本文選自《經濟學人》9月19日刊文章。20世紀是石油的時代，而21世紀將是去碳化清潔新能源的時代。全球氣候變暖、遍布在世界各地的火災、南北極冰架的融化，都在警示人類要能源去碳化，而席捲全球的新冠疫情加速了這一進程。過去十年，美國頁巖油迅猛發展，一度改變世界能源的格局，美國也想通過頁巖油來影響控制中國的能源供應，但疫情加速的全球能源去碳化浪潮讓美國的算盤落空。與此同時，過去十年，中國致力於風能、太陽能等清潔新能源的發展，在新一輪的能源洗牌中，中國將佔據主動權。在全球能源轉型中，那些曾依靠石油出口的國家將遭受痛苦，甚至出現地緣政治動蕩，而那些掌握清潔能源先機的國家會成為新清潔能源的弄潮兒。
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The new energy order 新能源秩序Is it the end of the oil age?Power in the 21st centuryThe 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.21世紀的能源體系有望比石油時代更好——更有利於人類健康，政治穩定，經濟繁榮。這種轉變蘊含著巨大的風險，如果出現混亂，它可能會加劇石油國家的政治和經濟不穩定，並加強中國對綠色供應鏈的控制。更危險的是，這種轉變可能會太慢。Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.今天，化石燃料佔能源最終來源的85%。但是這個體系不清潔，溫室氣體排放量的三分之二來自於能源排放，燃燒化石燃料造成的汙染每年導致400多萬人死亡，其中大部份在新興國家的特大城市。石油也造成了政治不穩定。幾十年來，由於缺乏發展經濟的動力，委內瑞拉和沙烏地阿拉伯等石油國家一直深陷政府派發福利補貼和任人唯親的政治泥潭。為了確保石油供應的安全，世界各大國競相對這些國家施加影響，尤其是中東，美國約有6萬士兵駐守在那裡。化石燃料也會導致經濟波動，石油市場受到一個反覆無常的卡特爾組織的操控，全球石油儲備的集中使得供應容易受到地緣政治衝擊的影響。難怪自1970年以來，油價在六個月的時間內波動超過30%的次數有62次。A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.新能源體系的藍圖正在浮現。如果採取大刀闊斧的行動，太陽能和風能等可再生能源電力在2035年將從目前的5%上升到25%，到2050年將接近50%。石油和煤炭的使用將會下降，儘管更清潔的天然氣仍將佔據中心位置，這種架構最終將帶來巨大的好處。最重要的是，脫碳能源將避免不受控制的氣候變化帶來的混亂，包括毀滅性的乾旱、饑荒、洪水和大規模混亂。一旦成熟，它在政治上也會更加穩定，因為從地理上和技術上來說，脫碳能源的供應將是多樣化的。石油國家將不得不嘗試自我改革，隨著它們的政府開始依賴對本國公民徵稅，一些國家將變得更具代表性。曾經通過幹預石油生產國政治來尋求能源安全的石油消費國，將轉而關注對本國電力行業的合理監管。21世紀的體系在經濟上也會更加穩定，電價將不是由幾個大公司決定，而是由競爭和逐步提高效率決定。掃描文末二維碼加我微信（ID: madandan2020），將分享截圖發我即可。1. 每天一篇精選最新外刊文章的英文原文（主要選自《經濟學人》雜誌）
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