在「2020鳳凰網財經峰會」閉幕對話上，2013年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、耶魯大學經濟學教授羅伯特-席勒與上海交通大學上海高級金融學院金融學教授、副院長朱寧就股市、房地產和國際關係等話題展開討論。
值得注意的是，羅伯特·席勒正是朱寧在耶魯大學攻讀金融學博士學位時的導師，這場難得的師徒對話也為觀眾獻上了一場思想的盛宴。
股市：美股處於非理性繁榮狀態現在像極了1929年和2000年「股災」之前
今年年初，美股受疫情影響全球股市暴跌，但是隨後卻出現報復性反彈並多次創造新高。對於美國股市的異常表現，席勒表示，根據「周期調整市盈率」的理論，市場可能已經處於非理性繁榮的狀態。
「在美國歷史上只有幾個時期的股指像現在這麼高，一個是1929年，在經濟大蕭條之前，另一個是2000年，也就是網絡泡沫之前」。席勒還表示，相較於1929年和2000年，當前市場長期利率非常低，所以和歷史數據相比現在的股票市場和債券市場都被高估。
根據席勒的問卷調查，在美國他並不是唯一擔心美股暴跌的人。席勒表示，在他調查問卷中一個問題是美股出現1929年式下跌的概率有多大，在過去半年有非常多投資者表示過針對這個問題的擔心。
「現在的情況和1929年有點類似，那就是大家害怕美股下跌，而抱有這一觀點的投資者比看好美股的投資者更多，在經濟學上有一個預先存在的理論，假設很多人害怕股市暴跌，儘管他們不認為經濟出現問題，但是如果這個想法揮之不去，就有一定概率誘發」席勒說到。
朱寧表示，「歷史上任何一種泡沫的出現都是受新因素的影響，特別是人們以前沒有見過的因素。正如當前美股的V型反彈，相信絕對投資者很長一段時間沒有講過，所以個人經驗的缺失在深刻影響我們的行為」。
此外，朱寧還指出，「今年有一點非常明顯的特點，無論在中國股市還是美國股市散戶的數量在疫情期間都有較大幅度的增長，人們要麼追加投資，要麼被迫採取更多的槓桿或承擔更多的債務」。
房地產：技術和疫情可以讓大城市房價下跌
對於房地產席勒認為，「現在主要的資產類別如股票、債券、房地產都很貴，這反映了一種繁榮」。
席勒表示「曾經人們普遍認為房價是穩定的，而房地產泡沫這個名詞直到21世紀才出現。美國在19世紀八九十年代，有過一次房地產泡沫，但當時報紙上的一篇文章這樣寫道『我們應該管它叫泡沫嗎？不，我更喜歡用繁榮這個詞』。但是現在我們說房地產泡沫，人們擔心房地產泡沫會破滅，尤其現在這種繁榮只出現在大城市」。
對於未來房價，席勒認為隨著新技術的發展，大城市的主導地位受到挑戰，這是樓市的另一個不確定因素。「現在我們可以實現跨大洋交流，我們已經不需要生活在大城市，在家辦公是一種趨勢，我們生活變得更加智能。如果這種趨勢持續，大城市的房價就會下降，因為大家不需要住在大城市了」席勒說到。
席勒還表示，「在大城市要面對擁堵的人群和交通、空氣汙染等問題，之所以選擇大城市是因為生活在這裡，而且大城市還有餐廳、博物館、各種表演等公共設施，但如果因為疫情的原因可能不再享受這些便利，這也會對大城市房價造成影響」。
談金融科技：金融科技正在加劇社會不平等，而這往往有利於極小部分人
對於近期市場討論較多的金融科技，席勒表示，「過去人們認為金融科技正在加劇社會不平等，往往有利於極小部分人，它們是技術先進、發展迅速的企業的一部分，這是對自由企業經濟的一種擔憂，沒有一種理論表示不能出現技術變革，不能從根本上改變收入分配，不能讓人們落伍」。
席勒談到：「在我最新出版的《敘事經濟學》一書中談到技術創新如何引發人們的恐懼。追溯歷史，人們對技術創新的恐懼古已有之，最久遠的可以追溯到公元前4世紀的亞里斯多德，在他的一本書中有一段話『如果機器出現並取代人類工作』。而最近這個故事的主角被重新命名為『人工智慧』。這是新一輪的恐怖故事，金融科技身為這個故事的一部分也參與其中。現在在股票市場上，你不只是在和人交易，你還在和電腦交易，機器在學習你的癖好。如果它們發現你犯了某種錯誤，機器就會去加以利用」。
朱寧則表示「疫情為某些新技術的應用提供了完美的理由，與此同時，可以肯定的是在疫情爆發之後財富分配不平等變得更加嚴重」。
「儘管西方社會在過去幾十年裡一直在努力嘗試，但是我們看到的是收入和財富的不平等愈發嚴重，這就造成了各種各樣的社會問題和政治問題」朱寧說到。
談國際關係：拜登是一個心地善良的人川普大喊大叫看起來很憤怒
談及中美關係與中美貿易，席勒表示，「在川普政府的領導下中美關係變得對立，川普受其顧問彼得-納瓦羅的影響，他曾寫了一本叫《致命中國》的書，內容非常誇張，他們把很多問題歸咎於中國」。
「當不平等變得愈發嚴重，川普他們開始尋求「替罪羊」，那就是墨西哥和中國，墨西哥派遣大量的工人和美國人爭奪工作，而中國出口了太多貨物。但是一直以來，美國很多東西是中國製造，中國的發展促進了美國的繁榮，但是川普政府反其道而行之。」席勒說到。
儘管無法預測拜登未來會有哪些具體政策，但是席勒認為他會比川普好很多。席勒認為「拜登與川普有一個根本區別，拜登是一個心地善良的人，他總是心懷感激，而川普看起來總是很憤怒，他總是拳打腳踢、大喊大叫，一直在生氣，我不認為這對國際關係有好處」。
以下為朱寧及席勒鳳凰網財經峰會對話實錄：
Zhu Ning: Hello, Professor Shiller. It is very good to have you for the Phoenix Annual Finance Summit. And as we all know that we have gone through a very eventful year for 2020. And as we are approaching the end of 2020, I think the audience in China is very curious about your expert views on so many important issues related to global economy, US politics, US-China relationship, and most of all ideas, the pandemic. So, you have been widely regarded as the expert on behavioral finance and on microfinance. So let me start there.
