用達觀叩響未來之門
——盤古智庫2020新年獻詞
EMBRACE THE FUTURE WITH
A BROAD VISION
–THE PANGOAL INSTITUTION』S
2020 NEW YEAR』S MESSAGE
當新年鐘聲敲響，我們站在了21世紀第三個十年的門檻上。來路何等不凡，黨、國家和民族經歷了怎樣的磨難與歷煉，才取得今天這樣的成就。
The New Year’s bell will ring, and we are approaching the third decade of the 21st century. The past was anything but easy. It is hard to imagine what hardships our Party, our country, and our people have experienced to accomplish such extraordinary achievements today.
回想100年前，當20世紀第三個十年開啟之際，中國還在半封建半殖民地的深淵裡掙扎，於外患內憂之中醞釀著激烈的路徑選擇。
A hundred years ago, when China was about to usher in the third decade of the 20th century, Chinese people were still struggling in a semi-colonial and semi-feudal society, and preparing to choose a path forward with troubles at home and abroad around.
1920年，共產主義小組開始在中華大地一些省份出現，其中一個開始起草《中國共產黨宣言》，第一縷曙光出現在天際線上。十年過後，經歷挫折的中國共產黨處在革命低潮期。1930年新年，毛澤東收到一封賀年信，寫信的紅軍將領發出了「紅旗到底能打多久」的疑問。幾天後，毛澤東回了信，指出「星星之火，可以燎原」。
In 1920, Communist groups sprouted up in some provinces of China. One of them drafted the Manifesto of the Communist Party of China, which marked the dawn of a new era. A decade later, the Chinese Communist Party, severely challenged, reached its bottom during the revolution. At the beginning of 1930, Mao Zedong received a New Year’s greeting from a General in the Red Army who raised the question 「How long can the Red Flag flutter in the wind?」 Mao replied a few days later that 「A single spark can start a prairie fire.」
在邁入2020年之際想起這個故事，是因為我們在過去一年真切感受到，身邊不少朋友不同程度地產生甚至陷入悲觀，這種情緒源於經濟增長的持續放緩，源於中美貿易戰的起起伏伏，源於民營企業遭遇的困難，源於外部變化的光怪陸離......
This history comes to mind as the New Year approaches, because we noticed that people around us have become more or less negative, or even pessimistic in the past year, as economic growth continues to slow down, the China–US trade war encounters ups and downs, the private sector is affected by difficulties, and complicated and unexpected changes happened one after another outside of China…
嗯，所有這些也是我們能夠體察的。我們活在一個變化的世界裡，種種變化令我們無從躲避，而那些焦慮和悲觀，歸根結底是來自於面對變化的措手不及和無能為力吧。
These are all happening around us. The volatile world leaves us nowhere to hide from changes. The anxiety and pessimism, in a final analysis, are perhaps a natural response to shock and helplessness.
我們面對的變化不外乎三種：一種是生產生活方式之變，它由市場調節、結構升級、科技進步等因素帶來。一種是國家和社會形態之變，它由政策調整、路線擺動、戰略演進等因素帶來。再一種是外部環境之變，涉及世界經濟環境、全球戰略環境、國際關係環境、自然氣候環境，等等。
Changes we face can be summarized from three perspectives: First, changes in production and lifestyle, resulting from market adjustment, structural upgrading, and technological advances; second, changes in country and society brought about by policy adjustment, path changes, and strategic evolution; third, changes in external environment involving the global economy, the international strategic environment, international relations, and the climate and natural environment.
這些變化，沒有一樣全由主觀意志塑造，也沒有一樣只能歸結於客觀原因。同樣的，沒有誰能自信滿滿地說「變化盡在掌握」，也沒有誰可以草率認定「面對變化我們無從選擇」。
None of these changes can be solely attributed to man-made causes, nor are they simply due to objective factors. In the same vein, no one can assert that 「changes are under control」 or hastily declare that 「there is nothing we can do.」
我們處在三種變化同時活躍發生且相互作用、相互糾纏的時期，很多不符合預期的事情交替發生，所以悲觀情緒不可避免地在一些人心中滋長，這並不為怪。
In this stage with three changes interacting and interwoven with each other, many surprises come about one after another, and it is natural that pessimism inevitably takes root in people’s mind as a result.
但無論怎樣，樂觀者都不能缺位，因為樂觀的本質是對良善與良治的信仰和對未來的美好預期，更是對人、社會、國家和文明不斷進化的欲求。沒有樂觀者的探索，我們的祖先可能早就放棄了在惡劣自然環境中的抗爭，我們也不可能像今天這樣插上技術的翅膀、創建繁盛的機制、享受長久的和平。
Regardless, we should always remain optimistic, as optimism equals not only faith in goodwill and sound governance, but also positive expectations for the future as well as the pursuit of constant evolution of human, society, nation, and civilization. Without optimism in their exploration, our ancestors might have long given up fighting against the harsh natural environment, and we could not have achieved technological miracles, flourishing societies, and long-lasting peace.
