Hello. This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I’m Neil.
大家好。這裡是BBC教學英語的《六分鐘英語》。我是尼爾。
And I'm Sam.
我是薩姆。
In this programme, we』ll be asking looking at some of the many dangers facing humanity, from climate change and global pandemics to asteroid impacts and nuclear war.
在本期節目中，我們將探討人類面臨的一些危險，從氣候變化和全球流行病到小行星撞擊與核戰爭。
We'll be finding out whether human civilisation can survive these risks, and looking at some of the related vocabulary as well.
我們將看看人類文明是否能承受住這些風險，並了解一些相關的詞彙。
Do you really think humans could become extinct and end up as dead as the dodo?
你真的認為人類會滅絕，像渡渡鳥一樣死透了嗎？
Ah, so of course you've heard of the dodo?
啊，所以你一定聽說過渡渡鳥吧？
Yes, dodos were large, metre-high birds which died out in the 1600s after being hunted to extinction by humans.
是的，渡渡鳥是一種1米高的大鳥，在17世紀被人類獵殺至滅絕後消失了。
That's right.
沒錯。
Dodos couldn't fly and weren't very clever.
渡渡鳥不會飛，也不是很聰明。
They didn't hide when sailors with hunting dogs landed on their island.
當水手們帶著獵犬登上它們所在的島嶼時，它們沒有躲藏起來。
The species was hunted so much that within a century, every single bird had died out.
這個物種被獵殺的如此之多，以至於不到一個世紀，它們就都滅絕了。
But do you know which island the dodo was from, Sam?
但是，薩姆，你知道渡渡鳥來自哪個島嗎？
That's my quiz question for today.
那就是我今天的測試問題。
Was it: a) The Galapagos, b) Mauritius, or c) Fiji?
是……a)加拉帕哥斯群島，b)模里西斯，還是c)斐濟？
I』ll guess the Galapagos, Neil, because I know many exotic animals live there.
尼爾，我猜是加拉帕哥斯群島，因為我知道那裡生活著許多奇珍異獸。
By the way, that’s also cheered me up a bit because as humans we are much smarter than the dodo!
順便說一句，那也讓我感到高興，因為作為人類，我們比渡渡鳥聰明多了！
We're far too clever to die out, aren't we?
我們太聰明了，不會滅絕，不是嗎？
I'm not sure I agree, Sam.
我不確定自己是否贊同，薩姆。
Lots of the existential risks - the worst possible things that could happen to humanity, such as nuclear war, global pandemics or rogue artificial intelligence, are human-made.
許多生存風險——人類可能遭遇的最糟糕的事情，如核戰爭、全球流行病或人工智慧異常，都是人為的。
These threats could have catastrophic consequences for human survival in the 21st century.
這些威脅可能在21世紀給人類生存帶來災難性後果。
That's true.
確實如此。
But existential risks don't only threaten the survival of the human species.
但生存風險不僅威脅著人類的生存。
Instead, they could destroy civilisation as we know it, leaving pockets of survivors to struggle on in a post-apocalyptic world.
相反，它們可能會摧毀我們所知的文明，讓一小部分倖存者在末日後的世界裡掙扎求生。
And it wouldn’t be the first time that has happened, as the BBC World Service programme The Inquiry found out.
BBC全球服務節目發現，那種事情並不是第一次發生。
Simon Beard of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge University explains:
劍橋大學生存風險研究中心的西蒙·比爾德進行了解釋：
The historical record suggests that about once every thousand years an event occurs that wipes out about a third of the human population – so in the Middle Ages, this was the Black Death - huge plague that covered Eurasia,
歷史記錄表明，大約每隔幾千年就會發生一個摧毀約三分之一人口的事件——在中世紀時是黑死病——覆蓋亞歐大陸的大瘟疫，
while there was also dramatic global cooling at that time which many people think was related to volcanic eruptions, and about a third of the global population died.
而且當時全球也急劇變冷，許多人認為那和火山爆發有關，全球約三分之一的人口死亡。
So, humanity has been facing these risks throughout history, according to the historical record – the collection of all written and recorded past events concerning the human race.
因此，根據歷史記錄，人類在整個歷史上一直面臨著這些風險——歷史記錄是指書面記錄下來的和人類有關的事件集合。
Yes. Wars and plagues – infectious, epidemic diseases which spread between countries can quickly wipe out – or completely destroy, millions of people.
是的。戰爭和瘟疫——在國家間傳播的傳染性流行病，可以迅速消滅——或完全摧毀數百萬人。
And there's not much we can do to stop disasters like that!
阻止那樣的災難我們無能為力！
True, Sam, but what about individuals who actively work to bring about the end of the world,
沒錯，薩姆，但是那些想要造成世界末日的人呢？
like apocalyptic terrorists, rampage shooters and fundamentalist cults, like those who organised the poisonous gas attack on the Tokyo subway.