朱寧：您好，席勒教授。非常高興您能來參加鳳凰財經年度峰會。我們大家都知道，2020年是一個多事之秋。在2020年即將結束的時候，我想中國的觀眾都非常好奇，您這樣的專家對全球經濟、美國政治、中美關係，這些重要話題有哪些看法，以及您對這次疫情有什麼看法。您是公認的行為金融學的專家，也是微型金融的專家。我們就從這裡說起吧。
What this year I think is quite eventful in the way that the US stock market dropped by more than 30% earlier this year as a result of the pandemic. But then to many people’s surprises, not only did it come back, it came back with vengeance and has set new records. You are the one who have designed this methodology of cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. And according to your research, you think the US stock market has probably been in bubble or in irrational exuberance for already some time. What's your take on this year’s performance and if you can make some forecast for the coming year?
今年很重要的一個事件是，年初受疫情影響美國股市下跌30%以上。但是後來出乎很多人的意料，股市不但反彈，而且是報復性的反彈，創造了新的股指記錄。您創立了「周期調整市盈率」的理論「。根據您的研究，您認為美國股市可能已經處於泡沫或者非理性繁榮的狀態有一段時間了。您對今年美國股市的表現有什麼看法，對來年又有哪些預測？
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the ratio have become widely quoted on, is this CAPE 『cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio』. For the United States, dated back to 1981, there are only a couple of periods when it's been as high as it is now. One was 1929, just before the Great Depression, and the other was 2000, when there was a major contraction, that was the dot com bubble. Very high level at the market right now. However, we are also in another circumstance right now which is not shared by those two other moments, 1929 or 2000. That is long term interest rates are very low. So, both markets, stock market and bond market were overpriced by historical comparison. And that finds us need to wonder whether there could be a major contraction in the US stock market. It's not the whole world. CAPE ratios in other countries are also high, including countries like China with high exposure to information technology. It’s both a low interest rate boom, it’s also a technology boom. Communication services which tend to be high tech nowadays. We are doing that right now. We are using advanced communication services. So, it's not clear how to compare this with other episodes. A history is like that. It doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. So I don't know right now, where are we going?
席勒：是的，'周期調整市盈率'，簡稱CAPE，這個比率已經被廣泛使用。對於美國來說，追溯到1981年，只有幾個時期的股指像現在這麼高。一個是1929年，在經濟大蕭條之前，另一個是2000年，當時經濟萎縮，也就是網絡泡沫。現在市場的指數非常高。但是，我們現在還處在另外一個情況下，這是1929年和2000年所沒有的，就是長期利率非常低。和歷史數據相比，現在的股票市場和債券市場都被高估了。這就引發了我們國家的思考，美國股市會不會出現跳水。世界上其他國家的情況不都是這樣。其他國家的CAPE比率也很高，包括中國這種信息技術高度發達的國家。這是低利率帶來的繁榮，也是科技的繁榮。現在的通信服務，往往是高科技的，就像我們現在使用的先進的通信服務。所以，無法和歷史上的其他時期做比較。歷史就是這樣，它不是一直在重複的，毫無規律可言。現在我也不知道，未來會如何發展。
However, I am concerned. And I'm not the only person who is concerned. In the United States, I've been doing surveys and investor opinion. And one of the questions is, what is the probability right now of a 1929 style crash? And in that we're seeing in the last six months, record since I started asking that question. In the late 1980s, record had concern about another crash. So in some people's mind, I cannot predict the stock market with great accuracy in short run, but I would say that it's a bit like, we have a preexisting condition. It’s fear of a crash. It's on everyone’s mind. They are dismissing it now, but it’s on their mind. There is some probability of happening. With Covid19, if you have a preexisting condition, you are more likely to get in trouble，with the disease. I think we have a preexisting condition in economics of fear of another crash. It is similar to what we see the year before the crash, 1928, 1929. That fear was well known than most people thought it was good investment. Same thing is happening right now.
但是，我很擔心，而且我不是唯一擔心的人。在美國，我一直在做調查和搜集投資者的意見。其中一個問題是現在出現1929年式崩盤的概率有多大？在這個問題上，在過去的半年裡我收集到的反饋中有非常多的擔心。如同20世紀80年代末，一些人認為，在短期內他不能非常準確的預測股市的情況，但他認為，現在的情況和過去有點相像。有一個同樣預先存在的情況就是害怕崩盤，每個人都在想這個問題。他們現在認為不會發生經濟崩盤，但是這個想法揮之不去。這是有一定發生的概率。對於新冠，如果你認為你可能會感染新冠，那麼你感染的概率就會增加。在經濟學上，有一個預先存在的條件，就是害怕再次崩盤。這和我們國家在崩盤前一年，1928年、1929年看到的情況類似。和大多數人認為現在適宜投資相比，這種恐懼更加眾所周知，同樣的事情現在也在發生。
Zhu Ning: I guess the people who tend to disagree with the concern or the fear would say that this time may be different because we are going through non-traditional monetary policy, quantitative easing and talking about MMT, the modern monetary theory. In certain countries, during certain periods, we are witnessing and experiencing negative interest rate. So do you think the change of monetary framework is going to change the way how we assess asset prices and bubble as a result of that?
朱寧：我認為不同意這種擔憂或恐懼的人會說，這次可能不一樣。因為現在的非傳統性貨幣政策、量化寬鬆政策、和現代貨幣理論、MMT，在某些時期，某些國家正在見證和經歷負利率。所以你認為貨幣體系的變化會不會改變我們對資產價格和經濟泡沫的評估方式？
Robert J. Shiller: Right. Look at the narrative about the monetary framework.
