雙十二剛剛過去，雙旦促銷又要來了。廣大網友躍躍欲試準備薅羊毛，眾多賣家也蓄勢待發想再大賺一筆。一次愉快的購物體驗中，評論區向來是買家和買家雙方看中的焦點。
從2018年起，我國規定電商經營者不得刪除消費者對其平臺內銷售的商品或者提供的服務的評價。買家火眼金睛，希望通過評價以辨真偽，賣家則是談「差評」而色變。近年來，眾賣家為了增加商品的好評率可謂使出了渾身解數，從返現、紅包到賣萌，不一而足。
今年9月末，淘寶個人店鋪評價體系迎來改革，「中差評」替換為「感覺不佳」的標籤， 這讓不少買家無所適從，而個人店主則認為可以保護中小賣家的利益。只是賣家沒高興多久，淘寶又在10月份將「中差評」悄悄恢復。
最新的一項研究結果卻證明，適當的差評可以促進商品銷量？！Really？
Negative reviews boost sales
差評促銷量
Aleksei Smirnov, Assistant Professor, HSE University Faculty of Economic Sciences, and Egor Starkov, Assistant Professor, University of Copenhagen, have constructed a mathematical model
俄羅斯高等經濟研究大學（HSE）經濟科學系助理教授阿列克謝·斯米爾諾夫和哥本哈根大學助理教授葉戈爾·斯卡爾可夫構建了一個數學模型。
that explains why it is advantageous for sellers not to delete negative reviews of their products.
該模型解釋了為什麼賣家不刪除他們商品的負面評論。
A study detailing this conclusion has been accepted for publication in The American Economic Journal: Microeconomics.
一項研究詳述了這個結論，且已被《美國經濟雜誌：微觀經濟學》收稿。
Empirical studies have indicated that consumers are more likely to buy a product with a rating slightly below a perfect one rather than a perfect one.
實證研究表明，消費者更可能購買評分略低於五星好評的商品，而不是五星好評的商品。
Using game theory, the researchers analyzed how negative reviews affect sales.
研究者用遊戲理論分析了負面評論是如何影響銷量的。
The researchers' model, which they presented in their paper "Bad News Turned Good: Reversal under Censorship," involves two sets of participants: sellers, who know the true quality of the products they are selling and can selectively publish reviews
about it,
研究者在《壞消息變為好消息：審查制度下的反轉》一文中展示的模型涉及到兩組參與者：賣家和買家。賣家清楚他們銷售的商品的真實質量，能選擇性地公開評論。
and buyers, who do not know a product's quality and can be categorized as either 'naïve' or 'rational."
買家不清楚商品的質量，可以被分為「輕信」買家和「理性」買家。
Rational buyers use all available information to determine the quality of a product, while naïve buyers tend to take product reviews at face value and do not make any further inference.
理性買家利用一切能搜集到的信息來決定商品的質量，而「輕信」買家則傾向於輕信評論，不做進一步調查。
"If there were only naïve consumers in the market, sellers would leave only perfect reviews, because the naïve consumers believe what they read and there is no reason to disenchant them with negative reviews," Aleksei Smirnov explains.
「如果市場上只有輕信的消費者，賣家就只會留下五星好評，因為輕信的消費者相信他們讀到的信息，沒理由用負面評論讓他們失望。」 阿列克謝·斯米爾諾夫解釋道。
However, in reality there are both naïve and rational consumers in the market, and the situation is as follows.
然而現實中，市場上既有輕信的消費者，也有理性的消費者。這種情況就像下文描述的一樣。
Good reviews are perceived positively by everyone. Bad reviews are bad for the naïve consumers, but for the rational consumers these reviews actually increase their confidence in the quality of a product.
好評會被每個人積極地看待。而差評對輕信的消費者來說是負面的，對理性消費者來說卻實際上增加了產品質量的可信性。
Why? Because, the authors say, every bad review weakens sales among naïve consumers.
為什麼？因為作者說，每條差評都減少了來自輕信消費者的訂單。
Therefore, only a seller of a high quality product will be confident enough to publish it—they can be certain that in the future their product will garner positive feedback, and sales among rational consumers will compensate for any losses among naïve consumers.
因此只有高質量商品的賣家才會有足夠的自信去公開差評—他們確信，在未來，他們的產品會得到積極的反饋，理性消費者的訂單會補償輕信消費者訂單量的減少。
Thus, bad reviews become a positive signal to rational consumers, and, by attracting more rational consumers, sellers boost sales.
因此，差評對理性消費者是積極的信號。通過吸引更多的理性消費者，賣家促進了銷量。
Examples where a seller is not only not shy about negative feedback but, on the contrary, flaunts it, can be found literally on the street.
在街上，確實可以找到這樣的例子：賣家不僅願意展示負面評價，而且還炫耀這一點。例如路旁digitec的廣告牌。
For example, roadside advertising billboards for digitec, the largest electronics retailer in Switzerland, feature poor customer reviews of their products.
這家瑞士最大的電子產品零售商的廣告牌展示了他們產品的差評。
The authors of the study do not have data on how this advertising campaign has affected digitec's profits, but given that the billboards have been around for years, it can be assumed that this marketing move has been quite successful.
此項研究的作者沒有關於此廣告對digitec盈利影響的數據，但是鑑於廣告牌已經存在了很多年了，可以推測，這項營銷策略還是挺成功的。
https://phys.org/news/2020-12-negative-boost-sales.html
[buːst]
v. 使增長；使興旺
We need a big win to boost our confidence.
我們需要大勝一場來增強信心。
[pəˈsiːv]
v.注意到；意識到；察覺到
I perceived a change in his behaviour.
我注意到他舉止有些改變。
[daɪ aʊt]
逐漸消亡; 滅絕; 絕種; （火） 逐漸熄滅; （風等）逐漸停止;
How did the dinosaurs die out?
恐龍是如何滅絕的？
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