對話美國著名投資人吉姆·羅傑斯: 未來兩三年許多人將損失慘重

獨家對話美國著名投資人吉姆·羅傑斯： 未來兩三年許多人將損失慘重

記者|林偉萍

編輯|李壯

羅傑斯精彩語錄：

這次危機會比2008年全球金融危機更糟糕。如果全世界的政客都不明智，那麼這次危機比30年代那次還要嚴重是有可能的。

立即停止對市場的幹預，不要再借那麼多的債，讓市場機制發揮作用，讓那些有意願、有能力解決問題的人到他們該去的位置上，讓一切重新開始，麻煩才會儘早結束。

隔離不是一件好事，應對此次疫情還有其他解決方案。

我持有不少美元和人民幣現金 ，剛買入了黃金和白銀，農產品商品的機會也不錯。

現在不僅通過B股、H股以及美國上市的中概股持有中國資產，我也持有A股了，加倉中國紅酒公司

投資不是容易的事，認為投資很容易的人還是別做投資了，趁早轉行吧。投資賺錢是很難的，對投資要有足夠的耐心。

（提醒：本文為《紅周刊》32期封面文章節選版，專訪中羅傑斯還就中國資產能否成為全球資產的「避風港」、是否將投資「新基建」、其所持有的中國航空股是否將調倉；美聯儲「放水」是否將影響美元的上漲趨勢、黃金的未來投資機會，以及如何在「冷門股」中尋找好公司、為何迴避蘋果、亞馬遜等熱門科技股等精彩話題。閱讀專訪完整版請點擊下方圖片訂閱本期《紅周刊》。）

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新冠肺炎疫情、「石油戰」、全球市場暴跌、原油期貨「負價格」……2020年全球市場「黑天鵝」不斷。如果有人聽從了美國著名投資人吉姆·羅傑斯四五年前的建議，或許遇到的麻煩會少一些，因為他那時就呼籲投資者要警惕新一輪全球經濟危機的出現。

2020年4月20日上午10時，在《紅周刊》演播室，我們連線了在新加坡居家隔離（新加坡政府要求所有居民4月7日~5月4日居家隔離）中的吉姆·羅傑斯。在專訪中，羅傑斯表示，當前世界各國債臺高築是引發他擔憂的主要原因，「2008年擁有大量貨幣儲備的中國救了全世界，但這次中國自身也有不少債務。」在他的預期中，這將是他有生以來遭遇的最糟糕的熊市。「雖然現在還沒有體現，但最終結果一定會比2008年更糟糕，但可能好於1929年。」

對於當前各國央行「撒錢救市」的舉措，他認為，這只會讓市場變得更差，美股多年牛市正在走向終結。但同時，他仍堅定看好中國資產。他在採訪中透露，上周剛加倉了一家中國紅酒公司，對於自己持有的中國航空公司資產也沒有賣出的打算，如果出現有利條件還會加倉。「中國是21世紀最偉大的國家並不僅是口頭說說，我的兩個女兒都在學習中文，我用實踐在表達我對中國的看好。」

他提醒所有投資者，未來兩三年可能很多人會損失很多錢。

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以下為中英文對話實錄節選：

《紅周刊》：羅傑斯先生，您好！很榮幸能夠邀請到您，做客我們「面對面」獨家深度專訪節目。

Weekly on Stocks: Hi Mr. Rogers! It is a great honor to have youwith us for an exclusive in-depth interview on 「Face to Face」.

羅傑斯：我非常高興來參加此次採訪。我很久沒有見過你們了，所以真的很高興。我還清晰地記得早在2004年參加你們首屆「國際投資大師講壇」，那會兒我比現在年輕多了。那是一段很愉快的經歷，也讓我更加深入的了解了中國。

Rogers:I’m very delighted to be here. I haven’t seen you for a long time, so I’mreally happy. In 2004, I participated in your first international MastersForum; I was much younger back then. That’s a wonderful experience, making meknow better about China.

《紅周刊》：您作為我們《紅周刊》的榮譽顧問，10多年來也給予我們很多指導和支持，我們對此心懷感激。

Weekly on Stocks: We are grateful for the guidance and support youhave given us over the past 1decade as our honorary advisor at Weekly onStocks.

羅傑斯：謝謝你們，謝謝大家。

Rogers:Thank you, thank all of you.

《紅周刊》：首先希望跟您探討全球疫情以及全球市場大幅調整的問題，新冠肺炎疫情也影響您的生活了吧？

Weekly on Stocks: First ofall, I would like to discuss with you about the global pandemic and the major correctionof global market. Has the outbreak of COVID-19 also affected your life?

羅傑斯：的確，新冠肺炎已經成為全球大流行病。我的生活也受到了影響，我現在只能待在新加坡的家裡，不能去中國，也不能去其他任何地方。現在有一些中國股票是讓我很感興趣的，或許將來我會去買它們，但現在我沒有辦法親自去了解它們。

Rogers: Indeed, the disease has become aglobal pandemic. My life is also affected. I have to stay at home in Singapore.I can’t go to China or anywhere else. There are some Chinese stocks I’m veryinterested in, but at present I can’t go to check them. Maybe I』ll buy themlater.

