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洛杉磯 一項非凡的實驗正在進行
In Los Angeles, a remarkable experiment is under way.
面向牆 要不然給你戴上手銬
Face the wall, face the wall before I put you in handcuffs.
警方想在犯罪發生前便做出預測
The police are trying to predict crime before it even happens.
這能讓我們預先知道
It actually gives us a forecast about
未來十二小時內最可能發生犯罪的區域
where crime is most likely to happen in the next 12 hours.
在倫敦金融城
In the City of London,
一位科學家出身的商人
this scientist-turned-trader
相信他找到了運用數學
believes he's found the secret of
賺入萬貫錢財的秘訣
making millions, with maths.
數據應用的潛能無可限量
The potential to do things with data is fantastic,
無可限量
fantastic.
在南非
And in South Africa,
這位天文學家
this star-gazer
準備通過聆聽每一顆恆星的信號
has set out to catalogue the entire cosmos,
來為整個宇宙編制星表
by listening to every single star.
將這些不同領域聯繫起來的
What unites these different worlds
正是日益激增的數據
is an explosion in data.
數據量非常龐大 而且在不斷變化
The volume of it, the dynamic nature of the data
它正在改變著我們的生活方式
is changing how we live our lives.
總咖啡產量
總咖啡產量
總咖啡產量
總咖啡產量
全球產量百分比
巴西
越南
印度尼西亞
哥倫比亞
衣索比亞
過去幾年間
In just the last few years,
我們所創造出的數據
we've produced more data
已超過人類歷史中的數據總量
than in all of human history.
美分每磅
美分每磅
美分每磅
世界咖啡價格
科
納
咖
啡
阿
拉
比
卡
咖
啡
羅
布
斯
塔
咖
啡
本片中 我們將跟隨這些數據挖掘者
In this film, we follow the people who are mining this data.
數據即將成為21世紀最強大的
It's set to become one of the greatest sources of power
南十字座α
南十字座β
南十字座δ
南十字座γ
一種力量
in the 21st century.
地平線
大數據時代
清晨六點
6am,
洛杉磯
Los Angeles.
福德希爾警局的輪班開始了
The start of shift in the Foothill division.
在洛城警局
Officer Steve Nunes,
已有12年警齡的史蒂夫·努涅斯警員
a 12-year-veteran of the LAPD,
和他的搭檔丹尼·弗雷澤出發去巡邏
and his partner Danny Fraser head out to patrol.
我們位處洛杉磯市中心以北
Right now, we're north of Los Angeles,
聖費爾南多谷地區
downtown Los Angeles, in the San Fernando Valley area.
他們的轄區是洛城治安最差的街區之一
Their beat is one of LA's toughest neighbourhoods.
這個區有許多飛車黨 即飛車搶劫
There's a lot of BFMVs, burglary from motor vehicles.
很多搶劫案
There's a lot of robberies,
還有很多幫派和販毒活動
there's a lot of gang and narcotic activity over here.
有很多人販賣毒品
There's a lot of people selling drugs.
這個地區的黑幫叫"男孩幫"
The gang that's in this area are called the Project Boys.
是個西班牙裔幫派
They're a Hispanic gang.
儘管他們經驗豐富
Despite their experience
對街區也非常熟悉
and intimate knowledge of the neighbourhood,
他們今天的巡邏
today, their patrol
卻由一個計算機算法控制
is being controlled by a computer algorithm.
我其實不是很高興
You know, I wasn't really too happy about it,
我是名警察
you know, specially as a police officer
我們所有的訓練 就是為了幹這一行
you know, we kind of go off of what we know from our training.
我們其實不太高興 讓一部計算機
We weren't too happy about a computer telling us
告訴我們去哪裡執勤
where we need to do our police work
要開往哪片地區
and what area we need to drive around.
史蒂夫和丹尼正在參與一場開創性的實驗
Steve and Danny are part of a ground-breaking trial.
運用一個方程
An equation is being used
來預測他們執勤期間哪裡會發生犯罪
to predict where crime will occur on their watch.
