原創 芮博瀾 中歐國際工商學院
經濟學家普遍認為，世界上的大多數國家都是經濟全球化的受益者。即使有個別國家認為自己沒有公平地享受到全球化的紅利，那也不應歸咎於全球化，而應歸咎於該國的收入分配和稅收政策。突如其來的新冠疫情對全球化進程帶來了重大挑戰，截至4月7日，全球新冠肺炎確診病例超過133萬例，累計死亡逾7.4萬例。但這無法逆轉全球化的歷史進程，事實上，此刻沒有哪個國家能獨善其身。只有推動全球在醫療、科技、財政等領域的合作，才能幫助大家度過眼前的艱難時刻。中歐國際工商學院經濟學教授芮博瀾（Bala Ramasamy）為《中國日報》（China Daily）撰寫了題為《國際合作是抗擊疫情的唯一辦法》（Unity is the only way to beat the pandemic）的文章，詳述了其中邏輯，本文是其雙語呈現。
Leaders from the G20 major economies showed it was possible to take special measures together to tackle the coronavirus pandemic by convening a video conference for the first time ever recently. Sitting in their respective meeting rooms in capitals all around the world, as they gathered with their aides around screens and monitors, statesmen must have had much to ponder as they exchanged views in such an isolated and peculiar manner. Could this disruption to normal communications be the springboard needed to get international economic co-operation and the world’s stalled globalisation project back on track?
不久前，二十國集團（G20）主要領導人史無前例地召開了一次視頻峰會。在會上，各國表示將聯合採取措施以對抗新冠疫情。政治家們待在位於各國首都的辦公室中，在屏幕與監視器前的助手們的幫助下，以一種既隔絕又特殊的方式交流觀點，他們的所思所想一定很多。這種非常規的溝通方式能否推動國際經濟合作，並讓陷入停滯的全球化重返正軌？
Globalisation has been in retreat since 2018, if global trade in goods is a reliable indicator. Trade volume grew by a mere 0.6 percent in 2018, and even lower at 0.3 percent in 2019. Economists and think tanks put this down to increasing trade tensions between the United States and China. For a brief moment, things were looking up in the last quarter of 2019 following the inking of a US-China phase-one trade agreement. The positivity, however, was short-lived. No one could have imagined that, soon afterward, a novel viral strain would lead to such devastation in the global economic environment. The world watched as China locked down its cities and ramped up its healthcare network — building hospitals in a matter of days — as it reported an exponential growth in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Little did the world realise that Act 2 of the same play would take place in other countries barely two months later. Today, country after country has implemented their own versions of lockdowns and closed their borders. Hotels, exhibition centres and stadiums are being turned into temporary health facilities. Global production is grinding to a halt as lockdowns take effect across the globe.
2018年以來，全球化持續呈現衰退趨勢。全球貨物貿易量的變化清楚表明了這一點：2018年，全球貨物貿易量僅增長了0.6%，2019年的增幅更低，只有0.3%。經濟學家和各國智囊團將原因歸為中美之間的貿易摩擦。2019年最後一個季度，中美兩國就貿易摩擦達成了第一階段協議。但是，這一積極態勢並沒有維持多久。沒有人能預料到，突如其來的一種新型冠狀病毒會給全球經濟環境帶來毀滅性打擊。在全球目光的注視下，面對呈指數級增長的確診病例和死亡病例，中國採取了封城措施，並迅速啟動了本國的衛生醫療應急系統（包括在幾天之內建成多家醫院）。其他國家很少有人意識到，同樣的劇情會在短短兩個月之後在自己的國家上演。目前，各國已陸續採取封城和邊境關閉等措施。酒店、展覽中心、體育館正在被改建成臨時醫院。隨著封閉措施被普遍採用，全球生產活動正逐漸陷入停滯。
A global recession is not only imminent, but we may already be experiencing one. Perhaps it was a blessing to the world that China — the factory of the world — is now beginning to come back to life, and is the only economy that is capable of meeting the pent-up global demand for essential supplies of necessities, including surgical masks, personal protective equipment and ventilators. Nevertheless, the current economic crisis will fluctuate between being a supply problem and a demand problem. As the supply chain in China roars back to life, demand from the rest of the world will be sluggish, particularly for nonessential products. It will take time for both demand and supply to recover in tandem. The V-shaped recovery predicted a month ago by some economists is fading.