《紅周刊》：全球經濟因為疫情遭受重創，您在四五年前就提醒投資者「新一輪的全球性經濟危機未來幾年將會爆發。」現在這輪經濟危機是您預想的那樣嗎？

Weekly on Stocks: The global economy was hit hard by the outbreak,and you warned investors four or five years ago that 「another global economiccrisis will be triggered in the next few years.」 Is the current economic crisisas what you expected?

羅傑斯：我當時說，如果下一輪經濟危機到來，將會是我有生以來經歷最糟糕的一次。我判斷的理由是，2008年的經濟危機爆發的理由是當時全球負債水平非常高。可據我觀察，2008年以來，世界各國或地區的負債水平不減反增，債務問題日益嚴重。所以我說，一旦再出現經濟危機，我們將會陷入非常可怕的境地。現在的市場已經應驗了。

Rogers: What I said was, when we haveanother economic crisis, it is going to be the worst in my lifetime. The reasonwas, the economic crisis of 2008 was due to a high global debt. For what I cansee, the debt has been surging rather than reducing since then. So, if anothercrisis comes up, it will to be horrible. And it is.

《紅周刊》：我們可以就此判斷美股十多年的牛市已經走到頭了嗎？

Weekly on Stocks: Can we conclude that the decade-long bull marketin U.S. stocks is over?

羅傑斯：目前看，美股牛市大概率已經結束了，或者說離結束的日期不遠了。受美國政府以及世界各地政府瘋狂的「砸錢」，加印鈔票，股票市場出現了止跌回升。這種情況或許可以持續一段時間，因為有非常多的資金注入了市場，但這可能只是一次迴光返照。

Rogers:Yes, the bull market is drawing to aclose, or maybe it’s already ended. Since the US government and other nationalgovernments have been spending and printing huge amount of money, we’re havinga rally in shares on the stock market. This situation may go on for a while,because so much money has been pumped into the market. But this will be thelast rally before the emerging storm.

《紅周刊》：巴菲特近期表示，今年股市的調整並不像1987年或者2008年那麼糟糕，這和您的觀點似乎相差較遠。

Weekly on Stocks: Buffett recently said that this year’s correctionof the stock market isn’t as bad as that in 1987 or 2008, which seems quite farfrom your point of view.

羅傑斯：在這場危機結束以前，我相信它會比2008年那次更糟糕，只是現在還沒有表現出來而已。畢竟現在剛剛過去六個星期，股市目前的調整隻是減緩了一些。

Rogers:No, this crisis is going to be worsethan that of 2008 before it’s over. It has not been yet, but it will be. Afterall, it’s only been six weeks. Now the turbulence of the market is onlytemporarily lessened.

《紅周刊》：那麼這次全球經濟衰退會像1929年全球市場大蕭條那樣嚴重嗎？

Weekly on Stocks: So, will this global economic recession be assevere as the Great Depression in 1929?

羅傑斯：我覺得這次危機倒不見得像上世紀30年代大危機那樣嚴重，儘管不能完全排除這種可能。這取決於這樣幾大因素：首先目前全球債務問題實在是太嚴重了。其次，在20世紀30年代，由於美國、歐洲等政客們有許多錯誤決策，才導致了那次大蕭條。而現在他們依然可能會犯錯誤，有些人已經開始（犯錯）了。例如，美國正在做一些錯誤決定，新加坡也是，還有其他國家……如果說中國的話，它應該變得更開放。就是說，如果全世界的政客都不明智，那麼這次危機比30年代那次還要嚴重是有可能的。

但現在來看，還沒到那個地步。

Rogers:I doubt it will be as severe as the Great Depression, but it could be. First,the world is drowning in debt. Second, we had the Great Depression becausepoliticians made mistakes, and they may make mistakes again. As I can see,they’re beginning to make mistakes. Governments of the US and Singapore aremaking mistakes; other countries may follow them. As for China, it’s marketshould be more open. If politicians don’t make wise decisions, then we』ll havea crisis worse than the Great Depression.

Ofcourse, we haven’t gone that far by now.

《紅周刊》：您所說的錯誤應該包含各國央行不斷「放水」吧？

Weekly on Stocks: The mistakesyou mentioned should include the continuous 「liquidity injections」 by centralbanks in various countries, right?

羅傑斯：（央行放水）只是各種錯誤中的一個。美國政府推出了2萬億財政刺激計劃，央行則在加印數萬億美元的紙幣。這個數量級真的非常可怕，負債將會突破天際，所以後果也將是難以承受的。短期內或許還好，因為今年總統大選將在11月份舉行，所以在大選結束以前問題或許不會顯現。不過在那以後，這些天量債務導致的問題就會出現，無論對美國還是其他的國家來說，都將是一場噩夢。

Rogers:That’s one of the mistakes. The US government approved the $2-trillion stimuluspackage while the central bank is printing another several trillion dollars.It’s staggering amount of money. The debt is soaring extremely high, so theconsequence will be terrible. Maybe we』ll be OK for a few months, because theelection is in November. We may be OK until then; but with all the debt, wewon’t hold out much longer. It will be a nightmare for the US and othercountries.

