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由絲路智谷研究院院長梁海明、學術委員洪為民教授和洪雯教授合著的新書《新基建 新紅利 新機遇》於近日正式出版發行。本書從經濟角度對5G、人工智慧、工業網際網路、物聯網等「新型基礎設施建設」進行全面解讀，向社會展示科學正確的「新基建」意義和價值導向，同時對未來「新基建」帶來的行業新紅利和新機遇進行了一些預判，為打造集約高效、經濟適用、智能綠色、安全可靠的現代化基礎設施體系提供財經視野。
絲路智谷研究院首席顧問馮達旋對本書做出了高度評價，指出它「全面而簡潔地深入探討了與新基建相關的種種問題」。他認為，本書討論的是全球性的話題，同時作者們又立足於中國的情況，說明新基建會為人類所帶來的新機遇。馮達旋教授還指出，由梁海明院長所撰寫的後記體現了本書的精髓，為此他親自將後記翻譯成英文，以供更多的讀者可以對本書有進一步的了解。
馮達旋教授評論原文
Quite recently, my colleagues Haiming Liang, Witman Hung and WendyHong were gracious enough to send me a copy of their new book (inChinese) with the enticing title 「New Infrastructure, New Profit and NewOpportunity」 (《新基建 新紅利 新機遇》).
The basic theme of the book is to underscore how the so-called 「newinfrastructure,」 which is a collective nomenclature for all the current digitaltechnological advancements, such as 5G, could give rise to previouslyunexpected dividends and opportunities. There is no doubt anytechnological advancements humanity had initiated in the past, and this oneis not an exception, would be transformative in human-to-humaninteractions.
Although the discussion of the book is global in nature, there is no doubt thatthe authors have China in mind. More important, it will also provide newopportunities for humanity.
This is not a voluminous book, but it is comprehensive and concise indiscussing the issues in depth. I found in the Epilogue of the book, authoredby Haiming Liang, to be particularly poignant about the essence of the book,both intellectually and personally. I took the opportunity to translate it so asto bring the book to the attention to the global readers.
Secretly, I hope by doing so, I could bring the book to the attention of theglobal audience and generate sufficient interest that it would inspiresomeone to translate this book about a critical period of humanity’sdevelopment.
馮達旋|絲路智谷研究院 首席顧問
核子與核天文物理、量子光學與數學物理領域的專家，在美國和臺灣多間大學及企業服務超過30年，曾出任M. Russell Wehr講座物理教授、美國國家科學基金理論物理組主任、美國德州大學達拉斯分校研究副校長兼任物理系教授、美國五百強企業SAIC任副總裁、臺灣清華大學與成功大學資深副校長等職。
後記
Epilogue
I benefitted from the New Infrastructure
Haiming Liang
One of my intensive current research areas is the economics of science andtechnology. The primary reason why I am committed to this aspect ofeconomics is because through artificial intelligence (AI) and big data in theso-called 「new infrastructure」 era, there are profound and intertwinedconnections of finance and politics with this era. In fact, notable interestingand intriguing issues such as governance and the 「Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)」 related to this aspect of economics have already proven to beexceedingly beneficial for my research.
Let me illustrate with some examples. It is well known that by amassinglarge amount of data, hence the name big data, one could derive tantalizingresults for AI’s investigation of the financial world. It is through exploringthe interrelations and interconnectivities of big data, it would allow thecomputational machine to 「learn」, and from which to pin-point effectivefactors to assist humans to analyze the fluctuation of the financial market.Indeed, with this methodology, I as an economist was able to locate andsometime zero-in the two huge fluctuations in 2008 and 2020 of the globalfinancial markets.
What is particularly intriguing is that one finds the same vein in the 2008and 2020 global financial crisis trajectories. It is interesting, and probablynot coincidental, that the most notable and spectacular bankrupt stocks,namely General Motors in 2010 and Boeing in 2020, respectively, happenedto belong to major transportation stocks. Furthermore, in both of the globalfinancial crises in the 21st century, significant number of governments hadadopted identical strategy of "printing money," and investors had/havedumped stocks of a similar nature.
Ironically, it is worth noting that during this period, although European andAmerican stock markets fell precipitously, the Chinese stock marketsappeared to have the opposite effect. This is especially true for the liquorand other sectors. So naturally one would ask what would be the reason orreasons for such a reversal? What I have discovered through AI’s learning ofbig data is that the rise of the Chinese stocks is intimately connected tomarket sentiment. In fact, 70% of the Chinese stock market is dominated byindividuals, in which their investments are based on their experiences, ormore accurately, their emotions. Hence, for such individuals, there is thetendency of altering their investments sector often, even as often as weekly.
Given the above understanding, if one were able to a priori fullycomprehend the habit of the investors before allowing the deployment of themachine: namely to buy before individual investors buy and to sell before they sell, then undoubtedly with such a modus operandi, this could become ahighly profitable operation. In fact, this could be AI’s most interestingaspect. With such a machine, one not only can analyze the trend of thefinancial market, one can also amazingly makes predictions regarding theoutcome of events such as, say, the U.S. presidential election, the trend ofthe China-US trade dispute, etc.
For example, in analyzing the results of the presidential election, one is ableto develop a model which is based on big data, and then input variousvariables into the model, and add on to it various related historical events,and allowed the supercomputers to self-learn in order to locate what are theeffective indices to ascertain the success or failure percentage.
Of course, it is undeniable that one of the AI major challenges is what isknown as overfitting. Indeed, if the data available is insufficient for themachine to self-learn, and couple this with the fact that each time thelearning took place was embedded within a different environment, then oneshould expect the analyzed result will manifest significant deviation.
When there is deviation in the analysis, which generally is unavoidable, inorder to make progress, it will be necessary to add human wisdom andexperiences. To this end, it is especially important to inject the moreimportant interdisciplinary knowledge. After all, it is only natural that researchers involved in the project who has a profound understanding of thenature of big data may not have the same level of understanding of thenature of artificial intelligence. Likewise, those who possess understandingof artificial intelligence may not and most likely will not understandeconomics; those who understand economics, however, may not understandinternational relations and those who understand international relations maynot understand the nature of the election politics. Indeed, only if one couldseamlessly sow together the disparate knowledge of the researchers can oneexpect to carry out meaningful investigation and obtain intriguing results.
Thus, in order to carry out interesting and special research, the team we haveassembled have technical expertise of varied disciples. With such a team,not only we can mutually benefit from each other’s interactions, we couldalso achieve a greater level of success. For example, we were able to arriveat unique conclusions such as those regarding the challenges facing HongKong, and also those facing the 「Belt and Road Initiative」 as well asresearch regarding the Free Trade Port of Hainan province.
Indeed, as long as the researchers involved in any project can firmly graspthe new opportunities brought on by the new infrastructure era, one will befacing with unlimited possibilities and opportunities. With this as thefoundation, it is my earnest hope that within the foreseeable future, more andmore individuals can join and participate in this effort and becomebeneficiaries of the new infrastructure era.
梁海明 | 絲路智谷研究院院長
連續兩屆「一帶一路」國際合作高峰論壇參會專家代表，「文明之光·2016中國文化交流年度人物」獲得者，美國普林斯頓大學訪問學者，海南大學「一帶一路」研究院院長。
原標題：《#新書推介#梁海明、洪為民與洪雯合著新書《新基建 新紅利 新機遇》》
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