面對錯綜複雜的變化，我們不應無視那些可以讓我們保持樂觀的理由：比如，經濟增長的確在放緩，中國與美國的經濟關係的確在經歷痛苦的再平衡，但它們背後恰是供給側改革持續推進、中國加速向史詩級龐大消費社會轉型的事實，而這種轉型必然給我們帶來嶄新的面貌，做大國有與民營經濟共同繁榮的「蛋糕」。
Even surrounded by complicated changes, we have no reason to be pessimistic. Indeed, our economy is slowing down and China-US economic relations are struggling to rebalance. However, we should discover what has been hidden: China’s supply-side structural reform continues to make steady progress, and China is accelerating its transition towards a consumer society on an unprecedented scale, which in turn will push China towards a new stage and make a bigger 「cake」 of common prosperity to be shared by the public and private sectors of China’s economy.
再比如，我們在建設資源節約型、環境友好型社會的過程中的確發生了一些冒進，但各級政府在中央指導下迅速做出調整，建起試錯和糾錯機制，而這種變化必然保障越來越多地方形成「綠水青山」與「金山銀山」的良性循環，讓越來越多百姓過上幸福美好的日子。
Take the environment as another example. We have made haste when building a resource-conserving and environmentally-friendly society, but under the guidance of the Central Government, governments at all levels adjusted their policies immediately and set up a mechanism that allows trial and error correction. The policy changes will certainly guarantee a virtuous circle where 「lucid waters and lush mountains」 are equal to 「invaluable assets」 and ensure a better life for more people.
還有，我們的對外關係發生著結構性的變化，中國的崛起遭遇了近年罕見的懷疑和阻撓，形成了很多我們不得不全力應對的麻煩，但這些恰恰提高了我們的博弈能力，也提醒我們冷靜看待自身能量、客觀理解他人訴求，更加注意以一種平和、開放、包容的方式走向世界歷史的舞臺。
In addition, China’s foreign relations are experiencing structural changes. China, in recent years, has risen with unusual suspicion and obstacles, which we must overcome. These challenges, however, improve our national strategies and remind us of measuring our own power while understanding other’s demands objectively, and approaching the center of the global stage in a peaceful, open-minded, and inclusive manner.
尼採說，「人是一根繩索，連接在動物與超人之間——繩索懸於深淵上方」。沒有強者是在順境中煉成的，人的主觀意志在樂觀主義與悲觀主義之間的選擇往往能夠決定繩索擺動的方向，決定我們是升上晴空還是滑向深淵。
Nietzsche once said, 「Man is a rope stretched between the animal and the Superman – a rope over an abyss.」 No one grows to be strong in favorable circumstances. When choosing between optimism and pessimism, one can ultimately decide to which side the rope swings – either the bright sky or a deep abyss.
不過，我們在倡導樂觀主義的同時，仍要感謝悲觀者主義的敏感。積極的悲觀主義者，也是清醒的現實主義者，往往還是善意的批評者。他們能看透問題的本質，擺出事物發展的最壞可能，提醒我們尊重常識，注意行為的邊界和邏輯的底線，懂得在前進的同時提防風險，避免盲目樂觀和虛假自信。
While advocating optimism, we should also be grateful to the sensitivity of those pessimists. Optimistic pessimists are clear-headed realists and often criticize with good intentions. They can determine the nature of the problem, point out the worst-case scenarios, and remind us of common sense and bottom lines for our behavior and logic. They know how to prevent risks while moving ahead and avoid blind optimism and fictitious thinking.
其實在樂觀與悲觀之間有一種更貼近理性的態度，那便是「達觀」。
Here is a more rational attitude than optimism and pessimism -- 「broad vision.」
「達觀」，是一種洞察力。在新的十年開啟的埠，我們尤其需要從歷史的角度洞察各種趨勢——政治的、經濟的、社會的、技術的、文化的、戰略的、交往範式的......善於從變化中找到規律和方向，從不確定性中發現確定性。
A 「broad vision」 entails insights. At the threshold of a new decade, it is essential for us to have insights into political, economic, social, technological, cultural, strategic, and relationship paradigm aspects. Moreover, insights enable us to pinpoint a regular pattern and direction in changes and certainty in uncertainty.
