9月26日,湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)發布了2016年諾貝獎獲得者的預測名單,列出了諾貝獎委員會很可能會青睞的分別來自5個國家的24位科學家。其採用的方法是通過學者引文分析篩選最具影響力的研究者,並揭示有望獲得科學界最高榮譽的研究者。每年湯森路透社都會在諾獎正式公布之前,預測一下。自2002年以來,湯森路透已經成功預測出39位諾貝爾獎獲得者,雖然並不是所有獲獎者都是預測發布當年的諾貝獎獲得者,但總的來說,湯森路透的預測名單是一個十分可靠的風向標。
今年諾貝爾獎近在咫尺,揭曉儀式將於今天10月3日起陸續舉行,各獎項的具體揭曉時間如下(北京時間):
生理學或醫學獎:10月3日17時30分;
物理學獎:10月4日17時45分;
化學獎:10月5日17時45分;
和平獎:10月7日17時;
經濟學獎:10月10日17時45分。
文學獎的揭曉時間尚未最終確定,但按照往年規律,文學獎當會在化學獎
公布的次日揭曉,也就是10月6日。獎金方面,由於受到經濟危機的影響,從2012年起,諾獎總獎金由1000萬瑞典克朗(約780萬元人民幣)縮水至去年的800萬瑞典克朗(約624萬元人民幣),今年獎金的具體數目尚未公布。
預測名單上有三位研究者來自亞洲研究機構,其中兩位來自日本,一位來自香港。
以下附上這次湯森路透的諾獎預測完整名單:
英文版:
The 2016 Thomson Reuters Web of Science Citation Laureates:
PHYSIOLOGY or MEDICINE
James P. Allison
Professor and Chair, Department of Immunology, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas
Houston, TX USA
Jeffrey A. Bluestone
A.W. and Mary Margaret Clausen Distinguished Professor of Metabolism and Endocrinology, University of California San Francisco Medical School
San Francisco, CA USA
Craig B. Thompson
President and CEO, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
New York, NY USA
For explaining how CD28 and CTLA-4 are regulators of T cell activation, modulating immune response
Gordon J. Freeman
Professor, Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Boston, MA USA
Tasuku Honjo
Visiting Professor, Kyoto University
Kyoto, JAPAN
Arlene H. Sharpe
George Fabyan Professor of Comparative Pathology, Department of Microbiology and Immunobiology, Harvard Medical School and Member, Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital
Boston, MA USA
For elucidating programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and its pathway, which has advanced cancer immunotherapy」
Michael N. Hall
Professor Biozentrum, University of Basel
Basel, SWITZERLAND
David M. Sabatini
Whitehead Institute, Member; Professor of Biology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute; Member, Koch Institute for Integrative Research; Senior Associate Member, Broad Institute.
Cambridge, MA USA
Stuart L. Schreiber
Director of Chemical Biology, Broad Institute, Morris Loeb Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University; Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute
Cambridge, MA USA
For discoveries of the growth regulator Target of Rapamycin (TOR) and the mechanistic Target of Rapamycin (mTOR)
PHYSICS
Marvin L. Cohen
University Professor, Department of Physics, University of California Berkeley; Senior Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley, CA USA
For theoretical studies of solid materials, prediction of their properties, and especially for the empirical pseudopotential method
Ronald W.P. Drever
Professor of Physics Emeritus, California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA USA
Kip S. Thorne
Feynman Professor of Theoretical Physics Emeritus, California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA USA
Rainer Weiss
Professor of Physics Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA USA
For the development of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) that made possible the detection of gravitational waves
Celso Grebogi
Sixth Century Chair in Nonlinear and Complex Systems, School of Natural and Computing Sciences, University of Aberdeen
Aberdeen, SCOTLAND
Edward Ott
Distinguished University Professor, Yuen Sang and Yuen Kit So Professor, Department of Physics, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Institute for Research in Electronics and Applied Physics, University of Maryland
College Park, MD USA
James A. Yorke
Distinguished University Research Professor of Mathematics and Physics, Institute for Physical Sciences and Technology, University of Maryland
