*本次訪談由華爾街見聞與當代經濟學基金會共同發起，由見聞特約記者——美國WinShore基金的創始人及首席投資官胡剛在斯賓塞教授紐約的住所完成。
在清冷的紐約早晨，斯賓塞談論了眼下最熱切的議題。在上篇裡，我們呈現他所理解的中國經濟未來前景，以及在國際格局重塑的大環境中，像華為這樣的公司，該如何自處。他的建議是：
無論出於什麼原因，有的國家對中國的態度越來越激烈。華為在美國、澳大利亞、紐西蘭甚至可能還有英國都收到了制約，所以華為必須要講清楚，他們在海外發展項目時並不受其他因素控制，而且，華為必須發出可信的信號，證明他們是擁有市場準入權的。這意味著我們現在還處於發展國際合作的早期階段，也是未來的挑戰所在。那些說貿易摩擦終會結束，國際關係將恢復到過去狀態的觀點，我認為是不現實的。
在下半場，他著重談了對川普政策的理解：川普好戰姿態的背後是什麼？他想要和其他人共贏嗎？
斯賓塞也喊話中國朋友：馬雲在杭州的研究院，真的能夠理解經濟數位化嗎？機會在哪裡？挑戰又是什麼？數位化成為經濟增長的未來，中國又該如何與世界分享。
在一個經濟學諾獎得主的眼中，中國，應該怎樣和世界聊一聊。
置身於威脅之下，是學習的最佳途徑。
*本文為《經濟百談 |對話諾獎得主斯賓塞》的下篇，上篇回顧《世界規則已改，是時候明白再也回不去了》
美國從未有過逮捕CFO的先例，有些界限不可逾越
見聞特約記者胡剛：現在讓我們把目光放回美國，您如何看待川普的經濟政策？
Let's come back to the US. What do you think of the Trump’s economics policies? What's your view about?
Spence：喜憂參半。我認為最好的經濟政策就來自於當一群有才華的人聚集在一起，他們對經濟運作方式有著深刻的見解，並持有不同的觀點。考慮到白宮經濟團隊最近的人事變動，川普已經得到了他所需要的這些人，他似乎更喜歡找和他觀點一致的人。
It's mixed. I think economic policy is best done when you have a group of people who are talented, have somewhat different views, have insights into the way the economy works and so on. Given the turnover in the economic team of the White House, Trump has got all of the pieces that he needs. You know, he seems to want to have people to sort of agree with him.
我認為他對貿易的直覺並不像一些人想的那麼壞，至少在貿易方面，他創造了一個機會，使均衡回到有利於美國就業的狀態，儘管它是以一種好戰的姿態出現。
I think his instincts on trade aren't as bad as some people think. There's at least a reasonable chance that he will , until the balance back in favor of working on, although it's delivered with a kind of belligerence.
但是，川普這麼做讓人很不舒服，也讓整個外交界很不舒服。我不喜歡因為公司的不當行為而逮捕別人。比如，在美國有很多金融機構因不當行為而受到指控，他們在這些案件中支付了巨額的罰款，但從未有過逮捕CFO的先例。需要說清楚的是，有些界限是不該逾越的。
You went to put people off and certainly put the diplomatic community off. I’m not a fan of arresting people for the misbehavior of companies. I mean we had a lot of alleged misbehavior by major financial institutions and they've paid very large fines in those cases are settled. But I can't think of a case where we arrested the chief financial officer. So I want to be clear. I think there are boundaries that shouldn't be stepped over.
(獲准保釋後華為CFO在安保陪同下出門)
當然，川普不支持雙贏，所以他不會幫助中國。但我們至少可以改變遊戲規則，讓各方在利益和成本之間取得平衡。另外還有很多可以商榷的問題，比如，我們將如何應對氣候變化的挑戰？如果美國退出全球氣候協定，應該怎麼辦？等等。美國方面，經濟表現相當不錯，但這受益於去年的大規模減稅政策，隨著這一刺激作用的消退，我們普遍預測經濟增長會放慢速度。同時，我們也確實有相當大的主權債務正在積累中。美國不可能永遠保持現在的做法，中國也是一樣。所以我想這是一個好壞參半的政策，它主要得益於相當強勁的經濟增長，至少在川普近兩年的執政期間是這樣，但多數人的觀點是，接下來的幾年裡，他可能會遇到更大的經濟阻力。
He's not a multilateral store, sure. So he's not going to be helpful with that. But at least changing the kind of rules of the game in such a way that, you know, there's a balance of benefits and costs among the parties. There's a lot of open questions. I mean, how really are we going to get on with the climate change challenge if the united states pulls out of it, then and so on. On the American side, the economy is doing pretty well, but it's benefited a lot from a big fiscal stimulus. That's going to wfall off and we may most of the forecast are we're going to slow down and we do have a fairly large pile of sovereign debt building up in the economy. You know, you can't do that forever. I mean that's true in China, and that's true in the united states. So I think it's a mixed record, but it's had the benefit of a pretty strong economy, and it may run into some slightly greater head winds as we go into the next couple of years.
見聞特約記者胡剛：我們知道，全球化和科技浪潮讓10%的精英受益，而後50%的人並沒有得到好處。事實上，日益擴大的貧富差距一直是全球民粹主義的源頭，不僅是美國，在其他國家也是這樣。那麼您如何看待逆全球化？如果說全球化造成了巨大的貧富差距，那麼逆全球化會改變這一點嗎？
You know the globalization or the technology has really benefited the top ten and the bottom fifty have not really benefited anywhere. In fact, wide wealth gap has been the source of populism globally, not only in united states, this is in everywhere. How do you see the deglobalization? If globalization causes a wide any of the wealth gap, does the deglobalization change that?
Spence：不一定，部分原因是技術的影響越來越重要。人工智慧參與了越來越多的經濟活動，甚至在某些自動化的工作上已經取代了人類。這意味著，這些由深度學習算法實現的技術可以讓人們變得更有效率。用醫生來舉例，他們可能需要讀大量的醫學和生物醫學文獻，但如果有了合適的人工智慧助理，它們可以幫助醫生整理、篩選最重要的文件，大大減少實際的工作量。
Not necessarily. It's partly because you have the technology influence and the technology is getting more and more powerful. So with various versions of artificial intelligence, you've increased the scope of activities, if not hold jobs that are susceptible to some version of automation. It's also susceptible to making people much more productive because you have digital assistance, you know, that are enabled by these deep learning algorithms. Take doctors for example, there's a massive literature in medicine and biomedical science that doctors probably should read. But how are they going to do that? With the right kind of digital assistant, you can have somebody sort through it and say 'this week these are the four things you really need to read'.
所以我認為，在這個經濟等式中，我們對科技發展帶來失業的討論已經過多地超過了對科技發展提高經濟生產率的討論。比如，我的助手就是一個計算機系統，它幫助我更有效率，這是一種互補，而不是替代。這也就是我們要做的，雖然我們解決社會不平等的方法不太完美，但我們必須努力朝這方面推進，這也是實施國際合作的一個先決條件。
So I think , the job in the developed countries, the job loss side of this equation, has been talked about more than the productivity increasing. My buddy here, you know, which happens to be a computer system. It’s going make me for more productive and it's more complementary rather than substitute. So I think that's where we're going. My personal view is that there are ways to deal with imperfectly. Admittedly, there are ways to deal with the inequality aspects of the growth patterns we've seen and that you have to get on with doing that is a kind of prerequisite for being able to cooperate internationally.
再舉個例子，法國總統馬克龍提出對汽油增稅，也就是碳排放稅。這個稅負並不是很重，但它引發了大規模的抗議，甚至危害到政府的穩定。當我們處理諸如氣候變化這樣不得不處理的問題時，就會得到這樣的社會反響。「黃背心」們說，他們在月中就把整月的錢都花光了，所以必須先解決這個問題，才能繼續處理一些更長期的具有挑戰性的問題。這意味著我們必須在國民素質上投入更多的成本去進行高質量的培訓和再培訓，必須重新分配收入和財富，這樣人們才可能做出轉變。
So let me give you an example. France president Macron france introduced, a tax or an incremental tax on on gasoline. That was supposed to be a carbon tax. You know, it wasn't a lot, right? It was a mighty growing over time, and it triggered this massive protest, but now threatens the stability of his government. I think if we try to get on with some of the things that are required to deal with, like climate change, we're going get this reaction. We got it from the people I run out of money halfway through the month is what the yellow jackets are saying exactly. You know, we've got to deal with that first before I’m on board dealing with these sort of longer more challenging issues based on scientific forecasts and stuff. Nobody has a perfect, sort of map for that, but it seems pretty clear: you have to invest even more in people over a long period of life. You have to have real and very high quality training and retraining options, for them and other institutions that support it. And you have to redistribute income and wealth so that people have the resources to make these transitions.
(法國總統馬克龍訪問地方城市 遭「黃背心」示威反對)
所以我並不完全悲觀，因為還有很多工作要做，一旦我們做不到，那麼反精英主義、民粹主義都會削弱國際合作與平衡的能力。
So I’m not totally pessimistic, but we've got a lot of work to do. And I think if we don't get it done, we'll continue to see, anti-elitist, you know, anti-established parties, rising nationalism, populism, sometimes undercutting the ability to cooperate trade off.
人們之所以擔心社會保障體系，是因為當它走到極端時會產生負面的刺激。一個平衡的觀點是：社會對每個人負有責任，社會資源應該為個人提供一系列機會從而提高他的生產力；同時，每個人身上也有責任，必須把這些責任具體化，單方面來看這個問題是無意義的。
There's a reason why people thought in social security systems, you know, it carried to an extreme would have adverse effects on incentives and their debates goes on. A balanced view is yes, society owes you, the resources to have reasonably, a reasonable set of opportunities to be productive, to work, to get, to contribute, to be creative and so on. And so I think in designing this, we're going have to kind of flesh these things out, and the one sided versions of it don't really sort of quite passed muster.
總而言之，我不認為有完美的解決收入不平等的方案，但是有很多處理方法，比如在不影響就業的情況下對富人徵稅。貧富差距在全世界都十分嚴重，包括美國。現在必須重新定義社會規則才能改變這一點，但我們未必能做到，因為在我們的政治體系裡，金錢是非常重要的一部分，富人階級是不會贊成重新分配財富的。而無法重新分配財富的代價將是經濟、政治和社會兩極分化進一步加劇，隨後會出現僵局，治理結構不穩定，政策選擇的餘地不多，失去長遠的眼光是致命的。
I think there are not perfect answers, but there are ways to go about this that you can tax wealth, right? Without hurting employment. The wealth inequality in some places, including here, is really quite extreme. Now you have to reset the kind of social contract in order to do it, and it's not clear we're going be able to do it. You know, we have a political system in which money is a very powerful part of the equation. So we may not be able to get there, but I think the cost of not getting there is rising economic, political, and social polarization. And then you get gridlock, you get instability in the governance structures, you get poor policy choices, you lose the long time horizon, and that's fatal.
所以我們應該遵循一個更廣泛的原則：如果想要以合作的方式解決一些問題，首先要做的就是通過價值觀和文化，通過自頂向下和自底向上的努力找到一種方法，使增長模式符合「包容性」的定義，能讓人們對不平等的接受程度達到廣義範圍內的共識。
So I think what we're learning is that a more general principle, you know, that if you want to solve a whole lot of problems in a cooperative manner, the first thing you have to do is find a way to, through values, through culture, through a combination of top down and bottom up efforts. You have to find a way to make these growth patterns meet some definition of inclusive even if people don't agree on exactly how much inequality is okay and not.
見聞特約記者胡剛：也就是說，您認為即使一些國家之間會因此而產生衝突，我們也必須改變增長模式和分配模式？
You mean that even among the countries, there's going to be conflict, we have to change the growth pattern, and we have to probably change the distribution pattern.
Spence：是的，人們現在懷疑存在某種資本主義危機，亞洲正在進行一場關於所謂的西方模式是否會崩潰的討論，這很合理，但我的觀點是，我們也許應該換個方向思考，資本主義從來不是，也不會是市場和私人部門財產之間的運作關係。私人投資從來都不能解決一切問題，總是需要有一個合適的政府來公開對價值作出評估。資本主義本身是兩個體系的結合，我們需要找到一個前進的方向，需要有能力、有想法、有創造力的人才。
Yes. There's some kind of crisis of capitalism. There's a real discussion going on in asia about whether the western so called western model isn't falling apart. That's perfectly reasonable. But my view is that the premise that the start is wrong ,capitalism is not now and never a kind of markets and private sector property. And private investment was never meant to solve all the problems by itself and always had a proper government to make public expression of values and stuff, in the best circstances is working partner.
喊話馬雲：我們真的足夠理解經濟數位化嗎？
見聞特約記者胡剛：中國向前發展還會面臨很多挑戰，如果讓您來選一些想和中國的學者共同探討的問題，您認為什麼話題最令您感興趣？
China is going forward, and there are many challenges and topics to talk about. If you were to look at certain topic that you wanted to really dig deep into it and then had a panel talk with some chinese scholars, what would that topic be and how would you go about it?
