經濟學人精讀|Picking off the weak

原文選自《The Economist》0418期

撰文 | 貓斯圖

中文導讀

此次全球疫情的爆發影響著世界各國的經濟，一系列的封鎖措施將打擊那些勞動密集型活動的國家，尤其是過度依賴於旅遊業、貿易業的國家受到重創。在經濟擴張期間，發達國家的經濟增長率趨同，即使是最弱的經濟體也會被拉著前進。然而，在經濟低迷時期，表現卻明顯不同。

第1段

As the virus upendsproductive activity across the world, the question now is how bad things will get. On April 14th the IMF warned that the global recession would be the deepest for the best part of a century. But the severity of the pandemic and the uncertainty around the duration of lockdowns are such that economists』 models, trained on business cycles in the postwar era, are of little use. Some companies, such as Starbucks and Dell, have pulled their guidance on annual earnings, declining even to hazard a guess about the future. Amid the fog, however, one thing seems certain: some economies will suffer much more than others.

譯文：隨著病毒嚴重影響著世界各地的生產活動，現在的問題是事情會演變的多糟糕。4月14日，國際貨幣基金組織警告說，此次全球經濟衰退將是一個世紀以來最嚴重的一次。但這一大流行病的嚴重程度和封鎖持續時間的不確定性使得在戰後時期得到商業周期訓練的經濟學家模型幾乎沒有用處。星巴克和戴爾等公司已經取消了對年度收益的預期，甚至拒絕對未來進行猜測。然而，在迷霧中，有一件事似乎是確定無疑的:一些經濟體將比其它經濟體遭受更大的損失。

詞彙解析

upendv. to turn sb/sth upside down 翻倒；倒放；使顛倒hazard n. ~ (to sb/sth) | ~ (of sth/of doing sth) a thing that can be dangerous or cause damage 危險；危害 例：a fire/safety hazard 火災╱安全隱患. v. ① to make a suggestion or guess which you know may be wrong 冒失地提出；冒險猜測 ② ( formal ) to risk sth or put it in danger 冒…的風險；使處於危險 【同義詞】endanger

第2段

Economic crises expose and exacerbatestructural weaknesses. Analysis by The Economist of five decades of GDP data finds that growth rates in rich countries tend to converge during expansions, as even the weakest economies are pulled along. Yet during downturns performance diverges markedly. In the first half of the 2000s the average annual gap between the GDP growth rates of the best- and worst-performing rich countries was five percentage points. In 2008-12, in the recession that followed the global financial crisis, the gap widened to ten points.

譯文：經濟危機暴露並加劇了結構性弱點。《經濟學人》通過對過去50年GDP數據的分析發現，在經濟擴張期間，發達國家的增長率趨於相同，即使是最弱的經濟體也會被拉著前進。然而，在經濟低迷時期，表現卻明顯不同。2000年的前5個月，表現最好和最差的富裕國家的GDP增長率之間的年平均差距為5個百分點。在2008年至2012年期間，經歷了全球金融危機之後的經濟衰退，這一差距擴大到10個百分點。

詞彙解析

exacerbate v. ( formal ) to make sth worse, especially a disease or problem 使惡化；使加劇；使加重 【同義詞】aggravate 【派生詞】exacerbationconverge v. ① ~ (on...) ( of people or vehicles 人或車輛 ) to move towards a place from different directions and meet 匯集；聚集；集中 ② ( of two or more lines, paths, etc. 多條線、小路等 ) to move towards each other and meet at a point （向某一點）相交，會合 【派生詞】convergent lines/opinions 相交的線條；趨於一致的意見 【反義詞】diverge第3段

This recession will be no different. Three factors should help separate the bad economic outcomes from the dire ones: a country’s industrial structure; the composition of its corporate sector; and the effectiveness of its fiscal stimulus. The Economist has used indicators of these to rank, roughly, the exposure of 33 rich countries to the downturn. Some, such as those in southern Europe, appear far more vulnerable than America and northern European countries (see chart).

譯文：這次衰退也不例外。有三個因素應該有助於將糟糕的經濟後果與極其可怕的經濟後果區分開來:一個國家的產業結構;公司部門的組成;以及財政刺激的有效性。《經濟學人》用這些指標對33個富裕國家受經濟衰退影響的程度進行了粗略的排名。一些國家，如南歐國家，似乎比美國和北歐國家更脆弱(見圖表)。

第4段

Take industrial structure first. Lockdowns will slamcountries that depend on labour-intensive activities. Those with large construction sectors, such as many central European countries, look vulnerable. So do those that rely on tourism—it accounts for one in eight non-financial jobs in southern Europe. Conversely, those with large mining industries, which require less labour, may do better. Here Canada looks relatively insulated.

譯文：以產業結構為例。封鎖將打擊那些勞動密集型活動的國家。那些擁有大型建築行業的企業，如許多中歐國家，看上去很脆弱。那些依靠旅遊業的也是如此——旅遊業在南歐提供了八分之一的非金融工作。相反，那些需要較少勞動力的大型礦業企業可能做得更好。在這裡，加拿大看起來情況卻有些不同。

詞彙解析

slam v. ( used especially in newspapers 尤用於報章 ) to criticize sb/sth very strongly 猛烈抨擊insulate v. ~ sb/sth from/against sth to protect sb/sth from unpleasant experiences or influences 使免除（不愉快的經歷）；使免受（不良影響）；隔離第5段

Industrial structure also influences the share of people who can work from home, and thus dodge the worst disruption of the lockdowns. In a paper published on April 10th Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago estimate that fully 45% of jobs in Switzerland could plausibly be done from home. Many Swiss work in industries, such as finance, where all they really need to do their job is a laptop. Others elsewhere do not have this luxury. Less than a third of jobs in Slovakia, a big manufacturing hub, can be performed remotely; home working is also difficult in southern Europe. Research by Indeed, a job-search website, and Ireland’s central bank finds that since the pandemic began, countries where home working is less prevalent have seen bigger falls in the number of online job advertisements.

譯文：產業結構也影響了居家辦公的人的比例，從而避免了停工帶來的最嚴重的破壞。在4月10日發表的一篇論文中，芝加哥大學的Jonathan Dingel和Brent Neiman估計，瑞士45%的工作崗位可以在家完成。許多瑞士人在金融等行業工作，他們真正需要的只是一臺筆記本電腦。其他地方則沒有這種奢侈。在斯洛伐克這個大型製造業中心，只有不到三分之一的工作是可以遠程完成的;在南歐，在家工作也很困難。一家求職網站Indeed和愛爾蘭央行的研究發現，自疫情流行開始以來，在家辦公較少的國家在線招聘廣告數量大幅下降。

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