席勒: 是的。關於貨幣體系的看法。
Zhu Ning: You are the author of Narrative Economics. Yes, please.
朱寧：您是《敘事經濟學》的作者。請說。
Robert J. Shiller: There was the financial crisis over 10 years ago. There was a worldwide phenomenon. At that time, central banks around the world did much more aggressive monetary stimulus than people would have thought. And in particularly adopted quantitative easing. So that was an experiment in monetary policy of 10 years ago. Back then that was controversial. There was a lot of talk about a possible new depression of the stories, of backgrounds became suddenly on people's minds, post 1929 stories. Fear of a great depression suddenly exploded. I can document that with various searches. People were concerned about a crash depression in 2007. But now we are even higher, the market is much higher that it was in 2007, especially in the United States, which is the most expensive stock market in the world. But what happened with the drop this year in stock market. The US stock market between February 19th and March 23rd, fall over. And suddenly made a turn around. So you wonder why did people change their opinion so dramatically in such a short?
席勒: 10多年前發生了全球性的金融危機。當時，全世界的央行都實施了比人們想像中更積極的貨幣刺激措施，同時還採取了量化寬鬆的政策。那是10年前貨幣政策的一次實驗，在當時是很有爭議的。有很多關於可能出現新的經濟大蕭條的討論，1929年之後所發生的事情，再次發生的可能性突然出現在人們腦海中，人們對大蕭條的恐懼爆發了。我可以搜索出當時的各種記錄：2007年的時候，人們擔心會出現崩盤式的大蕭條。但是現在指數更高了，市場比2007年還高了很多，特別是美國，美國的股市是全球最高的。但是今年股市下跌是什麼原因，美國股市在2月19日到3月23日之間跌幅超過30%，然後突然間暴漲。所以，你想知道為什麼短短時間內人們的看法轉變如此之大？
It was in crash mode for a month. And suddenly on March 23rd, it turned around. What was happening? You have to say it was something about central bank policy. In the United States, the US federal reserve. And that's the aggressive 2008 stimulus package that involve a lot of new vehicles. That was basically a repeat, maybe more aggressive. I think in a sense, in America, with this aggressive policy, investors thought that this might be the turning point. And then they were reminded that there was a dramatic interest in the stock market starting in the Spring of 2009, just over 10 years ago. And the stock market tripled in less than 10 years to an amazing new high. A lot of people are feeling a sense of regret. I know that the fear of a 1929 style crash was very strong in 2009. So a lot of people got out of the market, only to regret doing that later. The feeling of regret are very motivating. If you made the mistake once, you don’t want to make the same mistake again. So I think people start to come back to the market. There are a lot of people who are in the intermediate state in the March of this year, who thought that 『this might be the time to buy』. But they just hesitated, and the market start going up. Make the mistake again, so they think maybe it's not too late. And then they push the market up to new highs. So that’s the narrative, a narrative of fear of missing out. Other people were saying 『it's time to buy and I didn't do it. Oh, my god! Horrible about that』. Also the term 『vision recovery』 became very popular at that time. And I think it drove the recovery to new heights. People didn't know what to make the Covid19 epidemic. And they didn't know whether they should be out or in of the market. And so there was a rapid learning about epidemics that took place between February and March. And it continued to push the market up after March of 2020.
在過去的一個月美國股市處於崩潰模式，3月23日情況突然轉變了，到底發生了什麼？不得不說這和美國央行政策有關。受美聯儲影響，就像2008年的經濟刺激計劃，刺激汽車行業的發展，其實是同樣的手段，或許更積極罷了。我認為在某種意義上，在美國，這種積極的政策，是投資者認為的可能的轉折點。然後他們想起，從2009年春天開始，10多年前，股市開始迅猛增長，在不到10年的時間裡翻了3倍，創下了驚人的新高，很多人悔之不及。我知道2009年的時候，人們對出現1929年式的崩盤的恐懼非常強烈。所以很多人都退出了市場，卻後悔莫及，後悔的力量是非常強大的。如果你犯過一次錯誤，你不想再犯同樣的錯誤，所以大家開始回歸市場。在今年3月份的時候，很多人搖擺不定，他們認為『現在可能是買入的時候』。但他們只是猶豫了一下，市場就開始漲了，於是又犯了錯誤。然後他們認為現在也許還來得及，然後把市場推上新高，這就是敘事經濟學關於人們害怕錯過的故事。有人說『是時候買了，但我沒買。天哪，我太后悔了'。此外，"復甦的願景"這個詞在那個時候變得非常流行，而這進一步刺激了投資者。人們不知道新冠會如何發展，他們也不知道自己應該出局還是入市。於是在2月到3月，人們迅速了解疫情可能造成的影響，並且在2020年3月後繼續推高市場。
Zhu Ning: So as we have discussed for quite some time, a key ingredient of any bubble is the new things, things that people have not seen before. And as you pointed out, I think the V-shaped recovery, it's definitely something that investors have not seen in a very long time, at least in the US stock market. So is that personal experience or the lack of personal experience that is a deeply modifying our people’s behavior. And speaking of missing out, I think there is another important cause, which is China’s real estate, which is having a similar kind of condition. And people who make jokes about there are probably two biggest bubbles in the whole world right now, one is the US stock market, the other being the Chinese housing market. And you're a leading expert in real estate, we have talked about the housing market in China for quite some time. And I think you have always expressed some concerns with the housing prices in China. But then you also sort of explain that because the economy is growing very fast, many things could be potentially justified. So with the economic growth gradually come to slowdown in China and also with China's household level of indebtedness has increased tremendously in the past five years or so. Also with Shanghai and Shenzhen becoming some of the most expensive cities in housing prices in absolute terms, what’s your updated review about Chinese housing market?
