我們整理了2020年美國經濟學會年會（AEA）上與能源和環境經濟學相關的報告的題目及摘要，包括來自26個分會的100篇論文。我們將這些論文分為能源（Energy）、氣候（Climate）、汙染（Pollution）、政策（Policy）和資源（Resource）等5個部分。此次推送包含政策主題的6個分會的24篇論文。
4.1 Implementing Environmental Policy
Regulators and Environmental Groups: Better Together than Apart?
In the last two decades, the relationship of environmental groups towards businesses has evolved, from antagonistic to more constructive partnerships, commonly known as 「green alliances.」 They are regarded as a good alternative to environmental policy since firms themselves design and implement the program. But are they a substitute or complement of environmental regulation? In the first case, free-riding incentives arise, implying that regulatory agencies set less stringent policies when green alliances are present. If freeriding incentives are strong, environmental policy could be replaced by green alliances. If, in contrast, green alliances are complementary to environmental policy, regulation becomes more effective at curbing pollution when the EGs are present. Our paper seeks to answer this question, identifying in which contexts green alliances and environmental regulation are substitutes or complements. We evaluate welfare gains from EGs, and whether they are larger when environmental policy is present or absent. We consider a sequential-move game where, first, the EG chooses a collaboration level, which reduces abatement cost. Second, every firm responds selecting its abatement level. Third, the regulator sets an emission fee, while firms compete in quantities. We show that environmental policy becomes less stringent as aggregate investment in abatement increases. This gives rise to free-riding incentives in firms』 abatement decisions, since every firm can benefit from the tax-saving effect. We find that a more generous collaboration effort from the EG induces the regulator to set a less stringent emission fee. We nonetheless identify synergies between the EG and regulator. First, when environmental policy is absent, the EG’s task becomes ineffective. This suggests that green alliances cannot replace regulation since firms need tax incentives to invest in abatement. We show that welfare from regulation becomes larger when the EG is present. That is, regulation is effective when both EG and regulator are active.The Price of Power: Costs of Political Corruption in Indian Electricity
Political capture of public electricity provision may benefit targeted consumers through informal subsidies. However, this causes leakages in utility revenues, inhibiting their ability to reliably supply electricity to the broader consumer base. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, and a confidential dataset on the universe of geo-coded electricity bills from a large state in India, I show that billed electricity consumption is lower for constituencies of the winning party after an election. However, actual consumption, as measured by satellite nighttime lights, is higher for these regions. I find new evidence to explain this discrepancy: politicians illicitly subsidize their constituents by systematically allowing the manipulation of electricity bills. To address this corruption through policy, it is important to measure the size of the welfare losses, and compute demand elasticities. I develop a method to estimate elasticities in the presence of data manipulation by leveraging exogenous variation from policy-led price changes and predictive analytics. The net deadweight loss I estimate is large enough to power 3.7 million rural households over an electoral term.When Threats Become Credible: A Natural Experiment of Environmental Enforcement from Florida
Environmental regulators often use dynamic enforcement, which bases penalties and enforcement effort on plants' past compliance history, to improve compliance and decrease emissions when enforcement resources are limited. Using plant-level data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), I examine an unexpected shift in the use of traditional enforcement by environmental regulators in Florida, showing that all of the state’s plants decreased emissions and improved compliance following an increase in penalties for those with Priority Violations. The largest improvements were observed among plants with the highest expected costs of compliance, which is consistent with the theory of dynamic enforcement. These results are robust to the use of control plants from nearby southern states, as well as control plants selected via a matching algorithm. The paper’s findings (1) provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effectiveness of traditional enforcement actions, and (2) suggest that dynamic incentives may matter for plant compliance decisions.Do Pollution Markets Harm Low Income and Minority Communities? Ranking Emissions Distributions Generated by California`S RECLAIM Program
Adapting results from the income distribution literature, we develop a normatively significant metric with which to rank emissions distributions from alternative policy options in a manner consistent with an explicit well-behaved preference structure. This approach allows one to determine which policy has the most desirable outcome for a given demographic group as well as which groups benefit most from a given policy. Applying these methods to Southern California’s NOx pollution-trading program and a counterfactual command-and-control policy suggests that in this case trading benefited all demographic groups and generated a more equitable overall distribution of emissions, even after controlling for lower aggregate emissions. Upper-income and white demographics had more desirable distributions relative to low-income and some minority groups under the trading program, however, and population shifts over time may have undermined anticipated gains for African Americans.4.2 Politics of Environmental Policymaking
The Macro Effects of Anticipating Climate Policy
The uncertainty surrounding if and when the U.S. government will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk in the decision to invest in long-lived capital assets that are used in conjunction with fossil fuels. To understand how the macroeconomy responds to this climate policy risk, we develop a quantitative model that includes investment in long-lived, sector-specific assets such as coal power plants or wind farms. We infer firms' beliefs about the likelihood of a future carbon tax, using the observed internal carbon prices firms voluntarily levy on themselves. We find that the risk of climate policy in the future reduces emissions today by distorting investment towards a cleaner mix of capital and by depressing overall investment. The emissions reduction caused by climate policy risk is equivalent to the reduction that would be achieved by imposing a carbon tax of $3.21/ton of CO2. More generally, our results demonstrate that, by ignoring the impacts of climate policy risk, existing studies have overstated both the welfare costs and emissions reductions resulting from a carbon tax policy.Micro-targeting Consumers』 Group Identities to Improve Consumptive Efficiency
Using data gathered from an online choice experiment with a field experiment component, we estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for energy efficiency in the context of light bulbs. Using an identity economics framework, we find that liberals have a higher WTP than conservatives, and that both have a significantly positive WTP to conform to their group’s norm energy efficiency consumption level. We introduce two treatments, environmental and patriotic messaging, to highlight negative externalities associated with electricity consumption, as well as a baseline frugality message, finding heterogeneous responses of consumers to the alternative treatments. Using a machine learning model, we simulate energy efficiency decisions if the policy maker were able to optimally 「micro-target」 consumers with the most effective of the three messages. We show micro-targeting can improve energy efficiency significantly more than a homogeneous messaging campaign or substantial subsidies.Solar Geoengineering in a Regional Analytic Climate Economy
The paper analyzes geoengineering and strategic interactions in an integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate change. For this purpose, we (i) derive a new class of solutions to analytic IAMs that allows us to (ii) solve an integrated assessment model with sulfur-based geoengineering and damages in closed form, and to (iii) model realistic strategic interactions between regions. Temperatures respond to carbon dioxide (standard carbon cycle), sulfur injections into the stratosphere (fitted to scientific data), and a potential counter-geoengineering agent that can offset some of the sulfur-based cooling. Damages arise from the increase in temperatures, the chemical agent(s) employed for geoengineering, and the modulation of the radiative energy balance through geoengineering. Our dynamic game involves two active players that are either partially or fully affected by the other region’s geoengineering measures and have the ability to contribute, remain inactive, or offset some of the other region’s cooling measures. We shine new light on the「free-driver" problem popularized by Weitzman (2015), the climate-clash equilibria suggested by Heyen et al. (2019), a somewhat extreme sensitivity of geoengineering measures to potential damages, and the colloquial 「slippery slope" argument showing how the active regions and the rest of the world respond to (some region’s) availability of geoengineering measures. We discuss these findings using analytic solutions for the social cost of carbon (globally or regionally optimal carbon tax).Yea or Nay for Carbon Taxes: Political Economy and Willingness to Pay for Carbon Reduction in Washington
In this study, I investigate the political economy of carbon taxes using voting outcomes for two recent carbon tax initiatives in Washington State. Using spatial analysis, I merge precinct-level voting outcomes with data on household characteristics at the zip code level. I compare and contrast the predictors of support between the two initiatives, revealing how distinct provisions from each initiative beget different voting patterns that align with economic theory. Using additional data on consumption patterns and an extensive catalog of carbon footprints for various consumer activities, I quantify the implied cost of each initiative for a representative household in every precinct. Exploiting cross-sectional variation across zip codes, I estimate a demand curve for carbon taxes and estimate the willingness to pay to reduce carbon emissions.4.3 Environment in a Multisector Economy
