Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale
瑞典已經成為世界的「醒世寓言」
Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns.
【cautionary】/ˈkɔːʃənəri/ adjective giving advice or a warning 勸告的；告誡的；警告的
【yield】/jiːld/ verb1 [transitive] ~ sth to produce or provide sth, for example a profit, result or crop 出產（作物）；產生（收益、效益等）；提供
【spare from】[usually passive] ~ sb/sth (from sth) (formal) to allow sb/sth to escape harm, damage or death, especially when others do not escape it 饒恕；赦免；放過；使逃脫~ sb/sth (from sth)
【a red flag】/ˌred flæɡ/ 1a flag used to warn people of danger 示警紅
【lift】/lɪft/ [transitive] ~ sth to remove or end restrictions 解除，撤銷，停止（限制）
面對新冠全球肆虐，瑞典繼續生產生活的決定已經招致了死亡案例的激增，也未讓本國經濟免受其害。在英美要解除封鎖之際，這是一個警示。
Sweden largely avoided imposing prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open.Credit...Johan Nilsson/EPA, via Shutterstock
【largely】/ˈlɑːdʒli / adverb to a great extent; mostly or mainly 在很大程度上；多半；主要地
【impose】BrE /ɪmˈpəʊz/ verb [transitive] ~ sth (on/upon sth/sb) to introduce a new law, rule, tax, etc.; to order that a rule, punishment, etc. be used 推行，採用（規章制度）；強制實行
瑞典避免了大規模地施加禁止令。政府允許餐館、健身房、商店、運動場和大多數學校繼續營業。Johan Nilsson/EPA, Shutterstock網站
LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.
【conduct】BrE /kənˈdʌkt/ [transitive] ~ sth (formal) to organize and/or do a particular activity 組織；安排；實施；執行
【unorthodox】 /ʌnˈɔːθədɒks/ adjective different from what is usual or accepted 非正統的；非傳統的；不正規的unorthodox methods非正統的方法 OPP orthodox ,compare heterodox
【open-air】/ˌəʊpən ˈeə(r)/ adjective [only before noun] happening or existing outside rather than inside a building 戶外的；露天的
【unhindered】/ʌnˈhɪndəd/ adjective without anything stopping or preventing the progress of sb/sth 不受阻擋的；沒有障礙的；暢通無阻的
倫敦——自從新冠病毒在歐洲出現，瑞典以執行一項打破傳統的戶外試驗而引發全球矚目。它讓世界來共同審視：在全球大流行病的疫情中，當一個政府允許人們生活繼續，基本不受限制時，會發生什麼？
This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.
【fare】/feə(r)/ [intransitive] ~ well, badly, better, etc. to be successful/unsuccessful in a particular situation 成功（或不成功、更好等） SYN get on
這就是已經發生的：瑞典死於新冠的人數不僅比施加封鎖的鄰國多出數千人，其經濟也沒好到哪裡去。
「They literally gained nothing,」 said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. 「It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.」
【literally】/ˈlɪtərəli/ used to emphasize the truth of sth that may seem surprising （強調事實可能令人驚訝）真正地，確實地
【self-inflicted】/self ɪnˈflɪktɪd/ adjective a self-inflicted injury, problem, etc. is one that you cause for yourself 自己造成的；加於自身的
「他們真的是一無所獲，」華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員雅各布f柯克加德(Jacob F. Kirkegaard)說。「這是自我施加的傷害，他們沒有任何經濟收益。」
The results of Sweden’s experience are relevant well beyond Scandinavian shores. In the United States, where the virus is spreading with alarming speed, many states have — at President Trump’s urging — avoided lockdowns or lifted them prematurely on the assumption that this would foster economic revival, allowing people to return to workplaces, shops and restaurants.
【Scandinavian】BrE /ˌskændɪˈneɪviə/ NAmE /ˌskændɪˈneɪviə/ noun [uncountable] a cultural region in NW Europe consisting of Norway, Sweden and Denmark and sometimes also Iceland, Finland and the Faroe Islands 斯堪地那維亞（歐洲西北部文化區，包括挪威、瑞典和丹麥，有時也包括冰島、芬蘭和法羅群島）
【prematurely】/ˈpremətʃə(r)/ happening before the normal or expected time 未成熟的；過早的；提前的
【foster】/ˈfɒstə(r)/ verb1 [transitive] ~ sth to encourage sth to develop 促進；助長；培養；鼓勵 SYN encourage, promote
【revival】/rɪˈvaɪvl/ [uncountable, countable] an improvement in the condition or strength of sth （狀況或力量的）進步，振興，復甦
瑞典遭遇的影響遠遠超出了斯堪地那維亞海岸。在病毒以驚人速度傳播的美國，許多州在川普總統的敦促下避免了封鎖或提前解除封鎖，他們認為這將促進經濟復甦，讓人們重返工作場所、商店和餐館。
In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson — previously hospitalized with Covid-19 — reopened pubs and restaurants last weekend in a bid to restore normal economic life.
在英國，之前因感染新冠肺炎住院的首相鮑裡斯·詹森上周末重新開放了酒吧和餐館，以恢復正常的經濟生活。
Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden’s grim result — more death, and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.
【implicit】/ɪmˈplɪsɪt/ ~ (in sth) suggested without being directly expressed 含蓄的；不直接言明的
【imperative】 (formal) a thing that is very important and needs immediate attention or action 重要緊急的事；必要的事
【roll back】to reduce prices, etc. 降低，削減（價格等）
【justify】/ˈdʒʌstɪfaɪ/ to show that sb/sth is right or reasonable 證明…正確（或正當、有理）~ (sb/sth) doing sth
【boost】/buːst/ ~ sth to make sth increase, or become better or more successful 使增長；使興旺
上面的措施意味著這樣的假設：政府必須在拯救生命和保住工作的重要性之間取得平衡，而減少社交距離所帶來的風險，可以會因促進了經濟繁榮的結果而被認為是無可非議的。但瑞典嚴峻的後果——死亡人數增加以及幾乎同等的經濟損失——表明，在生命和薪水之間做出的選擇是錯誤的:控制社交距離的失敗，可能會同時搭上生命和工作的代價！
Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open. By contrast, Denmark and Norway opted for strict quarantines, banning large groups and locking down shops and restaurants.
【put stock in】(especially NAmE) to have a particular amount of belief in sth （在某種程度上）相信，信任
【sensibility】/ˌsensəˈbɪləti/ the ability to experience and understand deep feelings, especially in art and literature （尤指文藝方面的）感受能力，鑑賞力，敏感性
當避免大規模地施加政府禁令時，瑞典相信其民眾的理解能力。政府允許餐館，健身房，商場，運動場以及大多數學校保持開放，與之對比的是，丹麥，挪威選擇嚴格的隔離措施，禁止大規模集群以及封鎖商場和餐館。
More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
【blame for】to think or say that sb/sth is responsible for sth bad 把…歸咎於；責怪；指責
【horrendous】/hɒˈrendəs/ extremely shocking 令人震驚的；駭人的 SYN horrific, horrifying
三個多月後，根據世衛組織的數據，新冠肺炎已導致瑞典有5,420人死亡。與死亡的12.9萬多人的美國相比，這聽起來可能並不是特別可怕。但瑞典是一個只有1000萬人口的國家，每百萬人中，瑞典的死亡人數比美國多40%，比挪威多12倍，比芬蘭多7倍，比丹麥多6倍。
Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more coronavirus-related deaths than the United States. Credit...Jonathan Nackstrand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
瑞典每百萬人中與新冠肺炎相關的死亡人數比美國多40%。Jonathan Nackstrand/法新社- Getty Images
The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden’s approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors.
