是全球變暖計劃的『解決方案』。」「這可能是暫時的創可貼或止血帶，但只有緩解措施才能解決全球變暖的問題。」
The climate intervention most commonly discussed by researchers grows out of observations made following two very large volcanic eruptions — at El Chichon in the Mexican state of Chiapas in 1982 and at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. In both cases, sulfur dioxide gas from the volcanoes spiraled into upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere known as the stratosphere. There, the gas combined with hydrogen and produced the fine droplets or powder that scientists called 「aerosols.」 Those particles reflected enough sunlight back into space to cool Earth’s surface by 0.3 to 0.5 degrees Celsius (nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit). In the case of Pinatubo, the cooling lasted for about a year.
研究人員最常討論的氣候幹預是在兩次非常大的火山爆發後進行的觀察——1982年在墨西哥恰帕斯州的埃爾奇雄和1991年在菲律賓的皮納圖博山。在這兩種情況下，來自火山的二氧化硫氣體螺旋上升式進入地球大氣層的上層，即平流層。在那裡，氣體與氫相結合，產生了科學家稱之為「氣溶膠」的微小液滴或粉末。這些粒子將足夠的陽光反射回太空，使地球表面冷卻0.3到0.5攝氏度(接近1華氏度)。以皮納圖博為例，冷卻持續了大約一年。
Researchers have envisioned duplicating the phenomenon by launching jets equipped to fly to 70,000 feet, the lower reaches of the stratosphere, where they would release a sulfur compound. The effort would bleach blue skies a lighter color and make sunsets more vivid, while shielding Earth from some of the sun's rays.
研究人員設想通過發射能飛到平流層下遊70，000英尺的噴氣機來複製這種現象，在那裡他們會釋放出一種硫化合物。這一努力將使藍色天空變得更加明亮，使日落更加生動，同時保護地球免受一些太陽射線照射的傷害。
The flights would have to be numerous and long-running to create anything like the reflective power of the volcanic eruptions. But Keith and others believe the technical hurdles could be cleared and an aerosol 「umbrella」 created, at least for a time.
要創造出類似於火山爆發那樣的反射力，這些飛行必須要進行大量的、長時間的運行。但基思和其他人認為，至少在一段時間內，技術上的障礙可以被清除，並創造出一個氣溶膠「保護傘」。
The National Center for Atmospheric Research, a nonprofit that is a leading climate research center, has run computer simulations that show such a program would cool the Earth’s surface. The cooling could reach 1 degree Celsius if Pinatubo-level sulfur injections could be duplicated continuously, said Simone Tilmes, a research scientist at the Boulder, Colorado-based center.
美國國家大氣研究中心是一家領先的氣候研究中心，實際上它夜是一個非盈利性組織，該中心已經進行了計算機模擬顯示，表明這樣的程序會冷卻地球表面。科羅拉多州博爾德中心的一位研究科學家西蒙妮·蒂爾梅斯表示，如果皮納圖博水平的硫磺注入可以連續重複，冷卻溫度可以達到1攝氏度。
Without endorsing or rejecting such a project, the National Academy of Sciences in 2015 recommended more research. The Obama administration also endorsed more study.
2015年，美國國家科學院在沒有支持或拒絕這樣一個項目的情況下，建議進行更多的研究。歐巴馬政府也支持更多的研究。
So what are the potential drawbacks?
那麼潛在的缺點是什麼呢？
Many, according to a list of 27 「concerns and risks」 outlined by Robock in a 2016 paper that also concluded more research was needed. Among the potential downsides: depleting the ozone layer, failing to slow ocean acidification, slowing plant and crop growth, diminishing solar electric power and — among the most daunting concerns — triggering unexpected consequences.
根據羅博克在2016年發表的一篇論文中列出的27個「擔憂和風險」清單，很多問題都需要進一步研究。潛在的不利因素包括：破壞臭氧層、未能減緩海洋酸化、植物和作物生長放緩、太陽能發電減弱，以及（其中最令人生畏的擔憂）引發意想不到的後果。
One unintended consequence of climate engineering might be the 「moral hazard」 of driving humanity away from the kind of deep-seated cultural, economic and political changes needed to put the planet on a more sustainable path, Robock wrote.