「達觀」，是一種信任力。信任是凝聚的前提，我們要相信黨和政府一定能帶著我們迎難克險，不斷推進國家治理體系和治理能力現代化。
A 「broad vision」 entails trust. Trust is the prerequisite for unity. We must believe that our Party and government will sail through all the difficulties with us and continue the modernization of China’s system and capacity for governance.
「達觀」，是一種包容力。「君子賢而能容罷，知而能容愚，博而能容淺，粹而能容雜」。包容是聽取不同意見、理解不同想法、兼容各方利益、全方位考慮問題的能力，這種品質在複雜變化的當下尤其難能可貴。
A 「broad vision」 entails inclusiveness. 「A man of virtue is virtuous but can accept heartily those who have no virtue, smart but can accept heartily those who are slow-witted, well-informed but can accept heartily those who are unlearned, and righteous but can accept heartily those who are sinful.」 Inclusiveness means listening to and understanding different opinions, accommodating interests of different parties and considering problems from all perspectives. It is a quality that is especially valuable in a moment of complicated changes.
「達觀」，是一種隱忍力。只要繼續存在，我們就不應輕言放棄，也不能把眼界困在當下。多少年後當我們在大海裡暢遊時，回頭看今天經歷的事情，可能只不過「颱風過境」而已。
A 「broad vision」 entails endurance. As long as we have breath, we should never give up or limit our vision in the present. Years afterwards, when we sail freely across the ocean and look back on what we would have done, the past is no more than a 「hurricane passing by.」
「達觀」，更是一種行動力。一打口號比不上一個行動，一堆抱怨不如付諸奮鬥。如果一個社會能夠讓謹慎的樂觀主義者和積極的悲觀主義坐到一起，為了共同的目標把不同角度的智慧和洞見匯集起來，轉化為披荊斬棘、改變現實的行動，那麼這個社會一定是個強大的社會，也一定能到達美好生活的彼岸。
More importantly, a 「broad vision」 entails action. Actions speak louder than words, and striving means more than complaining. Only by bringing different ideas and insights from optimists and pessimists for common goals, which inspire actions that can blaze a new trail through hardships and change reality, can society grow strong enough to support a good life.
盤古智庫所秉持的「天地人和、經世致用」理念，本質上是一種達觀的價值取向。
The Pangoal Institution upholds the philosophy of 「pursuing harmony between nature and humankind and applying knowledge for public policy solutions,」 which in its essence also demonstrates the value of a broad vision.
盤古智庫作為社會智庫，即將進入她的第七個年頭。過去一年，我們緊隨趨勢、緊跟政策，積極參與中外交流，繼續在宏觀經濟、老齡社會、數字經濟、縣域轉型、區域合作、邊海問題等領域發力，成功舉辦一系列研討活動並提交、發布相關報告和專著，助力國家改革和發展大計，助力中國與印度、東協、日本、韓國、美國等國的外交關係，入選「區域國別研究與國際關係領域TOP15」「一帶一路研究特色智庫」「新浪財經頭條年度最佳智庫」，獲得「CTTI智庫最佳實踐案列」等榮譽，也有多位學術委員在各自領域取得驕人成就。
As a social think tank, the Pangoal Institution is now nearly seven years old. In the past year, we kept a close eye on all the trends and policies and actively engaged in foreign exchanges. We continued our efforts in studying many fields, including macroeconomics, aging society, smart agriculture, transitions in counties, regional cooperation, and boundary and ocean affairs, and hosted a series of seminars, submitted and published related reports and books in support of China’s reform and development as well as China’s foreign relations with countries such as India, the ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and the US. We were among the 「Top 15 Institutes of International and Regional Studies and International Relations」 and awarded 「Best Think Tank on the Belt and Road Studies,」 「Best Think Tank in 2018」 by Sina Finance and 「Best Practice for Think Tanks in 2019」 by CTTI. Many scholars at the Pangoal Institution also made remarkable breakthroughs in their own fields.
所有這些都是在挑戰和壓力增多的情況下取得的，沒有智庫專家學者和工作人員堅守本心不能實現，沒有大家保持關注和支持不能完成。越是快速變化的形勢，越蘊含有所作為的機會。我們將繼續沿著已選定的路徑走深走實，也祝願大家都擁有強大的內心、堅持理想的情懷，把2020年的路走好，以此叩響通向廣闊未來的大門。
All of this was achieved despite many challenges and growing pressure and cannot possibly be achieved without the professionals, scholars, and other staff who adhere to their initial goals or without the attention and support from all. The faster things change, the more opportunities there are for us to make a difference. We will tread the path we chose with more determination and more endeavor. We wish you all stay true to your dreams in 2020 with a strong mind, and embrace a brighter future.
盤古智庫
2019年12月31日