朱寧：正如我們討論過的，任何一種泡沫的出現，都是受新因素的影響，特別是人們以前沒有見過的。而正如你所指出的，V型復甦絕對是投資者在很長一段時間內都沒有看到的，至少在美國股市是這樣。所以還是個人經驗的缺失，在深刻影響我們的行為。而說到缺失，我認為還有一個重要的原因，就是中國的房地產，它也有類似的狀況。人們開玩笑說，現在整個世界上可能有兩個最大的泡沫，一個是美國股市，另一個是中國房地產市場。您是房地產領域的權威專家，我們也多次談論過中國的房地產市場，而且您一直對中國的房價表示有一些擔憂。但是您也說過，因為中國經濟增長非常快，很多東西都有可能是合理的。隨著中國的經濟增長逐漸放緩，中國家庭的資產負債水平在過去五年多的時間裡有了很大的提高。同時上海和深圳成為房價絕對值最高的一些城市，您對中國的房地產市場有什麼最新的評價？
Robert J. Shiller: Oh, that's a big question and not necessarily the world's authority on Chinese housing market. It's a funny situation that we see in the world today. We are all asset classes. The major assets, stocks, bonds and housing are all expensive right now. That reflects a sort of euphoria. But it's tinged with fear. A fear that this might be a harbinger of hard times to come. So people are willing to buy at high prices. That’s unusual situation. Real estate seems to be developing a bubble. Much more happened in the past. The prevailing view among economists is that housing prices are driven by construction class. There is so much land, even in China or the US, that is not that expensive. So I can build a house for you if it isn't in Beijing or Shenzhen. I can build the house for you really cheaply and that was a prevailing view that home prices are stable. And the word 『housing bubble』 didn’t even come into our vocabulary until the 21st century. They didn't even talk about those terms. I can search for that now with digitized text. There was a housing bubble in the United States in the 1890s, 1880s and I found the newspaper article with someone that writing 『Should we call this a bubble?』 And he said, 『No, I like the term boom better because boom doesn't have the connotation that it's going to burst』. So they had housing boomsand they didn't have housing bubbles. But now we've got a new narrative that makes people worry that it might crack down and especially it’s a big city boom. It's not in the countryside so much, although maybe it may also be there. But right now the dominance of big cities is question with new technology. And this is another source of uncertainty about the housing market. Right now we are communicating across oceans. We don't need to live in big cities so much anymore. The question is will you work at home? I think, gradually grow now. And we live more electronically. We have our friends, meetings, meetings with their friends electronically. In that case, it sounds like big city home prices will fall if people don’t need to live there anymore. You want to fight crowds and traffic in the big city and air pollution and all the big city problems. You are attracted to big cities because of events there, because of things like restaurants, or museums, or shows. But if you're reconsidering, I don't want to do those things so much because of Covid19. That also harms big cities. I don't know where that narrative is going. There could be drops in the relative price of big city housing. We have to see how it places out, how it works at home, work at distance. Maybe your future is living in some beautiful rural place. And nonetheless not sacrificing one's career in doing that. Is he getting more international? It seems like, I have friends all over the world now. You don't have to be talking to your neighbors. You can ignore your neighbors and have friends elsewhere.
席勒: 這是一個很大的話題。我對中國房地產市場的看法也不一定權威，這是我們大家看到世界上一個有趣的情況。現在主要的資產類別，股票、債券、房地產都很貴，這反映了一種繁榮，但它又帶有害怕的色彩，這是擔心困難時期可能到來的預兆。所以人們願意以高價買入，這種情況不同尋常。房地產泡沫似乎正在形成，過去有很多例子，經濟學家普遍認為，房價是由建築推動的。有那麼多土地，即便是在中國或美國，也沒有那麼貴。如果不是在北京或者深圳，我可以以很便宜的價格建房。曾經人們普遍認為房價是穩定的，而 "房地產泡沫 "這個名詞直到21世紀才出現在我們的詞彙中，之前從來沒有出現過。我現在就可以查一下，美國在19世紀八九十年代，有過一次房地產泡沫。報紙上的一篇文章這樣寫道：『我們應該管它叫泡沫嗎? 不，我更喜歡用繁榮這個詞，因為繁榮沒有暗含破滅的意思'。所以他們叫房地產繁榮，而不是房地產泡沫。但是現在我們說房地產泡沫，人們擔心房地產泡沫會破滅，尤其現在這種繁重只出現在大城市。雖然在農村可能也會出現，但是不多。現在隨著新技術的發展，大城市的主導地位受到挑戰，而這也是樓市的另一個不確定因素。現在我們是跨大洋在交流，我們已經不需要生活在大城市。問題是我們是否可以在家辦公，我想這是一種趨勢，而且我們的生活會變得更加智能。我們在線上見面、開會，和朋友在線上見面。如果是這樣的話，大城市的房價就會下降，因為大家不需要住在大城市了。在大城市，你還要面對擁堵的人群和交通，還有空氣汙染和所有的城市問題。你選擇住在大城市，是因為那裡的活動，那裡的餐廳、博物館或各種表演等等。但如果因為疫情的原因，你不再享受這些便利，就會對大城市的房價造成影響。我不知道人們對此會作何反應，大城市住房的價格可能會相對有所下降。這要看事情如何發展，人們在家如何工作，如何遠距離工作，也許未來你會住在某個美麗的鄉村。儘管如此也不會因此而犧牲自己的事業，我們是不是越來越國際化了？現在我的朋友遍布世界各地，你不必和你的鄰居說話，你可以忽略你的鄰居，在其他地方交朋友。
Zhu Ning: New technology. I think it's not just changing the way how people do business or live their lives. Finance has been heavily influenced by the development of modern technologies. I think in China probably a very booming area in the past few years so called Fintech or Techfin, the hybrid of information technology with traditional financial services were actually the emergence of using modern technology, trying to fill the gaps that's been left by traditional finance. And I think you have talk about this topic at length in your book, New Financial Order. And you have been a strong advocate for trying to use modern technology or financial technology, trying to make financial services available to everyone and trying to help everyone who services. But then I think a big event in China was, you probably have heard that from news is, the IPO of Ant Technology, which is the renamed of Ant Financial was stopped by surprise. Because of concerns with antitrust, or concern with the booming of their loan business without proper regulation. And what's your comment on what's the boundary, or what's the balance between innovation, or Fintech and regulation, and consumer welfare.
