近日，海外知名財經網(博客,微博)站SHTFPlan.com的專家Mac Slavo發文稱，雖然消費者信心可以提振經濟，支出可以推動增長，但消費者不可能永遠支撐經濟。此外，製造業的疲軟也會打擊到消費者。
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雖然消費者信心可以提振經濟，支出可以推動增長，但消費者不可能永遠支撐經濟。工資跟不上物價上漲的速度，所以在某種程度上，「必須有所付出」。While consumer confidence can boost the economy and spending can drive growth, the consumer cannot prop up the economy forever. Wages are not keeping pace with price increases, so at some point, 「something has to give.」儘管貿易戰和關稅推高了價格，但密西根大學上周五公布的消費者信心調查顯示，美國消費者並沒有意識到衰退可能即將到來。消費者信心指數升至3個月高點96，超出市場普遍預期，仍接近歷史最高水平。儘管經濟增長放緩，商業投資和信心在持續的中美貿易爭端面前搖搖欲墜，但美國消費者繼續花錢，並在調查中反映出信心。In spite of the trade war and tariffs driving up prices, the latest evidence that the American consumer is unaware that a recession could be on the way is the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey released Friday. Consumer sentiment rose to a three-month high of 96, beating consensus expectations and remaining near record levels. Even as economic growth abates and business investment and confidence have faltered in the face of an ongoing United States-China trade dispute, the U.S. consumer has continued to spend money and reflect confidence in surveys.根據美國金融信息網站Market Watch，這種不斷蔓延的消費主義不會永遠持續下去。這一解讀對美國股市有利，因為它預計美國消費者將繼續以非常高的消費速度進入假日季。然而，這也與其它經濟指標形成了鮮明對比，包括製造業和服務業的美國供應管理協會(ISM)最近的調查，以及企業高管信心指數，後者在10月份降至2009年第一季度以來的最低水平。According to Market Watch, this rampant consumerism can’t last forever. The reading is bullish for U.S. equities as it predicts the U.S. consumer will continue to spend at a very high rate headed into the holiday season. However, it also stands in stark contrast to other measures of the economy, including recent surveys by the Institute for Supply Management of the manufacturing and services sectors and measures of business executive confidence, which fell to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2009 in October.道富環球顧問公司首席市場策略師Michael Arone對Market Watch表示，"我不確定，我們是否在這一水平上已經看到了積極的消費者信心和消極的商業信心之間的不同。在我看來，必須有所付出。要麼企業必須更有信心，要麼消費者數據可能會出現更大幅度的變化。"「I’m not sure if we』ve seen this disparity between positive consumer sentiment and negative business confidence at this level,」 Michael Arone chief market strategist at State Street Global Advisors, told Market Watch. 「From my perspective, something has to give. Either businesses have to be more confident, or you’re likely to see more rollover on the consumer data.」但也有人說，這未必是件壞事。正如Sundial Capital Research的創辦人Jason Goepfert在其推特上指出的那樣，以往的高消費者信心和低高管信心情況實際上對股市有利。But others say this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. As Sundial Capital Research pointed out on Twitter, previous instances of high consumer confidence and low executive confidence have actually turned out well for stocks.
經紀商TD Ameritrade首席市場策略師JJ Kinahan表示，短期內，美國消費者不太可能會放慢支出，減少消費。 「人們是有工作的，當他們有工作的時候，他們就會花錢，」他說。「進入假日季，我看不出消費者會放緩的原因，除非發生一些災難。」JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade said that in the near term, it’s unlikely that American shoppers will slow their spending and cull their consumerism. 「People are employed and when they are employed they spend money,」 he said. 「Heading into the holiday season, I see no reason why the consumer would slow barring some disaster.」但在某種程度上，製造業的疲軟將打擊消費者。But the weakness in the manufacturing sector will, at some point, hit the consumer.
嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)首席投資策略師Liz Ann Sonders對MarketWatch表示，儘管一些分析師急於將製造業疲軟視為無關緊要的問題，因為該行業在美國經濟中的作用正在減弱，但「領先經濟指標的指數依賴於製造業是有原因的。」這是因為該行業的乘數效應（Multiplier Effect，是一種宏觀的經濟效應，也是一種宏觀經濟控制手段，是指經濟活動中某一變量的增減所引起的經濟總量變化的連鎖反應程度）。她補充道：「製造業的疲軟往往會影響到消費者。」Liz Ann Sonders chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab told MarketWatch that while some analysts are eager to write off manufacturing weakness as inconsequential due to that sector’s shrinking role in the American economy, 「there’s a reason why indices of leading economic indicators rely on manufacturing. It’s because there’s a multiplier effect from the sector that filters through to others.」 She added: 「Manufacturing weakness often tips over into the consumer side.」 （完）
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