It's 8.30 pm on January 17th. Alexei Navalny and his wife Yulia stride through the arrivals terminal of Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport. A gaggle of journalists is trying to keep up. Mr Navalny spots a bright poster of the Kremlin on the wall. He stops in front of it. Cameras snap. "I am not afraid...this is the happiest day for the past five months of my life," Mr Navalny declares. "I have come home."
2021年1月17日,晚,8:30。阿列克謝·納瓦利內和妻子尤利婭走過謝列梅捷沃國際機場國際到達航站樓。一群記者蜂擁而至。納瓦利內發現一副顏色鮮亮的克裡姆林宮海報。他來到海報前。快門聲四起。「我並不害怕。今天是我過去五個月以來,最開心的一天。我回家了。」
Those were Mr Navalny's first public words back on Russian soil. Moments after he spoke, he was detained by officers in black uniforms at passport control, who led him away into the unknown. His wife hugged and kissed him, then wiped her lipstick from his cheek, uncertain when and if she would see him again.
這是納瓦利內回到俄羅斯國土後的第一次發言。片刻之後,他被邊檢處身穿黑色制服的工作人員帶走,前路未知。他的妻子擁抱了他,在他的臉頰上吻了一下。隨後又擦掉他臉上的口紅印。她也不知道何時才能再見到自己的丈夫,或者也有可能,這就是最後一面。
A few hours later, far from the cameras, he was transferred to a police station. The next day, he was put on trial in a makeshift courtroom. "I have seen a lot of mockery of justice, but this time, in his bunker he has demonstrably torn into pieces Russia's criminal code and thrown it into a dump," he said.
幾小時後,納瓦利內被帶到了一處警察局。沒有留下任何圖像資料。第二天,納瓦利內在一處臨時審判室上庭。「我見過太多對正義的嘲弄,但這一次,他在自己的國家,視本國刑法為無物,這一點無可否認。」
After a brief hearing, the court sentenced him to 30 days' detention for violating parole while recuperating in Germany from the assassination attempt. Before that sentence ends, on February 2nd, he will be back on trial. The next court will probably jail him for three-and-a-half years, a sentence that had earlier been suspended, on charges of embezzlement that are widely considered to have been trumped up. Mr Navalny's real crime is to have exposed the actions of the Russian security services and to have returned home.
短暫的聽證會之後,納瓦利內被判30日拘留,因為他在暗殺事件之後去往德國進行康復,這一點違反了假釋條例。在拘留結束之前,2月2日,納瓦利內即將再次出庭。這次庭審可能判處他3.5年的監禁。此前他正處於緩刑當中。罪名為挪用公款,但多數人對其真實性存疑。納瓦利內真正的罪行,就是在他揭露了俄羅斯安全部門的問題過後仍然選擇回國。
The scenes at the airport were just a warm-up. On January 19th, the day after the trial, Mr Navalny's team released an explosive two-hour film about Mr Putin's finances and a secret palace on the Black Sea coast that Mr Navalny alleges his friends have built for him at a cost of $1.35bn filched from Russia taxpayers.
機場的這一幕僅僅是一個預熱。1月19日,也就是第一次庭審後的第二天,納瓦利內的團隊發布了一則時長2小時的視頻錄像。這則視頻足矣引發爆炸性後果。視頻關於普金總統的經濟問題,以及在黑海邊的一處秘密宮殿。納瓦利內聲稱其朋友參與建造。總花費約13.5億美元。這都是從俄羅斯納稅人身上搜刮來的錢財。
A camera-equipped drone shows 78 square kilometers of vineyards and parks with a church, an arboretum and a classical theatre, not to mention the residence itself — a 17,700 square meter Italianate palace filled with baroque furniture, a casino, and a hookah lounge. In less than a day after it appeared, the film had clocked up 20m views.
裝有攝像頭的無人機拍下了78平方公裡的酒莊和公園,還有一處教堂、一間植物園和一座古典劇院。居住區為1.77萬平方米的義大利風格的宮宇,巴洛克風格的裝修,包括賭場和水煙館。視頻上線不到一天,觀看量達到兩千萬次。
The fact that Mr Navalny's team could evade security and put on public view one of the best-protected properties in the world is jaw-dropping, and humiliating for the Kremlin. And the symbolism of the palace itself does not flatter the regime. It is not like, say, the palace at Versailles, which was built to show off the power of France's Sun King, Louis XIV. On the contrary, it is hidden from view, conveying the opacity and obsession with money at the heart of the Russian state.