朱寧：新技術。我認為它不僅僅改變了人們做生意或生活的方式，金融已經深受現代科技發展的影響。在中國，過去幾年裡一個蓬勃發展的領域，叫金融科技或者科技金融，是信息技術與傳統金融服務的混合體，其實就是利用現代科技的出現，試圖填補傳統金融留下的空白。而您在《金融新秩序》一書中，已經詳細地談到了這個話題，而且您一直大力提倡使用現代科技或者金融科技，讓每個人都能享受到金融服務，幫助每一個它所服務的人。但是後來在中國發生了一件大事，您可能在新聞上看到螞蟻科技的IPO，也就是原名螞蟻金融的IPO被突然叫停。因為出於對反壟斷的問題的擔憂，以及他們「過於「蓬勃發展的貸款業務沒有得到適當的監管。您怎麼評價創新，或者說金融科技和監管，以及保障消費者福利之間的界限，或者說平衡點是什麼。
Robert J. Shiller: You know there is a narrative that Fintech is adding to inequality. And that tends to favor a very tiny fraction of the population, who become a part of an enterprise that is technologically advanced and rapidly growing. It could be right. This is a concern about free enterprise economy that there is nothing in the theory that says there can't be a technological change that would fundamentally alter the distribution of income and leave people behind. I talked about it in my latest book Narrative Economics about how technological innovations awaken fears. So I tried to trace back how long go ahead have people been worrying about technological innovation. And the furthest back, I can really trace it was Aristotle in the 4th century BC. There is a paragraph on one of his books saying that『if machines come along and replace jobs』. I think is the example of if weaving is done by a machine instead of by hand, that will run the risk of workers becoming useless in fabrics. So this idea has been around a long, long time. I called one of my perennial narratives. But it's been especially strong in the last couple of hundred years as industrial revolution took place. It was particularly important in the 19th century when machines became available that would replace farm labor and the percent of the population, who is engaged in farming, a tiny amount, I think in the United States is around 2% of the working population does farming because machines have taken it over. And more recently, the story has become renamed with the term 『Artificial Intelligence』. And this is a newly scary story. Fintech is right there up front as part of this story. Now when you're in the stock market, you're not trading with just people, you are trading with computers. A machine learning about your quirks. If they discover that you make some kind of mistake, the machine will go after you and exploit you. So this is a fear that is on people's minds continuously for decades now with artificial intelligence. And it has the potential to explode again and do another epidemic of fear. This epidemic right now is supportive of the stock market. Because people like to buy tech stocks. And it makes them feel that they may be inadequate to participate directly in the technology revolution.
席勒：你知道有一種說法，金融科技正在加劇社會不平等，而這往往有利於極小部分人。他們是技術先進、發展迅速的企業的一部分，這可能是對的。這是對自由企業經濟的一種擔憂，沒有一種理論表示不能出現技術變革，不能從根本上改變收入分配，不能讓人們落伍。我在最新出版的《敘事經濟學》一書中談到技術創新如何引發人們的恐懼。追溯歷史，人們對技術創新的恐懼古已有之。最久遠的，可以追溯到公元前4世紀的亞里斯多德。在他的一本書中，有一段話說："如果機器出現並取代了工作"。我想是這樣的一個例子，如果機器取代手工織布，那編織工人就會變得無用，所以這個想法已經存在很久很久了。這種擔憂一直存在，但在過去的幾百年裡，隨著工業革命的發生，這種擔憂越發強烈。特別是在19世紀，機器開始用來取代手工農業勞動。很少的一部分勞動人口，現在美國只有大約2％的勞動人口從事農業工作，這是因為這些工作已經被機器接管。而最近，這個故事的主角被重新命名為 "人工智慧"。這是新一輪的恐怖故事。金融科技身為這個故事的一部分，也參與其中。現在，在股票市場上，你不只是在和人交易，你還在和電腦交易，機器在學習你的癖好。如果他們發現你犯了某種錯誤，機器就會去加以利用。所以這幾十年來，人們對人工智慧的恐懼日益增強。而且它有可能再次爆發，成為一種流行。現在疫情促進了股市的投資，人們開始投資科技股，這是他們間接參與科技革命的方式。
Zhu Ning: Worth to use certain technology during this pandemic, so providing perfect justification.
朱寧：疫情期間，某些技術的使用是值得的，提供了完美的理由。
Robert J. Shiller: Right. Both US and China have a strong technology sector. This is an important factor in the stock market. But that doesn't explain the housing boom. It’s a little bit difficult. I think that is a generalized fear that make people want to put down roots, have a nice home, worried they will get out of rich for them.
席勒: 是的。美國和中國都有強大的科技行業，這是股市的一個重要因素。但這並不能解釋房地產市場的繁榮，這有點困難。我認為這是一種普遍的恐懼心理，讓人們想紮下根來有一個好的房子，自己會因此而富起來。
Zhu Ning: Talking about the poor and the rich, I think one thing is probably close to certain, that is the inequality in wealth distribution has become even worse over the pandemic. I think that's probably the case in China and the US.
朱寧:說到窮人和富人，我想有一件事是可以肯定的。就是在疫情爆發後，財富分配的不平等變得更加嚴重了。我認為中國和美國的情況都是這樣。
Robert J. Shiller: Right. The pain of suffering in the epidemic is related to your economic status. If you can't afford to pay for deliveries, or if you can't afford to pay extra health bills. You are in trouble. You might be living in crowded conditions where there is too many people around so you can't isolate.
