從2015年底開始,「供給側結構性改革(三去一降一補)」一詞不斷被各大媒體重複,那麼到底什麼是供給側改革?供給側改革為何如此重要?推進供給側改革要注意哪些問題?
就這些話題,周報君特邀中國國際經濟交流中心副總經濟師徐洪才撰文。雙語摘編如下:
什麼是供給側結構性改革?
What is supply-side structural reform?
我國圍繞「三去一降一補」五大任務(即去產能、去庫存、去槓桿、降成本、補短板)展開供給側結構性改革。
China is pushing ahead with the five priority tasks through supply-side structural reform-cutting excess capacity, destocking, deleveraging, lowering corporate costs and improving weak links.
供給側改革為什麼重要?
Why is it so important?
2008年金融危機以來,有效需求不足是世界經濟運行中的重大難題。表面上,我國經濟運行似乎也存在這一問題,但實質上,是供給側質量不高、供給結構不能適應需求結構,導致需求受到壓抑和外溢。供給側質量不高,已經影響到經濟轉型升級,阻礙了內生經濟增長動力的形成。
Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, one of the major challenges for the world economy is dealing with inadequate effective demand. The Chinese economy is facing this issue as well, but the essence of the problem is that the quality of the supply does not satisfy the demand. The supply side's poor quality has impeded China's plans for economic transformation, upgrading, and growth.
正確理解供給側改革
Correct comprehension
一些人把「去產能」簡單理解為「去產量」,實際上在「產能過剩」和「開工不足」的情況下,行政性減產並無實際意義,當產量下降導致價格上漲,落後產能就會死灰復燃。
Some people mistake 「cutting excess capacity」 as 「cutting output.」 Government orders to cut excess capacity could be meaningless under certain circumstances-when prices rise because of drops in output, industries will naturally put their shut-down production capacity into operation again.
政府作用在於制定能源資源消耗、汙染物排放和安全標準,在標準面前人人平等,使不達標的企業退出市場,讓市場優勝劣汰機制自動發揮作用。
The government should instead formulate standards concerning energy and resource consumption, pollution and workshop safety. The government should also ensure that everyone adheres to the same standards, order the termination of firms which fail to obey the standards and let the market play its role.
尋求重點突破
Seeking breakthroughs in key sectors
總體上,我贊成對經濟形勢未來走勢判斷是L型的,是沒有問題的,這是基於目前國情和現實經濟格局做出的科學判斷。但是我們通過推進供給側結構性改革釋放改革紅利,其實我覺得這方面潛力還是很大的。
China's economic growth will follow an L-shape trend, which is in line with the current national condition and economic structure. However, we can unleash more potential by advancing supply-side structural reform.
如果中國企業在質量的標準、安全的標準,市場的標準有所提高,供給側的質量有所提升,少進口一點,比如說少進口100億美元,就可以拉動GDP增長0.1個百分點。再比如在重化工、精細化工領域,我們產品質量不好,需要大量進口,每年要花五六千億美元進口。每年晶片這一項就要花兩千億美元進口。要引領經濟發展新常態,要向產業中高端邁進,應該在供給側某些重點領域進行突破。
If Chinese firms can achieve breakthroughs in product safety and quality, less will be imported. For example, importing $10 billion less a year will push up GDP growth by 0.1 percent. Moreover, in the heavy and fine chemical sectors, we have to pay $500-600 billion per year to import foreign products because of the poor quality of domestic products. China must upgrade its industries and make breakthroughs in some key sectors.
槓桿轉移
Shifting leverage
在新的一年裡推動債轉股操作,從企業負債表來看好像在微觀層面企業債務率過高了,造成潛在金融風險,必須把企業槓桿率降下來,但是這又受到宏觀經濟的制約。要穩增長槓桿率必然會上升。因此,存在明顯的矛盾,這裡就涉及到槓桿轉移。
Debt-for-equity swaps will be promoted in 2017 because corporate debt ratio is too high, which may intensify potential financial risks. Corporate leverage ratios must be lowered. However, as China strives to stabilize growth, the leverage ratio of the entire economy will inevitably rise. Therefore, the transfer of leverage is needed.
一方面,從宏觀層面,公共部門、政府要加槓桿,從微觀層面,居民也要加槓桿。另一方面,通過把企業債權變成股權,同時引進新的戰略投資者,優化產權結構、公司治理結構,建立中長期激勵機制,這些都是2017年改革的重點領域。
On one hand, both the public sector, the government and residents need to increase leverage; on the other hand, businesses will be better off through debt-for-equity swaps, as the scheme will help introduce new strategic investors, improve the ownership and corporate governance structure, and establish medium and long-term incentive mechanisms—all of which are key areas for reform in 2017.
市場化手段
Market-oriented measures
在供給側結構性改革過程中,因行政手段、政府主導往往有意無意地被強化,行政手段見效快,用起來順手,但由於缺乏市場機制約束,一陣風過後就會強勁反彈。
During the reform process, administrative measures are emphasized because they can produce rapid results and are easy to use. But without the existence of market-oriented schemes, these measures will soon lose effectiveness.
我們要防止一種傾向,將傳統的行政幹預微觀經濟事務視為供給側結構性改革,這是有失偏頗的。在目前市場機制還很不完善的情況下,政府要積極引導、培育市場機制,來解決供給側結構不合理和供給質量比較低的問題,最終落腳點還是要讓市場在資源配置中發揮決定性作用。
We must stop using administrative intervention on micro economic affairs as a way to advance supply-side structural reform. It is reasonable for the government to guide and nurture market schemes in order to solve problems caused by poor quality of the supply side. However, the ultimate goal should be to make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation.