ECONOMIST: How America can rid itself of both carbon and blackouts
經濟學人：美國如何擺脫碳排放和停電
This is the moment for an ambitious attempt to deal with climate change
這是應對氣候變化的雄心勃勃的嘗試的時刻
Texas prides itself on being different. Yet it is in the grip of a winter storm that typifies the Snowmageddon-size problems facing energy in America. Although nobody can be sure if this particular freeze is a sign of climate change, the growing frequency of extreme weather across the country is. Texan infrastructure has buckled. The problem is not, as some argue, that Texas has too many renewables. Gas-fired plants and a nuclear reactor were hit, as well as wind turbines. Worse, Texas had too little capacity and its poorly connected grid was unable to import power from elsewhere (see article). Texas shows that America needs both a cleaner grid and a more reliable one.
德州以與眾不同而自豪。然而，它正處於冬季風暴之中，這是美國能源面臨的典型的雪災規模的問題。雖然沒有人能確定這種特殊的冰凍是否是氣候變化的跡象，但全國各地極端天氣的頻率越來越高。德州的基礎設施已經崩潰。正如一些人所說，問題不在於德克薩斯州有太多的可再生能源。燃氣發電廠和一個核反應堆以及風力渦輪機都被擊中。更糟糕的是，德克薩斯州的電力容量太少，其連接不良的電網無法從其他地方進口電力。德克薩斯州表明，美國既需要一個更清潔的電網，也需要一個更可靠的電網。
Plans to overhaul American energy will come before Congress in the next few months. President Joe Biden has said that he wants fossil-fuel emissions from power generation to end by 2035 and the economy to be carbon-neutral by 2050. America is not just the world’s second-largest emitter, but also a source of climate-related policy, technology and, potentially, leadership. What is about to unfold in Washington will set the course in America for the next decade—and quite possibly beyond.
美國能源改革計劃將在未來幾個月提交國會。喬·拜登總統表示，他希望發電產生的化石燃料排放在2035年結束，經濟在2050年實現碳中和。美國不僅是世界第二大排放國，也是氣候相關政策、技術以及潛在領導力的來源。華盛頓即將發生的事情將為美國未來十年——甚至更久——設定方向。
Time is pressing. Neither Mr Biden nor his successors may get a second chance to recast policy on such a scale. Global emissions from fossil fuels and cement production in 2019 were 16% higher than in 2009. It will be even harder to limit climate change to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the global threshold from which America’s target for 2050 comes. To be carbon neutral, the world must curb emissions by 7.6% a year for a decade, a steeper decline than in 2020, when covid-19 cut demand for oil and coal. For America, delaying action to 2030 would nearly double the cost of reaching net zero or, more likely, mean it overshoots its targets.
時間緊迫。拜登先生和他的繼任者都沒有第二次機會在如此大的範圍內重新制定政策。2019年全球化石燃料和水泥生產的排放量比2009年高16%。將氣候變化限制在前工業化水平(美國2050年目標的全球門檻)之上不到2攝氏度將更加困難。為了實現碳中和，世界必須在十年內每年減少7.6%的排放量，這一降幅要比2020年大得多，當時covid-19削減了對石油和煤炭的需求。對美國來說，將行動推遲到2030年將使實現淨零的成本增加近一倍，或者更有可能意味著它超過了目標。
Yet there are grounds for hope. Although the Republican Party is against almost all action, voters are increasingly alarmed by climate change. Two-thirds of them think the federal government is doing too little about it, and that share includes plenty of younger Republicans. Although the fossil-fuel lobby remains powerful, many Republican business donors want more action—partly because asset managers are urging firms to align their strategies with the net-zero world Mr Biden envisions.
然而，還是有希望的。儘管共和黨反對幾乎所有的行動，但選民對氣候變化越來越擔憂。三分之二的人認為聯邦政府在這方面做得太少，其中包括許多年輕的共和黨人。儘管化石燃料遊說團仍然很強大，但許多共和黨商業捐助者希望採取更多行動——部分原因是資產管理公司敦促企業將其戰略與拜登先生設想的淨零世界相一致。
Most encouraging of all, the costs of power from wind and solar have plunged by 70% and 90% over the past decade. Along with cheap gas, this has already helped America decarbonise at an impressive rate, despite Donald Trump’s rolling back of fossil-fuel regulations. Price has not been the only factor; more than half of the states have some sort of clean-energy mandate, a device that Mr Biden wants to introduce on a national scale.
最令人鼓舞的是，在過去的十年裡，風能和太陽能的成本分別下降了70%和90%。除了廉價的天然氣，這已經幫助美國以令人印象深刻的速度脫碳，儘管唐納·川普取消了化石燃料法規。價格並不是唯一的因素；超過一半的州都有某種清潔能源的授權，拜登先生希望在全國範圍內引入這種設備。
This involves a regulatory framework that favours renewable-energy developments and grid connections to hook them up. It will take a lot of extra investment—about $2.5trn in the coming decade, say researchers at Princeton (see Briefing). In a new book, Bill Gates, a billionaire philanthropist, argues that research is needed into a host of areas such as energy storage, advanced nuclear reactors to complement renewables and technologies for clean concrete-making and other activities that are hard to decarbonise (see article). Without these, even if a clean grid is powering electric cars and light trucks, it will displace only around half of emissions.
這涉及到一個有利於可再生能源開發和電網連接的監管框架。普林斯頓大學的研究人員說，這將需要大量的額外投資——在未來十年中大約需要2.5萬億美元簡報).在一本新書中，億萬富翁慈善家比爾·蓋茨認為，需要對許多領域進行研究，如能源儲存、先進的核反應堆，以補充可再生能源和清潔混凝土製造技術，以及其他難以脫碳的活動(見文章).沒有這些，即使一個清潔的電網為電動汽車和輕型卡車提供動力，它也只能替代大約一半的排放。
America is good at innovation, but new ideas need to be deployed at scale, not languish in the lab. One tool is a carbon price which, if it were high enough and if investors believed it would last, would signal what improvements were needed where. But for all its attractions, carbon pricing failed in Congress in 2009. Although many economists and opinion-makers on the right favour it, Republican politicians do not. And even if a carbon price were in place, public-private co-operation would still be needed for America to act as fast as Mr Biden proposes.
美國擅長創新，但新想法需要大規模部署，而不是在實驗室裡被擱置。一個工具是碳價格，如果碳價格足夠高，如果投資者相信它會持續下去，它將表明哪裡需要改進。儘管碳定價很有吸引力，但它在2009年在國會失敗了。儘管許多經濟學家和右翼輿論製造者對此表示支持，但共和黨政客並不支持。即使碳價格到位，美國仍需要公私合作才能像拜登提議的那樣快速行動。
For all those reasons, an ambitious climate-oriented infrastructure bill looks like Mr Biden’s best chance of getting new policy on climate through the Senate. Unfortunately such a plan will be lucky to attract any Republican votes. Yet, if mustering the 60 needed to see off a Senate filibuster is improbable, a plan could be stripped of some measures, including a clean-energy standard, and passed with a simple majority through the parliamentary manoeuvre known as reconciliation. The bill must still be of a scale and ambition that matches America’s challenge.
出於所有這些原因，一項雄心勃勃的以氣候為導向的基礎設施法案似乎是拜登先生在參議院獲得新氣候政策的最佳機會。不幸的是，這樣的計劃將幸運地吸引任何共和黨人的投票。然而，如果召集60人完成參議院阻撓議案是不可能的，一項計劃可以取消一些措施，包括清潔能源標準，並通過被稱為和解的議會策略以簡單多數通過。該法案的規模和雄心必須與美國的挑戰相匹配。
Failure to act would bring big risks. For a start, it would make America less competitive in the new clean-energy economy. China is the dominant producer of solar panels and batteries; it has also invested in foreign mines to secure minerals needed for them. Europe has its own 「green deal」 to boost its clean-energy industries. It plans to tax imports from countries that do not pledge to lower their emissions.
不採取行動會帶來很大的風險。首先，這會降低美國在新的清潔能源經濟中的競爭力。中國是太陽能電池板和電池的主要生產國；它還投資外國礦山，以獲取所需的礦產。歐洲有自己的「綠色協議」來促進其清潔能源產業。它計劃對那些沒有承諾減少排放的國家的進口商品徵稅。
America would also be deprived of global influence over climate. It has direct control over only about 10% of the world’s greenhouse-gas effluvia. If it wants the benefit of a stabler climate—and with it a stabler world economy, stabler geopolitics and much avoided suffering—it needs to influence the other 90%, too. Mr Biden has appointed John Kerry, a former secretary of state, to spearhead that effort (see Lexington). America is to rejoin the Paris agreement on February 19th, making it a full participant in the un conference to be held in Glasgow, in Scotland, in November, when countries will be able to lodge new and more ambitious pledges to cut emissions. If America tables goals and gives evidence that it will back them with domestic policy, it will gain influence. China’s two big development banks have doled out $51bn for foreign coal plants since 2008. America should be part of a push against such subsidies.
美國也將被剝奪對氣候的全球影響力。它只能直接控制世界上10%的溫室氣體排放。如果它想要更穩定的氣候帶來的好處——以及更穩定的世界經濟、更穩定的地緣政治和更少的痛苦——它也需要影響其他90%的國家。拜登先生已經任命前國務卿約翰·克裡領導這項工作列剋星頓).美國將於2月19日重新加入巴黎協定，使其成為巴黎協定的正式參與者united nations的縮略詞會議將於11月在蘇格蘭格拉斯哥舉行，屆時各國將能夠提出新的更雄心勃勃的減排承諾。如果美國提出目標，並拿出證據證明它會用國內政策支持這些目標，它將獲得影響力。自2008年以來，中國兩大開發銀行已向外國煤電廠發放了510億美元貸款。美國應該參與反對此類補貼的努力。
Enough drifting夠漂了Unfortunately, America brings little credibility to action on climate. Mr Trump took pleasure in subverting it, but his country’s poor record precedes him. George W. Bush declined to implement the Kyoto protocol. Congress has not considered serious climate legislation since 2009. Today must be different. There will never be a better chance for Mr Biden to show real ambition. If the blackouts in Texas are any guide, it would not just be the world that would thank him, but Americans, too.
不幸的是，美國在氣候問題上的行動幾乎沒有可信度。川普以顛覆它為樂，但他的國家的不良記錄在他之前。小布希拒絕執行京都議定書。自2009年以來，國會從未考慮過嚴肅的氣候立法。今天一定不一樣。拜登先生將永遠不會有更好的機會展示他真正的雄心壯志。如果德州的停電可以作為參考的話，不僅僅是世界會感謝他，美國人也會。
本文章英文原文來自經濟學人，本人僅提供給大家一個觀察國外文章的平臺，文章內容不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/02/20/how-america-can-rid-itself-of-both-carbon-and-blackouts
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