席勒:沒錯。應對疫情的能力與一個人的經濟地位有關。如果一個人付不起外送費用，或者一個人付不起額外的醫療費用，這個人有麻煩了。他可能生活在人群密集的環境中，周圍有很多人無法做到隔離。
Zhu Ning: I know in your book New Financial Order, you have come up with financial innovation trying to reduce the income or wealth inequality. But then I think the west society have been trying to do this for the past few decades, but as we have witness, I think the income and wealth inequality have become worse. And that's creating all sorts of social and political problems. And especially coupled with the pandemics. What would you recommend if you have something that governments or the policy makers trying to consider, trying to solve, or at least alleviate this problem of income inequality?
朱寧：我知道在你的《金融新秩序》一書中，你提出了金融創新，試圖減少收入或財富的不平等。但是我認為西方社會在過去幾十年裡一直在努力嘗試，但是我們看到的是收入和財富的不平等愈發嚴重，這就造成了各種各樣的社會問題和政治問題。尤其再加上疫情的影響，你對政府，或者政策制定者有什麼建議，如何解決，或至少減輕收入不平等的問題？
Robert J. Shiller: I wish I were more of a politician. I have written books and relieving these things. There's a lot of different aspects to it. For example, a lot of people worry about housing. And they are following the housing market with apprehension. So there could be contracts that protect them against lose. We actually work with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to create a futures market for single family homes. This aggregated by regions. This might become a new form of gambling playing in the futures market. But it hasn't. It's not a big success. People are not used to hedging their risks in the housing market. Another thing is that the risk of livelihoods are not really managed by modern financial or insurance technology. So I was thinking, in the futuristic term, I’m not limited by what is already been done. I was thinking of institutions that would provide home equity insurance against collapses in the housing market. Or new kinds of mortgages that would protect people against changes in housing prices. This is part of the indebtedness we've already mentioned. People borrow a lot of money to buy a house, and the loan is not contingent on home prices. So if home prices drop, there's an economic contraction. You might find it difficult in default. That's what happened in the 2009 crisis. There were mortgage default. So you think it would be more creative thinking. But I think about how to change the mortgage. But that's not something that happens fast, unfortunately in history. There has been the so called shared appreciation mortgages that we tried out over the last 20 years that would take some of the risk of home prices, but they haven’t flourished. I think that there could be more general insurance and livelihood insurance that protect you against. It should be the same spirit that we do for entrepreneurship. Inventions could apply to individual entrepreneurship. You could insure a few. They start to see this. You have companies who teach you computer skills. And you don’t pay them until later. And if you don't get a job as a computer expert, your tuition is waived. This is an interesting development.
席勒：我也希望我是一個政治家。我的書裡寫到如何緩解貧富差距，可以有很多不同的舉措。比如說，很多人擔心的住房問題。人們懷著忐忑的心情關注著房市，所以可以有一些合同保護他們不受損失。其實我和芝加哥商品交易所有合作，建立了一個按地區分部的獨棟住宅的期貨市場。這可能會成為期貨市場上的一種新玩法，但它並沒有成功。人們不習慣於在房地產市場對衝風險。另外，民生的風險沒有真正的用現代金融或者保險技術來管理，所以我在想，未來有可能的話，不局限於現在已經做的事情，可以有機構提供房屋資產保險防止房地產市場崩盤。或者新型抵押貸款，保護人們不受房價變化的影響。這就是我們國家提到的資產負債的一部分。人們借了很多錢去買房子，而貸款是不以房價波動而變化的。如果房價下跌，就會出現經濟萎縮，人們很難不違約。2009年的經濟危機就是這樣，出現了房貸違約，所以需要有更多的創新思維。我想的是如何改變抵押貸款，但這不是馬上就能做到的，歷史上也是一樣。在過去的20年裡，我們一直在嘗試所謂的共享增值抵押貸款，可以承擔一些房價的風險，但是它們並沒有蓬勃發展。我認為可以多一些一般性的保險和民生保險，保護人們的利益，這和我們對創業的態度是一樣的。發明可以用於個人創業，人們可以多重保險。現在已經有類似的創新，有的公司教人們電腦技術，之後才付費。如果沒有找到計算機相關的工作，學費就免了，這是一個有趣的發展。
Zhu Ning: The imbedded option.
朱寧：嵌入式的選項。
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, I think that these things tend to grow. I think that career insurance is really an important thing that would make people be more willing to take risks with their careers. Right now a lot of people all go for the same MBA, Masters of Business Administration, which is a good thing, by the way.
席勒：是的，我認為這些東西會越來越多。我認為職業保險真是一個很重要的東西，會讓人們更願意為自己的職業發展承擔風險。現在很多人都去讀MBA，工商管理碩士，這是好事。
Zhu Ning: By the way, I have been a Professor before.
朱寧：對了，我以前當過MBA講師。
Robert J. Shiller: There is a sense that finance jobs are not as lucrative as it used to be. Commissions are coming down. So it's hard to make money in the traditional way in finance. So I think we could improve our institutions and gradually we are, things are happening. We will make our risk management better. And risk management is critical, saying Covid19 is substantially evolved with our economic fortunes. And the spread of that disease is higher in poor sections. So we have to. It is a big problem, but we don't talk much to epidemiologist as economist. If you ask me to make a forecast now, I feel kind of helpless cause I’m not an epidemiologist. That's a specialty that economists don’t share.
席勒:現在的感覺是金融業的工作不像以前那麼賺錢了。佣金在下降，所以很難用金融的傳統方式賺錢。我認為我們需要改善制度，而這些改變正在逐漸發生。我們國家需要加強風險管理，風險管理至關重要，疫情在很大程度上是受經濟環境影響的。這種疾病在貧困地區的傳播率更高，所以我們必須做出改變，這是個大問題。但作為經濟學家，我和流行病學家溝通不多。如果你讓我現在做出預測，我覺得有點困難，因為我不是流行病學家，這不是經濟學家的專長。
Zhu Ning: Right, and this is something I want to ask but probably you have thought about it. You forecast about how quickly the virous will kick in and keep the pandemic situation under control given the vaccines.