全球性的經濟衰退即將來臨——或許已經來臨。有著「世界工廠」之稱的中國現已步入復甦階段，這對世界而言或許是個好消息，因為各國目前急需口罩、個人防護裝備、呼吸機等重要物資，中國是唯一有能力滿足這些需求的經濟體。但是，當前的經濟危機涉及到供需兩個方面。儘管中國的供應鏈正在恢復正常，但世界其他地區的需求——尤其是對非必需品的需求——仍無法擺脫疲軟的現狀。供需兩端都恢復正常尚需時日。某些經濟學家在一個月前預測，世界經濟將呈現V字形的復甦曲線。這一預測顯得過於樂觀了。
There is a general consensus among economists that globalisation has benefitted most if not all countries, and that a reversal in this process will have a negative impact on economic growth. Industrialised countries have actually gained more from globalisation because the income gap between developed and developing countries has increased in absolute terms between 1990 and 2016. The critique against globalisation, especially among politicians in Western industrialised countries, is that the benefits of globalisation have not been shared equitably among the population. This is not the fault of globalisation, but rather the income distribution and taxation policies of the countries concerned.
經濟學家普遍認為，即使不是所有國家，全球化也已惠及大部分國家，逆全球化將對經濟增長造成負面影響。工業化國家從全球化進程中獲益良多，因為按絕對值計算，1990-2016年，發展中國家和發達國家之間的收入差距有所擴大。全球化的批評者，尤其是西方工業化國家的政治人士則認為，世界各國並沒有公平地享受到全球化所帶來的紅利。但是，這不應歸咎於全球化，而應歸咎於相關國家的收入分配和稅收政策。
The irony is that the solution to the current darkness faced by the world today is greater globalisation. Many of the pressing problems faced by countries now, such as climate change or the current COVID-19 pandemic, require global solutions. National level attempts at addressing these issues will fail or, at best, only delay the impact. Nations must come together and work out the best approach at resolving these problems collectively. Scientists around the world have to share their ideas and resources to find a vaccine and a remedy to defeat this invisible enemy. Or at least, disease control experts and pharmaceutical companies must race to find a cure so that the healing of the world can happen.
事實上，只有推動全球化才能讓世界度過當前的至暗時刻。目前，各國都面臨很多亟待解決的問題，例如氣候變化、新冠疫情等，這需要全球性的解決方案來應對。只靠本國力量來應對這些問題終將以失敗而告終，最多只能延緩這些問題所產生的影響。各國必須齊心協力，共同研究出最有效的應對方案。全球各地的科學家必須分享自己的觀點和資源，通過研製疫苗和藥物來對抗新冠病毒這一人類看不見的敵人。至少，各國的疾病防控專家和製藥公司必須競相尋找治療方法，以讓全球疫情儘快得到控制。
On the economic front, a coordinated and synchronised global fiscal stimulus package is being called for by the International Monetary Fund — one that is similar to the actions taken to overcome the financial crisis of 2008-09, but at a scale several times larger. There is sufficient experience from various crises in the past that when the international community acts together in a coordinated way, confidence re-emerges and growth follows. No single country will be able to overcome its economic woes alone. Perhaps we should look at the world as one country and humankind its citizens.
在經濟領域，國際貨幣基金組織號召世界各國以協調一致的方式採取財政刺激一攬子計劃。該計劃與2008-2009年金融危機期間所採取的措施相似，但規模數倍於後者。以往有很多這樣的例子：在面臨各種各樣的危機時，隨著國際社會協調採取措施，民眾重拾信心，經濟恢復增長。沒有哪個國家能夠單打獨鬥地解決本國經濟問題。或許，我們應該把整個世界看成一個國家，把人類都看成這個國家的公民。
For this to happen, global leadership is necessary. But, alas, there has been a vacuum in such leadership in recent years. Nationalism and populism have been used to usurp power for self-aggrandizement. The respect accorded to such narrow-minded leaders is diminishing. Others, whether from the developing world or from smaller nations, will have to step up to fill this vacuum. No doubt, the nation is any leader’s top priority, but 「beggar thy neighbour」 policies have never resulted in any good for anyone. Rallying the whole world together to fight a common enemy seems to be the only path to victory. And once on the other side, there will be a deeper appreciation of the power of unity. Nature is perhaps trying to teach us an important lesson. Globalisation is a natural phenomenon, and like the virus that is impervious to borders, nationality, creed and class, so too should we overcome such barriers and realise the strength in interdependence. The future of the world depends on it.
為此，各國必須展現全球領導力。近年來，國際社會存在領導力真空。民族主義和民粹主義被用作攫取權力、自我擴張的工具。思想狹隘的領導人將越來越得不到尊重。其他國家，包括發展中國家和小國的領導人必須去填補這一真空。一個國家的領導人肯定要把本國利益放在首位，但是，以鄰為壑的政策從來都是損人不利己的。世界各國團結起來對抗共同的敵人可能是戰勝疫情的唯一辦法。同時，這也能讓各國更深刻地感受到團結的力量。這次疫情可能是大自然給予人類的重要一課。和新冠病毒一樣，全球化也是一種自然現象，不受邊界、國籍、信仰和階層的限制。因此，我們應該超越這些障礙，在相互依存中產生力量。世界的未來有賴於此。
編輯 | Michael Thede，雷娜
對你來說，全球化意味著什麼？
原標題：《雖然很難，但這可能是戰勝疫情的唯一辦法 | 雙語閱讀》
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