IN CHINESE STOCKMARKET mythology, the rarest of beasts is the slow bull. The past couple of decades have brought two fast bulls: vertiginous surges in share prices, neither lasting more than a year. Those soon led to fast bears when stocks crashed and, eventually, to slow bears as the descent became more gradual. Most of the time there have been what might be termed long worms as the market moved sideways, such that the CSI 300 index, a gauge of China’s biggest stocks, has averaged the same level over the past five years that it first reached back in 2007. The slow bull—a steady, almost dependable, rise year after year, well known to investors in America—has remained elusive.
在中國股市神話裡,「慢牛」是一種最罕見的神獸。過去幾十年裡曾經出現兩頭「快牛」：股價兩次飆升，但每次都沒能持續超過一年。緊接而來的便是股價狂跌的「快熊」；隨著股價下跌速度放緩，「慢熊」出現了。在很長一段時間裡，股市行情相當平緩，即所謂的「長線蟲」。比如，反映中國大盤股走勢的滬深300指數，過去五年裡整體持平，但這種水平2007年就已首次達到。美國股民熟悉的慢牛——年復一年的穩步增長，卻一直不見蹤影。
China’s indomitable punters now hope that a trundling taurus has at last arrived. Stocks have jumped by 16% so far in July and they are up by nearly 40% from their low in March. That might sound like another fast, doomed bull run. But some believe this one will be more enduring than those of the past.
堅毅的中國股民如今滿懷希望姍姍來遲的大金牛終於來了。7月以來，股市上漲了16%，相較於3月的低點上升近40%。乍看之下，似乎又是一個奔向災難的快牛行情。但有人認為，此次上漲和過去相比會更為持久。
For starters, China appears to be in much better economic shape than other large economies. Because investors must allocate their funds somewhere, there is always a comparative element to stockmarket performance. China is the only big economy forecast to grow this year, and is also expected to record the strongest rebound next year, according to projections published by the IMF at the end of June. There are grave concerns about the toll that the coronavirus might take in America during the flu season in the autumn. By contrast, China has shown every intention of smothering renewed outbreaks. That has given people and businesses greater certainty about the path ahead.
首先，和其他主要經濟體相比，中國的經濟態勢似乎要樂觀得多。投資者的錢總要有個去處，因此在投資時必定會對比股市的表現。根據國際基金組織6月底發布的預測，中國會是今年唯一出現經濟增長的主要經濟體，明年還將迎來史上最強勁反彈。新冠肺炎在今秋流感季對美國可能造成的死亡人數也讓人大為擔憂。相較之下，中國充分展示了阻止新一輪疫情暴發的巨大決心。因此，投資者、企業對於未來也有了更大的確定性。
Market dynamics also seem to be helping. Even after the rally, valuations in China are reasonable. The CSI 300 trades at 14 times the value of company earnings, far below the 27-times multiple of the S&P 500, America’s most-watched share index (see chart). Foreign investors have more ways to enter China’s previously walled-off market; many are compelled to do so, because its shares are now included in key indices tracked by institutions. During the first three trading days of July, 44bn yuan ($6bn) flowed into Chinese equities via accounts in Hong Kong, a record high for any three-day period.
其次，市場行情也呈利好態勢。即便是在經濟回彈後，中國股市的預期行情也相當可觀。如今，滬深300指數的交易價格僅為公司收益的14倍，遠低於美國最受關注的指標標普500的同一參數值的27倍。海外投資者有更多的方法進入一度封閉的中國股市；很多外國投資者不得不如此，因為中國股市納入了許多投資機構追蹤的關鍵指標。在7月前三個交易日裡，有440億人民幣（60億美元）通過香港帳戶湧入中國股市，創下三日投資新高。
Although more investors have started buying shares with borrowed money, the outstanding balance of such margin trading is just over half the peak it reached five years ago, during China’s most recent manic run. It is now easier for companies to list shares on the mainland, so new offerings should help absorb some of the cash rushing into the stock market. 「This lays the foundation for a slow-bull market that could last for ten or 20 years,」 says Chang Shishan of Kangzhuang, an asset-management firm.
儘管有更多投資者開始通過槓桿買入股票，但近期股市熱中融資融券交易的未清餘額也才達到5年前巔峰水平的一半。目前，企業在中國大陸上市的難度下降，新股發行可以吸收湧入股市的部分資金。「這就為後10年、甚至20年裡的慢牛行情打下了基礎。」康莊資產管理公司的常士杉說道。
Nevertheless, it is hard to shake the feeling that the optimists might once again be getting ahead of themselves. The outlook for profitability, which ultimately should determine share prices, is still grim. Over the first five months of 2020, industrial profits were down by 19% compared with a year earlier.
儘管如此，不可忽視的是樂觀情緒恐怕有些過頭。從根本上決定股價的盈利前景還尚不明朗。2020年前五個月的行業利潤較之於前年減少了19%。
Most worrying is the way that the Chinese media are swinging into cheerleading mode. If past episodes are anything to go by, this is one of the telltale signs of irrational exuberance. 「The clicking of the bull’s hooves is a beautiful sound for our post-virus era,」 declared a front-page editorial in the China Securities Journal, a state-run newspaper, on July 6th. The Shanghai Securities, its sister publication, was less poetic but more direct in an article that was posted online on July 3rd: 「Hahahahaha! It looks more and more like a bull market!」 Healthy bulls need only a diet of grass. Injecting them with steroids is an invitation to trouble.
最讓人擔憂的還是中國媒體搖旗吶喊。若以史為鑑，這正是過分樂觀的徵兆。「嗒嗒的牛蹄聲是疫情後的美麗召喚。」 7月6日，中國證券報的頭版社論如是寫道。7月3日，其姐妹刊物上海證券報也發布了網文，相較於前者沒那麼詩意卻更為直接：「哈哈哈哈哈！牛市特徵越來越明顯了！」健康的牛吃草便可，注射類固醇只會別生枝節，自找麻煩。
編譯：林卓瑋
編輯：翻吧君
來源：經濟學人（2020.07.11）
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