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本期嘉賓:Gina Pieters芝加哥大學教授區塊鏈「行業女王」
區塊鏈將推動金融服務升級數位化基礎設施
金融界:數字貨幣是區塊鏈技術早期的應用領域之一,您認為這種應用能夠很好地反映區塊鏈技術的特點嗎?區塊鏈技術將如何影響金融體系?
Gina C Pieters:相對於其他數據,區塊鏈的優勢在於不需要使用中心化的監管來驗證和為數據的真實性背書。數字貨幣作為區塊鏈的應用很好地體現了這一點。
區塊鏈會促使金融服務機構來重新評估現有的數位化基礎設施。即便他們還沒有採用區塊鏈,但任何實施的更新都會推動行業向前發展。具體而言,金融服務機構中存在許多用來驗證交易真實性的中介,而區塊鏈會降低這些金融中介存在的必要性。
數字貨幣交易抗風險能力有待提高
金融界:數字貨幣交易的有效監管一直是各國政府面對的共同問題,美國一些地區最近甚至頒布了對數字貨幣的禁令。在您看來,數字貨幣交易和傳統的支付手段相比,具有哪些優勢和風險?有必要實行嚴格的監管嗎?
Gina C Pieters:數字貨幣市場面對的風險和其他金融市場是相似的,不同的是數字貨幣的風險防範措施更少。在數字貨幣市場中,用於防範欺詐和身份冒用的政府監管同樣有益。基於區塊鏈的交易較為獨特的一點,在於記錄在區塊鏈上的數據不容易被調整或刪除(除非被損壞)。這意味著即使在出錯或者對結果不滿意時,交易也不可能被取消或者撤銷。政府監管在這方面無能為力。
數字身份與去中心化系統加大監管難度
金融界:區塊鏈的數字身份會給監管帶來難度嗎?區塊鏈時代的監管應該包含哪些必需因素?數字貨幣有許多特性,可在它變得易用的同時,也很容易被某些不良因素利用。我們應該如何防範這種情況的發生?
Gina C Pieters:區塊鏈本身不需要用戶在創建帳戶時提交真實身份。如果你在談論數據體系的現狀,那麼它的確使對犯罪活動的調查搜證變得更加困難了,因為缺乏可以追蹤或者把握的實體,同時跨越中介的能力意味著交易過程中包括的人更少,參與者也更加全球化。在缺乏全球協議的情況下,區塊鏈的全球化現實使它更難監管。
去中心化是使比特幣區別於早期電子貨幣的特徵,這意味著比特幣體系不存在監管主體。由於沒有中心化主體,政府就無法監管這個系統。一些數字貨幣更加中心化,會被政府監管——例如,政府會強制Facebook去驗證註冊Calibra錢包的用戶的身份。這些要求對比特幣是無效的。但是一些政府會對外匯強加限制,這是許多人即使在外匯不被嚴格限制的情況下也會選擇交易比特幣的原因。
穩定幣與自由浮動之選
金融界:您曾提到在數字貨幣的市場上,美元、日元和韓元佔有主要的地位。那麼比特幣的波動會對這三種貨幣產生巨大的影響嗎?如果人們未來使用數字貨幣,可能會以哪種主權貨幣作為基準?
Gina C Pieters:雖然以上三種貨幣在數字貨幣的交易中佔有很大的份額,但從整體來看,數字與這三個經濟體相關聯的交易並不多,因此不會對主權貨幣造成太大的衝擊。
如果未來的人們使用數字貨幣,我們不能確定這種貨幣的錨貨幣是什麼。我們可以創造盯住預設貨幣或資產的「穩定幣「,或者不依託於任何其他貨幣的自由浮動貨幣。穩定幣需要中心化的系統來維持它的聯繫,但使它有受政府監管的嫌疑;自由浮動的貨幣受政府影響較小,但波動性會更大。
對話實錄
JRJ:We understand that cryptocurrency is one of the earliest applications of block chain technology. Do you think this application perfectly reflects the characteristics of block chain technology? What other scenario applications of block chain technology do you think include? How will blockchain technology affect the financial industry? Is it possible that blockchain will reshape our financial service industry?When can we expect a large-scale application of blockchain technology in the financial industry?
Gina C Pieters:Relative to other data structures, blockchain's benefit is that there is no need for an authority to verify/approve data. Digital money is one obvious application of this.
Blockchain may spark many financial service firms to reevaluate their current digital infrastructure, and even though they don't adopt a blockchain any updates they implement will help the industry. More directly, there are several intermediaries in the financial service industry that exist to verify transactions: blockchain may reduce the need for such intermediaries.
JRJ:Effective regulation of cryptocurrency trading is a common problem for governments around the world, with some parts of the United States recently even calling for a ban on cryptocurrencies. In your opinion,what are the advantages and risks of cryptocurrency transactions compared with traditional payment methods?Is strict government regulation necessary?
Gina C Pieters:The risk is similar to other financial markets - except there are fewer established recourses if something goes wrong. Government regulation in cases of fraud or misrepresentation would be as helpful in cryptocurrency markets as they are in any other financial market. A unique aspect of blockchain-based transactions is that data recorded on a blockchain can usually not be modified or deleted (unless the blockchain has been compromised). This means that it is not feasible to cancel or undo a transaction if you make an error or are unsatisfied with the result. Government regulation cannot really help with this aspect.
JRJ:Does the digital identity of the Blockchain bring difficulties for regulation?What is the necessary elements regulation in Blockchain Era should include?Crypto money has many characteristics. It is easy to be used by undesirable elements at the same time as it becomes convenient. So how should we prevent such things from happening? What do people or government need to do?
Gina C Pieters:I don't know if understand question 4: A blockchain does not inherently require that users submit their "true" identity prior to establishing an account. If you were asking about the digital nature: The digital nature of blockchain does make it finding evidence of criminal activity harder as there is nothing physical to track or seize, and the ability to bypass intermediaries means that fewer individuals need to be involved in processing transactions. It also globalizes the location of participants. The international nature of blockchain makes it hard to regulate without a global agreement.
JRJ: You mentioned that the market is highly concentrated in just three currencies -Dollar, Won and Yen. So will the fluctuation of Bitcoin have a greater impact on these three currencies? If people start to use crypto money in the future, which currency will be based on?
Gina C Pieters:While those three currencies comprised a large share of the trades, the sie of the trade relative to the size of those three economies is small so it should not have a large impact.
If people use a cryptocurrency in the future it's not clear what currency it will be based on. On one hand, you have "stablecoins", which are pegged to pre-existing currencies or assets, or you could have a free-floating crypto that is not inherently based on any one currency. Stablecoins require a centralized system to maintain their peg, which makes them more susceptible to government regulations. Free-floating cryptos are less susceptible to government regulation but are also more volative.