【elevated】/ˈelɪveɪtɪd/ specialist) higher than normal 偏高的
【unimpeded】/ˌʌnɪmˈpiːdɪd/ (formal) with nothing blocking or stopping sb/sth 無障礙的；無阻擋的
【diminish】/dɪˈmɪnɪʃ/ verb [intransitive, transitive] ~ (sth) to become or to make sth become smaller, weaker, etc. 減少；（使）減弱，縮減；降低 SYN decrease
【magnitude】/ˈmæɡnɪtjuːd/ [uncountable] (formal) the great size or importance of sth; the degree to which sth is large or important 巨大；重大；重要性
因瑞典採取的應對措施而導致死亡人數偏高，在過去幾周內愈發明顯。現在才顯現出來的是，儘管瑞典讓其經濟如何暢通無阻地運行，但其仍然遭受著商業被破壞以及繁榮逐步縮減的損害，其損害程度與鄰國幾近相同。
Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. The unemployment rate jumped to 9 percent in May from 7.1 percent in March. 「The overall damage to the economy means the recovery will be protracted, with unemployment remaining elevated,」 Oxford Economics concluded in a recent research note.
【gain】/ɡeɪn/ increase 增加 1 [countable, uncountable] an increase in the amount of sth, especially in wealth or weight （尤指財富、重量的）增值，增加
【protracted】/prəˈtræktɪd/ , also /proʊˈtræktɪd/ adjective (formal) lasting longer than expected or longer than usual 延長的；拖延的；持久的 SYN prolonged
瑞典央行預計，該國經濟今年將萎縮4.5%，此前預估為增長1.3%。失業率從3月份的7.1%躍升至5月份的9%。牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)在最近的一份研究報告中總結道:「經濟受到的整體損害意味著復甦將曠日持久，失業率仍將居高不下。」
This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1 percent this year, and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6 percent in May from 4.1 percent in March.
【play out】when an event is played out, it happens 發生；出現 SYN enact
【edge up】to increase or decrease slightly 略為增加（或減少）
這幾乎就是疫情對丹麥造成的損害。丹麥央行預計，該國經濟今年將萎縮4.1%，失業率也從3月的4.1%微升至5月的5.6%。
In short, Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains.
簡而言之，瑞典的死亡率要高得多，但卻沒有獲得預期的經濟收益。
The coronavirus does not stop at national borders. Despite the government’s decision to allow the domestic economy to roll on, Swedish businesses are stuck with the same conditions that produced recession everywhere else. And Swedish people responded to the fear of the virus by limiting their shopping — not enough to prevent elevated deaths, but enough to produce a decline in business activity.
【roll on】滾滾向前；繼續前進：
【be stuck with】unable to get rid of sb/sth that you do not want 擺脫不了；甩不掉
新冠病毒不因國界而停止。儘管瑞典政府決定允許本國經濟持續運轉，但瑞典商業仍與其他國家一樣陷入了衰退。瑞典人通過限制購物來應對對病毒的恐慌——這不足以阻止死亡人數上升，但足以導致商業活動下降。
Here is one takeaway with potentially universal import: It is simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself. From Asia to Europe to the Americas, the risks of the pandemic have disrupted businesses while prompting people to avoid shopping malls and restaurants, regardless of official policy.