《紅周刊》：如果各國央行不「印鈔」，讓市場通過「自我修正機制」來恢復，後果會比現在更好還是更糟糕？

Weekly on Stocks: Would theconsequences be better or worse if let the market recover through aself-correcting mechanism instead of banknote printing?

羅傑斯：從長遠來看，讓市場自我調節是更有好處的。政府採取救濟行為以便事態不會失控，但這些一時的救濟只會導致問題積累得越來越嚴重。2008年經濟危機中，政府出手幹預沒有讓市場崩潰，事態也的確變好了。但到了今天，債務已經積累得太高了。在2008、2009年，可能有些人沒有為此付出代價，所以當問題再一次出現時，後果將會更加嚴重。

早在2008年危機的時候，就應該讓事態自然發展。儘管當時的情況會很糟糕，但是至少當整個市場出清之後，事情就會真正變好。歷來都是這樣的，許多國家都經歷過這種事情，包括美國。經濟體系崩潰而後重新洗牌，之後的一兩年會很難熬，但事情會越來越好。以美國目前對市場的做法來說，是治標不治本的，從長期來看沒有好處。

Rogers:Itwill be better in the long run. The US government props the market up to avoida breakdown; but with the accumulating debt, the breakdown is unavoidable, andit』ll be much more worsened. In 2008, the market didn’t collapse, and now wehave an all-time high debt. Nobody paid the price in 2008 and 2009, so when wehave the next problem, it’s going to be more serious.

It would have been better to let things swelled up in 2008. Thoughit would be terrible, temporarily, but if we cleaned out the system, therewould be a new dawn. It’s what happened on the history. Many countries,including the US, have cleaned out the system. We had pain for a year or two,then we prosper. What the US government is doing is not good in the long run.

《紅周刊》：您預計此次調整真正結束的時間是什麼時候？

Weekly on Stocks: When do youexpect the real end of this correction?

羅傑斯：這次全球調整將會持續很久。按以往經驗來說，一般會持續一年至一年半。這段時間內我們會感到很痛苦，然後事態逐步得到改善。但我還是想強調一下，因為當前全球嚴重的債務水平比之前提高了很多，所以恢復起來會更艱難。

在2008年經濟危機中，中國還有很多貨幣儲備來應對困難時期。危機到來時，中國用這些錢救了自己，也幫助了世界。現在中國自身也有負債，所以對全球來說這一次危機都不會好過。看看吧，世界各國都是債臺高築。

Rogers:It will last long. Usually we need a year or a year and a half to tide over thestorm. We』ll suffer then start over. But remember, we are having an all-timehigh debt, so this time, it’s going to take long to recover. It』ll be very hardfor us.

Inthe crisis of 2008, China saved a lot of money for the rainy day. When it startedto rain,China saved itself and helped the whole world by those money.However,China is also in debt now. All the countries are drowning in debt, so thecrisis will be very hard to solve.

《紅周刊》：那在您看來，哪些因素或者措施會促使其儘早結束呢？

Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, what are the factors or measures that will prompt it to end as earlyas possible?

羅傑斯：立即停止對市場的幹預，不要再借那麼多的債，讓市場機制發揮作用，讓那些有意願、有能力解決問題的人到他們該去的位置上，讓一切重新開始。當一些人陷入麻煩時，有才智的人會來接手他們的資產，重新運作，讓事態重獲好的出發點。歷來如此，這是市場機制的運作方式。然而，無論是在東方還是西方，現在人們都不想這樣做。強硬幹預帶來的結果是，資產沒有被給到那些有才智的人手裡，而是給到了那些無法勝任的人手裡，並且讓那些無法勝任的人繼續和有才智的人——完全是用自己的錢——來展開競爭。

這很荒謬。這使得我們無法清理整個經濟系統，以讓它正常運轉。清理過程就像一場山火，你身在其中時會覺得十分可怕，但山火會燒掉那些壞木頭和一些灌木叢。在這場火之後，森林也會長得比之前更好。經濟衰退就是要靠這樣的方式復原的，從來都是如此。不過現在美國和西方不願意面對這樣的事，所以情況變得越來越糟糕。

Rogers:We need to stop intervening the market and owing so much debt. Let the markettake its own course. Let the competent people fill where they may fill. Thenwe』ll start over. That’s how the mechanism is supposed to work. When somepeople get into trouble, other competent people will come to take over theassets from them, reorganizing the market and making it start over from a soundbase. It has always been so. But now, things are going on the other way allaround the world. With too much intervening, the assets are taken away from thecompetent people and left for the incompetent people; the competent people haveto cope with their own money.

It’sabsurd. We can’t clean out the system by this way. What we need is a 「forestfire」. A forest fire is horrible if you are in it. But it cleans out badwood and underbrush, then the forest can grow even better afterwards. That iswhat recessions do through history all over the world. However, theUS and the West don’t want to face a breakdown, so the problem is getting worseand worse.