Spence：第一，我想和中國的朋友們談談平衡的問題。中國的定位和一些西方國家是不同的。中國的政府仍然擁有巨大的資產負債表，集中持有企業部門的一部分控制權，同時，中國政府也在進行混合所有制的試驗。所以我想知道中國將如何在這兩者間達到平衡：一方面擁有一定程度的社會凝聚力和控制力，以防止私人市場利用信息缺口中的漏洞，另一方面又能充分發揮企業的活力和創新能力。
The first one I pick is i'd wanna talk with my chinese colleagues and friends about this balancing act. China is positioned itself differently from some of the western countries in terms of the role of the government control. You have a government that still has a very big balance sheet. They've chosen to hold that those assets in the form of concentrated ownership of a subset of the corporate sector. Meanwhile they are experimenting around with cross ownership of assets and other things. So what would like to do is sit down with people who thought deeply about this and this balance, what I call balancing act. So the balancing act as you want to have a degree of social cohesion and control and you don't want a bunch of people flying around. On the other hand, you want a dynamic, innovative company because it's pretty.
中國政策制定的特點是非常擅於進行中期修正，所謂的「擅於」並不意味著每次制定政策都是正確的，而指的是可以在錯過預期的目標後將政策移回正確的方向。我認為探尋這種平衡是一個真正的挑戰，我對此很感興趣，因為美國可能也需要開始運用這種框架。
In the system, China's policy making process is pretty good at making, what I call mid course corrections, that we don't get everything right every time, but what they're really good at is responding when they kind of missed the target event and moved it back in the right direction. But I think this balancing act is a real challenge. And I’m interested in it because I think we're going have to get into that business too. But I think this balancing act is a real challenge. And I’m interested in it because I think we're going have to get into that business too.
我所好奇的另一個問題是，馬雲在杭州創辦了一個研究院，致力於推動經濟數位化的研究。我想知道，我們真的能夠理解經濟數位化嗎？機會在哪裡？挑戰又是什麼？研究這個是很正確的，我們現在的所有經濟活動幾乎都建立在數位化平臺的基礎之上，中國在社交媒體、網際網路產業、行動支付和網際網路金融等方面的經驗非常重要，也非常值得拿出來和全世界分享。
The other discussion I would like to have, is Jack Ma starting an academy in hangzhou to promote research on how economies become digital. And and I'm intrested in can we really understand this? You know, what are the opportunities? What are the challenges? And I at the insight, I think is correct, which is all of our economies are starting to be built on digital plan, you know, not platforms in the technical sense, but foundations. I think there's the chinese experience with other social media economy, and mobile payments and stuff is actually pretty important set of experiences to understand and share.
(6月26日羅漢堂在杭州正式成立，羅漢堂是的專門研究人類未來問題的機構，將會深度挖掘面向未來的問題如何更好的服務人類)
像阿里巴巴這樣的平臺有著神奇的、包容性的生產增長模式，比如說，把那些似乎永遠不會開一家像樣店鋪的人們以零售商的身份帶入到經濟中來。有了這樣一家店，就有了更多的可能——南方的一個小鎮成為了中國家具製造中心——這樣一些令人印象深刻的軼事，就是數位技術促進包容性增長的一個很好體現。
And I think they're about to produce, you know some early reports that docent this is that the growth patterns that come out of these relatively open platform standard ecosystems of the type that have developed in China, not just Alibaba and financial, but produce growth patterns that have very impressive inclusive these characteristics. You know bringing people that you know aren't really going to have decent retail stores into the economy. You know making it possible for there's this store this some of this is anecdotes but they're impressive. A little town in the south that becomes one of the furniture making centers in China. This is digital technology in one aspect promoting inclusive growth patterns.
我想討論的第二個問題是，中國的這些經驗和教訓該如何應用到其他國家，特別是發展中國家，因為它們大多不像中國這麼龐大、技術先進、擁有高速的網際網路，有的國家可能也沒有行動支付系統，通過簡訊等方式來進行支付，他們更不會從中發展得到人工智慧。
And the second thing i'd like to know is how what does it take to apply the lessons of this and the opportunities in other countries, especially developing countries. So not all of them are as big and technologically advanced as China. I don't know if you need a mobile payment system where you have relatively high speed internet connection, mobile internet connection. I know there's payment systems that are based on text messages and stuff in other parts of where the technology isn't as advanced the mobile technology, but you probably don't get the artificial intelligence out of that.
所以，中國是否需要雲計算系統？是否知道在某一階段需要多大的容量？以非洲為例，是否可以建立一種公用系統，從而解決一些各個國家自身缺少足夠財力去處理的問題？這些也是我想知道的。
So one of the things I hope comes out of that is that do you need a cloud computing system? Or at what stage with what volume do you need it? Is there an argent, say in africa for pushing these things, but having some general purpose utilities that do some of the things that are probably too expensive for individual countries to do? So I'd like to see it to be part of a discussion of that.
*本文作者華爾街見聞路琰、高姝睿，依據訪談內容編纂而成。
*原《經濟百談》欄目2019年將全新升級為《尖峰對話》，歡迎繼續關注。
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