【takeaway】/ˈteɪkəweɪ/ A key fact, point, or idea to be remembered, typically one emerging from a discussion or meeting.要記住的關鍵事實、要點或想法，尤指從討論或會議中湧現出來的。
【import】 /ɪmˈpɔːt/ the ~ (of sth) [singular] (formal) the meaning of sth, especially when it is not immediately clear 意思；含意
【simplistic】/sɪmˈplɪstɪk/ adjective (disapproving) making a problem, situation, etc. seem less difficult or complicated than it really is （把問題、局面等）過分簡單化的
【culprit】/ˈkʌlprɪt/ a person or thing responsible for causing a problem 肇事者；引起問題的事物
這裡有一個可能具有普世意義的要點:把防疫等政府行為描述為造成經濟損失的原因，是過於簡單化的。真正的罪魁禍首是病毒本身，從亞洲到歐洲再到美洲，新冠肺炎大流行的風險迫使人們不顧官方的政策，不去購物和餐館，從而破壞了商業。
Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. Credit...Jonathan Nackstrand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
瑞典央行預計，該國今年經濟的預期修正為將萎縮4.5%，此前預估為增長1.3%。信用…Jonathan Nackstrand/法新社- Getty Images
Sweden is exposed to the vagaries of global trade. Once the pandemic was unleashed, it was certain to suffer the economic consequences, said Mr. Kirkegaard, the economist.「The Swedish manufacturing sector shut down when everyone else shut down because of the supply chain situation,」 he said. 「This was entirely predictable.」
【expose to】 /ɪkˈspəʊz/ ~ sb/sth/yourself (to sth) to put sb/sth in a place or situation where they are not protected from sth harmful or unpleasant 使面臨，使遭受（危險或不快）
【vagary】/ˈveɪɡəriz/ NAmE /ˈveɪɡəriz/ noun [plural] (formal) changes in sb/sth that are difficult to predict or control 奇思遐想；遊移不定；變幻莫測
【unleash】/ʌnˈliːʃ/ NAmE /ʌnˈliːʃ/ verb~ sth (on/upon sb/sth) to suddenly let a strong force, emotion, etc. be felt or have an effect 發洩；突然釋放；使爆發
瑞典易被全球貿易的變幻莫測所影響。經濟學家柯克加德表示，一旦新冠疫情大爆發，瑞典必然會遭受經濟後果。他表示:「由於供應鏈的情況，當其他所有企業都關閉時，瑞典製造業也該關門了。」「這完全是在意料之中的。」
What remained in the government’s sphere of influence was how many people would die.
仍在瑞典政府影響範圍內的是：將有多少人死亡。
「There is just no questioning and no willingness from the Swedish government to really change tack, until it’s too late,」 Mr. Kirkegaard said. 「Which is astonishing, given that it’s been clear for quite some time that the economic gains that they claim to have gotten from this are just nonexistent.」
【tack】/tæk/ [uncountable, singular] the way in which you deal with a particular situation; the direction of your words or thoughts 方針；方法；思路
「瑞典政府沒有任何懷疑，也不願意真正改變策略，直到為時已晚，」柯克加德說。「這令人震驚，因為在相當長的一段時間，很明顯，他們聲稱從中獲得的經濟收益實際上並不存在。」
Norway, on the other hand, was not only quick to impose an aggressive lockdown, but early to relax it as the virus slowed, and as the government ramped up testing. It is now expected to see a more rapid economic turnaround. Norway’s central bank predicts that its mainland economy — excluding the turbulent oil and gas sector — will contract by 3.9 percent this year. That amounts to a marked improvement over the 5.5 percent decline expected in the midst of the lockdown.
【ramp up】to make sth increase in amount 使…的數量增加
【turnaround】/ˈtɜːnəraʊnd/ a situation in which sth changes from bad to good 好轉；起色；轉機
【turbulent】/ˈtɜːbjələnt/ adjective [usually before noun] in which there is a lot of sudden change, confusion, disagreement and sometimes violence 動蕩的；動亂的；騷動的；混亂的
【in the midst of】in the midst of sth/of doing sthwhile sth is happening or being done; while you are doing sth 當某事發生時；在某人做某事時
另一方面，挪威不僅迅速實施了積極的封鎖，而且在新冠病毒減緩以及政府加大檢測力度的情況下提早放鬆了封鎖。現在預計經濟會更快好轉。挪威中央銀行預測，不包括動蕩的石油和天然氣行業，挪威本土經濟今年將收縮3.9%。這比封鎖期間預計的5.5%的降幅有了明顯改善。
Sweden’s laissez faire approach does appear to have minimized the economic damage compared with its neighbors in the first three months of the year, according to an assessment by the International Monetary Fund. But that effect has worn off as the force of the pandemic has swept through the global economy, and as Swedish consumers have voluntarily curbed their shopping anyway.