Effects of Tightening Renewable Energy Standards: Analytical General Equilibrium Model and Empirical Tests
Our analytical general equilibrium model is used to explain why tightening a state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) unambiguously reduces carbon dioxide emissions but has ambiguous effects on renewable energy development. Second, it shows how the direction and magnitude of the effects of tightening the RPS on both carbon emissions and renewable deployment depend on key factors such as the state’s endowment of intermittent resources like wind and solar potential as well as non-intermittent resources like geothermal or hydropower potential. Results also depend on actual renewable energyintermittency, transmission constraints, the pre-existing renewable energy requirement, each cost share parameter, and each elasticity of substitution. We use the model to generate testable hypotheses, and we use U.S. state-level data from 1990 to 2015 to test these hypotheses.Efficiency Wages, Unemployment, and Environmental Policy
The incidence of environmental policy and its impact on unemployment have played a central role in the political debate over whether and to what extent environmental regulations "kill jobs." We study the incidence of environmental taxes and their impact on unemployment in an analytical general equilibrium model with efficiency wages and involuntary unemployment. Our paper contributes to the literature by developing a framework for introducing unemployment into analytical general equilibrium models of environmental policies. The previous literature contains studies of environmental tax incidence only in computational general equilibrium models (Hafstead and Williams 2018) or in analytical general equilibrium models under the assumption of full employment (Fullerton and Heutel 2007). Our model is a simple two-sector, two-factor incidence model, in the spirit of Harberger (1962), with the addition of involuntary unemployment through an efficiency wage as in Agell and Lundborg (1992) and Rapanos (2006), and with the addition of pollution as in Fullerton and Heutel (2007, 2010). The pollution is modeled as an input along with capital and labor in one of the sectors, which allows fully general forms of substitution among these three factors. Minimal restrictions are placed on our production function so that the model allows for analyses of a wide variety of policies. We solve the model to find closed-form analytic solutions for the general equilibrium responses to a change of pollution tax rate, including expressions for changes in factor prices, output prices, the amount of pollution, and overall unemployment as well as the employment shift between polluting and non-polluting sectors. The model allows us to clarify the impact of differential factor intensities, substitution effects, and output effects by looking at various special cases. Lastly, we conduct numerical simulations using calibrated parameter values.Environmental Policies That Shape Productivity: Evidence from Cattle Ranching in the Amazon
We examine potential economic benefits of environmental policies, increased agricultural investment and productivity. Two anti-deforestation policies in the Brazilian Amazon are analyzed: the Priority List, which increases the intensity of fines for deforestation, and the G4 Cattle Agreements, which is a market exclusion mechanism. We compare cattle ranchers』 optimal behavior under each policy and extract predictions about their impacts in order to determine which agricultural actors are affected and what the expected combined policy effects might be. A spatial database that covers land-use in Brazil from 2004 - 16 combined with a unique dataset of slaughterhouse locations provide sample comparability since we restrict our analysis to municipalities that ever had an exporting slaughterhouse nearby. We use variations in time and exposure levels of the two policies and find that both increased productivity, while the G4 also increased investment. This research reveals both indirect and unexpected benefits of environmental regulation.Local Bank Lending Following a Natural Disaster
Local lending institutions are more important for victim-level and regional-scale economic redevelopment after a natural disaster than has been previously recognized. Gallagher and Hartley (2017) show that lending by banks after Hurricane Katrina differed based on whether the bank had a large (「local」 bank) or small share (「national」 bank) of its loans going to New Orleans in the years before Katrina. Overall, US banking deregulation has largely been viewed as favorable due to its role in reducing state-level business cycles (e.g. Morgan et al., 2004), improving bank financing to small firms (e.g. Cetorelli et al., 2006), and diversifying bank assets (e.g. Levine et al., 2016). Our study expands on Gallagher and Hartley (2017) and examines whether an increased regional lending share by nationally diversified banks at the time of a disaster leads to a less desirable social outcome: a reduction in total lending to economically distressed areas after a natural