China’s much-needed baby boom has been a bust
Taipei, taiwan — When Chinese families were ordered to stay at home last year amid the coronavirus outbreak, authorities hoped for a much-needed baby boom.
It turns out that few couples were in the mood. New data this week showed that birthrates in the country continued to plummet, with 10.04 million births registered in 2020, a 15 percent drop from the year before, according to the Ministry of Public Security.
Although not the official birth-rate, the latest figure was a third lower than the number of births recorded in 2019 — already the country’s lowest since the early 1960s, when China was in the middle of a famine. Yet, residents were not surprised by the data.
「A baby boom? You』ve got to be kidding me. Who would have a kid now? Raising a kid is asking for death,」 one commentator wrote on the microblog Weibo. 「When you have no income, who would dare make another life?」 another said, referring to the economic strain many felt as the country ground to a halt.
「Whoever predicted a coronavirus baby boom must be disappointed. Faced with panic, we care more about survival,」 one user wrote. 「Who was in the mood to make babies?」 another asked incredulously.
China has been working to reverse falling birthrates caused in part by decades of population controls. After the country relaxed its infamous one-child policy in 2016, allowing couples to have two children, initiatives have ranged from the supportive to the punitive.
Local authorities have offered child-care subsidies and extended parental leave while others have ordered party cadres to set an example by having more children. China’s first civil code, which took effect last month, enshrined a 「cooling off 」 period for couples applying for divorce.
Policymakers face a demographic crisis that could cause the country’s population to start to shrink as early as 2027, according to a worst-case estimate from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, resulting in demographic imbalances that would hamper economic growth. India could overtake China to become the world’s most populous country.
Official 2020 population data is expected to be released later this month, but in January some local governments published birth data showing declines as steep as 30 percent.
Experts predict that the government will loosen restrictions further. But it is unclear whether even that would make a difference. An online poll in response to debate online that China could introduce a 「three-child policy」 at a national legislative meeting in March asked whether such a change would increase birthrates. More than 80 percent of about 583,000 respondents said no, citing 「practical reasons」 for the low birthrates.
The coronavirus pandemic exacerbated pressures on parents, including the rising costs and demands of raising a child in China’s hypercompetitive cities.
「During the pandemic, children stayed at home every day and still had to take online classes. Young parents were more stressed. This is the case for one child. Two would be too much to handle,」 Dong Yuzheng, director at the Guangdong Academy of Population Development, told Yicai, a financial news outlet.
In the face of reluctance to have children, some worry that authorities will turn to heavy-handed measures to encourage births. At a local legislative session in Shanxi province in January, Guo Xingping, the head of the Shanxi Province Reproductive Science Institute, called for increasing 「the willingness of people of child-bearing age」 through education and matchmaking to 「guide them to give birth in a timely manner」 between the ages of 21 and 29.
A researcher from the central province of Henan called on the local government to encourage well-educated couples to have more children. Others said authorities should give property to couples for each new child, while some joked that scientists ought to begin researching artificial wombs for men. One financial blogger called for a tax on those who decide not to have children.
Still others have advocated for measures that would address stagnant wages and a lack of government support for families. Liu Hengwei, a gynecologist at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, said the number of births at the hospital last year was as much as 40 percent lower than in 2019. Liu said authorities should find ways to reduce the pressure on young people.
Liu wrote in a post online, 「By improving livelihood and happiness of young people, we will improve the birthrate.」
Still, young Chinese who do not want to have children are likely to chafe under whatever policies are introduced. In response to a de- bate online about how China should escape the 「low fertility trip,」 one commentator wrote: 「Not getting married and not having children was the last right of young people. Now, even this has to be taken hostage.」
The Washington Post | Feb 10 2021
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