【laissez faire】/leseɪ ˈfeə(r)/ [uncountable] (from French) the policy of allowing private businesses to develop without government control （政府對私有企業的）自由放任政策
國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的一項評估顯示，與鄰國相比，瑞典的自由放任政策似乎將今年頭三個月的經濟損失降到了最低程度。但隨著疫情席捲全球經濟，以及瑞典消費者主動限制購物，該政策的作用已經在消退。
Researchers at the University of Copenhagen gained access to credit data from Danske Bank, one of the largest in Scandinavia. They studied spending patterns from mid-March, when Denmark put the clamps on the economy, to early April. The pandemic prompted Danes to reduce their spending 29 percent in that period, the study concluded. During the same weeks, consumers in Sweden — where freedom reigned — reduced their spending 25 percent.
【clamp on】ˈclamp sth on sb(「especially」 NAmE) to force sb to accept sth such as a restriction or law 強制…接受（限制或法律等）
【prompt】/prɒmpt/ [transitive] to make sb decide to do sth; to cause sth to happen 促使；導致；激起 SYN provoke
【reign】 /reɪn/ VERB 動詞稱王;支配;主宰 If you say that a person reigns in a situation or area, you mean that they are very powerful or successful.
哥本哈根大學的研究人員從丹麥銀行獲得了信貸數據，丹麥銀行是斯堪地那維亞最大的銀行之一。他們研究了從3月中旬丹麥經濟收緊到4月初的支出模式。該研究得出結論，新冠疫情促使丹麥人在這一時期減少了29%的開支。在同一周裡，自由支配的瑞典消費者減少了25%的開支
Strikingly, older people — those over 70 — reduced their spending more in Sweden than in Denmark, perhaps concerned that the business-as-usual circumstances made going out especially risky.
【strikingly】/ˈstraɪkɪŋ/ interesting and unusual enough to attract attention 引人注目的；異乎尋常的；顯著的 SYN marked
令人注意的是，瑞典的老年人——那些70歲以上的人——比丹麥人減少了更多的開支，可能是擔心在一切如常的情況下讓外出更加危險。
Collectively, Scandinavian consumers are expected to continue spending far more robustly than in the United States, said Thomas Harr, global head of research at Danske Bank, emphasizing those nations』 generous social safety nets, including national health care systems. Americans, by contrast, tend to rely on their jobs for health care, making them more cautious about their health and their spending during the pandemic, knowing that hospitalization can be a gateway to financial calamity.
【collective】used to refer to all members of a group 全體成員的；總體的。Collectively adv
【calamity】/kəˈlæməti/ an event that causes great damage to people's lives, property, etc. 災難；災禍 SYN disaster
丹麥銀行(Danske Bank)全球研究主管哈爾(Thomas Harr)表示，總體而言，斯堪地那維亞消費者的支出預計將繼續比美國強勁得多。他強調，北歐國家擁有充足的社會保障網絡，包括國家醫療體系。相比之下，美國人往往依靠工作來獲得醫療保險，這使得他們在疫情期間對自己的健康和支出更加謹慎，因為他們知道住院治療可能會導致財務災難。
「It’s very much about the welfare state,」 Mr. Harr said of Scandinavian countries. 「You’re not as concerned about catching the virus, because you know that, if you do, the state is paying for health care.」
「這在很大程度上與福利國家有關，」哈爾在談到斯堪地那維亞國家時說。「你不必擔心感染病毒，因為你知道，如果感染了，國家就會支付醫療費用。」
本文選自New York Times By Peter S. Goodman July 7, 2020 Updated 12:06 p.m. ET
以上所有圖片、視頻源自網絡，侵刪。
以上詞彙解析來自
《21世紀大英漢詞典》
《牛津高階英漢雙解詞典第九版》
《柯林斯高階英漢雙解詞典》
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