朱寧:對，這是我想問的問題，不過你可能也預料到了。你預測病毒會以多快的速度爆發，並在疫苗的幫助下控制疫情？
Robert J. Shiller: Well, that has been an important boost to the world stock market. Because people think long term. They've been trained to do that. And they think they going to get a vaccine, and this whole thing will disappear. So why shouldn’t I buy a home for a few years in the stock market? It seems inevitable. With our learning experience, the drop in February and March of this year in stock prices. Especially in the West, which haven’t had a SARS epidemic, they are not used to wearing face masks. They are embarrassed to go out public with this funny mask on. So they don't do it. But they had to learn that there are pandemic, and they do end. In past pandemic, stock markets haven’t reacted that much. In 1918, there was a worldwide influenza epidemic. It did create a recession, but only a mild recession. And you don't see it very much in stock. When I look at the US stock market in 1918, it ended up lower but not a crash. But by 1920, it was very low.
席勒:疫情對全球股市來說是一個重要的推動。因為人們總是著眼長期，我們就是被這樣訓練的。人們認為總會有疫苗，疫情就會消失。那麼我為什麼不可以在股票市場上投資呢? 這似乎不可避免。根據我們的經驗，今年2月和3月股價下跌，特別是在沒有經歷過SARS疫情的西方國家，人們不習慣戴口罩。他們認為戴著口罩出現在公共場合非常滑稽，所以他們不願意戴口罩。但他們必須知道，疫情正在蔓延。在過去的流感大流行中，股市的反應沒有那麼強烈。1918年，世界範圍內爆發了流行性感冒。它確實造成了經濟衰退，但是非常輕微，股票市場的反應也不大。當我回顧1918年的美國股市時，它雖然有所下跌，但沒有崩盤。但到了1920年，股市變得非常低迷。
Zhu Ning: Afterwards, big run up before the greatest depression, they triggered people’s reaction after the influenza in 1918.
朱寧：市場反應滯後，大蕭條之前經濟大漲，1918年流感延遲引發了市場反應。
Robert J. Shiller: The stock market boom began after the influenza epidemic in past. And so is the new world with optimistic sense. You can tell story about the roaring twenties and high appreciation of stock market over that period.
席勒：過去，流感疫情發生後股市開始繁榮。現在，人們也是同樣的樂觀，如同轟轟烈烈的20年代股市市值飆升高升值時候。
Zhu Ning: But one thing was very clear this year, both in China and the US, the number of retail investors have increased by wide margin during the course of the pandemics. Do you think that's because of the fear of missing out? Or it's because of the subsidies given out from the government, or because people were so bored quarantine at home.
朱寧：但今年有一點非常明顯，無論是在中國還是美國，散戶的數量在疫情期間都有較大幅度的增長。你覺得是因為怕錯過時機嗎，還是因為政府發放的補貼？或者是因為人們隔離在家太無聊了？
Robert J. Shiller: This is all part of my theory. I』ve noticed personally. I have a financial markets free course online. And my number of students soared during the quarantine period. I’m getting emails from some of my students, there is nothing to do. And the financial markets are wild. This is time to learn about finance. I still think it's a good career to go into, if you like that kind of thing. Some of the best careers are oversubscribed, like neuroscientists. That’s an exciting field. When I visited a neuroscience conference, someone said to me, 『this is a really exciting field, but the problem is too many young people who are going to it』. There aren’t enough jobs for researches in neuroscience.
席勒: 我理論中也有講到這些。我也注意到了，我在網上有一個金融市場的免費課程，而我的學生數量在隔離期間猛增。我收到一些學生發來的郵件，他們在家無所事事。而現在的金融市場表現瘋狂，這正是學習金融知識的時候。我還是認為這是一個很好的職業，如果你喜歡這些東西，有些行業已經飽和，比如神經科學家，這是一個令人興奮的領域。有一次我參加一個神經科學會議，有人對我說，『這是一個非常令人興奮的領域，但問題是這個領域的年輕人太多'，而神經科學的研究工作崗位沒有那麼多。
Zhu Ning: Also talking about investment for education or just investment itself. It seems that people are either more interest in or are forced to take out more leverage or more debt. The level of leverage has increased tremendously considerably this year for most countries. And China was no exception. I think the national level of a better GDP ratio increased by about 40 percentage points, which make China one of the most heavily indebted country in the world, probably next to Japan. There are very diverging views on this topic. Some feel that this is potential systemic risk to China's economy going forward, whereas others feel that many of debt were used for infrastructure, for technology innovation. And so that should be sustainable growth. Could you share some of your insights about this topic?
朱寧：說到教育投資，或者說投資本身。人們要麼追加投資，要麼被迫採取更多的槓桿或承擔更多的債務。今年大多數國家的槓桿率水平都有很大的提高，中國也不例外。我認為國家層面，表現比較好的GDP佔比增加了40個百分點左右，這使得中國成為世界上負債最重的國家之一，可能僅次於日本。對於這個問題，大家的看法分作兩極。有的人認為這是中國經濟未來潛在的系統性風險；而有的人則認為這些債務是用於投資基礎設施、技術創新的，所以增長是可持續的。您能不能分享一下您對這個話題的一些看法？
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the rise of debt was also a very important concern in 1929. People were buying stocks on margin before the 1929 crash. You could get a loan then to buy a 90% of the value of your stock market investment. And there was a lot of talk about. I've done searches about that. In 1929, when the market dropped in one day, people thought the end is near. That indebtedness narrative became very strong. So it’s with us again today. But I think, again, it is kind of preexisting condition. We are a little bit fear for this situation. But nobody can prove that it's going to result in a crash. And even if it does, people will think it will come backup. But I think it's a preexisting condition in the sense that if something else hits the market. Then people will think that it's maybe the indebtedness did it and markets will come down. So that is a concern.