disaster. First, we develop a theoretical model to better understand how bank lending incentives differ between local and national banks following a natural disaster. Second we create a new, national database from 1980-present with county-level information on all major US floods, the level of local and national bank lending each year, and yearly economic regional outcomes. Third, we show that regions with a higher local bank lending share at the time of a disaster have higher post-disaster lending. We use a banking deregulation instrument to account for the possible endogeneity in the amount of lending by local banks at the time of a disaster (e.g. Morgan et al., 2004). The final step is to use the deregulation instrument to estimate how differing shares of local bank lending at the time of a natural disaster affect post-disaster household finance and regional economic recovery.4.4 Green New Deal: Labor Market Policies for Sustainability and Equity
Sustainable Shared-Prosperity Policy Index: How Nations Create a Sustainable, Prosperous, Equitable Economy
Brown develops and then estimates a set of national policies, including both market regulations and government programs, that support shared prosperity (reducing inequality), sustainability and reduced global suffering. This policy index, called the Sustainable Shared-prosperity Policy Index (SSPI), ranks OECD and G-20 countries according to their policies. The index aggregates three pillars of policies that 1) structure labor markets, taxes and financial system, 2) provide public goods and services, and 3) protect the environment (sustainability). Then the relationship between SSPI and social and economic outcomes is analyzed.
Labor Market Frictions and Adaptation to Climate Change
Park (with co-author Behrer) explores heat-related labor impacts to understand the role of adaptation in responding to climate change. Combining spatially disaggregated payroll data with daily weather data, we find that hot temperatures exert a causal negative impact on county-level payroll -- reducing payroll by several percentage points in a 2-degree hotter year -- with larger impacts in highly exposed industries such as construction and manufacturing. Using BLS and OSHA occupational health data, we also find that extreme heat increases the risk of worker injury and fatality substantially. Exploiting geographic variation in average heat exposure, we assess differences in implied adaptation investments across regions with varying incentives for long-run adaptation, and find that historically hotter climates appear to be better adapted to heat.
Legislatively Mandated Analysis on How to Support Workers and Improve Job Quality and Job Access - Including Workers and Good Jobs in Climate Policy - Lessons from California
Zabin presents research from a legislatively mandate analysis on how to support workers and improve job quality and job access in the implementation of California's comprehensive set of climate policies. These include recommendations on labor standards, just transition approaches, and workforce development strategies in the decarbonization of energy, transportation, manufacturing, water, waste, and agriculture and natural lands.
Just and Equitable Transition to a Clean Energy Future: Transformative Potential Exists, But So Do Challenges
This presentation explores the evolving definition of "just transition" from an exclusive focus on justice for workers in dirty, dangerous and extractive industries, to a shared demand for justice for these workers as well as communities who are dependent on these dirty and extractive industries for their local economy and tax base, and communities who bear disproportionate environmental and health burdens because of extractive industries. This expansion of the vision for a just transition introduces possibilities for tension and conflict, and the presentation will provide some thoughts on how to move past these tensions to a productive conversation that rejects the false dichotomy of protecting the environment versus protecting jobs, and builds a pro-worker, pro-community vision of a future of healthy communities with good jobs. This vision also needs to consider that the very communities who face the worst environmental impacts often lack access to legacy (often unionized) extractive industry jobs with high pay. Moving beyond these overarching frameworks, the presentation will then outline specific policy tools (illustrated with case studies) to create good, family-supporting jobs in a clean energy transition while also ensuring that all communities, particularly communities most impacted, have access to the jobs created.4.5 Voluntarism and the Environment
Nudging Energy Conservation in Qatar: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments
We use combine data from a series of field experiments and a survey on perceptions about energy use to understand why and for whom nudges influence energy conservation amongst residential households in Doha, Qatar. Specifically we compare the effect of religious messages highlighting the importance of conservation with the effect of a message highlighting the importance of energy conservation as a national priority on subsequent patterns of monthly energy use for both Qatari nationals and non-nationals.