《紅周刊》：作為此次市場調整的另一大「黑天鵝」，沙特和俄羅斯等國家的「石油戰」有緩和的跡象，這是否有助於加速市場從熊市氛圍中走出來？

Weekly on Stocks: As another 「blackswan」 in this market correction, the 「oil price war」 between countries such asSaudi Arabia and Russia is showing signs of mitigation. Would this help toaccelerate the market out of the bear market atmosphere?

羅傑斯：石油價格戰對大量使用石油的國家當然是有好處的，比如德國和日本。對韓國等世界上的許多國家也都有好處，但對沙烏地阿拉伯和俄羅斯而言卻並非好事。

Rogers: The oil price war is certainlygood for countries that use a lot of oil, such as Germany and Japan. It is alsogood for many countries in the world, including South Korea, but definitely notgood for Saudi Arabia and Russia.

《紅周刊》：原油價格今年曾下探到18美元/桶的價格，您如何看未來原油價格的發展趨勢？

Weekly on Stocks: The crudeoil price has dipped to $18/bbl. this year. What do you think of thedevelopment trend of crude oil price in the future?

羅傑斯：現在的石油價格不是史上最低，但的確是很長一段時間以來的最低價。從原油價格規律來看，受各種複雜原因影響，油價出現觸底；然後恢復一段時間，隨後下探到一個更低點；然後再慢慢攀升，不斷循環。無論是2008年還是現在，都符合這個規律。

Rogers: The current oil price is not thelowest in history, but it is the lowest for a long time. From the rule of crudeoil prices, affected by various complex reasons, oil prices hit bottom; thenafter being recovered for a while, it will dip to a lower point; then it willgo up slowly and keep going like this. Whether in 2008 or now, this is therule.

《紅周刊》：周一(4月20日)，NYMEX原油期貨2005(5月合約)報收於每桶-37.63美元，自1983年開始交易以來首次出現負值。您認為是什麼原因導致「負價格」這種極端情況的出現？

Weekly on Stocks: On Monday (April 20), NYMEX crude futures for May2005 closed at -$37.63 a barrel, the first time since trading began in 1983 that thetransaction has turned negative. What do you think causes the extreme situationof 「negative price」?

羅傑斯：很簡單，這是期貨市場的反常現象，這個價格你不能買石油。期貨市場規定，在特定的日子必須進行交割。有人付錢給你，你就要交割石油。但是現在，所有儲油的地方都裝滿了油。因此，無論是什麼價格都沒人想買石油。而期貨市場的大多數參與者只是買賣石油，而不消費石油。所以，突然一下，有一車石油要運來了，我們必須把它處理掉。他們不得不趕緊拋售。最後，他們付錢給別人來把石油拉走，因為芝加哥和其他市場的參與者不可能接收這些石油，就像前面說的許多儲油罐都裝滿了。這種情況後續還會發生。但顯然發生的概率小了很多。

所以，這個故事的教訓是，你應該馬上去成立一家儲油罐公司。你可以把儲油罐租出去，大賺一筆（笑）。

Rogers:It’s very simple. This is an aberration in the futures market. You can’t buyoil at this price. In the futures markets, you have to deliver the oil on acertain day. When someone pays you, you deliver the oil. But now, all theplaces for oil storage are full; no one wants to buy oil even at a very lowprice. Most participants in the futures market just buy and sell oil, but notuse it. So, when there’s a truckload of oil going to come all of a sudden, wegot to get rid of it. They had to dump it hurriedly. In the end, they paidsomebody else to take the oil away, because participants in Chicago and othermarkets were in no position to take the oil. As mentioned before, many of theoil storage tanks were already full. It can happen again. But it’s obviouslymuch less likely to happen.

So,the lesson from this story is that you should go and start a company of storagetanks right away. You can rent out the tanks and make a lot of money (Laugh).

《紅周刊》：其實，布倫特原油6月份期貨合約近期內將要進行結算，有沒有可能也會出現再次下跌甚至負值？

Weekly on Stocks: In fact, theBrent crude oil futures contract in June is to be settled in the near future.Is there any chance that it will fall again or even go negative?

羅傑斯：我不知道，也許你們的節目可以告訴我答案（笑）。市場現在肯定是有所準備了，「負價格」對所有人來說都是一個意料之外的事情，沒有人想得到，因為以往從來沒發生過。但是，現在包括交易所，包括那些或許想低價買入石油的人都有所準備了。如果他們看到有人必須要拋售石油，就會有人出來買，有些人仍然需要消費石油。所以，我們等著看吧。這對你（記者）來說是好事，因為你有了報導的素材。

Rogers:I don't know. Maybe your show can tell me the answer (Laugh). The market iscertainly better prepared now. 「Negative price」 came as a big surprise toeveryone. No one wants it, for it never happened before. But now exchanges,including those who might want to buy oil at low prices, have got ready. Ifthey see someone has to dump the oil, someone may buy it, and some people douse oil still. So, we』ll see. It’s good for you (reporters), because you havesomething to report.

