Glossary
influenza: 流感
fatality:致死率
scramble to do sth:努力做某事
equate to:相當於...
global health emergency：全球衛生緊急狀態
mild case: 輕症
in line with: 同...一樣
host: 宿主；主任
Black Death: 黑死病
ravage: 席捲
strain: 毒株
An effective virus can spread by not being too virulent like influenza and/or sustaining a long incubation period like HIV.
高傳染性的病毒可以通過降低自身致命性（比如流感病毒），以及/或者維持較長的潛伏期（比如愛滋病病毒）來擴大傳播範圍。
The coronavirus is now responsible for 304 deaths in China. It has a lower fatality rate than SARS, but that also makes it potentially more likely to spread.
目前，新型冠狀病毒在中國已造成304人死亡。雖然該病毒致死率低於非典，但這也使得它進一步擴散的可能性增大。
Two months into the epidemic, the coronavirus has not proven to be as deadly as the SARS virus. That, however, may also help explain why it's spreading so quickly. It has an incubation period of up to two weeks, which enables the virus to spread through person-to-person contact.
自疫情爆發的兩個月以來，已有研究證明新型冠狀病毒並不會像非典一樣致命。然而也許正因如此，這恰好解釋了為何這種病毒的傳播速度能夠如此之快。該病毒的潛伏期長達兩周，這也使得它有機會通過人與人之間的接觸來傳播。
The coronavirus, a highly contagious, pneumonia-causing illness that infects the respiratory tract, was responsible for 304 deaths in China, with 45 new deaths reported in the previous 24-hour period, and 14,380 infections worldwide, according to the latest figures released by China's National Health Commission on Sunday (Saturday EST).
新型冠狀病毒傳染性極強，能夠引發肺炎從而導致呼吸道感染。根據中國國家衛生委員會周日（小編註：2020年2月1日）（美國東部時間周六）發布的最新數據，該病毒在中國已造成304人死亡（截至發稿前24小時，又新增45例死亡病例），全球範圍內共14380人感染。
SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, infected 8,096 people worldwide with approximately 774 official SARS-related deaths; most of those infections occurred during a nine-month period from 2002 to 2003. Even with 43 new fatalities reported over 24 hours, the fatality rate remains steady.
非典，又稱重症急性呼吸綜合症，全球範圍內共8096人感染，官方累計死亡病例約774人，絕大多數的患者是在2002至2003年內的九個月之間被確診的。儘管當時24小時內新增了43例死亡病例，非典的致死率依然保持穩定。
▽北京小湯山，抗擊非典的一線陣地
SARS had a fatality rate of 9.6% compared to the fatality rate of 2.1% for this new 2019-nCoV strain of coronavirus, which has remained steady for the last several weeks. However, that death toll could rise as the weeks progress, and drug companies scramble to come up with a vaccine for the virus. Whether the fatality rate remains steady has yet to be determined.
較之非典9.6%的致死率，新型冠狀病毒的致死率在過去幾周內一直維持在2.1%。然而，死亡人數很有可能隨著時間的推移而持續上升，醫藥公司也正在努力研發針對該病毒的疫苗。其致死率能否保持穩定，目前尚無定論。
▽2003年非典時期的醫護工作者
▽2020年抗擊新型冠狀病毒的醫護工作者
Assuming an incubation period of up to 14 days, with an average of 7 days, before a person presents with symptoms of the virus and succumbs to the illness within the first week of diagnosis, the current fatality rate may yet underestimate the eventual rate. The current fatality rate of 259 based on the total number of cases reported four days ago (4,600) equates to a fatality rate of closer to 5.6%.
假設該病毒的潛伏期最長可達14天（平均7天），在患者出現任何症狀以前或是在確診的第一周後就去世之前，當前的致死率可能會高於真正的結果。根據4天前的案例報告可知，在4600例確診的患者當中死亡人數共259人，因此目前該病毒的致死率在5.6%左右。
▽疫情蔓延，普通醫院資源緊張，武漢已建起13座方艙醫院集中收治輕症患者。
If, on the other hand, the number of infections is as vastly underestimated, even more so than the fatality rate, that 2.1% coronavirus fatality rate could fall, which would be good news for those who have contracted the illness. (The World Health Organization has declared a global health emergency.)
另一方面，哪怕新型冠狀病毒的致死率存在被低估的現象，但如果感染人數同樣被大幅度低估，那麼實際的致死率則可能低於2.1%。這對已經感染的患者而言並非壞消息。（目前，世界衛生組織已宣布進入全球衛生緊急狀態。）
Maciej Boni, an associate professor of biology, at Pennsylvania State University, said the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic initially overestimated the final fatality rate, while the SARS fatality rate rose as the virus spread.