比如製造災難的恐怖分子，瘋狂的槍擊者和原教旨主義邪教，比如組織用毒氣襲擊東京地鐵的人。
Those are people who want to end human life on Earth and bring about Doomsday - another word for the final, apocalyptic day of the world’s existence.
那些人想要結束地球上人類的生命，導致世界末日——世界的最後一天，世界的末日的另一種說法。
Right. And things got even scarier in modern times with the invention of nuclear weapons.
是的。在現代，隨著核武器的發明，情況變得更可怕。
During the Cuban Missile Crisis between America and the USSR for example, risk experts estimated a 41% probability that human life would be completely wiped out!
例如，在美蘇之間的古巴飛彈危機期間，風險專家估計人類生命被徹底摧毀的可能性為41%。
Seth Baum of New York's Global Catastrophic Risk Institute explains how human error almost brought about Doomsday:
紐約全球災難風險研究所的塞思·鮑姆解釋了人為因素是如何幾乎導致世界末日的。
There are some ways that you could get to a nuclear war without really intending to,
在沒有真的打算引發核戰爭的情況下有一些方法可能會引發核戰爭，
and probably the biggest example is if you have a false alarm that is mistaken as a nuclear attack,
可能最典型的例子就是當你得到一個誤認為是核襲擊的假警報時，
and there have been a number of, maybe even very serious false alarms over the years,
而且多年來有很多甚至是非常嚴重的假警報，
in which one side or the other genuinely believed that they were under nuclear attack, when in fact they were not at all under nuclear attack.
一方或另一方真的覺得自己要遭到核襲擊，而事實上他們並沒有遭到核襲擊。
One such false alarm - an incorrect warning given so that people wrongly believe something dangerous is about to happen, came about in 1995,
這樣的一個假警報——給出的錯誤警告，讓人們錯誤地相信危險的事情即將發生——發生在1995年，
when the US sent missiles up into the Earth’s atmosphere to study the aurora borealis, the northern lights.
當時美國將飛彈發射到地球大氣層中來研究北極光。
Soviet radars picked up the missiles, thinking they were nuclear warheads and almost retaliated.
蘇聯雷達發現了這些飛彈，認為它們是核飛彈彈頭，差一點進行反擊。
Nuclear Armageddon was only averted by the actions of one clear-thinking Russian general who decided not to push the red button.
一名思路清晰的俄羅斯將軍決定不按下紅色按鈕進行反擊，他的行為避免了核對峙。
Phew! A close shave then!
唷！真驚險啊！
Well, Neil, all this doomongering has made me want to just give it all up and live on a desert island!
好吧，尼爾，所有這種末日言論讓我想放棄一切，去荒島上生活！
Like the dodo eh, Sam?
像渡渡鳥一樣，是嗎，薩姆？
So, which island would that be?
那麼，應該是哪個島呢？
If you remember, today’s quiz question asked where the dodo was from.
如果你還記得，今天的測試問題是渡渡鳥來自哪裡。
I said The Galapagos.
我說是加拉帕哥斯群島。
And I'm afraid to say it was b) Mauritius.
恐怕答案是b)模里西斯。
So, to recap, in this programme we』ve been discussing Doomsday – the final day of life on Earth,
總而言之，在這個節目中，我們一直在討論世界末日——地球上生命的最後一天，
and other existential threats - dangers threatening the survival of humans on the planet.
以及其它生存威脅——威脅到地球上人類生存的危險。
We looked back throughout the historical record - all recorded human history,
我們回顧了所有歷史記錄——所有記載下來的人類歷史，
to see examples of threats which have wiped out, or killed millions of people in the past,
來看看一些關於威脅的例子，它們在過去已經毀掉或殺死了數百萬人，
including wars and plagues which spread epidemic diseases between populations.
這些威脅包括戰爭以及在人口之間傳播流行病的瘟疫。
And we』ve seen how modern dangers, like nuclear war and climate change, further reduce the probability of human survival.
我們已經看到了像核戰爭和氣候變化這樣的現代危險是如何進一步降低人類生存可能性的。
But Sam, it's not all doom and gloom!
但是，薩姆，也並不全是厄運與苦難！
The same scientific intelligence which spilt the atom could also find solutions to our human-made problems in the 21st century,
原子方面的相同科學智慧也可以找到21世紀人為問題的解決方法，
don't you think?
你不這樣認為嗎？
So, the end of the world might be a false alarm – or unfounded warning – after all!
所以，世界末日可能終究是虛驚一場——或毫無根據的警告！
Let's hope we'll all still be here next time for another edition of 6 Minute English.
希望我們下次還會在這裡播報另一期《六分鐘英語》。
Bye for now!
再見了。
Byebye.
再見。
英文、圖片來源：BBC Learning English