《紅周刊》：原油期貨都出現「負價格」這種極端情況了，我們能否據此認為，全球市場前景變得更加不確定了？

Weekly on Stocks: Such extremesituation like 「negative price」 has occurred to crude oil futures, can weassume that the outlook for global markets has become more uncertain?

羅傑斯：當然，這意味著有些石油公司和石油鑽探公司會破產。水力壓裂（頁巖油）行業的情況很糟糕，有些石油公司負債很高，它們的日子也不會好過。我說過，在沙烏地阿拉伯、科威特、蘇丹等嚴重依賴石油或油價的國家，你會看到更多的問題，例如企業破產。在航運業，目前有一家很大的新加坡的公司已經破產了，原因是它們完全沒料到油價會下跌。所以，經濟肯定會受到影響，股市也會反映出來。但要記住，有人會樂見油價下跌。如果你是韓國人，你會覺得這是好消息。如果你是中國人，你也會覺得這是好消息。這對新加坡人也是好消息，但破產的這家公司除外。

Rogers:Of course, this means that some oil companies and oil drilling companies aregoing to go bankrupt. It’s a very bad situation for the hydraulic fracturing(shale oil) industry, and some of the oil companies are heavily indebted andthey are going to have a hard time. As I said, in the countries like SaudiArabia, Kuwait, Sudan which depend largely on oil or the oil price, you aregoing to see more problems, such as bankruptcies. In the shipping industry, alarge Singaporean company has gone bankrupt because it did not expect the oilprice to fall. Thus, it’s having ramifications in the economy, and that willalso have a reflection in the stock market. But remember, there are some peoplewho love to see this. If you are Korean, you would think this is wonderful. Ifyou are Chinese, you will also think this is wonderful. It is also great forSingaporeans, except for the company that went bankrupt.

《紅周刊》：英國衛報發表觀點認為，如果世界各地迅速結束「隔離」，將加速石油市場價格的復甦。這個判斷是否樂觀了？

Weekly on Stocks: A swift endto 「isolation」 around the world could accelerate a recovery in oil marketprices, according to The Guardian. Is that over-optimistic?

羅傑斯：不，我不覺得這個觀點過於樂觀。在我看來，隔離是個錯誤。我們以前也經歷過恐慌和流行病。你知道，我們經歷過非典。2009年我們經歷過H1N1禽流感。在H1N1禽流感期間，美國經濟沒有封鎖。不可否認，病毒的確會對人們的健康帶來影響，但歷史證明，人們學會了適應。新加坡全面隔離，但疫情更嚴重了，因為人們全都擠在一起。所以，在我看來，隔離不是一件好事。而且，一旦經濟重新開放，所有東西的需求都會上升。例如，我們看到，奧地利正在解封，但瑞典始終沒有「封國」「封城」。所以，不一定要封鎖，應對此次疫情還有其他解決方案。

Rogers:No, I don’t think that’s over-optimistic. In my opinion, isolation is amistake. We』ve had panics and epidemics before. You know, we had SARS. We hadthe H1N1 avian influenza in 2009. When we had the H1N1, the U.S. economy wasnot locked down. There is no denying that viruses do have an impact on people’shealth, but history shows that people have learnt to adapt. Singapore wascompletely isolated, but it got worse because everyone has packed in together.So, in my opinion, isolation is not a good thing.Andonce the economy reopened, the demand for everything would rise. We see, forexample, that Austria is lifting the lockdown, but Sweden never conducts the 「lockdown」of the country and its cities. So, it doesn’t have to be a lockdown. There areother solutions as well.

《紅周刊》：在您看來，現在是買入原油期貨的好時機嗎？如果您要買入的話，您會選擇在什麼時點呢？

Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, is it the good timing to buy in crude oil futures? If you were to buy,when would you choose to buy it?

羅傑斯：現在石油崩盤了，市場非常混亂。通常，在任何國家的任何市場，有這樣的事情發生時，如果你知道自己在做什麼並買入了，你可能會經歷一段時間的動蕩難熬期，但最終都會沒事。

Rogers:Now the oil has crashed and the market is in chaos. Usually, in any market inany country, when such thing occurs, if you know what you are doing and you buyin, you might go through a turbulent period for a while, but eventually youwill be fine.

恐慌和流行病不會永遠持續下去。封鎖不會永遠持續下去。所以，我們還會開車，我們還會搭乘飛機。所以，如果你進場，我可能也會進場。我現在沒有進場是因為我在做別的事情。如果我不是太懶，我也許應該進場或思考何時及如何進場買入，來投資這個行業。因為目前存在恐慌，而如果你在恐慌的時候買入，你總能賺錢。

Panics and pandemics are not going to lastforever.Closures are not going to lastforever. So, we are going to drive again, we are going to take airplanes again.If you step in, I might do it. I’m not doing it today because I’m doing otherthings. But If I were not so lazy, I probably should be stepping in or figuringabout when and how to step in and buy, making investments in this sector. Because there is apanic and whenever you buy during a panic, you can always do well.

《紅周刊》：就像巴菲特所說的趕在恐懼的時候去「貪婪」。

Weekly on Stocks: To be 「greedy」in a time of fearful, as Warren Buffett said.