賓夕法尼亞州立大學的生物學副教授馬切伊·博尼（Maciej Boni）表示，人們一開始其實是高估了2009年甲型H1N1流感的最終致死率，雖然非典的實際致死率的確是隨著病毒的擴散而上升。
Boni wrote on the online science magazine LiveScience, 「During the 2009 influenza pandemic, the earliest reports listed 59 deaths from approximately 850 suspected cases, which suggested an extremely high case fatality of 7%. However, the initially reported information of 850 cases was a gross underestimate. This was simply due to a much larger number of mild cases that did not report to any health system and were not counted.」
博尼在在線科學雜誌《LiveScience》中寫道：「2009年流感爆發期間，最早的報告中顯示共59人死亡，約850例疑似感染病例，這意味著這場流感的致死率高達7%。然而事實上，疑似感染的病例遠不止初期報告中的850例這麼點，這單純是因為有很多症狀較輕的患者根本沒有上報任何衛生系統，他們因此也就未被歸為疑似病例。」
「After several months — when pandemic data had been collected from many countries experiencing an epidemic wave — the 2009 influenza turned out to be much milder than was thought in the initial weeks. Its case fatality was lower than 0.1% and in line with other known human influenza viruses,」 he added.
他還補充道：「幾個月後——就在拿到了許多經歷了那次流感的國家的流行病學數據之後，事實證明，2009年的那場流感實際上要比最初預期的溫和得多。和其他人類已知的流感病毒一樣，該病確診案例的死亡率遠低於0.1%。」
But even that fatality rate is smaller than the SARS fatality rate. The difference in these two fatality rates gives more context as to why the coronavirus has spread so quickly. Medical experts say an effective flu-like virus can extend its reach by not killing its host too rapidly and/or making the host sick enough to pass it on before finally becoming bedridden.
然而，即使新型冠狀病毒的致死率要低於非典，兩者在致死率上的差異仍舊能夠為新型冠狀病毒為何能夠傳播地如此之快而提供更多線索。醫學專家表示，高傳染性的流感類病毒可以通過緩慢地殺死它的宿主，以及/或者使其宿主出現傳染性症狀來擴大傳染範圍。
「Every now and then a disease becomes so dangerous that it kills the host,」 Matan Shelomi, an entomologist and assistant professor at National Taiwan University, wrote on Quora in 2017. But, ideally for the host at least, it must strike a balance.
2017年國立臺灣大學昆蟲學家兼助理教授馬坦·謝洛米（Matan Shelomi）在美版知乎（Quora）上寫道：「一種疾病常常會變得十分致命以至於殺死它的宿主。」但是，在理想狀態下它一定會謀求某種平衡，至少不會輕易殺死宿主。
「If the disease is able to spread to another host before the first host dies, then it is not too lethal to exist. Evolution cannot make it less lethal so long as it can still spread,」 he added. 「If a hypothetical disease eradicates its only host, both will indeed go extinct.」
「如果這種疾病能夠在第一個宿主死亡前傳播到另一個宿主身上，那麼它的致命性將會一直存在。只要它還可以繼續傳播，在進化的過程中它的致命性就不會減弱。」馬坦補充道，「假設有種病毒殺死了它唯一的宿主，那麼這種病毒和它的宿主都將走向滅亡。」
That, he said, is why the Black Death, which ravaged much of Europe and Asia in the Middle Ages is now extinct. 「The strain of the Black Death plague (Yersinia pestis) from the 14th Century was too virulent and is now extinct,」 with only modern, less devastating strains in existence.
他還表示，這也正是黑死病能夠在中世紀席捲歐亞大陸上的許多國家而如今卻已經絕跡的原因。「14世紀的黑死病毒株（鼠疫桿菌）毒性太強，而現在它們卻已經滅絕了。」現在只有那些破壞性較小的毒株存活了下來。
▽中世紀席捲歐洲的黑死病奪走了當時歐洲約三分之一人口的生命。
So will the latest coronavirus outbreak be more similar to the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak or the 2009 H1N1 influence pandemic? Boni wrote on LiveScience: 「I am a professor of biology who studies the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease, and in my view, in late January 2020, we do not yet have enough solid evidence to answer this question.」
那麼，最近爆發的這場由新型冠狀病毒引起的疫情會像2002至2003年爆發的非典，或是2009年爆發的甲型H1N1流感一樣嗎？博尼曾在《LiveScience》中寫道：「我是一名研究傳染病演變和流行病學的生物學教授，在我看來，截至2020年1月底，我們暫無確切的證據來回答這一問題。」
By Quentin Fottrell
Published: MarketWatch.com, Feb 1, 2020 10:38 pm ET
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