2020年4月29日晩上10：30，高善文博士應邀參加美國美中關係全國委員會與北京大學國家發展研究院共同舉辦的中美經濟二軌對話（線上版），並發表演講。原文為英文，我們加注了中文，共參閱。
China's economy under coronavirus
疫情下的中國經濟
Gao Shanwen
高善文
2020-04-28
Good morning and good night.
早安，晚安。
I am honored to take this chance to share some observations concerning China's economy during its fight against the pandemic.
我很榮幸能藉此機會分享與中國抗擊流行病有關的一些看法。
Firstly, as we all know in Q1 China's output growth took an extraordinary plunge never seen before. When compared with the performance during the height of the global financial crisis, the drop in GDP growth rate is four times as big as in the financial tsunami and the industrial output is two times as big.
首先，眾所周知，第一季度中國的產出增長經歷了前所未有的大幅下降。與全球金融危機最嚴重時期的表現相比，國內生產總值增長率的下降幅度是金融海嘯時的4倍，而工業產值的下降是其2倍。
However, the drop in the general price level in Q1 was very modest, and amounted to as little as one fifth of what was recorded in early 2009. The degree of change in inflation rate in Q1 usually corresponds to less than 0.5 percentage rate of output slowdown during normal times.
但是，第一季度總體物價水平的下降幅度很小，僅為2009年初記錄水平的五分之一。第一季度通貨膨脹率的變化程度通常相當於正常情況下產出下降0.5％。
The sharp contrast between output and price level unambiguously indicates that the aggregate supply was disrupted almost as severely as the aggregate demand was shocked, which cast a long shadow over the suggestions to restart and stimulate the economy from the demand side. Without the lift of the widespread lockdown measures, the economy cannot work properly.
產出和價格水平之間的鮮明對比清楚地表明，總供給幾乎與總需求受到衝擊一樣嚴重地中斷，這給從需求側重新啟動和刺激經濟的建議蒙上了陰影。沒有解除廣泛的封鎖措施，經濟將無法正常運轉。
Secondly, if we delve into the details of retail sales and consumer behavior, some important patterns will be laid bare. We may naturally assume that facing the pandemic people have to keep social distance to control for infection peril, but online sales volume for many items also dropped conspicuously, which cannot be easily attributed to infection risks. In fact only food and some other few necessities can manage to keep steady.
其次，如果我們深入研究零售銷售和消費者行為的細節，將揭示一些重要的模式。我們自然可以假設面對疫情，人群必須保持社交距離以控制感染的危險，但是許多物品的在線銷售量也顯著下降，這不容易歸因於感染風險。實際上，只有食物和其他一些必需品才能保持穩定。
At least in the short term people were overwhelmed by fear and panic, and indiscriminately cut back all economic activities except what is absolutely necessary.
至少在短期內，人們因恐懼和恐慌不知所措，不加選擇地削減了所有經濟活動，除非絕對必要。
As time dragged by, panic faded away and people cautiously began to spend again and the economy was spontaneously reopened. However given the lingering infection risk, people learnt to adapt to and differentiate between economic activities, some of which was less risky, and could be done with simple protective measures, like online sales of telecommunication equipments or dinner outside; and some may be of high peril like public gathering and air travel, which had to be delayed to much further future.
隨著時間的流逝，恐慌情緒逐漸消失，人們開始謹慎地重新消費，經濟自發地重新開放。但是，鑑於感染風險持續存在，人們學會了適應和區分經濟活動，其中一些活動的風險較小，可以通過簡單的保護措施來完成，例如電商銷售或在外帶用餐；還有一些可能會面臨高風險，例如公共聚會和航空旅行，這不得不推遲到更遠的將來。
Anecdotal evidence suggested that China's consumers went out of panic and began to open their purse again by early March. The recovery in consumption so far is slowly but steady and may go on for a very long time, until a new balance is reached.
事實證據表明，中國的消費者擺脫了恐慌，於3月初，開始再次打開錢包。到目前為止，消費的恢復是緩慢而穩定的，並且可能會持續很長時間，直到達到新的平衡。
The behavior pattern of panic and adaptation may also apply to government and enterprises to certain degree.
恐慌和適應的行為模式也可能在一定程度上適用於政府和企業。
Thirdly, the coronavirus hit the economy badly. Life for some sectors and some people are hit much harder than others. Unfortunately low income people are particularly vulnerable.
第三，冠狀病毒嚴重打擊了經濟。一些部門和某些人的生命遭受的打擊要比其他部門嚴重得多。不幸的是，低收入人群特別脆弱。
During the past few years employment in the secondary sector has been steadily shrinking, possibly reflecting the ongoing restructuring and upgrade of the manufacturing industries. As a result all newly created jobs are in service sector, which are badly affected by the outbreak of Covid-2019.
在過去幾年中，第二產業的就業人數一直在穩步減少，這可能反映了製造業的不斷調整和升級。結果，所有新創造的工作都屬於服務行業，這受到了新冠病毒疫情爆發嚴重影響。
As of 2018 employment in service sector stood at 350 million, which accounted 47% of the total. Among the biggest employment subsectors are wholesales and retails, hotels and restaurants and etc, which happen to be the biggest casualty of the pandemic.
截至2018年，服務業就業人數為3.5億，佔總數的47％。最大的就業子行業是批發和零售，酒店和飯店等，這恰恰是疫情的最大受害者。
Loss of income and without access to credit may have already forced them to tighten their belt.
收入損失和無法獲得信貸，可能已經迫使他們束緊腰帶（壓縮生活開支）。
And the life for small business could hardly be better.
小型企業幾乎很難改善。
These hardship call for well targeted aid package, which is reversible once the virus is eliminated or put under total control.
這些困難需要有針對性的一攬子援助計劃，可以隨著病毒消除或被完全控制靈活應對。
註：2020年4月29日晩上10：30，高善文博士應邀參加美國美中關係全國委員會與北京大學國家發展研究院共同舉辦的中美經濟二軌對話（線上版），並發表演講。原文為英文，為方便閱讀，我們加注了中文。