我看到有人在洗衣店前遊蕩
I saw some people hanging out by the laundry,
那間小洗衣店
like the little laundry.
看到路口了
I can see the corner.
在這停車吧
All right, let's stop.
如果預測準確
If its predictions are correct,
這套系統將在洛城全面推行
the system will be rolled out across all LA.
-站住 別動 -站住
- Hey, stop, yeah, stop. - Stop.
雙手抱頭
Put your hands on your head.
這套計算機算法
And the computer algorithm
將成為史蒂夫日常工作的一部分
will become a routine part of Steve's working life.
雙腿張開 向前看
Spread your feet, face forward.
-身上有東西嗎 -別動
- Have anything on you? - Stop moving.
面向牆 要不然給你戴上手銬
Face the wall, face the wall before I put you in handcuffs.
你也是"男孩幫"的人嗎
You a Project Boy too or no?
預測犯罪的雄心
The ambition to predict crime
誕生於一次非同尋常的合作
was born out of a remarkable collaboration
合作方是洛杉磯警局
between the LAPD...
以及加州大學
and the University of California.
傑夫·布蘭丁漢姆也許
Jeff Brantingham might seem
不像一名打擊犯罪的鬥士
an unlikely crime fighter.
作為人類學教授
A professor of anthropology,
他是研究中國偏遠地區狩獵部落的專家
he is an expert on remote hunter-gatherer tribes in China,
但是他相信
but he's convinced
從中國偏遠地區到黑幫聚集地洛城
that from remote China to gangland LA,
所有人類行為遠比你想像的
all human behaviour is far more predictable
更容易預測
than you might like to believe.
我們都以為能控制自己的行為
We all like to think that we are in control of everything,
但實際上我們的行為都規律可循
but in fact all of our behaviour is very regular,
傑夫·布蘭丁漢姆教授
加利福尼亞大學洛杉磯分校
模式很固定 這往往讓我們驚訝
very patterned in ways that is often frightening to us.
不法之徒也一樣
Offenders are no different.
他們也不斷重複地做著相同的事
They do exactly the same things over and over and over again,
他們的犯罪模式
and their criminal offending patterns
也會從他們有規律的行為中顯現出來
emerge right out of that regularity of their behaviour.
傑夫認為
Jeff believed
他能在洛杉磯警局八十年多年來
he could find repeating patterns of criminal behaviour
一千三百萬宗犯罪記錄中
in the LAPD's vast dataset -
發現重複的犯罪行為模式
13 million crimes recorded over 80 years.
洛杉磯警局擁有大量數據
The LAPD have droves and droves of data
記錄著犯罪發生的時間和地點
about where and when crimes have been occurring.
它包含了許多有挖掘價值的信息
It represents a treasure trove of potential information
能讓我們了解犯罪的本質
for understanding the nature of crime.
洛城警局已開始利用犯罪數據
The LAPD already use their crime data
分析出犯罪高發地點
to identify hotspots of crime,
但這只能說明某處曾經發生犯罪
but that only tells them where crime has already struck.
我們已經掌握如何分析地圖上的標記
We've gotten very good at looking at dots on a map,
肖恩·馬林諾斯基警長
洛杉磯警察局
知道哪裡發生過犯罪
and where, where crime has occurred
然而問題在於
and the problem with that is
有時你會先入為主
that, sometimes, you're making an assumption
今天和昨天的情況一樣
that today is the same as yesterday.
傑夫·布蘭丁漢姆打算嘗試一個更大膽
Jeff Brantingham planned to do something more radical
更有效的方式
and more useful
那就是預測未來
predict the future.
他相信可以利用犯罪數據中的模式
He believed he could use patterns in the crime data
預測可能發生犯罪的時間與地點
to predict where and when crime was likely to occur.
我們一直通過大自然中的規律作出預測
We've long used the patterns in nature to make predictions.
通過日落西沉
From the setting sun,
我們了解到新的一天何時到來
we learned when to expect the new day.
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