羅傑斯：巴菲特用的是恐懼，我用的是恐慌，基本上是一個意思。

Rogers: He used the word 「fearful」. I usethe word 「panic」. Basically, it’s the same approach.

《紅周刊》：在您看來，原油期貨的暴跌會對美國股債市場產生怎樣的影響？

Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, how will the collapse of crude oil futures affect the U.S. equity andbond markets?

羅傑斯：主要是對石油公司和石油鑽探公司不利，因為顯然它們會大幅虧損。對美國老百姓有利，那些需要石油來發電、為汽車加油、使用空調或有其他用途的人們會受益。對中國有利。對日本、韓國或任何石油消費國都有利。這對石油公司或產油國不利，但顯然對其他人有利。

美國股市有相當大的一部分是石油公司和石油鑽探公司，所以這部分經濟會受到衝擊。由於這類公司佔比較大，所以會對大市產生影響。但美國股市不是只有石油，誘發美國股市下跌的因素也不僅是石油，還有肺炎疫情。

Rogers:It’smainly terrible for oil companies and oil drilling companies, because obviouslythey are going to have a lot less money. It is good for American citizens,people who use oil for electricity, or cars, or air conditioning or whatever.It’s good for China. It’s good for Japan, Korea, and any oil consuming country.This is not good for oil companies or oil producing countries. But it is certainly good for everybody else.

A large part of the USstock market is made up of oil companies and oil drilling companies. So thatpart of the American economy will suffer. Since it’s a large part, it will havean effect on the overall market. However, the factors that make the Americanstock market going down are not just oil, but also the outbreak of the COVID-19.

《紅周刊》：從美國政府數據來看，美國原油儲備在3月份整個市場開始下跌的時候不斷買入原油，您如何看美國原油儲備的動作？

Weekly on Stocks: According to U.S. government data, U.S. crude oilreserves continued to buy oil in March as the overall market began to fall.What do you think of the actions taken by U.S. crude oil reserves?

羅傑斯：川普這樣做是為了選票。眾所周知，他正在失去產油區的選票。但其實所有國家都應該這樣做。石油崩盤了，油價下跌了，如果中國、德國或任何其他國家，如果它們沒有足夠的儲備來應對緊急狀況，都應該馬上進場去買石油並存放在自己的儲油罐裡。

Rogers: Trump is doing that because hewants to get votes. As everyone knows, he’s losing votes in the oil producingareas. Although, it’s something that all countries should be doing. Oil hascollapsed. Oil prices have fell down. If China, Germany or any other countryhave not enough reserves of oil for emergencies, they should be stepping in andbuying oil now and putting it in their own storage tanks.

《紅周刊》：疫情使得各國全球供應鏈有了新的認識，美、日等國政府一些高官鼓勵跨國企業將生產線遷回本土，這被市場理解為「逆全球化」，您如何看待這種現象？

Weekly on Stocks: The epidemichas led to a new understanding of global supply chains in various countries,and some senior government officials in the US and Japan have encouragedmultinational companies to relocate their production lines back to their homecountries, which is understood by the market as "ReverseGlobalization". How do you think about this?

羅傑斯：很不幸，歷史上確實有過這樣的時刻。有時國家們會變得更開放、更國際化，有時它們變得更封閉。我想在長達幾十年的開放化之後，世界現在有了封閉的趨勢。這不是一件好事。在1930年代大危機時期就出現過這種狀態，它導致了戰爭，以及其他許多問題。現在也有這種趨勢。我希望它不會長久。許多美國公司都在搬回美國，但在美國開辦企業的成本是非常昂貴的，產品質量卻未必同樣好。目前事態或許就是如此，這很不好，無論是對我的孩子，還是對這個世界。

Rogers: Unfortunately, there have indeedbeen such moments in history. Sometimes countries become more open andinternational, sometimes they become more closed. I think after decades-longopenness, the world now has a tendency to be closed, which is not a good trend.Such state existed during the Great Depression of the 1930s, which led to war,among many other problems. There is also a trend towards this now. I hope itwon’t last long. Many US companies are moving back to the US, but the cost ofstarting a business in the US is quite expensive and the quality of the productmay not be as good. That may be the case with the current state of affairs, andit's bad, both for my children and for the world.

《紅周刊》：部分職業投資人開始擔憂疫情後中美貿易摩擦再度升級所帶來的潛在風險，您是否有類似的擔憂？

Weekly on Stocks: Someprofessional investors are beginning to worry about the potential risks ofrenewed escalation of trade frictions between the US and China following theepidemic, do you have similar concerns?