College Park, MD USA
For their description of control theory of chaotic systems, the OGY method
CHEMISTRY
George M. Church
Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics, Harvard Medical School
Boston, MA USA
Feng Zhang
W. M. Keck Career Development Professor of Biomedical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Core Member, Broad Institute
Cambridge, MA USA
For application of CRISPR-cas9 gene editing in mouse and human cells
Dennis Lo Yuk-Ming
Li Ka Shing Professor of Medicine and of Chemical Pathology, and Director of the Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong, CHINA
For detecting cell-free fetal DNA in maternal plasma, a revolution in noninvasive prenatal testing
Hiroshi Maeda
Professor, Institute of Drug Delivery Science, Sojo University, and Professor Emeritus, Kumamoto University School of Medicine
Kumamoto, JAPAN
Yasuhiro Matsumura
Director, Division of Developmental Therapeutics, Exploratory Oncology Research and Clinical Trial Center, National Cancer Center
Tokyo, JAPAN
For discovering the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect of macromolecular drugs, a key finding for cancer therapeutics
ECONOMIC SCIENCES
Olivier J. Blanchard
C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. USA and Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics Emeritus, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, MA USA
For contributions to macroeconomics, including determinants of economic fluctuations and employment
Edward P. Lazear
Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, and Jack Steele Parker Professor of Human Resources, Management and Economics, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Stanford, CA USA
For his development of the distinctive field of personnel economics
Marc J. MelitzDavid A. Wells Professor of Political Economy, Department of Economics, Harvard University
Cambridge, MA USA
For pioneering descriptions of firm heterogeneity and international trade
中文版:
生理學/醫學:
詹姆斯·P·艾利森(James P. Allison),美國休斯敦大學免疫學教授
傑弗裡·A·布魯斯通(Jeffrey A. Bluestone),美國加州大學舊金山分校內分泌學教授
克雷格·B·湯普森(Craig B. Thompson),Memorial Sloan Kettering癌症中心CEO
以上三人解釋了CD28和CTLA-4如何控制T細胞的激活並調節免疫應激。
戈登·J·弗裡曼(Gordon J. Freeman),美國哈弗醫學院醫學教授
本庶佑(Tasuku Honjo),日本京都大學客座教授
阿琳·H·夏普(Arlene H. Sharpe),美國哈弗醫學院比較病理學、微生物學和免疫生物學教授、美國Brigham and Women醫院病理部成員
以上三人闡明了程序性死亡分子-1(PD-1)的功能,該結果大力推動了癌症免疫療法的發展。
麥可·N·豪爾(Michael N. Hall),瑞士巴塞爾大學生物中心教授
大衛·M·薩巴蒂尼(David M. Sabatini),美國麻省理工學院生物學教授
思帝華·L·施萊伯(Stuart L. Schreiber),美國哈弗大學化學與生物化學教授
以上三人發現了生長調控器雷帕黴素標靶(TOR)和雷帕黴素機械標靶(mTOR)。
物理學:
馬文·L·科恩(Marvin L. Cohen),美國加州大學伯克利分校物理學教授,美國勞倫斯伯克利國家實驗室資深科學家。他致力於固體材料的理論研究以及材料的性質預測,其中最重要的貢獻是經驗贗勢方法(empirical pseudopotential method)。
羅納德·W.P·德雷福(Ronald W.P. Drever),美國加州理工學院物理學教授
基普·S·索恩(Kip S.Thorne),美國加州理工學院理論物理學教授
雷納·韋斯(Rainer Weiss),美國麻省理工學院物理學教授
以上三人研發了雷射幹涉引力波天文臺(LIGO)讓探測引力波的探測成為可能。
塞爾索·格裡博格(Celso Grebogi),英國阿伯丁大學自然科學與計算機學院教授
愛德華·奧特(Edward Ott),美國馬裡蘭大學物理和電子計算機工程系教授
詹姆斯·A·約克(James A. Yorke),美國馬裡蘭大學數學和物理學教授
以上三人用OGY(Ott, Grebogi and Yorke)方法描述了混沌系統的原理。
化學:
喬治·M·徹奇(George M. Church),美國哈弗醫學院基因學教授
張鋒,美國麻省理工學院生物醫藥工程學教授
以上兩人將CRISPR-cas9基因編輯技術應用到了老鼠和人類細胞上。
盧煜明,中國香港中文大學醫學和化學病理學教授,他發現了從母親血漿中檢測胎兒DNA的方法,為非侵入性產前檢查帶來了革命性的改變。
前田浩(Hiroshi Maeda),日本崇城大學教授,熊本醫科大學名譽教授
中野修(Yasuhiro Matsumura),日本國立癌症中心治療發展部主任
以上兩人發現了高分子藥物能提高藥物的高滲透長滯留效應(enhanced permeability and retention effect),這項發現對於癌症治療至關重要。
經濟學:
奧利維爾·J·布朗查德(Olivier J. Blanchard),美國彼得森國際經濟研究所高級研究員,麻省理工學院經濟系名譽教授,他對宏觀經濟學做出了貢獻。
愛德華·P·拉澤爾(Edward P. Lazear),美國胡佛研究所高級研究員,斯坦福商學研究生院人力資源學教授。他發展了獨樹一幟的「僱員經濟學」(personnel economics)。
馬克·J·梅裡茲 (Marc J. Melitz),美國哈佛大學政治經濟學教授,他對企業的各異性以及國際貿易進行了全新地描述。
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