納瓦利內能夠躲過安全部門的天羅地網,將這座層層保護的宮殿公之於眾,令人瞠目結舌,更是對克裡姆林宮的巨大侮辱。這座宮殿本身並不是政權的象徵。法國的凡爾賽宮是對太陽王路易十四政權高調展示。相反,普金的宮殿只體現出俄羅斯政權核心是如何利慾薰心、斂財無度。
In the past, Mr Navalny's investigations into corruption largely focused on Mr Putin's entourage and cronies. He refrained from attacking Mr Putin personally; not out of fear, but because so many Russians admire their president. The latest film aims to puncture Mr Putin's legitimacy in the eyes of the public. That could earn Mr Navalny a long spell behind bars, or worse.
過去,納瓦利內對於腐敗現狀的調查炮火集中在普京的幕僚和密友身上,通常迴避普金本人。這並不是出於懼怕,而是考慮到俄羅斯民眾對總統的愛戴。但是這次的視頻等同於在公眾面前撕破普金本人的合法面具。這一行為,可能為納瓦利內帶來的是常年的監禁,甚至更加嚴重的後果。
However, the Kremlin is faced with a dilemma. To imprison Mr Navalny now would be to turn him into a Nelson Mandela figure. To kill him would cement Mr Putin's legacy not as the restorer of Russia's lost empire and prestige, as he would like to see himself, but aas something closer to a vengeful mafia boss.
然而,克裡姆林宮同樣陷入兩難。眼下如果監禁納瓦利內,無疑是親手將他塑造成為俄羅斯曼德拉。如果殺掉納瓦利內,又等於推翻普金作為俄羅斯失落帝國與威望的修復者形象。使他看起來像是一個殺紅了眼的黑手黨大佬。
Mr Navalny may see himself as a revolutionary. What is missing is the revolution. Only 23% of the public think political protests are possible where they live, according to a snap poll by the Levada Center.
納瓦利內覺得自己是個革命者。但卻沒有獲得革命的機會。在列瓦達分析中心的一次實時調查中,只有23%的民眾認為可能發生政治抗議。
Why, then, has the challenger taken the gigantic risk of coming back to Russia and launching a direct attack on the Kremlin, which has already once tried to kill him? His may be a courage that borders on the suicidal. Yet he is no madman. Rather, Mr Navalny is a politician aiming to achieve power by democratic means, and determined to turn his country into a modern republic. As he says in his film, Mr Putin's regime, like its Soviet predecessor, is primarily held together by fear and lies. Having first come into politics through the internet and social media, Mr Navalny has mastered its resources to destroy the Kremlin's monopoly on propaganda. The number of people who have viewed Mr Navalny's film already dwarfs the audiences of any news show on state television.
那麼,到底為什麼納瓦利內冒著極大的風險回國,又將矛頭直指曾對他下殺手的克裡姆林宮呢?可能是一種自我毀滅式的勇氣吧。他還不是一個瘋子。納瓦利內仍是一位試圖用民主手段獲取政權的政客。他希望帶領他的國家走向現代共和政體。正如他在影片中所說,普金的政權和那些蘇維埃領導人一樣,是建立在恐懼和謊言之上的團結。納瓦利內最初是通過網際網路和社交媒體進入政界的,他掌握了政界的資源,終結了克裡姆林宮在宣傳上的一手遮天。觀看納瓦利內視頻的人數已經遠超國家電視臺任何一檔新聞節目的收視量。
Yet, as Mr Navalny has often said at his real-life rallies, the biggest obstacle to ditching the current regime and moving towards "A bright future for Russia", as he has branded his project, is not Mr Putin, his muscular goons or his propaganda, but the learned helplessness, resignation, and fear that afflict so many of his compatriots.
納瓦利內在不斷康復,他將自己的競選宣言定為「俄羅斯光明未來」。他常說,政權向「光明未來」前進的阻礙並不是普金,也不是他的幕僚或宣傳手段,而是擺在眼前的無助、順從和恐懼對俄羅斯民眾的折磨。
By walking back into the lion's den he is hoping to help the Russian public to jettison that fear. As he said from his courtroom: "Do not be afraid, take to the streets not for my sake, but for your own sake and your future! The only thing to be scared of is your own fear." He has called for a countrywide protest on January 23rd. On TikTok, a social-media platform, videos with the hashtag "23 January" have already generated tens of millions of views. Whether those will turn into real people will perhaps determine Mr Navalny's fate — and that of his audacious project.
回到龍潭虎穴,納瓦利內希望幫助俄羅斯民眾擺脫這種恐懼。他在法庭上說,「不要害怕,走上街頭。這不是為了我,是為了你們自己,也為了你們的未來。唯一該懼怕的是你們自己內心的恐懼。」納瓦利內呼籲在1月23日進行全國性抗議。抖音平臺上,話題「1月23日」發布量已過千萬。有多少人真正走上街頭可能將決定納瓦利內的命運和他無畏競選之路的最終結局。
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