羅傑斯：美國現在的所作所為非常糟糕，極度不理智。川普或許認為貿易戰是對美國有好處的，但貿易戰從來就沒有為任何人、任何國家帶來過好處。川普或許不知道這一點，如果他知道，那就是過於自大了。

我痛恨貿易戰。我是美國人，所以很不想看到現在的局面。發動貿易戰完全是不理智的行為。它會傷害到這兩個國家。我希望美國政府能更理智一點。到目前為止，中國的表現都更加克制、謹慎。

現在市場狀況已經很差了，而貿易戰會使它變得更差。我之前說過，如果政客們開始接連犯錯，那麼經濟形勢會越來越差，越來越差！他們是有可能繼續犯錯的。如果川普真的發動貿易戰，在今年晚些時候或者明年，那麼市場走向可能會比我預期的還要糟糕。我說過，這次危機將是我有生以來最糟糕的一次熊市。貿易戰對任何人都是絕對沒有任何好處的。

Rogers: The measures and actions of theUS are extremely poor and irrational. Probably Mr. Trump would think trade warsare good for the US, but trade wars have never been good for anyone and anycountry. Mr. Trump may not know this, and if he does, he is being arrogant.

I hate trade wars. I'm an American, soI'd hate to see the current situation. Waging a trade war is a completelyirrational act. It will hurt both countries. I wish the US government would bemore sensible. So far, China has been more restrained and cautious.

The market conditions are alreadyterrible now, and a trade war would make it even worse. As I mentioned before,if politicians started making mistakes consecutively, the economic situationswould be getting even worse! And it’s highly possible that their mistakes wouldcontinue. If Mr. Trump does start atrade war, later in the year or next year, the market conditions would be evenworse than my expectation. Just like what I said, this crisis would be theworst bear market of my life. Trade wars are absolutely no good for anyone.

《紅周刊》：接下來和您探討一些投資理念的問題。您很節儉，您的好朋友也是著名投資大師約翰·鄧普頓的「摳門」也很出名，節儉是成功的投資人必備的品質嗎？

Weekly on Stocks: You're afrugal person, so as your great friend John Templeton, a famous investmentmaster famous for frugalness. Do you think thrift is a necessary quality forsuccessful investors?

羅傑斯：節儉是幫助成功的一個重要因素。我很早就給我女兒們買了儲蓄罐，並且告訴她們拿到零花錢要存在裡面。我對她們說，錢是用來儲蓄的，而用來投資的錢不應該花掉；如果你已經有了一定的存款，需要在該花的時候再去花。目前為止我的女兒們做的不錯，她們總是把錢存起來。當儲蓄罐裝滿了，我們就把這些錢存到銀行戶頭裡。我一直在教育我的孩子們要懂得儲蓄，並且節儉一些。或許二三十年後你可以問問她們，我這樣做對不對。我知道許多人花的錢比賺的多，負債為生，而很多人的人生、婚姻都因此毀掉了。如果你問我，我會說錢是用來存的，沒有足夠的儲蓄時不要隨意開銷。當然這是我的理念，別人有別人的。

Rogers:Thrift is usually benefit success than anything. One of the first things Ibought for my daughters were piggy banks. I told them that money is to be putinto the piggy bank. I want to teach them that money is to be saved andinvested money is not used to be spent. After you save your money, if you wantto spend the money later, you can. So far, when my daughter get money, theyoften put it in their piggy banks. After the piggy bank is full, we go to thebig bank to put the money in the big bank. I try to teach my children to saveand to be thrifty. You can ask them after 20 or 30 years if I did it right. Iknow many people spend more money than they have, and many lives and marriagesget messed up because they have money problems. Money is to be saved, not to bespent until you have enough, if you ask me. That’s my way, you do it your way.

《紅周刊》：在您看來，訂閱優秀的讀物，定期閱讀對投資很重要。您的很多交易決定也都是從刊物中得到了「靈感」。可以分享一下，您目前最常閱讀的刊物是什麼嗎？

Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, subscribing to excellent readings and reading them regularly isimportant for investing. And many of your trading decisions are also"inspired" from such readings. Could you share with us what’re thepublications that you’re reading most currently?

羅傑斯：我只能讀英文內容，我會讀《金融時報》，以及其他國家的一些報紙。不過現在網上可以看到一切信息，只需要上網就能夠了解全球發生的一切，因此我不再讀報紙了。我會上網了解關於中國、韓國還有俄羅斯的事情；我可以在網上查找我感興趣的任何國家和任何行業的相關訊息。

不過我教我的女兒們，一定要多維度地了解事情。如果想看英文資訊，可以看中國的中國國際電視臺，英國的BBC，韓國的KBS，還有俄羅斯的RT。在網絡上，這些諮詢應有盡有，我告訴我的孩子們，如果想詳盡的了解事情，這些都要看。她們認為我說的對。如果你只看CNN，並認為它向你傳達它的訊息是絕對正確的，但這是不可能的。

所以我們要多從一些渠道了解更全面的信息，去看5個、或者6個媒體的報導，然後再自己思考哪些信息是正確而真實的。這不容易，不過多年來我一直這樣做，現在也在教我的小孩這樣做。媒體發聲時，他們都認為自己是正確的，但沒有人一直正確，所以我們要有自己的判斷。

Rogers:I can only read in English, so I read Financial Times and English newspapersfrom other countries. Now everything is on the internet, so I can read thingsconveniently from all over the world; I don’t read newspapers anymore. I readabout China, Korea and Russia on the internet; I can read about any country andany industry I interested in.

