中國石化新聞網訊 據今日油價1月6日報導，美國石油行業最糟糕的時期似乎已經結束。然而，達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行(Dallas Fed) 最新的行業調查顯示，石油生產商高管們正帶著謹慎的樂觀情緒步入新年。儘管石油和天然氣在2020年第四季度有所改善，但1/3的石油生產商們預計，在2020年災難性的大幅削減預算後，今年的資本支出只會小幅增加。14%的石油生產商們預計，2021年會大幅削減開支。有趣的是，在達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的調查中，還有14%的受訪者預計，支出將大幅增加。
這些結果顯示，石油市場喜憂參半，原油產量剛剛開始恢復。美國能源信息署（EIA)最新一周報告估計，原油日產量為1100萬桶，較疫情爆發前的水平下降約200萬桶。
這是意料之中的。由於油價波動，美國石油產量在2020年四個季度中有三個季度出現下降，直到2020年最後一個季度才開始反彈，且未來復甦是加速還是放緩仍有待觀察，很大程度上取決於從現在起價格的走勢。
關鍵的頁巖油行業也呈現出喜憂參半的局面。一些人對其未來持悲觀態度，因為大多數生產商無法在當前價格下實現盈虧平衡。也有人持樂觀態度，甚至有觀察人士表示，美國能源信息署和石油行業故意表現得過於悲觀，為的是讓歐佩克+繼續減產以保持油價上漲。
雖然這些削減措施幫助提振了油價，但不確定性依然存在，因為不僅產量決定了行業走向，需求也決定了行業走向，且需求可以說是目前一個更重要的因素。正如《福布斯》雜誌的戴維•布萊克蒙(David Blackmon)在最近的一篇文章中指出的那樣，在需求方面，未來仍是高度不確定的。
當前，疫情仍在美國肆虐，疫苗接種的進度比計劃的要慢得多，這意味著，人們熱切期待的恢復正常生產生活的時間進程要比預期的慢得多，包括石油和天然氣行業。
因此，油氣行業在2021年可能會繼續面臨與2020年同樣的挑戰。達拉斯聯儲在調查中指出，石油公司的裁員將繼續，但如果油價穩定，裁員將放緩。要知道，2020年有40家勘探和生產公司倒閉，在債務總額達540億美元之後，可能還會有更多的公司破產。
但如果價格繼續改善，油氣行業前景將會改變。然而，業內對油價並沒有達成共識:接受達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行調查的受訪者對西德克薩斯中質油價格的預測在每桶30美元至70美元之間。當然，這可能反映出謹慎程度的不同，但事實上，即使是一個月以後，也沒有人真正知道油價的走勢，更不用說到年底的情況了。
美國石油公司，尤其是規模較小的獨立石油公司的處境仍然充滿挑戰。由於每天都有數十萬的新冠肺炎病例，恢復正常生產生活的進程被推遲了，全球最大消費國的石油需求強勁復甦也被推遲了。值得一提的是，亞洲的需求正在復甦，而且復甦勢頭強勁，這增加了出口機會。
最終，一切都將再次圍繞成本和競爭力展開，就像上次石油行業危機期間一樣。在油田服務供應商的大力幫助下，美國頁巖油公司上次成功地做到了這一點，並最終引領了美國石油產業的繁榮，使美國成為世界上最大的產油國。不久，將會有初步跡象表明2021年的發展態勢，以及油氣行業是否能夠從這場危機中強勁復甦。
王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
原文如下：
U.S. Oil Executives Cautiously Optimistic About 2021
The worst seems like it’s over for the U.S. oil industry. Yet executives are entering the new year with cautious optimism, the latest Dallas Fed survey of the industry suggests. Despite an improved outlook for oil and gas in the final quarter of 2020, the biggest portion of respondents in the quarterly survey said they only expected a slight increase in capital spending this year after a disastrous 2020 that saw hefty budget cuts.
The cautiously optimistic executives, however, represented a bit over a third of the total, with 14 percent expecting significant further spending reductions. Interestingly, the same percentage of respondents in the Dallas Fed survey said they expected a substantial increase in spending.
These results suggest mixed sentiment in the industry that only just started getting back on its feet, with the Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly report estimating crude oil production at 11 million bpd, down by about 2 million bpd from pre-pandemic levels.
However, that was to be expected. U.S. oil production fell for three of the four quarters of 2020 in response to oil price movements and only started rebounding in the final quarter of the year. Whether the recovery will continue or slow down remains to be seen and very much depends on how prices move from now on.
The key shale oil industry also presents a mixed picture. Some are pessimistic about its future as most producers cannot break even at current prices. Others are optimistic, and there is even a suggestion among observers that the EIA and the industry itself are deliberately being gloomier than they need to be in order to get OPEC+ to continue its production cuts to keep prices higher.
While these cuts have helped prices, uncertainty remains because it’s not just production that determines where the industry goes but also demand, which is arguably a much more important factor right now. And when it comes to demand, the future remains highly uncertain, as Forbes』 David Blackmon noted in a recent article.
The pandemic is still raging in the United States, vaccinations are going much slower than planned, and this means that the eagerly awaited return to normal, if it ever happens, will happen later than many hoped, including in the oil and gas industry.
As a result, the industry will likely continue to face the same challenges this year that it had to tackle in 2020. Layoffs will continue, the Dallas Fed noted in its survey, although they will slow down if prices stabilize. There could be more bankruptcies, too, after last year saw 40 exploration and production companies fold, with a combined debt of $54 billion.
If prices continue to improve, however, the outlook will change. Yet there is no consensus on prices in the industry: forecasts by Dallas Fed survey respondents vary between $30 and $70 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Of course, this may reflect differences in cautiousness, but it is a fact no one really knows where oil prices would go even a month from now, let alone by the end of the year.
The situation for U.S. oil companies, especially smaller independents, remains challenging. With hundreds of thousands of new Covid-19 cases daily, the return to normal is being delayed, and so is the strong recovery of oil demand in the world’s largest consumer. Yet demand is recovering in Asia, and it is recovering strongly, boosting export opportunities.
In the end, it will again be all about costs and competitiveness, just as it was during the last oil industry crisis. U.S. shale pulled it off last time, with significant help from oilfield service providers—and it ended up leading the boom in U.S. oil production that turned the country into the world’s largest producer. This year will offer the first signs of what is to come later and whether the industry would be able to recover as strongly from this crisis.