席勒：是的，債務的上升在1929年也是一個非常嚴重的問題。在1929年股災之前，人們都是用保證金購買股票。人們可以用貸款購買90%的股票投資價值，當時就有很多爭議。我做過相關調查，在1929年，當股票在一天內暴跌時，人們認為末日即將來臨。人們對負債的恐懼非常強烈。今天它又出現了。但是我覺得，這只是一種先決條件，我們對於這種情況是有點恐懼的。但是沒有人能夠證明，它一定會導致崩盤。而且即使崩盤，股市也會重啟。但是，如果有其他因素衝擊市場，這是一個既存條件。那麼人們就會認為可能是負債導致的股票下跌。所以這是一種擔憂。
Zhu Ning: Probably my last question for you today is about the important topic of US China relationship. With the two largest economies, the two largest countries in the world and with a new election results, and a new president coming into office in a few months, many were hopeful that the relationship between US and China will probably improve in the next few years. And a specific area that's concerning Chinese or Chinese companies is the recent investigation on the possibility of banning Chinese companies listing their shares in the US if certain requirements were not met? I think I probably know your political views all along going forward. What do you think the narrative would become in the US China relationship and also the trade tension, and also the economic, the collaboration in economy and in technology, and in certain other areas such as national security.
朱寧：我今天的最後一個問題是關於中美關係這個重要議題。中美是世界上最大的兩個經濟體，最大的兩個國家，而且隨著新的選舉結果的產生，還有幾個月，新的總統即將上任，很多人都希望未來幾年中美關係可能會有所改善。最近發生的一些關於中國人或者中國企業的調查，如果不符合某些要求，可能會禁止中國企業在美國上市？我想我大概知道您一直以來的政治觀點。您認為中美關係中，中美的貿易緊張，還有中美經濟，中美經濟和技術的合作，還有其他某些領域，比如說國家安全，會有什麼樣的變化？
Robert J. Shiller: It's unfortunate that there is antagonist under the Trump administration, and the antagonist relation with China that develop. I have long thought China’s development is benefiting the world, and not being a problem. But Donald Trump took one of his advisers Peter Navarro, who wrote a book called Death by China. I thought it was really over the top. I looked at the book. It was blaming China for all of our mortalities. So I guess when people are worried inequality is widening. They want to see someone to blame for. And it was both Mexico and China that got a lot of blame. Mexico for sending a lot of workers over, competing for your job, and China for sending a lot of goods over. It is remarkable how many things we have that are from China, is all the time. Our prosperity has been developed by China. But the narrative reacted against that. I think Biden would be much better than Trump. I don't know. I can't predict what he will do. But there is a fundamental difference. Biden is a kindhearted man who is effusive in his human settlement. And whereas Trump seem to be angry. He punches, shouts, and he is angry all the time. I don’t think that’s good for international relations. I am hoping for a better, where we could partner together more. And someone could live in China and work in US. Or the other way around. All those things could happen. I’m not optimistic for the stock market of the world. (phone interfere)
席勒：很不幸，在川普政府的領導下，中美關係變得對立。我一直認為中國的發展是造福世界的，而不是製造問題。但是川普受其顧問彼得-納瓦羅的影響，這個人寫了一本書名為《致命中國》，裡面的內容太誇張了。我看了這本書，它把很多原因都歸咎於中國。當不平等變得愈發嚴重，他們開始尋求「替罪羊」，那就是墨西哥和中國。墨西哥派遣了大量的工人，和美國人爭奪工作，而中國出口了太多貨物。一直以來，我們用的很多東西是中國製造，這很了不起。中國的發展促進了我們的繁榮，但是川普政府反其道而行之。我認為拜登會比川普好很多，我不確定。我無法預測未來他會做什麼，但有一個根本的區別。拜登是一個心地善良的人，他心懷感激。而川普看起來總是很憤怒，他總是拳打腳踢，大喊大叫，一直在生氣，我不認為這對國際關係有好處。我希望有一個更好的發展，我們可以有更多的合作。有人可以住在中國，在美國工作；或者反過來。所有這些事情都可能發生，儘管我對世界股市並不樂觀。
Zhu Ning: And do you have anything else you want to say to the Chinese audience for the upcoming 2021? I know you are optimistic about US China relationship, less so about US stock market?
朱寧：對於即將到來的2021年，您還有什麼想對中國觀眾說的嗎？我知道您對中美關係比較樂觀，對美國股市不太樂觀？
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the US stock market is not horrible compared to the bond market. We have 『excess KPO』, which is the inverse CAPE ratio minus the interest rate. And the excess KPO is around 4% in the US. 4% a year for long term. The stock market should still outperform fixed income investments. It's just not as dramatic as it has been. In history, the stock market is often a get rich quick investment, like it tripled in values over the last ten years. It then turns a little bit. You never know exactly when. I don't object to investing in the US stock market, but I think we should be more diversified,
across stock prices, real estate. Even real estate investments are okay. The best thing you can do is diversify.
席勒：是的，和債券市場相比，美國股市還好。美國的『超額KPO'，也就是CAPE比率減去利率得到的數字是4%左右。長期來看每年4%，股市的表現應該還是比固定收益投資要，只是沒有以前那麼好了。在歷史上，股市往往是一種快速致富的投資方式，比如過去十年股市價值翻了三倍之後就會迎來拐點，你永遠不知道具體是什麼時候。我不反對投資美國股市，但是我覺得投資應該更加多元化，包括股票，房地產等等。投資房地產也是可以的，最好的辦法就是多元投資。
Zhu Ning: Thank you so much for your time and for your insightful comments. I wish you a good day and a great new year.
朱寧：非常感謝您的時間，也感謝您的精闢回答。祝您新年快樂！
Robert J. Shiller: My pleasure, thank you.
席勒: 我的榮幸，謝謝。
專題：全球經濟如何破局？梁振英15分鐘重磅演講、多位省部級領導建言獻策