中國石化新聞網訊 據ICIS-MRC網站12月22日莫斯科報導，據烴加工網表示，由於航空貨運需求的反彈，全球航空燃料市場正在復甦，逐漸恢復客運量，並希望新冠疫苗能在2021年提振更多的國際航班。
新冠疫情使今年的航空旅行實際上停止了，據分析人士稱，全球對航空燃料的需求回到疫情前的水平可能需要數年時間。但由於寄希望於對2021年需求增加，12月所有主要貿易中心的燃料精煉利潤飆升至數月高位，其中美國和歐洲的利潤率受到航空貨運量回升的支撐，亞洲利潤率也受到國內旅行反彈和加熱消費的支撐。
自9月中旬以來，亞洲（全球最大的燃料市場）的航空燃料精煉利潤飆升了580％，出口價格飆升了45％，達到自3月以來的最高水平。 由於一些國家放寬了對新冠疫情的管制，國內航空旅行有所增加。
諮詢公司伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）駐新加坡的研究助理Qiaoling Chen表示:「我們預計2021年第一季度末將提供疫苗，一些旅行限制將繼續實施。」他預計明年第一季度亞洲航空燃油需求將達到140萬桶/天。該公司預計，今年第四季度該地區的航空燃料需求將達到130萬桶/天，較第二季度增加46萬桶/天，但較2019年同期減少41%。
根據Refinitiv的數據顯示，在美國，將原油提煉成餾分油(包括航空燃料)的利潤自9月中旬以來增加了約一倍，至每桶逾13美元，但仍比去年同期水平低約10美元。據挪威雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）高級分析師Artyom Tchen表示，美國航空燃料需求目前約為134萬桶/天，較1月份新冠疫情前水平下降了30%。國際航班佔全球航空燃料需求的60%以上。我們將看到需求復甦的前景，但這需要一段時間，尤其取決於來自美國的國際運輸量復甦的速度。儘管全球航空客運已從5月份的暴跌中復甦，但11月份定期航班數量仍較上年同期水平低45%左右。
然而，貨運業務的復甦更為迅速，由於電子商務的蓬勃發展，十月份的貨運量僅比去年同期下降了6％。 隨著航空公司準備在大規模疫苗推出中發揮關鍵作用，預計全球航空貨運需求將進一步增長。
郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下：
Jet fuel prices take flight as vaccine roll-outs spur hopes of more air travel
Global jet fuel markets are coming back to life, resuscitated by a rebound in air cargo demand, gradually recovering passenger traffic and hopes that COVID-19 vaccines will spur more international flights in 2021, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
The pandemic brought air travel to a virtual halt this year, and analysts say it may take years before global appetite for jet fuel returns to pre-pandemic levels. But refining profits for the fuel surged to multi-month highs in all key trading hubs in December on hopes of higher demand in 2021, with U.S. and European margins underpinned by a recovery in air cargo volumes and Asian margins also by a rebound in domestic travel and heating consumption.
Jet refining margins in Asia - the world’s top fuel market - have soared 580% and export prices by 45% since mid-September to their highest since March. Domestic air travel picked up as some countries eased coronavirus curbs.
"We expect vaccines will become available by (the) end of Q1 2021 and some travel restrictions will remain in place," said Qiaoling Chen, research associate at consultancy Wood Mackenzie in Singapore, forecasting Asian jet fuel demand at 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of next year. The consultancy expects appetite for jet fuel in the region to hit 1.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2020, up by 460,000 bpd from Q2, but still 41% below the same period in 2019.
In the United States, margins to refine crude into distillates, which includes jet fuel, have about doubled since mid-September to more than USD13 a barrel, but are still about $10 per barrel below year-ago levels, according to Refinitiv data. Artyom Tchen, senior analyst at Rystad Energy in Norway, said U.S. jet fuel demand is currently around 1.34 million bpd, 30% off pre-coronavirus levels in January. International flights account for over 60% of global appetite for jet fuel.
"We will see the demand recovery going forward, but it will take some time and is especially dependent on how quickly international traffic volumes from the U.S. recover,」 he said. While passenger air travel globally has recovered from its plunge to near total stoppage in May, the number of scheduled flights remained around 45% below year-ago levels in November.
Cargo traffic, however, has recovered far more briskly, and in October was only 6% below year-ago levels thanks to booming e-commerce. Global air cargo demand is expected to receive a further boost as airlines prepare to play a key role in mass vaccine roll-outs.