本作品由烽火數聞團隊向CGTN供稿，原標題為 Is Trump or Biden winning on the Twitter battlefield? 感謝清華大學金兼斌老師團隊對本作品的數據分析支持。
A Trumpian Twitter storm swept the social media platform after the final presidential debate. On October 23, the U.S. president posted 21 tweets related to his rival, while Democratic candidate Joe Biden counterattacked 13 times, repeating the scenario that followed the first debate.
美國總統選舉最後一場辯論之後，川普式的「推特風暴」席捲社交平臺。10月23日，這位美國總統發布了21條與競選對手相關的推特，而民主黨候選人喬·拜登也反擊了13條，重演了第一場辯論後的情景。
Twitter, the hottest social platform in the U.S., is now an important battlefield in the 2020 presidential election.
推特，這一美國目前最火的社交平臺，已然成為2020年總統大選的一個重要戰場。
By analyzing the two candidates』 tweets mentioning each other from July 24 to October 24, we can identify aspects of their online strategies.
通過分析7月24日到10月24日期間，兩位候選人提及彼此的相關推文，我們可以描繪出他們線上策略的不同側面。
Trump preferred to attack Biden’s personality. For example, the word 「sleepy」 ranks fifth in the list of Trump’s Twitter sleights – the president has nicknamed the former vice president 「Sleepy Joe.」
川普更喜歡以拜登的性格作為攻擊點。比如說川普的推文裡，詞頻排名第五的「瞌睡」一詞，就是源於他給這位前美國副總統取的外號「瞌睡蟲·喬」。
He typed 「left」 53 times and 「radical」 39 times to argue that Biden 「wants to protect his Radical Left Democrat enablers.」 With 「China」 mentioned 56 times, Trump also attempted to tie two of his favorite targets together.
而在他推文裡出現53次的「左翼」和39次的「激進」，則是攻擊拜登「想保護他的激進左派民主黨支持者」。在他攻擊拜登的推文裡，也56次提到「中國」，試圖將他最喜歡攻擊的兩個目標聯繫在一起。
Biden, by contrast, regularly used words such as 「America,」 「Americans,」 「country」 and 「nation,」 and offered specific criticism of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, regularly including the keywords 「COVID-19,」 「health,」 「care,」 「crisis」 and 「pandemic,」 and contending that Trump has 「failed to protect America.」
相比之下，拜登經常使用諸如「美國」「美國人」「國家」和「民族」等詞彙。從他推文高頻詞「新冠病毒」「健康」「護理」「危機」和「大流行」也可看出，他對川普處理新冠肺炎危機的方式提出了具體批評，並且指責川普「未能保護美國」。
Trump has a reputation for tweeting more aggressively than Biden, but VADER, a sentiment analysis tool, doesn’t suggest a significant difference between the candidates』 approaches. The sentiment of Trump’s tweets about Biden was only slightly more negative than Biden’s about Trump.
雖然人們通常認為，川普在推特上的攻擊性比拜登要強，但當我們用情緒分析工具VADER分析時發現，兩位候選人的推文情感值並沒有顯著的不同。只不過川普在推文中對拜登的情緒，比拜登對川普的要略微負面一些。
So, in the fierce Twitter battle, who is winning?
那麼，在激烈的推特戰場上，誰獲勝了?
Biden’s tweets were more focused on attacks on Trump. While Trump tweeted almost twice as often about his rival, his number of overall posts was over three times greater.
雖然川普提到拜登的次數幾乎是拜登提到他的兩倍，發布各類推文的總條數也是拜登的三倍之多，但拜登的推文更專注於攻擊川普。
Trump’s 581 tweets about Biden as a proportion of his 3,411 in total was lower than Biden's 299 tweets about Trump of his 1,061 in total. Meanwhile, Biden wrote 256 original tweets about Trump, to Trump’s 224 about Biden.
川普的3411條推文中，只有581條提及了拜登，這一比例遠低於在1061條推特中299次提及川普的拜登。同時，拜登為攻擊川普而寫了256條原創推文，而川普僅原創了224條。
Data also suggests that Trump may have been more influential on Twitter, but Biden has become more popular over the past three months.
數據還顯示，在過去三個月裡，川普在推特上更有影響力，但是變得更受歡迎的是拜登。
Trump’s posts related to Biden were spread more widely with 8.47 million retweets, which can indicate agreement or disagreement, whereas Biden’s tweets mentioning Trump were retweeted 6.24 million times.
川普提及拜登的推特被廣泛轉發了847萬次，雖然不能確定這種轉發是表示贊成還是反對，但拜登提及川普的推特卻只被轉發了624萬次。
As a result of posting more tweets, Trump's total likes in the period were somewhat higher than Biden's, though the average number of likes per tweet the president gained fell slightly from 123.5 thousand in August to 123.3 thousand in October, while Biden’s jumped from 75.6 thousand to 161.2 thousand in the same period.
由於川普的推特條數更多，川普得到的點讚總數要略高於拜登。可從他們每月的平均點讚數來看，總統推文從8月的12.35萬個，略降到10月的12.33萬個。而同期，拜登的平均點讚數則從7.56萬個上升到16.12萬個。
The turning point occurred in the week of October 2-8, in which Trump said he had tested positive for COVID-19. Biden’s tweet wishing Trump and his wife a speedy recovery from the disease on October 2 was liked more than 959,000 times, the highest of any post in the period. After that, Biden’s advantage narrowed but continued until the final presidential debate.
轉折點發生在10月2日至8日，這一周，川普宣布他的新冠病毒檢測結果呈陽性。拜登10月2日祝福川普和他妻子儘快痊癒的這一條推特，獲得了高達95.9萬個點讚，是兩人同期所有推特中獲贊最多的。此後，拜登的優勢有所下滑，但直到最終辯論，他仍舊保持領先。
In recent months, Biden has reduced the gap with Trump on twitter by updating more original and targeted tweets. If 「retweets」 means reach and 「likes」 reflects preference, Biden is beating Trump on the Twitter battlefield despite having fewer followers.
近幾個月，拜登通過更多的原創內容和有針對性的推文，縮小了在推特上與川普的差距。如果「轉發」意味著影響力，而「點讚」反映支持率，儘管拜登的推特關注者更少，但在推特的戰場上，他擊敗了川普。
（發布於 2020.11.4 2:32 PM GMT+8）