羅博克寫道，氣候工程一個意想不到的後果可能是「道德風險」，驅使人類遠離那種使地球走上更可持續道路所需的根深蒂固的文化、經濟和政治變革。
The Rutgers scientist also expressed alarm at how some researchers seemed to ignore potential risks when he first heard the subject discussed, at a meeting in 2006. 「The hubris of some, who thought that this was just a mechanical or physical problem to solve,」 Robock wrote, 「and the lack of awareness of the science of climate change and the natural chaotic variability of climate, was very scary.」
羅格斯大學的這位科學家還對一些研究人員在2006年的一次會議上首次聽到這個話題時似乎忽視了潛在的風險表示了擔憂。羅博克寫道：「有些人狂妄自大，認為這只是機械或物理上需要解決的問題，而對氣候變化科學和氣候自然的混亂變化缺乏認識，這是非常可怕的。」
Tilmes agreed that the work should proceed judiciously "in order to understand if this approach should be considered as an option in addition to large-scale mitigation. At this point, there are too many uncertainties to rely on [geoengineering] and more research is needed."
蒂爾梅斯同意，這項工作應該明智地進行，「以便了解除了大規模減排之外，這一辦法是否應被視為一種選擇。在這一點上，有太多的不確定性可以依賴[地球工程]，我們還需要更多的研究。」
Scientists in the field are nearly unanimous in believing that humanity must radically reduce the amount of carbon it pumps into the atmosphere to preserve the long-term livability of the planet. The IPCC report this week said that any temperature increase of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) will increase droughts, coastal flooding and destruction of critical natural habitats like coral reefs and Arctic permafrost.
這一領域的科學家們幾乎一致認為，人類必須從根本上減少它向大氣中注入的碳量，以保護地球的長期宜居性。聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會本周的報告稱，任何超過1.5攝氏度(約2.7華氏度)的氣溫升高都將加劇乾旱、沿海洪水以及珊瑚礁和北極永久凍土等關鍵自然棲息地的破壞。
But progress toward that target remains painfully slow, said Wallace Broecker, a professor of geology at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
但是，哥倫比亞大學拉蒙特-多爾蒂地球天文臺觀測站的地質學教授華萊士·布羅克表示，實現這一目標的進程仍然非常緩慢。
「We are converting to non-fossil fuels at a little less than 1 percent a year and that means it takes 100 years to completely move off fossil fuels,」 Broecker said. 「We have really put ourselves in a very dangerous position by letting so much carbon dioxide go into the atmosphere without any short-term hope of getting it back again.」
布羅克說：「我們正在以每年不到1%的速度轉換成非化石燃料，這意味著我們需要100年才能完全擺脫化石燃料。」「我們真的排放了這麼多的二氧化碳進入大氣層，卻沒有任何短期恢復的希望，這使我們自己處於一個非常危險的境地。」
The veteran scientist, dubbed the "grandfather" of climate change research, said he does not see the kind of "heart" and political will needed to sustain "a World War II-scale effort" to limit greenhouse gases. "So far, actual action is small," Broecker said. "So I am convinced that, at some time, we will have to get into geoengineering.」
這位被稱為氣候變化研究「鼻祖」的資深科學家表示，他沒有看到維持「第二次世界大戰規模的努力」以限制溫室氣體所需的那種「心」和政治意願。「到目前為止，實際行動很小，」 布羅克說：「因此，我確信，在某個時候，我們將不得不進入地球工程領域。」
While not a preferred option, creating a shield for some of the sun’s heat could be a temporary solution that allows humankind time to reduce behaviors that are warming the planet, advocates say.
倡導者表示，雖然這不是一個好的選擇，但為太陽的一些部分熱量製造一個屏障可能是一種就暫時而言最好的解決辦法，它可以讓人類有時間減少目前正在導致地球變暖的行為。
「If you took a vote, there would be a lot of opposition to trying this, because people don’t want mankind to start fooling around with climate,」 Broecker said. 「They are right. But maybe we are going to have to.」
布羅克指出：「如果你進行表決，就會有很多人反對你這樣的做法，因為人們不希望人類開始在氣候問題上胡鬧。」「他們是對的。但也許我們不得不這樣做。」
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