Every Day is Earth Day: Studying the Long Term Effects of April 22, 1970
This paper studies one of the largest voluntary events in human history: the original Earth Day. Contrary to prior studies, this paper finds large and long term local effects of earth day. We use weather on earth day as an exogenous source of variation. We propose a simple sufficient statistic for bounding the social benefits of a voluntary activity such as earth day which is subject to a continuously varying treatment, such as weather.
Local and Global Public Goods Games
Fighting climate change is a global public good that requires cooperation of individuals from different countries. Experiments show that cooperative behavior in social dilemma situations differs across countries. There is, however, little evidence on social dilemma situations in which individuals from different countries interact. To complement these findings, we conduct an experiment with participants from four countries crucial for the provision of global public goods: China, Germany, India and the US. Based on a standard public goods game our design varies across two dimensions. First, whether individuals participate in local group at the intra-national level, i.e., when other come from the same country, or in global groups at the inter-national level, i.e., when others come from different countries. Second, whether individuals have the chance to pledge their own non-binding contributions to the public good. Our results show substantial differences in participants』 cooperation behavior across countries. Furthermore, results from intranational comparisons cannot be simply extrapolated to international concerns. We also report that participants significantly deviate from their pledged contribution levels.Prosocial Promises in the Marketplace
4.6 Environmental Issues in MENA
Who Cares about Environmental Quality in the MENA Region?
This paper provides new evidence on the demand for environmental quality among youth in the MENA region. Using a unique micro dataset on five Arab Mediterranean Countries, we find that environmental quality demand is increasing with individual income. We also find that being male yields a lower likelihood of being environmentally concerned and that the male’s demand for environmental quality is more significantly determined by their income as compared to females. Moreover, being married significantly plays a role for the female youth only. Furthermore, environmental quality demand increases with the lack of confidence in the government. Overall, our results provide a few novel insights into the relationship between youth outlooks and characteristics and environmental concern in the MENA region.
How Do Different Disciplines Perceive the Environment? Survey Results from the Mediterranean and MENA
The results of the survey conducted in 2018-2019 on perceptions of climate change are tabulated and studied by geographical differences, gender and branch of sciences. Survey results, using a 5-point Likert scale, show differences on risk perceptions, affective images, values and policy preferences on global warming and the environment. Two factor analysis is used to statistically measure differences by variates among scientists.
Dust Storms, Migration and Housing Markets
This paper provides new empirical evidence on the economic impact of climate change. We investigate the effect of the recent increase in the number of dust storms and exposure to dust on the housing market and migration in Iran. Utilizing the individual level data of almost two million housing transactions in the Iranian housing market, census data on migration since 2000 and on-the-ground weather station data on exposure to dust and dust storms within last decades in the country, we present how individuals and families respond to the level of pollution caused by dust. We estimate the average marginal willingness to pay of individuals for better air quality and also demonstrate how the increase in the level of dust storms explains migration decisions. Our results show that an increase in the number of dust storm incidence is associated with a decrease in the city-level average of housing prices. Also, an increase in the level of dusty days is associated with a higher level of migration in affected rural areas. This research is among the first economic papers that investigates the issue of the environmental degradation on housing market and demographic change in the MENA region.Natural Hazards and Internal Migration: The Role of Transient Versus Permanent Shocks
We analyze internal migration triggered by natural disasters in Bangladesh. We conducted a survey in nine coastal districts and two major cities in Bangladesh to investigate whether floods and cyclones, which can be considered as transient shocks, affect interregional migration differently compared to riverbank erosion that causes loss of lands and thus generates shocks that are permanent in nature. Our findings suggest that transient shocks induce households to move to nearby cities while permanent shocks push people to big cities with more opportunities. Comparing the income and expenditure of migrants and non-migrant households, we find that the former group is better-off relative to their counterpart, indicating that welfare can be improved by facilitating migration. Rising exposure to climate change induced natural disasters around the world imply that our findings will be increasingly relevant for designing policies to address the vulnerability, particularly for disaster-prone countries with weak social safety nets.