中國石化新聞網訊 據油價網2020年12月8日莫斯科報導，俄羅斯日前已暗示，俄羅斯可能已開始為全球長期原油需求的永久性下降做準備，即使是在冠狀病毒疫情大流行的破壞性影響結束之後。
俄羅斯財政部副部長弗拉基米爾·考利切夫日前在接受彭博社記者採訪時表示，「全球石油消費高峰可能已經過去。從長期來看，石油需求永久性下降的風險正在上升。」
在這一點上，考利切夫並不是唯一的一個持這種看法的人。他認為石油消費已見頂或將比此前預期更早見頂的觀點，正迅速成為一種新的行業共識，它將推動長期投資決策。就俄羅斯而言，這些決定至關重要，因為石油收入仍在俄羅斯國內生產總值(GDP)中佔相當大的比例。
目前，考利切夫告訴彭博社，俄羅斯財政部正在研究石油需求長期發展的幾種情況，不同程度的需求下降，但他沒有透露任何關於這些情況的細節。
目前，俄羅斯似乎還沒有明確的能源轉型計劃，儘管莫斯科今年早些時候發布了一份氫經濟路線圖，其中零排放的氫將成為俄羅斯能源出口的主要組成部分。根據氫經濟路線圖，俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司將在未來4年內開始生產清潔氫，而俄羅斯大型液化天然氣公司諾瓦泰克也在規劃未來的氫項目，以減少對石油的依賴。
清潔能源目前在俄羅斯能源生產中所佔比例並不大。太陽能和風能發電只佔總發電量的不到1%，作為發電組合的一部分幾乎可以忽略不計。另一方面，水力發電佔俄羅斯總發電量的四分之一以上，這或許具有諷刺意味，這讓俄羅斯領先於一些環保意識更強、有雄心勃勃的可再生能源計劃的國家。
儘管缺乏準備，現在似乎是開始準備的最佳時間。和其他主要石油生產國一樣，俄羅斯不僅受到新冠肺炎疫情的打擊，還受到疫情造成的石油需求破壞的打擊。與大多數國家不同的是，由於實行了有限的封鎖，俄羅斯經濟迅速反彈，儘管這些封鎖可能導致俄羅斯成為全球受影響第4嚴重的國家。
事實上，正是考利切夫最近在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示，得益於政府實施的措施，俄羅斯經濟的反彈速度快於歐洲經濟體，這些措施包括增加公共支出和一項外部觀察人士認為有限的刺激方案。考利切夫補充說，如果不是歐佩克+達成減產協議，疫情對俄羅斯經濟的影響將是微不足道的。這是其他歐佩克+協議參與者的看法，也是這個擴大的石油卡特爾上周同意從下月開始按照俄羅斯的提議，將石油日產量提高50萬桶的原因。
無論俄羅斯財政部正在研究何種情況，在可以預見的未來，石油仍將是俄羅斯的一種重要的大宗商品。在今年的危機中，莫斯科拒絕動用其1670億美元的主權財富基金直接向家庭和企業發放救濟款，而是選擇了減稅和對有子女家庭的直接資助，這並非巧合。
李峻 編譯自 油價網
原文如下：
Russia Braces For Permanent Decline In Oil Demand
Russia has signaled it may be starting to prepare for a permanent decline in crude oil demand over the long term, even after the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic are over.
「The peak of consumption may have already passed,」 Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev told Bloomberg in an interview. 「The risk is rising in the longer term.」
In that, Kolychev is far from alone. The view that oil consumption has already peaked or will peak much sooner than previously expected is fast approaching the status of a new industry consensus that will drive long-term investment decisions. In Russia’s case, these decisions are critical because oil revenues still make up a sizeable portion of GDP.
At the moment, Kolychev told Bloomberg, the Finance Ministry is studying several scenarios for oil demand development over the long term, with different levels of demand decline, but he did not go into any details about the scenarios.
For now, it appears there is no clear plan for an energy transition, although Moscow earlier this year released a roadmap to a hydrogen economy, in which zero-emission hydrogen will feature prominently in Russia’s energy export mix. According to the roadmap, Gazprom would begin producing clean hydrogen in four years, and Novatek, the LNG major, is also planning hydrogen projects for a less oil-dependent future.
Speaking of clean energy, it does not make up much of Russia’s energy generation right now. At a meager less than 1 percent of the total, solar and wind are negligible as a part of the electricity generation mix. Hydropower, on the other hand, makes up more than a quarter of Russia’s total electricity production, which perhaps ironically puts it ahead of some more environmentally conscious countries with ambitious renewable energy plans.
Despite the lack of preparation, now seems to be the best time to start preparing. Like other major oil producers, Russia has been hit not only by the pandemic but also by the oil demand destruction it created. Unlike most, its economy rebounded quickly because of the limited lockdowns, even though these likely contributed to Russia being the fourth worst affected country in the world.
In fact, it was Kolychev who recently told the Financial Times in an interview that Russia’s economy rebounded faster than European economies thanks to the measures implemented by the government, including an increase in public spending and a stimulus package that external observers have called limited. Kolychev added that were it not for the OPEC+ deal to cut oil production, the effect of the pandemic on Russia’s economy would have been negligible.
This is a sentiment other OPEC+ deal participants share, too, and it was the reason why the extended oil cartel last week agreed to start boosting oil production by half a million barrels daily from next month, which Russia proposed.
Oil will continue to be an essential commodity for Russia for the observable future, whatever scenarios the Finance Ministry is studying. It’s no coincidence that during this year’s crisis, Moscow refused to tap its sovereign wealth fund of $167 billion for direct handouts to households and businesses but instead opted for tax relief and direct support for families with children.