Itry to teach my children that they should read from many sources. If you onlyspeak English, you can watch CGTN from China, BBC from England, RT from Russia,and KBS from Korea. On the internet, you can watch in English many sources ofinformation. I have taught my daughters that they should watch them all. Everyone of them thinks it’s correct. If you only watch CNN, you get information itdeems accurate, but this can’t be always true.

Thus,we need to get information from more sources. We can watch five or six TVnetworks from different countries, then we figure out what is really happeningby ourselves. It’s not easy. I have been doing this for 40 or 50 years. Now I’mtrying to teach my children to do the same. Media convey the information theydeem right. They all think they are right, but they can’t all be right. Weshould figure out what’s right by thinking independently.

《紅周刊》：對於中國的職業投資人，如果想在基本面和價值投資繼續深挖，在學習和提高方面，您的建議是什麼？

Weekly on Stocks: What is your advice to professional investors inChina who want to continue exploration in the general situation and valueinvestment in terms of learning and improvement?

羅傑斯：我會做我剛剛說過的事情，儘可能獲取更多的視角。我很喜歡中國國際電視臺，不過我也知道他們給出的信息不可能一直完全正確，所以我也會去尋找來自其他國家、其他媒體的信息和視角。即使進行過這種全面了解，我還是會做出錯誤決定；但全面了解依然是必要的。在中國，相對不是那麼容易獲取外界信息，但我鼓勵所有投資人都應儘可能獲得更多、更全面的信息和視野。如果你只看CNN的報導，你獲得的理解一定失之準確；如果只看其他任何一個國家的媒體，也都會導致同樣的偏頗；但如果你看的足夠多，那麼你獲得的信息就會幫助你做出一個準確的判斷。

Rogers:As for me, I』ll try to get as many perspectives as I can. I love CGTN, aChinese English language network, but I know their information can’t beaccurate all the time. Thus, I will watch others to get more comprehensiveinformation and more sweeping view from other nations. Even then, I makemistakes. But it’s crucial to try to get as many perspectives as I can. I knowinformation on the network in China is not as open as in some other nations;nonetheless, I would urge all investors to get as many sources of informationand perspectives as they can. If you only watch CNN in America, you would bebiased; if you only watch RT in Russia, or any other media of a nation, youwould be biased, too. However, if you have enough sources of information, youmay get a better judgement on what’s really going on.

《紅周刊》：最後給我們讀者說些您的寄語吧！

Weekly on Stocks: As we’re approaching to the end of the interview,could you please share more with our readers?

羅傑斯：一定要謹慎些。在未來兩三年乃至更長的時間裡，我們的日子都不會太好過，所以要謹慎地對待投資。不要草率地去投資那些你並不了解的領域。如果眼下沒有合適的投資機會，耐心等待，把錢放在銀行裡，這樣更安全。在接下來的幾年裡，會有很多人失去他們的資產，要警惕。

並且保持學習。如果你能保持學習，有足夠的知識來支撐你的行動，你就更有可能在這場危機中堅持下來，甚至有可能賺到錢。在上世紀30年代大危機中，許多人賺到了錢，所以我們也有機會在經濟不景氣的時候賺錢，只要你知道你在做什麼，並且足夠謹慎。一定要謹慎。

並且保持學習。如果你能保持學習，有足夠的知識來支撐你的行動，你就更有可能在這場危機中堅持下來，甚至有可能賺到錢。在上世紀30年代大危機中，許多人賺到了錢，所以我們也有機會在經濟不景氣的時候賺錢，只要你知道你在做什麼，並且足夠謹慎。一定要謹慎。

還有，每個人都應該看《證券市場紅周刊》（笑）。

Rogers:Yes, please be careful of poor investment decisions. We are going to have somedifficult times in the next two or three years, maybe even longer. So please bevery careful about your investments. Do not invest in anything unless you』vegot good knowledge about it. If you can’t find a good opportunity to makeinvestment, just wait; put your money in the bank, because it’s safer. To putyour money in the bank, you won’t lose money, while in the investment market,many people will lose a lot of money in the next few years.

You have to keep learning and becomeknowledgeable, because you』ll probably keep your assets in the crisis, or evenmake more money only if you know what you are doing. In the 1930s, many peoplemade a lot of money despite the Great Depression. So, we can make money in badtimes if we are knowledgeable and cautious enough. Just be careful.

And, one more thing. Everybodyshould watch Weekly on Stocks.(Laugh)

《紅周刊》：再次感謝羅傑斯先生百忙中接受我們《紅周刊》的採訪，我的問題結束了，希望下次有機會可以當面向您請教。也祝您身體健康！

Weekly on Stocks: Thanks againMr. Rogers for accepting the interview with Weekly on Stocks. So much for myquestions. I hope that I can still have the opportunity to have face-to-faceinterview with you like this. And good health to you!

羅傑斯：謝謝，我期待能到中國和你們見面。

Rogers: Thank you, I would liketo see you in person when I’m in China again.

（本刊記者林中、李健、何豔、李沐遙對此文亦有貢獻）